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Vodafone discussion

Analysing companies' finances and value from their financial statements using ratios and formulae
SentimentRules
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Vodafone discussion

#234413

Postby SentimentRules » July 6th, 2019, 2:49 pm

Well here we are again. Back to the shorting zone after the shorters covered the lows. Sub 100p is my target here as a shorter of this stock.

Can't find any institutional interest in Vodafone in this retrace. So I guess, short covering only looks like buyer interest in fund terms. Mostly just retail buying imo.

Well they do have to get ex dividend money converted from cash to reinvestment. Reminds me of the Elliot fund supposed interest a while back. Sucked all thr cash div back in and boom.

Can't see this being a buy until sub 100p and 0% dividend.

Looking at the etf market, eu and us super sector etc, I don't think Vodafone is a punt as one of the recovery stocks for the future anyway. ..there are a xouolr of gems out there. But not this. Div is still way too high for a debt ridden company in an ever narrowing Margin, highly competitive sector.

Anyone got a stock in view with decent fundamentals and low debt in a tight profit margin sector here?

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Re: Vodafone discussion

#234419

Postby tjh290633 » July 6th, 2019, 3:18 pm

You do remind me of the person on TMF who said he was waiting for Vodafone to fall to 100p and then he would buy. It did, but for such a brief intraday period that, if you blinked, you would have missed it. It appears that a sensible yield was not enough attraction on its own. 10% more had to be obtained.

It wasn't you, was it? But then I see that you only joined today. A provocative post for a newcomer.

I suggest that you find a dark corner in which to lie down, until the feeling goes away. With your interest in charting and technical analysis of share movements, I am surprised that you have not observed the recent formation of a double bottom and an almost 10% rise since the lowest point.

TJH

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Re: Vodafone discussion

#234422

Postby Alaric » July 6th, 2019, 3:36 pm

SentimentRules wrote:WSub 100p is my target here as a shorter of this stock.


As you may have noticed in discussions elsewhere on the site, those who advocate investing in stocks with high dividend yields regardless of recent dire recent price performance would still buy or top up Vodafone. I suspect they will be disappointed with the returns.

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Re: Vodafone discussion

#234429

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » July 6th, 2019, 4:08 pm

tjh290633 wrote:I am surprised that you have not observed the recent formation of a double bottom and an almost 10% rise since the lowest point.

TJH

Hi TJH,

From a relative newbie/doubter, having just squinted at the chart, when you talk of double bottom are you referring to the

123p at 23rd May
124p at 25th June ?

thanks Matt

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Re: Vodafone discussion

#234430

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » July 6th, 2019, 4:09 pm


SentimentRules
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Re: Vodafone discussion

#234434

Postby SentimentRules » July 6th, 2019, 4:42 pm

Double bottoms.. .

Ive seen as many fail as succeed. What your Not considering, is what's most important. Who created it? Fundamental buyers? Short covering? Retail dingbats?

I see no institutional interest there. Suffice to say, another stock for the traders. Including shorters.

With regards to your comments re:

1. You seem to think i dont do fundamentals? If Of course i do. But I suppose if you think black rock and Goldman Sachs analysts are crazy for consulting charts then sobeit. I'm crazy too.

2. 10% rise. You forgot the 40% drop.

3. Fundamentals.
What's changed since 230p?. Name the positives.

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Re: Vodafone discussion

#234437

Postby SentimentRules » July 6th, 2019, 4:59 pm

Alaric wrote:
SentimentRules wrote:WSub 100p is my target here as a shorter of this stock.


As you may have noticed in discussions elsewhere on the site, those who advocate investing in stocks with high dividend yields regardless of recent dire recent price performance would still buy or top up Vodafone. I suspect they will be disappointed with the returns.


Very much agree. Timing is everything. No problem buying Vodafone retrace for a quick 5-10% capital return. Even Carillion gave that opportunity on the way down. But these high yielders in the ISA forever lark... Will be very punishing indeed. Etf markets and such have given their views on high yielders for a long period now. Don't touch.

Not surprising in a marketplace of a decade bull and global debt twice as bad as 2008. Quantitative easing being increased again... that says it all.

The day of the markets giving free income 're capital loss v dividend return is long gone.

You sound like somebody, whether value or income driven', takes capital potential from the outset as primary.... Very wise indeed.

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Re: Vodafone discussion

#234459

Postby tjh290633 » July 6th, 2019, 6:50 pm

TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:
tjh290633 wrote:I am surprised that you have not observed the recent formation of a double bottom and an almost 10% rise since the lowest point.

TJH

Hi TJH,

From a relative newbie/doubter, having just squinted at the chart, when you talk of double bottom are you referring to the

123p at 23rd May
124p at 25th June ?

thanks Matt

Yes, those two.

TJH

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Re: Vodafone discussion

#234463

Postby SentimentRules » July 6th, 2019, 7:11 pm

Worth noting the double, treble and quadruple bottoms at 140, 152, 176 and 196 too.

Nothing knew in this one to suggest a hold. Well done to all of you picking up 5-15% cap return here though. Speed is need.....

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Re: Vodafone discussion

#234465

Postby monabri » July 6th, 2019, 7:47 pm

I'd buy at sub 100p because then it will be a good company worth investing in...of course at current prices I wouldn't touch VOD.

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Re: Vodafone discussion

#234468

Postby SentimentRules » July 6th, 2019, 7:56 pm

Agree monabri. I would like to see dividend at 0% too. BT needs to be same.

I'm only guessing but with such margins and competition now, I don't think funds want the dividend (debt), on the books. Too much of a squeeze on already high debt etc.

Another problem is the prices Vodafone are paying for deals globally. At the top of a ten year bull run so far, in a low interest rate, quantative eased market... top dollar plus

The Americans seem to be targeting it daily for two years lol. Probably want to break it up in the next recession . Much cheaper acquisition rates this route.

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Re: Vodafone discussion

#234470

Postby SentimentRules » July 6th, 2019, 8:38 pm

TJH

"I am surprised that you have not observed the recent formation of a double bottom and an almost 10% rise since the lowest point."

I assume you have observed the local double top last friday too then ? 're today and beginning of June. Also a swing there last January.

What's your take on the institutional money at this level? Little point observing double bottoms and ignoring localised double tops.

Do you think the moneyflow is increasing here Or bailing out?

Note the double bottom volume is pathetic. It only broke out into a decent amount by 134p. (Unless short termers in intra - buy or short cover volume was justified there)
All the volume hallmarks of retail jumping in when most smart money has got their fill.

Since the start of 2018 the daily 50 volume weighted average has never seen price break above it more than five points. One exception there was last December. 13 points.

They are catching momentum investors there when they should be treating it like vwap- short above it. Or take profit

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Re: Vodafone discussion

#234521

Postby tjh290633 » July 7th, 2019, 10:05 am

SentimentRules wrote:TJH

"I am surprised that you have not observed the recent formation of a double bottom and an almost 10% rise since the lowest point."

I assume you have observed the local double top last friday too then ? 're today and beginning of June. Also a swing there last January.

What's your take on the institutional money at this level? Little point observing double bottoms and ignoring localised double tops.

Do you think the moneyflow is increasing here Or bailing out?

Note the double bottom volume is pathetic. It only broke out into a decent amount by 134p. (Unless short termers in intra - buy or short cover volume was justified there)
All the volume hallmarks of retail jumping in when most smart money has got their fill.

Since the start of 2018 the daily 50 volume weighted average has never seen price break above it more than five points. One exception there was last December. 13 points.

They are catching momentum investors there when they should be treating it like vwap- short above it. Or take profit

I don't follow charts, except to observe long-term trends. Neither am I bothered by what institutional investors do. A lot of trade is bot driven. That seems to respond to every minor tremor.

You are obviously obsessed by what you think institutional investors do. Since many of them run tracker funds, they are not going to do anything than follow the market. You are talking like a day trader, rather than LTBH, which is where the vast majority of private investors are. Despite this you are dismissive of a clear double bottom, regarding it as a way to make a short term profit.

The factor which I have observed is the way in which shares which fall, relative to the market, often rise the following year, and vice versa. I make very infrequent changes to my portfolio, only when a share is taken over or its yield falls below my own minimal acceptable level. What I do is to reinvest dividends in the best way to meet my objectives with the existing holdings. It works for me and gives me a good return over the long term.

TJH

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Re: Vodafone discussion

#234529

Postby TUK020 » July 7th, 2019, 10:27 am

tjh290633 wrote: With your interest in charting and technical analysis of share movements, I am surprised that you have not observed the recent formation of a double bottom and an almost 10% rise since the lowest point.

TJH


Ah, but you haven't factored in the effect of the New Moon on Tuesday!
:D

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Re: Vodafone discussion

#234536

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » July 7th, 2019, 10:33 am

SentimentRules wrote:Not surprising in a marketplace of a decade bull and global debt twice as bad as 2008. Quantitative easing being increased again... that says it all.

When was it last increased in the UK? Surely August 2016 was the last time in the UK?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantitat ... ed_Kingdom

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Re: Vodafone discussion

#234537

Postby SentimentRules » July 7th, 2019, 10:40 am

TJH

I dont classify myself as any type. Not part of any herd.

I have held short positions longer than most LTH's have held buys. I have bought with intention to hold and exited that day. And so on. I just go with the market flow. Markets make you right or wrong. Not ones own ego driven opinion.

All i want is typically 10-20% per position. Charts help me achieve that within a few days to maybe 10 week period per share. Suits me. To be honest I have done so much shorting in vod over the last 18 months, it would now need to rise to 600p to match it, if I was to just become a LTH with it.

Sure I have observed the double bottom. And I have assessed it. It's just short cover . Not true buyers. Imo

Why did the previous double bottoms from 230p down , fail? Why do you believe this one is different?

As for fiund money. Sure. Mostly Muppets. But their money affects markets. Important.

Last Call..

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Re: Vodafone discussion

#234538

Postby Alaric » July 7th, 2019, 10:41 am

tjh290633 wrote: Since many of them run tracker funds, they are not going to do anything than follow the market.


It's obvious enough that Trackers and those managers who closely stick to a benchmark are going to have to invest in the components of an Index. But what of those funds that focus on a limited number of shares? Are there enough of them and do they control enough weight of investment that the shares they favour will have higher prices and thus lower yields? There seems to be Woolford effect on some prices in the opposite direction, so weight of money has some effect.

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Re: Vodafone discussion

#234540

Postby SentimentRules » July 7th, 2019, 10:45 am

Themotorcycleboy

I agree with you. Many just call it a big corrective retrace within a bigger bull. I think it's the start of a bad Apple.

The Dow is the one giving the last of market confidence around the world. But tech is the supporting column. That will be a mighty bubble burst. Then the house of cards follows

Most institutions don't care directly, about stock and share prices now. They prefer the options routes, etfs etc. Holding shares is just a price control technique. Their real money is made in other ways

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Re: Vodafone discussion

#234543

Postby SentimentRules » July 7th, 2019, 10:57 am

Lastly TJH

Your misunderstanding charts. As most do. It's real time fundamentals. It's telling me now, what institutions think of a company looking forward. It's telling me that because i analyse them correctly.

Give ten men a set of fundamentals on a company. Let's say Vodafone 230p. I remember most fundamentalists saying it's strong. Great buy. (Can't argue that. Evidence in every forum known to man). So I don't thi k the weakness is just technical investors.

What we fear, we scorn.. ..

Maybe just try to derive the little value, both ways offer, and make the most of it.

I would love to have no need for both fundamental or technical analysis. Be much easier.

But the lazy way only works in bull markets. (And for many it didnt)

Bet you I make more in bear markets. Simply because I see some good in all, and use it.

Last Call

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Re: Vodafone discussion

#234545

Postby SentimentRules » July 7th, 2019, 11:06 am

Alaric

"There seems to be Woolford effect on some prices in the opposite direction, so weight of money has some effect."

At the end of the day, end of all opinions and suggestions....there is only one thing that moves SP. Money.

Yet most ignore it. And the thing is, smart money operates before the moves. They know what's coming 98% of the time.

Info in markets is the crack cocaine of the streets for drug lords. But worth a billion times more. Watch for the money.... it holds the info on future movement.

Don't look at level 2. The BOB (book of bullshit. Or BOD book of deception ). Don't look at holdings etc. All worthless data.

Follow the money when its in stealth mode....


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