Investing in house builders

[dealtn]

The housebuilding sector slump is continuing.. surely it's indicating that tougher times are ahead..?

With interest rates rising & wages failing to keep up with the increase in cost of living I don't see how housing market isn't affected.

If we enter a good old fashioned recession things may be very nasty for the housing market and builders in general.

I'm holding PSN and BDEV in my HYP but I won't be adding to my position in them.

And yet

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60938262

all a bit strange.

[Mike4]

The housebuilding sector slump is continuing.. surely it's indicating that tougher times are ahead..?

What evidence of a slump are you seeing please?

[scrumpyjack]

I can't see too much to worry about with builders. Their margins are extremely high and so can absorb quite a fall in house prices without getting into difficulties - lower profits yes, but still good profits. A 40% cut in Persimmon's divi would still leave them paying over 6%

This time they have strong balance sheets unlike in the GFC days when they didn't and so nearly went bust.

They have large unrealised profits in their land banks.

Demand for housing is substantial and increasing population and limited house building means the supply/demand equation will continue to favour them

Housing is most people's highest priority so will continue to be the thing first in the spending decision.

I may be wrong of course but I think the market's current 'wobbly' about builders is not justified.

Only time will tell but I will continue to hold Barratt and Persimmon

[dealtn]

The housebuilding sector slump is continuing.. surely it's indicating that tougher times are ahead..?

What evidence of a slump are you seeing please?

My assumption was he was referring to a slump in the share prices of listed companies involved in the housebuilding sector. Not a slump in demand for their product(s) which is much less obvious.

[vand]

The housebuilding sector slump is continuing.. surely it's indicating that tougher times are ahead..?

With interest rates rising & wages failing to keep up with the increase in cost of living I don't see how housing market isn't affected.

If we enter a good old fashioned recession things may be very nasty for the housing market and builders in general.

I'm holding PSN and BDEV in my HYP but I won't be adding to my position in them.

And yet

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60938262

all a bit strange.

It's not strange to me - I would fully expect the builders to better anticipate future conditions for the housing market before it starts to show up in official house price data.

That said, I am not predicting another housing crash. I don't think things are as crazy as 2005-7, but I do see some similarities between then and now. Back then, even as we headed into 2007 the market was going great guns, lending was loose, houses were fashionable, everyone thought housing was a one way bet. However the builders' shares peaked quite early that year and were warning that a crisis was brewing. Even as the BoE raised rates to cool the market it had the opposite effect and caused more people to pile into housing as they thought if they didn't get in soon, rates would move even higher and they would be left with a more expensive mortgage. I think that is what we are seeing now - people clambering move up the ladder in order to lock in the financing that is likely to only up up from here.