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Moderna

Analysing companies' finances and value from their financial statements using ratios and formulae
TheMotorcycleBoy
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Re: Moderna

#410003

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » May 7th, 2021, 9:08 am

SalvorHardin wrote:Excellent first quarter results announced today. Completely overshadowed by Biden demanding that Moderna loses all patent protection for its vaccine.

Company forecasts $20 earnings per share for 2021, putting the shares on a PE of 8. I reckon that based on advanced vaccine sales of $19.2 billion we could be looking at eps of $25 to $28 per share.

Hi Salvor,

Help me out here, so does Biden demanding that Moderna loses all patent protection for its vaccine have to share their research and secret formulas etc.?

If so can they, MRNA, object and if necessary sue anyone they find in breach of any of their patents?

Matt

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Re: Moderna

#410005

Postby SalvorHardin » May 7th, 2021, 9:17 am

TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:Help me out here, so does Biden demanding that Moderna loses all patent protection for its vaccine have to share their research and secret formulas etc.?

If so can they, MRNA, object and if necessary sue anyone they find in breach of any of their patents?

Yes. Many countries have already said that they don't agree with Biden, preferring licensing.

The major problem with the global vaccination program isn't patents. It's bottlenecks in production and a shortage of skilled staff. Politicians seem to think that producing vaccines is as easy as making cardboard, whereas it has quite a bit in common with herding cats.

"pharmaceutical companies have called the decision by the US to back the sharing of secret recipes for vaccinations short-sighted, claiming it is understanding the production process that is the real challenge, particularly when it comes to the new breed of mRNA vaccines - such as Pfizer and Moderna - as well as the availability of raw materials."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-57004302

Moderna's CEO says he isn't bothered about it:

"Moderna shares slid Wednesday afternoon—alongside fellow COVID-19 vaccine developers such as Pfizer, BioNTech and Novavax—following Tai’s comments. Despite investors’ fears, however, Bancel said he doesn’t believe the waiver would “change anything for Moderna.”

The company has already invested heavily in its mRNA supply chain, which largely didn’t exist before the pandemic, Bancel said. Drugmakers interested in manufacturing a similar mRNA vaccine would need to conduct the clinical trials, apply for authorization and then scale the manufacturing, which could take upward of 12 to 18 months, Bancel said.

“This is a new technology,” Bancel told analysts regarding mRNA. “You cannot go hire people who know how to make mRNA. Those people don’t exist.” If a booster shot is ever needed to tackle emerging variants, Moderna would already have the ample materials to produce those shots quickly, he added."


https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/moderna-ceo-says-he-s-not-losing-any-sleep-over-biden-s-endorsement-for-covid-19-ip-waiver

Here's a link to the CEO's Q&A session regarding the Q1 results. I haven't read all of it.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4425423-moderna-inc-mrna-ceo-stephane-bancel-on-q1-2021-results-earnings-call-transcript

TheMotorcycleBoy
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Re: Moderna

#410047

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » May 7th, 2021, 12:01 pm

SalvorHardin wrote:
TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:Help me out here, so does Biden demanding that Moderna loses all patent protection for its vaccine have to share their research and secret formulas etc.?

If so can they, MRNA, object and if necessary sue anyone they find in breach of any of their patents?

Yes. Many countries have already said that they don't agree with Biden, preferring licensing.

The major problem with the global vaccination program isn't patents. It's bottlenecks in production and a shortage of skilled staff. Politicians seem to think that producing vaccines is as easy as making cardboard, whereas it has quite a bit in common with herding cats.

"pharmaceutical companies have called the decision by the US to back the sharing of secret recipes for vaccinations short-sighted, claiming it is understanding the production process that is the real challenge, particularly when it comes to the new breed of mRNA vaccines - such as Pfizer and Moderna - as well as the availability of raw materials."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-57004302

Moderna's CEO says he isn't bothered about it:

"Moderna shares slid Wednesday afternoon—alongside fellow COVID-19 vaccine developers such as Pfizer, BioNTech and Novavax—following Tai’s comments. Despite investors’ fears, however, Bancel said he doesn’t believe the waiver would “change anything for Moderna.”

The company has already invested heavily in its mRNA supply chain, which largely didn’t exist before the pandemic, Bancel said. Drugmakers interested in manufacturing a similar mRNA vaccine would need to conduct the clinical trials, apply for authorization and then scale the manufacturing, which could take upward of 12 to 18 months, Bancel said.

“This is a new technology,” Bancel told analysts regarding mRNA. “You cannot go hire people who know how to make mRNA. Those people don’t exist.” If a booster shot is ever needed to tackle emerging variants, Moderna would already have the ample materials to produce those shots quickly, he added."


https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/moderna-ceo-says-he-s-not-losing-any-sleep-over-biden-s-endorsement-for-covid-19-ip-waiver

Here's a link to the CEO's Q&A session regarding the Q1 results. I haven't read all of it.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4425423-moderna-inc-mrna-ceo-stephane-bancel-on-q1-2021-results-earnings-call-transcript

Thanks Salvor,

Sounds like you've been keeping up your research. I've been a tad sidetracked of late (first by Splunk, which I'll pass on, second by NVidia which is still of interest).

So if anything, Biden's announcement may well have provided an albeit short buying window they dropped to $147.50 yesterday. Looking at the chart alas the market quickly jumped in!

Matt

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Re: Moderna

#410244

Postby UncleEbenezer » May 8th, 2021, 12:09 pm

Is noone here watching the likely straw-in-the-wind of Rishi Sunak's Moderna stake (through his Cayman Island fund)? Private Eye reports he's taken profits north of $200m by cashing in 30% of his holding.

TheMotorcycleBoy
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Re: Moderna

#410479

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » May 9th, 2021, 10:19 am

UncleEbenezer wrote:Is noone here watching the likely straw-in-the-wind of Rishi Sunak's Moderna stake (through his Cayman Island fund)? Private Eye reports he's taken profits north of $200m by cashing in 30% of his holding.

Doesn't the recent, incredibly upbeat Q1 (i.e. $1.2B earnings just for that quarter), suggest that he could just as easily increase his stake as well as reduce it further?

If you are interested the link below should take you to their analyst presentation for Q1. They could well have a big future ahead of them:

https://investors.modernatx.com/static- ... 4133512154

Matt

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Re: Moderna

#426487

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » July 10th, 2021, 4:35 pm

Moderna work on a flu vaccine:

CAMBRIDGE, Mass.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Jul. 7, 2021-- Moderna, Inc. (Nasdaq: MRNA), a biotechnology company pioneering messenger RNA (mRNA) therapeutics and vaccines, today announced the first participants have been dosed in the Phase 1/2 study of mRNA-1010, the Company’s quadrivalent seasonal influenza mRNA vaccine candidate.

This Phase 1/2 randomized, stratified, observer-blind, dose-ranging study will evaluate the safety, reactogenicity and immunogenicity of mRNA-1010, Moderna’s seasonal influenza vaccine candidate in healthy adults 18 years and older in the U.S. The Company intends to enroll approximately 180 participants in the study. mRNA-1010 is Moderna’s first seasonal influenza vaccine candidate to enter the clinic and targets lineages recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO) for the prevention of influenza, including seasonal influenza A H1N1, H3N2 and influenza B Yamagata and Victoria.

“We are pleased to have begun this Phase 1/2 study of mRNA-1010, our first mRNA seasonal flu vaccine candidate to enter the clinic. We expect that our seasonal influenza vaccine candidates will be an important component of our future combination respiratory vaccines,” said Stéphane Bancel, Chief Executive Officer of Moderna. “Respiratory combination vaccines are an important pillar of our overall mRNA vaccine strategy. We believe that the advantages of mRNA vaccines include the ability to combine different antigens to protect against multiple viruses and the ability to rapidly respond to the evolution of respiratory viruses, such as influenza, SARS-CoV-2 and RSV. Our vision is to develop an mRNA combination vaccine so that people can get one shot each fall for high efficacy protection against the most problematic respiratory viruses. We look forward to advancing our core modality of prophylactic mRNA vaccines so that we can continue to make an impact on global public health.”

Seasonal flu (type A and type B) epidemics occur seasonally and vary in severity each year, causing respiratory illnesses and placing substantial burden on healthcare systems. The WHO estimates approximately 3-5 million severe cases of flu each year globally1, and 290,000-650,000 flu-related respiratory deaths. Approximately 8% of the U.S. population experiences symptoms from flu each year2. In the U.S., the estimated average economic burden of flu is approximately $11 billion per year3.

Current flu vaccines are only approximately 40-60% effective and their formulation is decided 6-9 months before the vaccines are intended to be used. Egg-based vaccine production, the process used for the majority of currently licensed influenza vaccines, also has the potential to cause unintended antigenic change to the vaccine virus. Moderna plans to explore potential combination vaccines against flu, SARS-CoV-2, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and human metapneumovirus (hMPV). The Company’s overarching seasonal influenza program will aim to evaluate multiple candidates exploring different antigen combinations against seasonal influenza viruses in the clinic.


https://investors.modernatx.com/news-re ... -study-its

the talking heads are all over it.

Matt

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Re: Moderna

#427961

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » July 16th, 2021, 6:22 am

July 15 (Reuters) - Moderna Inc (MRNA.O) will join the S&P 500 index (.SPX) as of the start of trading on July 21, replacing Alexion Pharmaceuticals (ALXN.O), S&P Dow Jones Indices said in a statement on Thursday.

Moderna shares rose 6% in extended trade after the announcement. The COVID-19 vaccine maker's stock has surged over 150% this year, elevating its market capitalization to about $100 billion.

https://www.reuters.com/business/modern ... 021-07-15/

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Re: Moderna

#428130

Postby SalvorHardin » July 16th, 2021, 3:34 pm

Thanks for that. I'm a bit behind on my reading!

Moderna has had a brilliant run this year. I've sold a few on the way up, reducing my holding to around 4% of my portfolio.

This isn't so much a lessening of my confidence in Moderna, rather I'm just being a bit more conservative in holding something which is outside of my circle of competence.

Every time I start reading anything beyond O level biology when it comes to Moderna's products and technology, I remember why I chose to go no further in biology and instead stick to Physics :D

That said I have great hope in the idea that mRNA technology will open up a huge new field in medicine.

My biologist friend maintains that mRNA technology will allow for amazingly rapid synthesis of new vaccines and other treatments, once it becomes mainstream. He calls it "Star Trek medicine"

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Re: Moderna

#428133

Postby Lootman » July 16th, 2021, 3:42 pm

SalvorHardin wrote:Thanks for that. I'm a bit behind on my reading!

Moderna has had a brilliant run this year. I've sold a few on the way up, reducing my holding to around 4% of my portfolio.

This isn't so much a lessening of my confidence in Moderna, rather I'm just being a bit more conservative in holding something which is outside of my circle of competence.

Every time I start reading anything beyond O level biology when it comes to Moderna's products and technology, I remember why I chose to go no further in biology and instead stick to Physics :D

That said I have great hope in the idea that mRNA technology will open up a huge new field in medicine.

My biologist friend maintains that mRNA technology will allow for amazingly rapid synthesis of new vaccines and other treatments, once it becomes mainstream. He calls it "Star Trek medicine"

Yeah, $286 today. I bought a few lots earlier this year between about $120 and $150 and then, like you, offloaded some around $180. Obviously not a great move in retrospect but then, again like you, what the heck do I really know about biotech?

This thing could be $1,000 a share by next year and, if not, I already have my original stake back.

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Re: Moderna

#428425

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » July 18th, 2021, 11:16 am

Yes, I'm very pleased with this one too. I've bought at $116 and $130. I've hung to every share so far, and they represent about 2.7% of our portfolio.

My only worry with MRNA is when to next top up!

Matt

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Re: Moderna

#428429

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » July 18th, 2021, 11:22 am

SalvorHardin wrote:My biologist friend maintains that mRNA technology will allow for amazingly rapid synthesis of new vaccines and other treatments, once it becomes mainstream. He calls it "Star Trek medicine"

Very slightly OT, but one of Cathy Wood's plays is "genome sequencing". I guess that's another biotech thing. I'd be interested in your pal's take on that. My eldest daughter is doing a BSc in Biological Science, but see's only just finished her 1st year (2.1 so far, so Dad's well chuffed ;) ). Perhaps I'll be picking her brains in years to come.

Matt

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Re: Moderna

#428455

Postby SalvorHardin » July 18th, 2021, 12:52 pm

TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:Very slightly OT, but one of Cathy Wood's plays is "genome sequencing". I guess that's another biotech thing. I'd be interested in your pal's take on that. My eldest daughter is doing a BSc in Biological Science, but see's only just finished her 1st year (2.1 so far, so Dad's well chuffed ;) ). Perhaps I'll be picking her brains in years to come.

From what I've been told (and can remember), Genomic sequencing is one of the many tools that will revolutionise medicine through "Precision Biology". I can't be any more specific than that as it's well outside my circle of competence.

It's the combination of biological techniques, computers, artificial intelligence, nanotechnology, 3D printing and others fields, to allow us to do all sorts of manipulation at the cellular level at very high speeds. Such as Moderna taking just two days to make its mRNA coronavirus vaccine.

Huge applications in personalised medicine. Even 3D printed meat.

This article of precision fermentation gives some good examples.

https://rethinkx.medium.com/precision-fermentation-what-exactly-is-it-7004eeaa798e


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