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Babylon? TMF? Or You Tube?

Investment discussion for beginners. Why you should invest your money, get help getting started
Urbandreamer
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Re: Babylon? TMF? Or You Tube?

#312726

Postby Urbandreamer » May 27th, 2020, 6:08 pm

Ho hum, where to start.

AleisterCrowley wrote:Most professional 'stock pickers' don't do a decent job - the majority of professionally-managed funds don't beat the index in the long run.


Can we agree that many things might be meant by the term "decent job". If we restrict it to beating the index then sadly, while they have performed quite well recently, we must exclude ethical funds from doing or even trying to do a "decent job"!

AleisterCrowley wrote: but survivorship bias looms large


Survivorship bias possibly means more than you think that it does. My brother and I both made some investments on the stockmarket over two decades ago (possibly closer to 3). I DO have survivorship bias, he has failyer bias. We both lost money in a downturn back then. He stopped investing, it's a mugs game, I continued and, as I said, don't do badly. Possibly an example of Darwinian survivorship bias? There is much talk of scarring at the moment. ie
https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/ch ... g-effects/

TR, given that you are a writer I DO suggest that you read Babylon. Not for lessons in investing but to see how the book is written. It really could be renamed by aliens with big ears as "The rules of acquisition".
https://jamesclear.com/book-summaries/t ... in-babylon
I'd also suggest "Rich dad, poor dad" and "The Zuhrich axioms", though again not for investment advice. Indeed many might argue that the latter two should be avoided, but they are great when considering human nature with respect to investment / speculation.

As a sop to AC, you should also read "A random walk down wallstreet". I'm very dubious of a lot in it and just how globally applicable some of the studies of funds investing in the S&P 500 are, but it is a book to read that provides some evidence in favour index trackers.

Ps, I hope that my writing isn't too bad for a simple post. Dyslexia causes me a few problems, though fortunately not with reading.

AleisterCrowley
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Re: Babylon? TMF? Or You Tube?

#312797

Postby AleisterCrowley » May 27th, 2020, 9:41 pm

Urbandreamer wrote:Ho hum, where to start.

[...
AleisterCrowley wrote: but survivorship bias looms large


Survivorship bias possibly means more than you think that it does. ...

Unlikely. I think it means " the logical error of concentrating on the people or things that made it past some selection process and overlooking those that did not, typically because of their lack of visibility." (Wikipedia)

Urbandreamer wrote: As a sop to AC, you should also read "A random walk down wallstreet". I'm very dubious of a lot in it and just how globally applicable some of the studies of funds investing in the S&P 500 are, but it is a book to read that provides some evidence in favour index trackers.
.

Gee, thanks for humouring me, with my outlandish ideas... I'm such a left field crazy guy :shock:
I'm not a great fan of "A Random Walk..." but it makes some good points.
The generally poor performance of managed funds vs. index funds has been covered by a multitude of other writers, and some old investor in Omaha whose name I forget.

Urbandreamer
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Re: Babylon? TMF? Or You Tube?

#312843

Postby Urbandreamer » May 27th, 2020, 11:52 pm

AleisterCrowley wrote:The generally poor performance of managed funds vs. index funds has been covered by a multitude of other writers, and some old investor in Omaha whose name I forget.


CORRECTION:

The poor performance of managed mutual funds that invest in the S&P 500.
I have not found any statistical studies on any other market and funds.

There can not be any statistical study of private investors because of the difficulty in finding/choosing the cohort (which may or may not be a reason to ignore the above).

/End correction

I suspect that you also mean Mr Buffet who lives in a small town (in Omaha) and who is also an investor. Trained and formerly employed by the man behind a former investment house. Mr B Graham author of two books on the subject, Mr Graham is now dead.

So, let me see if I understand you correctly. Are you arguing that it is actually impossible to learn how to invest given the example that I think you make?

Please note that I don't claim that either I or TR are likely to do well, but have you not just destroyed your own argument? If the student continues to achieve when his teacher is long dead, is it just random? Or for that matter impossible to learn?

To be fair Mr Buffer describes it as hard!

He has recommended that when he dies that his wife moves to something like 90% index trackers and 10% cash (possibly to avoid the effort or getting it wrong). Then again, is anything, I do mean anything, worth doing easy?

Pick your choice, baking cakes, sewing clothes, pottery, TV programs delight in showing the dificulty. When I started there were such TV programs on investing / speculating and it is still the case that there is enough interest to support books, mag's, podcasts and Youtube channels.

Seriously, as I think that I said or implied, if you just want stock market returns without the effort or interest, DON'T MAKE YOUR OWN CLOTHES. Or possibly buy a index tracker.

AleisterCrowley
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Re: Babylon? TMF? Or You Tube?

#312915

Postby AleisterCrowley » May 28th, 2020, 9:06 am

Urbandreamer wrote:
AleisterCrowley wrote:The generally poor performance of managed funds vs. index funds has been covered by a multitude of other writers, and some old investor in Omaha whose name I forget.


CORRECTION:

The poor performance of managed mutual funds that invest in the S&P 500.
I have not found any statistical studies on any other market and funds.

.

No, it applies in the UK, and globally
https://citywire.co.uk/funds-insider/ne ... t/a1277900

Eight out of 10 active UK equity funds have failed to beat the market over the past year as they grappled to win back lost ground from last year’s sell off...
Over 10 years, around three-quarters of UK fund managers have underperformed. But even this lacklustre record is better than that from sterling-denominated funds investing in overseas markets. ..

The picture is worst for US and global equity managers, with 92% of both lagging the index over the last decade.

tonyreptiles
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Re: Babylon? TMF? Or You Tube?

#313670

Postby tonyreptiles » May 30th, 2020, 1:49 pm

Urbandreamer wrote:
Ps, I hope that my writing isn't too bad for a simple post. Dyslexia causes me a few problems, though fortunately not with reading.


Thanks again for all of your insights. I'll be preening over this thread for some time to come.

With regards to your writing - and for anyone who is still with us at this point, here's the foundation principle of my approach to non-fiction writing.

We'll all be familiar with Mazlow's hierarchy of needs. Someone much cleverer than me has devised the hierarchy of non-fiction writing. From the bottom up, they are: Accuracy, clarity, empathy, authority and wizardry.

Most people try to nail the wizardry, fail to do so, and ignore most of the rest of the stages.

Start by being accurate, then make sure the clarity is sound and your copy is easy to read. If the reader has to go back to re-read something, the writer has failed. Empathy requires your writing to appeal to the specific target audience. Do they even care about what you are saying? Authority requires that you tell your audience something that they didn't already know. And wizardry is your ability to write in a way that has some artistic merit, while still satisfying all of the former criteria.

Looking again at your posts, I think you satisfy them all, especially the critical first four.

Thanks again.
TR

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Re: Babylon? TMF? Or You Tube?

#313672

Postby Mike4 » May 30th, 2020, 2:04 pm

tonyreptiles wrote:
Urbandreamer wrote:
Ps, I hope that my writing isn't too bad for a simple post. Dyslexia causes me a few problems, though fortunately not with reading.


Thanks again for all of your insights. I'll be preening over this thread for some time to come.

With regards to your writing - and for anyone who is still with us at this point, here's the foundation principle of my approach to non-fiction writing.

We'll all be familiar with Mazlow's hierarchy of needs. Someone much cleverer than me has devised the hierarchy of non-fiction writing. From the bottom up, they are: Accuracy, clarity, empathy, authority and wizardry.

Most people try to nail the wizardry, fail to do so, and ignore most of the rest of the stages.

Start by being accurate, then make sure the clarity is sound and your copy is easy to read. If the reader has to go back to re-read something, the writer has failed. Empathy requires your writing to appeal to the specific target audience. Do they even care about what you are saying? Authority requires that you tell your audience something that they didn't already know. And wizardry is your ability to write in a way that has some artistic merit, while still satisfying all of the former criteria.


Looking again at your posts, I think you satisfy them all, especially the critical first four.

Thanks again.
TR


What an interesting set of insights.

Thanks Tony!


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