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Lottery wins rarer and rarer

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NomoneyNohoney
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Lottery wins rarer and rarer

#340450

Postby NomoneyNohoney » September 15th, 2020, 4:08 pm

The wife and I were discussing the UK Lottery. It seems to us that when we first started playing many years ago, we "often" got three numbers which earned £10, but nowadays it's increasingly rare.
My thinking is that, as people lose interest in the lottery, the prize money might drop, but the odds of getting the three numbers should be the same.
Are there any other factors I've not thought of, that might influence this seeming drought of winnings?

NomoneyNohoney
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Re: Lottery wins rarer and rarer

#340452

Postby NomoneyNohoney » September 15th, 2020, 4:09 pm

Lottery wins... Lottery WINS, for Heaven's sake...

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FTFY :) (chas49)

chas49
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Re: Lottery wins rarer and rarer

#340467

Postby chas49 » September 15th, 2020, 4:46 pm


baldchap
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Re: Lottery wins rarer and rarer

#340469

Postby baldchap » September 15th, 2020, 4:49 pm

In the beginning the odds of the big prize were 1:14 million

When they added the extra ten numbers a few years back, that increased the odds to about 1:45 million (what do a few extra numbers matter....)
I imagine the odds for lower prizes have also not worked in your favour.

It belongs to the Ontario Teachers Pension Plan. Probably better off putting your money in that :)

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Re: Lottery wins rarer and rarer

#340528

Postby servodude » September 16th, 2020, 12:06 am

With the extra ten balls your chances of getting 3 correct out of 6 approximately halved
- it was about 1:57 before and it's 1:96 now

C(6,3) * C(43,6) / C(49,6)
vs
C(6,3) * C(53,6) / C(59,6)

where C(n,k) = n! / (k! * (n-k)!)

-sd

NomoneyNohoney
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Re: Lottery wins rarer and rarer

#340719

Postby NomoneyNohoney » September 16th, 2020, 7:25 pm

Ah! That's the missing information that's so crucial - I hadn't realised they'd added extra balls to the draw. Now I know that, it's obvious why the drought has occurred. Thanks all!


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