Guessing the bottom

[JDot]

So far........
JDot 4700
VKD 3450
TJH 4800
Thirty06 3432
Nostradamus 5000
Zico 4700
John 3789

Wisdom of the crowd FTSE 100 bottom stands at 4267

Just a reminder of the wisdom of the crowd theory below.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iOucwX7Z1HU

We also have a great discussion going on in this thread.
Thanks guys.

[CryptoPlankton]

So far........
JDot 4700
VKD 3450
TJH 4800
Thirty06 3432
Nostradamus 5000
Zico 4700
John 3789

Wisdom of the crowd FTSE 100 bottom stands at 4267

Just a reminder of the wisdom of the crowd theory below.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iOucwX7Z1HU

We also have a great discussion going on in this thread.
Thanks guys.

Sadly, the "great discussion" and visibility of the guesses both diminish the usefulness of the exercise as the independence of thought of the contributors is pivotal and they really shouldn't be conscious of the opinions of others.

Having said that, it's an interesting experiment - I'll take a stab at 4267

[AleisterCrowley]

4219, clearly

[londonwayfarer]

4009.34

plus/minus 2 pence

[flyer61]

3869

[PinkDalek]

Isn’t the answer 42(00)?

[TheMotorcycleBoy]

US payroll data predictions suggest more dips in April

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/co ... 16300.html

Presumably the effect will ripple out.

[TheMotorcycleBoy]

For the purpose of your exercise I'll go with 3450.

At the height of the financial crisis in 2008 the lowest closing level for the FTSE-100 was 3,665.

So you must think that this mess is bigger than that mess.

Doesn't it need to be inflation-adjusted since 2008? I've used 3% inflation, and get the equivalent figure for (3665 in 2008) to be 5225 in 2020.
Am I missing something?

I think this mess is bigger than that mess because the financial crisis was "only" banks over-reaching themselves, whereas this crisis is virtually all industries needing to stop for what's probably at least the next 6 months..

Note also many construction firms still at work. I'm especially pleased re. this, as hopefully the A14 will be mended by the time I next need it.

https://www.cambstimes.co.uk/motoring/h ... -1-6569817

A spokesman for Highways England said: “Staff are working from home where possible, with construction staff still attending site and the project still on course to finish by the spring.

Matt

[Bobwood]

We’ve already seen the bottom last week, it was 4,993.

[MrBarclay]

The crowd thinks we should sell and put it in cash
Keep Safe

[scrumpyjack]

I recall during a previous market rout, a chartist saying - We now get a clear picture of rising bottoms'

[BT63]

I think.....
FTSE 100 will hit bottom around 4200.
Dow around 15000.

However, I also think FTSE is already undervalued therefore I am not going to wait/hope that I can go 'all-in' on the lowest low, so I am accumulating via index funds with multiple providers, set to buy on several fixed dates each month.
Savings and multiple cash ISAs, including my wife's, are being cashed out to fund this.
Once the savings are spent, if markets are still low I'll seriously consider taking on some borrowings to fund continuation of the heavy purchasing.

I appreciate that using my strategy won't get me the best value for money (probably an average price 15% higher than the very lowest price) but I won't be left behind if FTSE only reaches 4300 when my target was 4200.

[bluedonkey]

I recall during a previous market rout, a chartist saying - We now get a clear picture of rising bottoms'

"Don't catch falling knives or pick bottoms."
But anyway: FTSE100 4180.

[TahiPanasDua]

Sorry, I can't resist quoting Sam Goldwyn again: "It's difficult to make predictions, especially about the future".

It's obviously a mug's game but it's only human nature to try.

On this occasion, I prefer to cost average in with VHYL and VWRL as a combined (confused?) current dividend and future growth bet.

I want to avoid the UK market as, in addition to the virus, there is THAT other issue lurking in the background. I also need to up my US content as I have been avoiding the USA for too long awaiting the oft prophesied US market correction (see my first sentence)

The above 2 ETFs are due, any day, to reveal their monthly update of yields. I surely erred when I calculated the yields yesterday as VHYL 5.6% and VWRL 3.1% ......pretty good and with oodles of diversity. What's not to like?

TP2.

[TheMotorcycleBoy]

If I continue to *periodically* buy, but the market continues to fall, then the more recently purchased stocks will show a loss, but not as much loss as some of my prior purchases. So no big deal.

I think that's what my old mother in law would have called running behind a taxi. The advantage of it, she said, was that it would save you more money than running behind a bus.

BJ

The thing is BJ, is whilst the analogy is quite funny, my reality is that is that my pension contributions continue to be made each month (and have done over the decades throughout each crisis) while folk on forums like this talk themselves out of investing their money for fear of paying at higher prices than at the bottom. So all I'm basically doing is the same as my (4 passive equity funds) pension is doing, except that I'm targetting the firms I like and for the most part those with the strongest balance sheets and cash flows.

An additional irony is that many sheepish folk may (I don't know for sure!) also hold stocks in BRK.A which I believe hold assets in a great many firms typically bought in just these "scary" times.

Matt

[TheMotorcycleBoy]

The above 2 ETFs are due, any day, to reveal their monthly update of yields. I surely erred when I calculated the yields yesterday as VHYL 5.6% and VWRL 3.1% ......pretty good and with oodles of diversity. What's not to like?

I dunno. I guess (I know nowt about those 2 ETFs), that if either ETF hold stock in any/many of the firms recently cutting divs, then the fact that the yields may be revised downward?

[TahiPanasDua]

The above 2 ETFs are due, any day, to reveal their monthly update of yields. I surely erred when I calculated the yields yesterday as VHYL 5.6% and VWRL 3.1% ......pretty good and with oodles of diversity. What's not to like?

I dunno. I guess (I know nowt about those 2 ETFs), that if either ETF hold stock in any/many of the firms recently cutting divs, then the fact that the yields may be revised downward?

Oh, absolutely right. I'm kind of hoping that any cuts will bring the dividends back to not much less than last year's levels given the drop in capital values. More importantly, I think, these 2 ETFs are excellent long term bets no matter what. I take the very long term view these days which may explain why I don't look at my portfolio in these chaotic times.

TP2.

[colin]

I think there are worse tactics than gradually buying in to a falling market, bit of the old pound cost averaging and all that. It's sort of probing for the bottom (ooh matron)
Doesn't work if the market stays down of course, or if you need the money 'soon'

Sound advice, too many people on this board seem focused on the ultra short term and need reminding that one buys risky equities with long term money that is not required for some years to come. If this situation is not past history by 2025 then markets will have been closed and we will all be living in a planned economy with money allocated according to need and only the essentials for survival will be available while most of us spend our summers pulling shrivelled organic turnips from the baking earth.

[tikunetih]

Sound advice, too many people on this board seem focused on the ultra short term and need reminding that one buys risky equities with long term money that is not required for some years to come.

That's volatility for you!

Someone starts out with the best of intentions to hold an investment portfolio for 30 years, barely glancing at a statement once per year.

Then, a load of volatility hits, and before you know it they're glued to their screens 20 hours a day, monitoring every economic data release and market move around the globe, and tick trading Dow futures with their pension pots...

It rarely ends well, except for the brokers and other middlemen trousering all the fees being generated.

Most investors would be well advised to refocus on the plans and time horizons in mind when they originally invested. Reduce/avoid the scope for making expensive mistakes under emotional pressure. Do little or nothing, and if necessary switch off their screens and not come back until the dust has settled. Keep contributing as they did previously if their income allows it.

For the vast majority, this will leave them considerably better off in the long term.

[AleisterCrowley]

A good reminder why it's usually a good idea to shift out of equities as one nears retirement. If you're 90% in equities a year before retirement and a COVID-19 event comes along.. it could ruin your day
I am (was) overweight in equities as a 54 year old, going by the old '100 minus your age' in equities rule. I think I was about 60%-65% equities, but my portfolio has been involuntarily re-balanced recently