Guessing the bottom

[zico]

367 deaths today. Yikes.

Today's figure looks much more in line with what would be expected (figures are only for England, but they account for most of UK figures).
The average %increase in deaths for the last 3 days is 20% which is much better than the previous 3 days, where the average is 30%.
Surprising (and welcome) good news, much earlier than expected.
Assuming the methodology is unchanged for these 2 periods, there's a significant improvement, which means that a lot of the UK population were already taking their own measures to keep safe, about 2 weeks ahead of the government advice/action.
Lockdowns in Lombardy began around 21st February, so if a large proportion of the UK population modified their behaviour from that time, we'd expect the reduction in daily %deaths increases to happen around now.

[zico]

Total UK figure today for daily deaths is 393. Still 21% increase for average of last 3 days, which is very encouraging.

[TheMotorcycleBoy]

367 deaths today. Yikes.

Today's figure looks much more in line with what would be expected (figures are only for England, but they account for most of UK figures).
The average %increase in deaths for the last 3 days is 20% which is much better than the previous 3 days, where the average is 30%.
Surprising (and welcome) good news, much earlier than expected.
Assuming the methodology is unchanged for these 2 periods, there's a significant improvement, which means that a lot of the UK population were already taking their own measures to keep safe, about 2 weeks ahead of the government advice/action.
Lockdowns in Lombardy began around 21st February, so if a large proportion of the UK population modified their behaviour from that time, we'd expect the reduction in daily %deaths increases to happen around now.

I was rather hoping the gradual effect of more and more of us WFHing, schools closing, self-isolating would have to started to ripple down.

I can only assume that the markets (for me that's the FTSE350 and the SP500) are as high as they currently are due to the massive amount of money that governments are pumping in. Especially in the States since their death rate seems to be climbing quite monstrously, and they seem a lot less organised than us regards this crisis, but the SP is now 2630ish compared to 2200ish a week ago.

Back to question of the market bottom - I was listening to some Stateside pundits yapping a few days back, and they were saying in these situations you often see a bottom, then a "relief rally", then another attempt to find the bottom. They seemed to quote a "multiweek rally", so perhaps (if this is correct) it is possible to be getting the markets dipping again in the next week or so. Crystal ball time.

Matt

[zico]

I can only assume that the markets (for me that's the FTSE350 and the SP500) are as high as they currently are due to the massive amount of money that governments are pumping in. Especially in the States since their death rate seems to be climbing quite monstrously, and they seem a lot less organised than us regards this crisis, but the SP is now 2630ish compared to 2200ish a week ago.

Back to question of the market bottom - I was listening to some Stateside pundits yapping a few days back, and they were saying in these situations you often see a bottom, then a "relief rally", then another attempt to find the bottom. They seemed to quote a "multiweek rally", so perhaps (if this is correct) it is possible to be getting the markets dipping again in the next week or so. Crystal ball time.

Matt

I was getting the feeling the US were expecting Trump to follow through on his "cure worse than the disease" and just let the economy open up again, but Trump has backtracked a lot since last week, and rather than wanting packed churches for Easter, he's saying the next 30 days will be critical.

I'd really like to see a proper scenario analysis (with numbers) of opening the economy back up & having coronavirus spreading through a country.

[TUK020]

My view is that the "main" mess now is in the States. Over 3000 deaths there now. We have just over 1400, and whilst we have a lower population, our population *density* is far lower than Stateside. For example the population density of Tennessee (I used to have a friend there) is about 10x less than the UKs IIRC.

UK cv19 reported death rate has fallen over the last couple days. So my current view is based on how much effect the damage from the US will have on us in the UK, regards our economy, market prices etc.

There is something wrong with your calculations. The land area of the USA is far bigger than that of the UK, so the population density must be lower than that of the UK. I just looked it up:

USA 9,833,517 sq km, Population 262.2 million

UK 243,610 sq km, Population 64.4 million

So they have about 4 times the number of people in about 40 times the area. I make than 1/10th of the population density. Your fraction is upside down.

Like in London, the problem seems to be associated with urban dwelling, particularly in apartment buildings, where close proximity is unavoidable. The typical Midwestern town in the USA has low densities of housing, whereas the major cities have a lot of high rise living.

TJH

All of the above is missing one of the most salient points - population density varies hugely across the UK.
Draw a line from the Wash to the Solent. Bottom right hand corner comprises 15% of land area of UK, and >50% of population (65% of income and 75% of capex)
Only comparable density spots in Europe are Netherlands/Ruhr & Ile de France. Maybe Milan? Madrid?
I am guessing equivalents in the USA are New York, Chicago.

Oh, have I just listed all of the major developing hot spots?

[PinkDalek]

Looks as I spoke too soon ...

I haven't read those articles but are you aware of this [locked] Foolish Resource, which pulls together a number of oft mentioned, erm, Resources?:

Coronavirus - A Resource
viewtopic.php?f=86&t=22293

As for Guessing the bottom, I have nothing to say on that front.

[EthicsGradient]

All of the above is missing one of the most salient points - population density varies hugely across the UK.
Draw a line from the Wash to the Solent. Bottom right hand corner comprises 15% of land area of UK, and >50% of population (65% of income and 75% of capex)
Only comparable density spots in Europe are Netherlands/Ruhr & Ile de France. Maybe Milan? Madrid?
I am guessing equivalents in the USA are New York, Chicago.

Just for geographical accuracy, that's incorrect. If you use the English regions as a rough guide, that would be SE England, London, and East of England - total population about 24 million, out of 66 million for the UK, or 36%, though it is about 16% of the UK area. To get over 50% of population in a compact area, you'd need to add West and East Midlands - 35 million. That would be about 28% of the UK area. Call it lines connecting Southampton, Stoke, and Grimsby.

[TheMotorcycleBoy]

It looks like we are heading for another bottom.

1. Big jump in US deaths
2. Big jump in UK deaths
3. The $2.2T easing from DJT was already priced a week ago
4. Uk (and US?) banks cutting divs

SP500 down 1.6% y'day, and FTSE350 down about 4% on opening

[redsturgeon]

Seriously I'd suggest just sitting on your hands for the next few months at least and not even bothering to look at the markets until the peak of the crisis is over. There are far more important things to consider at the moment.

John

[Bobwood]

Seriously I'd suggest just sitting on your hands for the next few months at least and not even bothering to look at the markets until the peak of the crisis is over. There are far more important things to consider at the moment.

John

Isn’t this a personal finance forum, and this thread called “Guessing the bottom”?

[redsturgeon]

Seriously I'd suggest just sitting on your hands for the next few months at least and not even bothering to look at the markets until the peak of the crisis is over. There are far more important things to consider at the moment.

John

Isn’t this a personal finance forum, and this thread called “Guessing the bottom”?

I know it just seems at the moment, even more than usually, nobody has the faintest idea whether the bottom is in already or we are down to 3500 or lower.

FWIW my guess is closer to the latter, but obsessing about the current fluctuations on a daily basis seems even more pointless than usual.

John

[vrdiver]

... but obsessing about the current fluctuations on a daily basis seems even more pointless than usual.

I don't think people are obsessing , just that a lot more of us have time to spend on the boards at the moment, and it does make for an interesting discussion as a proxy for how people feel the current situation will play out.

If you feel the thread is pointless, you are of course free to not read it (excepting your moderator commitments of course).

VRD

[BrummieDave]

I know it just seems at the moment, even more than usually, nobody has the faintest idea whether the bottom is in already or we are down to 3500 or lower.

FWIW my guess is closer to the latter, but obsessing about the current fluctuations on a daily basis seems even more pointless than usual.

John

So it's pointless speculating, but you think it will be 3,500 or lower...!

Sorry John, couldn't resist that.

[redsturgeon]

... but obsessing about the current fluctuations on a daily basis seems even more pointless than usual.

I don't think people are obsessing , just that a lot more of us have time to spend on the boards at the moment, and it does make for an interesting discussion as a proxy for how people feel the current situation will play out.

If you feel the thread is pointless, you are of course free to not read it (excepting your moderator commitments of course).

VRD

It's a fair comment, let's get back on topic now.

Ob guess... FTSE 3789

John

[redsturgeon]

I know it just seems at the moment, even more than usually, nobody has the faintest idea whether the bottom is in already or we are down to 3500 or lower.

FWIW my guess is closer to the latter, but obsessing about the current fluctuations on a daily basis seems even more pointless than usual.

John

So it's pointless speculating, but you think it will be 3,500 or lower...!

Sorry John, couldn't resist that.

I was trying to stay on topic.

But if you read what I said it was really 3500 or higher.

John

[redsturgeon]

OK here are some numbers to look at

https://global-macro-monitor.com/2020/0 ... -to-value/

Looking at capitalisation to GDP ratios for the US markets suggests a long way down yet.

John

[TheMotorcycleBoy]

OK here are some numbers to look at

https://global-macro-monitor.com/2020/0 ... -to-value/

Looking at capitalisation to GDP ratios for the US markets suggests a long way down yet.

John

Even with the 25 percent sell-off since the February 19th high, stock market capitalization-to-GDP remains extremely elevated, still higher than its pre-GFC high and at the 85th valuation percentile

I assume this is from DJT's turbocharging the markets with taxcuts and Fed rate cuts. i.e. not due to cv-19.

[TheMotorcycleBoy]

re. the market bottom and doom and gloom, I'm still buying.

The way I see it is this: I've spent the past 2 years buying stocks at typically higher prices. Many are showing a loss currently. If I continue to *periodically* buy, but the market continues to fall, then the more recently purchased stocks will show a loss, but not as much loss as some of my prior purchases. So no big deal. Also whilst I can speculate, I can't predict.

FWIW I put a limit order on MSFT at 2:28pm for $150. Missed it by $3 in the opening knife fall. Ironically iWeb still do limit orders for US stocks not for FTSE ones.

[bungeejumper]

If I continue to *periodically* buy, but the market continues to fall, then the more recently purchased stocks will show a loss, but not as much loss as some of my prior purchases. So no big deal.

I think that's what my old mother in law would have called running behind a taxi. The advantage of it, she said, was that it would save you more money than running behind a bus.

BJ

[AleisterCrowley]

I think there are worse tactics than gradually buying in to a falling market, bit of the old pound cost averaging and all that. It's sort of probing for the bottom (ooh matron)
Doesn't work if the market stays down of course, or if you need the money 'soon'