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Moderna

Analysing companies' finances and value from their financial statements using ratios and formulae
TheMotorcycleBoy
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Re: Moderna

#433890

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » August 11th, 2021, 6:50 am

88V8 wrote:
SalvorHardin wrote:...if it turns out that the mRNA vaccines need to be regularly topped up, that's a huge moneyspinner.

In the short term.
I wonder if in the longer term it will be a boat anchor.

V8

Hi V8,

Sorry to be slow! What exactly do you mean by the term? Do you mean this...

Something related to computing and technology that is regarded as cumbersome and ineffectual, often obsolete.

from https://idioms.thefreedictionary.com/boat+anchor

if so, is it an anchor for the human species, or for Moderna as a company?

thanks Matt

88V8
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Re: Moderna

#433939

Postby 88V8 » August 11th, 2021, 10:00 am

TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:
88V8 wrote:
SalvorHardin wrote:...if it turns out that the mRNA vaccines need to be regularly topped up, that's a huge moneyspinner.

I wonder if in the longer term it will be a boat anchor.

Hi V8.. Do you mean this...

Something ....that is regarded as cumbersome and ineffectual, often obsolete.

Hello Matt

Yes, it's probably more a car thing. A boat anchor is slang for underperformance, a heavy old engine that doesn't make much power.

In this case, if Moderna's vaccine needs to be topped up and AZ's for instance doesn't, that will come to be regarded by buyers as a negative in costs and logistical terms.

V8

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Re: Moderna

#433961

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » August 11th, 2021, 10:28 am

88V8 wrote:
TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:
88V8 wrote:I wonder if in the longer term it will be a boat anchor.

Hi V8.. Do you mean this...

Something ....that is regarded as cumbersome and ineffectual, often obsolete.

Hello Matt

Yes, it's probably more a car thing. A boat anchor is slang for underperformance, a heavy old engine that doesn't make much power.

In this case, if Moderna's vaccine needs to be topped up and AZ's for instance doesn't, that will come to be regarded by buyers as a negative in costs and logistical terms.

V8

I see what you mean now.

TBF I think that the "jury is still out" re. the vaccines. I don't think we'll be able to form complete judgements for another few years. For instance, my wife has had a single AZ vaccination about 3 months ago. But she still fell down with covid about a month ago (caught off the 16 yr old :roll: ). She was pretty rough for about 1 week, and still coughing too much IMO right now :( (Me after 2 jabs, wasn't affected). So AZ may help out but it's by no means perfect.

I think MRNA's strength is the versality of their toolchain personally.

Matt

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Re: Moderna

#435909

Postby murraypaul » August 19th, 2021, 12:06 pm

Reported today about vaccine efficacy dropoff:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-58257863
The Oxford-AstraZeneca jab, though initially less effective, offers the same high protection as the Pfizer-BioNTech after four to five months, the largest study of its kind suggests.

[...]

The Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine had 93% effectiveness against symptomatic infection two weeks after the second dose, compared with Oxford-AstraZeneca's 71%.

Over time, however, the Pfizer-BioNTech's effectiveness dropped while the Oxford-AstraZeneca's remained largely the same.


Writer is somewhat kind to AZ. It might be more accurate to say that the Pzifer jab, while initially more effective, offers the same middling protection as AZ after four to five months.

SalvorHardin
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Re: Moderna

#461305

Postby SalvorHardin » November 26th, 2021, 9:32 pm

It's an ill wind that blows nobody any good. Whilst the markets have taken a bit of a beating over the South African variety, Moderna shares are up some 20.5% today.

No surprise there. If there are going to be nastier virus mutations, then Moderna's mRNA vaccine technology is going to be in greater demand.

https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/11/26/why-moderna-stock-skyrocketed-today

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Re: Moderna

#467531

Postby SalvorHardin » December 20th, 2021, 12:43 pm

Another good report for Moderna this morning. Initial findings show that the standard 50mg booster shot of Moderna's coronavirus vaccine (mRNA-1273; what we're being given in the UK) works extremely well against the Omicron variant, increasing antibody levels by 37 times.

Asides from being reassuring for those of us (e.g. me) who've had the Moderna booster, it should be extremely good news for Moderna's share price. Pre-market is up 7% as I type this (bear in mind that it's a weak indicator due to a lack of liquidity before the market opens). From Moderna's twitter account:

"a #booster dose of mRNA-1273 at the 50 µg dose level significantly increased neutralizing #antibody titers against #Omicron.

https://twitter.com/moderna_tx/status/1471165103580065792?s=20

"Moderna Inc (MRNA.O) said on Monday that a booster dose of its COVID-19 vaccine appeared to be protective against the fast-spreading Omicron variant in laboratory testing and that the current version of the vaccine would continue to be Moderna’s "first line of defense against Omicron.""

https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/moderna-says-booster-dose-its-covid-19-vaccine-appears-protective-vs-omicron-2021-12-20/

"Moderna Chief Executive Stephane Bancel called the data “reassuring” but added the company would continue developing an Omicron-specific booster candidate “in case it becomes necessary in the future.”"

https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/moderna-mrna-covid-vaccine-booster-omicron-variant-51639996382?mod=mw_quote_news

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3781523-modernas-covid-19-booster-increases-neutralizing-antibodies-37-fold-against-omicron-variant

IMHO it's entirely possible that as COVID-19 becomes endemic, most people in the developed world are going to be given regular boosters every 6 to 12 months, which is a vastly higher level of demand than the flu vaccines. That's a huge level of repeat demand, an ideal scenario for shareholders

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Re: Moderna

#467543

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » December 20th, 2021, 1:52 pm

SalvorHardin wrote:Another good report for Moderna this morning. Initial findings show that the standard 50mg booster shot of Moderna's coronavirus vaccine (mRNA-1273; what we're being given in the UK) works extremely well against the Omicron variant, increasing antibody levels by 37 times.

Asides from being reassuring for those of us (e.g. me) who've had the Moderna booster, it should be extremely good news for Moderna's share price. Pre-market is up 7% as I type this (bear in mind that it's a weak indicator due to a lack of liquidity before the market opens). From Moderna's twitter account:

"a #booster dose of mRNA-1273 at the 50 µg dose level significantly increased neutralizing #antibody titers against #Omicron.

https://twitter.com/moderna_tx/status/1471165103580065792?s=20

"Moderna Inc (MRNA.O) said on Monday that a booster dose of its COVID-19 vaccine appeared to be protective against the fast-spreading Omicron variant in laboratory testing and that the current version of the vaccine would continue to be Moderna’s "first line of defense against Omicron.""

https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/moderna-says-booster-dose-its-covid-19-vaccine-appears-protective-vs-omicron-2021-12-20/

"Moderna Chief Executive Stephane Bancel called the data “reassuring” but added the company would continue developing an Omicron-specific booster candidate “in case it becomes necessary in the future.”"

https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/moderna-mrna-covid-vaccine-booster-omicron-variant-51639996382?mod=mw_quote_news

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3781523-modernas-covid-19-booster-increases-neutralizing-antibodies-37-fold-against-omicron-variant

IMHO it's entirely possible that as COVID-19 becomes endemic, most people in the developed world are going to be given regular boosters every 6 to 12 months, which is a vastly higher level of demand than the flu vaccines. That's a huge level of repeat demand, an ideal scenario for shareholders

OOI did you top up when the SP fell to 255-230 in mid-november?

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Re: Moderna

#467545

Postby SalvorHardin » December 20th, 2021, 2:09 pm

TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:OOI did you top up when the SP fell to 255-230 in mid-november?

I topped up, but a bit later at just over 258.

I'm getting used to the volatility. Moderna's share price goes up and down like the proverbial tart's knickers. It's not for the faint hearted :D

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Re: Moderna

#467555

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » December 20th, 2021, 3:15 pm

SalvorHardin wrote:
TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:OOI did you top up when the SP fell to 255-230 in mid-november?

I topped up, but a bit later at just over 258.

I'm getting used to the volatility. Moderna's share price goes up and down like the proverbial tart's knickers. It's not for the faint hearted :D

Well done. I wish I'd done so too. Been too distracted by day-to-day life just lately! :(

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Re: Moderna

#468203

Postby simoan » December 23rd, 2021, 11:48 am

SalvorHardin wrote:
...IMHO it's entirely possible that as COVID-19 becomes endemic, most people in the developed world are going to be given regular boosters every 6 to 12 months, which is a vastly higher level of demand than the flu vaccines. That's a huge level of repeat demand, an ideal scenario for shareholders

The only thing that would concern me is there are a number of other vaccines and over time margins will naturally reduce. A nice little earner though with an easy annual recurring revenue stream from the Covid vaccine but revenue from it will stop growing at some point, and possibly earlier than forecast. I'm not sure providing flu vaccines is a big money spinner, for instance.

As such, I'm more interested in the pipeline of future products as this will become increasingly important as the market looks towards post pandemic earnings. I've been running the rule over MRNA recently to go with my long-term Pfizer holding, but I'm just not qualified to assess the potential of the pipeline. What products are there in the pipeline with potential to be big winners?

All the best, SI

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Re: Moderna

#468208

Postby SalvorHardin » December 23rd, 2021, 11:59 am

simoan wrote:The only thing that would concern me is there are a number of other vaccines and over time margins will naturally reduce. A nice little earner though with an easy annual recurring revenue stream from the Covid vaccine but revenue from it will stop growing at some point, and possibly earlier than forecast. I'm not sure providing flu vaccines is a big money spinner, for instance.

As such, I'm more interested in the pipeline of future products as this will become increasingly important as the market looks towards post pandemic earnings. I've been running the rule over MRNA recently to go with my long-term Pfizer holding, but I'm just not qualified to assess the potential of the pipeline. What products are there in the pipeline with potential to be big winners?

All the best, SI

To be honest I'm not as well clued up about Moderna's products and research pipeline as I'd like to be. It's well outside my circle of competence / comfort zone, which is primarily commercial property, consumer goods, financials, media and railroads. I don't have the skillset to really understand what they are doing beyond the basics and the applications.

My main hope is that mRNA technology turns out to be transformative, opening the field of personalised medicine to a much larger customer base by combining biotechnology with information technology. From 2020:

"Moderna Therapeutics is working with Amazon’s cloud service to deliver a new class of medicines that apply messenger RNA, which is the “software of life,” CEO Stephane Bancel said Wednesday."

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/15/how-moderna-uses-amazon-cloud-to-produce-a-new-class-of-medicines.html

Moderna is a big punt for me. Lots of my "faith" in Moderna comes from conversations with a biologist friend who understands far more about mRNA than I could ever know :D

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Re: Moderna

#468211

Postby simoan » December 23rd, 2021, 12:19 pm

SalvorHardin wrote:
simoan wrote:The only thing that would concern me is there are a number of other vaccines and over time margins will naturally reduce. A nice little earner though with an easy annual recurring revenue stream from the Covid vaccine but revenue from it will stop growing at some point, and possibly earlier than forecast. I'm not sure providing flu vaccines is a big money spinner, for instance.

As such, I'm more interested in the pipeline of future products as this will become increasingly important as the market looks towards post pandemic earnings. I've been running the rule over MRNA recently to go with my long-term Pfizer holding, but I'm just not qualified to assess the potential of the pipeline. What products are there in the pipeline with potential to be big winners?

All the best, SI

To be honest I'm not as well clued up about Moderna's products and research pipeline as I'd like to be. It's well outside my circle of competence / comfort zone, which is primarily commercial property, consumer goods, financials, media and railroads. I don't have the skillset to really understand what they are doing beyond the basics and the applications.

My main hope is that mRNA technology turns out to be transformative, opening the field of personalised medicine to a much larger customer base by combining biotechnology with information technology. From 2020:

"Moderna Therapeutics is working with Amazon’s cloud service to deliver a new class of medicines that apply messenger RNA, which is the “software of life,” CEO Stephane Bancel said Wednesday."

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/15/how-moderna-uses-amazon-cloud-to-produce-a-new-class-of-medicines.html

Moderna is a big punt for me. Lots of my "faith" in Moderna comes from conversations with a biologist friend who understands far more about mRNA than I could ever know :D

Fair enough. So far it's a punt that seems to have paid off in spades! :) I'm definitely not looking at it for a punt though. I think I'm going to pass on the basis it's going into my "too hard to understand" drawer too. I certainly wouldn't hold it based on hopes about personalised medicine, I must've been hearing about that for the past 20 years and think we're likely to see successful deployment of nuclear fusion before then :)

Obviously, MRNA had a very good 2021 but I notice that every broker covering the company has downgraded it recently and they are not forecasting much in the way of EPS growth for FY22. They are then showing a large EPS drop in FY23 which would indicate they do not anticipate any new products replacing the drop in Covid vaccine revenue.

All the best, Si

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Re: Moderna

#468235

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » December 23rd, 2021, 1:41 pm

It looks like Pfizer has a similar Messenger RNA toolkit as Moderna:

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... NTech.html

.....The Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine also contains a harmless piece of messenger RNA (mRNA)....

I guess it's a question of whose IP is the best, and whose best able to deploy quicker and/or into areas of high demand.

Matt

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Re: Moderna

#468240

Postby simoan » December 23rd, 2021, 1:54 pm

TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:It looks like Pfizer has a similar Messenger RNA toolkit as Moderna:

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... NTech.html

.....The Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine also contains a harmless piece of messenger RNA (mRNA)....

I guess it's a question of whose IP is the best, and whose best able to deploy quicker and/or into areas of high demand.

Matt

The main thing is Pfizer is not a one-trick pony, as Moderna currently is. With regard to Covid it has both the vaccine (jointly with BioNTech) and the recently announced oral antiviral treatment (Paxlovid) for in-home use. It also has a more broad based pipeline generally and pays a handy 2.7% dividend. I wasn't really trying to compare the two, just to get an idea of what Moderna had up it's sleeve besides the Covid vaccine. If you believe the EPS estimates for the next two years, you'd have to assume not much.

All the best, Si

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Re: Moderna

#468255

Postby SalvorHardin » December 23rd, 2021, 3:17 pm

simoan wrote:The main thing is Pfizer is not a one-trick pony, as Moderna currently is. With regard to Covid it has both the vaccine (jointly with BioNTech) and the recently announced oral antiviral treatment (Paxlovid) for in-home use. It also has a more broad based pipeline generally and pays a handy 2.7% dividend. I wasn't really trying to compare the two, just to get an idea of what Moderna had up it's sleeve besides the Covid vaccine. If you believe the EPS estimates for the next two years, you'd have to assume not much.

Moderna lists the products that it has in development on the webpage linked below. I counted 25 products which didn't have the words "COVID" or "Flu" in their descriptions, including Pediatric and Cancer vaccines as well as "Systemic Intracellular Therapeutics" (whatever that is) and all bar three of these products are mRNA medicines. I freely admit to knowing nothing more about these projects.

https://www.modernatx.com/pipeline

I can tolerate the fact that Moderna has put almost all of its eggs in the mRNA basket. Moderna is my most speculative holding by far.

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Re: Moderna

#468315

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » December 24th, 2021, 6:21 am

simoan wrote:....I wasn't really trying to compare the two, just to get an idea of what Moderna had up it's sleeve besides the Covid vaccine. If you believe the EPS estimates for the next two years, you'd have to assume not much.

My bold. I'm sure that in the past you were fairly disparaging of the views of stockmarket professionals:

simoan wrote:
Heinous wrote:
simoan wrote:I wouldn't pay too much attention to broker price targets and recommendations. Studies have shown that they are utterly meaningless and following them works out no better than tossing a coin. In fact, my recollection is that they don't even beat the coin!

I agree on their value (or lack of); but they aren't meaningless, they're simply wise after the event.
If you had a time machine, broker recommendations would make you a large fortune yesterday. Meanwhile, a 'buy' recommendation, after everyone has already bought and share price is through the roof, is of somewhat limited value.

As I mentioned studies have shown that stockmarket professionals are no better at picking the best stocks than you could do yourself by tossing a coin. This is the study from 2004 I was thinking of where they couldn't beat a bunch of psychology students: https://www.researchgate.net/publicatio ... ock_Market

As for broker target prices, they are utterly meaningless unless you know the basis on which they are calculated and over what time frame. Even then, it's a guess isn't it based on so many assumptions about the future? And even worse it is a number to which you will naturally "anchor". Anchoring to share prices is one of the worst traps you can fall into as an investor.

All the best, Si

Are the EPS estimates to which you refer of better quality than broker recommendations ? Do these EPS estimates derive from wholly different sources, and are they not used in the preparation of the broker recommendations?

Matt

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