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Moderna

Analysing companies' finances and value from their financial statements using ratios and formulae
TheMotorcycleBoy
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Moderna

#375374

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » January 10th, 2021, 8:13 am

SalvorHardin wrote:
SalvorHardin wrote:I haven't come across a decent investment candidate, though this isn't a sector in which I have any great confidence in my abilities to analyse (and I missed Moderna). It may very well be that this is a technology that doesn't emerge from the labs with one company's patents nailed to it, but instead is applied across an entire industry more like open source software.

Following a conversation with my biologist friend, earlier this evening I made a small purchase of 250 shares in Moderna.

One way to get to learn about an industry is to buy shares in a company in that industry. Gives you a bit of an incentive. I know you're supposed to do the research before buying but sometimes an exception can be made, and it's not as if I'm betting the farm :D

Time to watch a DVD. ReGenesis is calling methinks...

Hi Salvor,

I wondered if there were any other things that attracted you to Moderna, other than their recent success in the Covid mRNA vaccine?

I don't know much about them and was wondering how different this company is to the likes of AstraZeneca, Pfizer, El Lily etc. who seem themselves to be described as "Pharmaceutical", where as Moderna are as "Biotechnical".

I've not really had time to scratch the surface, but merely to note the irony which is that their ticker code is MRNA.

Matt

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Re: Moderna

#375392

Postby SalvorHardin » January 10th, 2021, 9:41 am

TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:Hi Salvor,

I wondered if there were any other things that attracted you to Moderna, other than their recent success in the Covid mRNA vaccine?

I don't know much about them and was wondering how different this company is to the likes of AstraZeneca, Pfizer, El Lily etc. who seem themselves to be described as "Pharmaceutical", where as Moderna are as "Biotechnical".

Hi Matt

For me, a huge factor with Moderna is that mRNA technology is at the heart of everything that the company does.

All of its treatments and those still in the pipeline use mRNA. That isn't the case for the Pharmaceutical companies.

So if mRNA does live up to its promise, Moderna should have a very strong position. I just haven't a clue as to how big that could be.

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Re: Moderna

#375505

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » January 10th, 2021, 3:23 pm

SalvorHardin wrote:
TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:Hi Salvor,

I wondered if there were any other things that attracted you to Moderna, other than their recent success in the Covid mRNA vaccine?

I don't know much about them and was wondering how different this company is to the likes of AstraZeneca, Pfizer, El Lily etc. who seem themselves to be described as "Pharmaceutical", where as Moderna are as "Biotechnical".

Hi Matt

For me, a huge factor with Moderna is that mRNA technology is at the heart of everything that the company does.

All of its treatments and those still in the pipeline use mRNA. That isn't the case for the Pharmaceutical companies.

So if mRNA does live up to its promise, Moderna should have a very strong position. I just haven't a clue as to how big that could be.

Cheers Salvor,

I plan to look at MRNA in more detail sometime soon. I took a quick look at their wiki page and noted that their initial interest, seemed to be in stem cell research and cancer treatments. I put those two together and arrived at articles such as Stem cell transplants in cancer treatment.

I note that it was in about 2018 that the vaccine research research portfolio was increased, and at the tail end of the same year, they IPOd:

In 2018, the company rebranded as "Moderna Inc." with the ticker symbol MRNA, and further increased its portfolio of vaccine development.[9] In December 2018, Moderna became the largest biotech initial public offering in history, raising $621 million (27 million shares at $23 per share) on NASDAQ, and implying an overall valuation of $7.5 billion for the entire company.[31][32] The year-end 2019 SEC filings showed that Moderna had accumulated losses of $1.5 billion since inception, with a loss of $514 million in 2019 alone, and had raised $3.2 billion in equity since 2010.[9][23] As of December 2020, Moderna was valued at $60 billion.[33]

In March 2020, in a White House meeting between the Trump administration and pharmaceutical executives, Bancel told the president that Moderna could have a COVID-19 vaccine ready in a few months.[9] The next day, the FDA approved clinical trials for the Moderna vaccine candidate, with Moderna later receiving investment of $483 million from Operation Warp Speed.[9] Moderna board member, Moncef Slaoui, was appointed head scientist for the Operation Warp Speed project.[9]


Given that so far they are still making a loss, I wonder, how do businesses such as these get monetised? That is, turn the loss into profit, do organisations like our NHS, and in America private health care companies strike up contracts with them?

We are also aware of their partnership with AZN, so I'm curious as to whether that relationship will facilitate more of MRNA's mRNA products appearing in chemist shops.

thanks Matt

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Re: Moderna

#375512

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » January 10th, 2021, 3:52 pm

PeterGray wrote:As you say Matt, it's an RNA virus, not an mRNA one. However whether the genetic code in a virus is DNA or RNA is not really relevent to the action of mRNA vaccines. They have the potential to work against a wide range of viruses.

Wow. Do you know why exactly?

I've done a little bit of background reading and it seems that both research in both "DNA vaccines" and "mRNA vaccines" are quite recent developments, and a big departure from the "classic" vaccine in which (I *think*) one is injected with a dose of the real but weakened/dead virus, which provided substrate for the host to develop antibodies.

What I'm understanding so far is that DNA/mRNA vaccines some how infiltrate the host's (i.e. a person's) cells (not sure which) and directly turn them into antibody factories. At least I that's what I think is happening if I have interpreted this correctly:

One promising approach aimed at dramatically increasing the immunogenicity of genetic vaccines involves making them ‘self-replicating’. This can be accomplished by using a gene encoding RNA replicase, a polyprotein derived from alphaviruses, such as Sindbis virus. Replicase-containing RNA vectors are significantly more immunogenic than conventional plasmids, immunizing mice at doses as low as 0.1 μg of nucleic acid injected once intramuscularly. Cells transfected with ‘self-replicating’ vectors briefly produce large amounts of antigen before undergoing apoptotic death. This death is a likely result of requisite double-stranded (ds) RNA intermediates, which also have been shown to super-activate DC. Thus, the enhanced immunogenicity of ‘self-replicating’ genetic vaccines may be a result of the production of pro-inflammatory dsRNA, which mimics an RNA-virus infection of host cells.

from https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1986720/

Both DNA and mRNA vaccines are candidate vectors, but mRNA has generally higher efficacy over DNA based, with stability being traded off:

Another obvious implication for this is that, compared to plasmid DNA, which must enter the nucleus of a cell, the mRNA only needs to be present in the cytoplasm, which eliminates the additional cellular (i.e., nuclear) membrane that plasmid DNA needs to cross. On the other hand, plasmid DNA is more stable than mRNA, and each DNA molecule results in the production of multiple mRNA molecules, thus the theoretical advantages of one over the other boil down to the realities of the net stability of plasmid DNA versus mRNA in their final formulation, as well as the efficiencies of targeting to the desired cell, the transduction to the cytoplasm or nucleus followed by the efficiencies of transcription of the plasmid DNA (resulting in amplification from DNA to mRNA), and the translation of mRNA, whether transcribed from DNA or in vitro-transcribed mRNA, to protein (also resulting in amplification).

from https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6631684/

Matt

PS. Peter: I hope you didn't mind me quoting your earlier one in a different thread.

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Re: Moderna

#375598

Postby PeterGray » January 10th, 2021, 8:00 pm

Matt

What I was talking about was how the genetic material of the virus was carried. That can be either DNA or RNA. my expertise is limited here, but the point is that either RNA or DNA, injected into a cell can potentially lead to the production of proteins or further genetic material. That's how viruses replicate - taking over the mechanisms of the cell to create more of themselves.

You are right, as far as I know, that DNA and mRNA vaccines are a recent development. "Traditional" vaccines were things like cowpox for smallpox - cowpox is of little danger to humans, but since it is similar in structure cowpox is also effective in activating an immune response for smallpox (so milk maids tended not to get smallpox).

Since then a lot of vaccines have been inactivated forms of real viruses or similar viruses that are less, or not, harmful.

It's only recent molecular biology that's allowed the ability to design a protein structure that mimics part of the virus capsule, to then get the body's cells to synthesiss it, and so activate an immune response. The immune response has 2 parts - B cells respond to antigens (the virus, or mimic) and produce antibodies - that bind to the antigens and neutralise them. But there are also T cells that recognise the antigen and and kill infected cells, so preventing replication.

Clearly, as we've seen this year, modern molecular biology allows rapid sequencing of viruses, understanding of their structure and then development of mRNA signals that get the body's cells to produce harmless proteins that can activate an immune response. The implications are considerable. And should allow much more rapid and targeted vaccine production in future. Beign able to get cells to produce designed proteins may also have significant benefits in treatment of some other health issues.

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Re: Moderna

#376644

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » January 13th, 2021, 4:13 pm

Well, I bit the bullet on Monday and added a small position in MRNA. My conclusion was that

1. They should report big top line growth soon, with covid vaccine sales
2. They seem to be one of the leaders in mRNA

and buying when I did I figure there's potential for upside, given their December $178 high.

Matt

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Re: Moderna

#380805

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » January 26th, 2021, 8:38 am

TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:Well, I bit the bullet on Monday and added a small position in MRNA. My conclusion was that

1. They should report big top line growth soon, with covid vaccine sales
2. They seem to be one of the leaders in mRNA

and buying when I did I figure there's potential for upside, given their December $178 high.

Matt

After this first purchase (at $116), I then topped them up a few days later (at $130), effectively doubling my position. The market wavered briefly sometime since on reports of allergic response from one batch. But since then reports such as this below have induced another spurt of SP growth:

The company said in a news release it found no reduction in the antibody response against the variant found in Britain. Against the South African variant, it found a reduced response but still believed its two-dose regimen would provide protection.
...
Moderna said it is looking at whether a booster shot - either of its existing vaccine or of a new shot designed to protect against the South African variant - could be made available in future if evidence were to emerge that protection declined.

“The virus isn’t going to stand still,” Moderna President Stephen Hoge said on a conference call. “While the current strains appear to be well-protected by our COVID-19 ... it’s important that we remain vigilant and develop potential tools and countermeasures that would allow us to continue to beat back the pandemic.”

Moderna said it expects its current vaccine will remain protective for at least a year after completing the two-dose course. It does not expect to test a third dose until at least six months after that course is finished.
...
Jefferies analyst Michael Yee said in a research note it was encouraging that the antibody response of the Moderna vaccine to the South African variant was still above the levels that provide protection.

Yee also said the speed with which Moderna was able to design a new booster shot candidate was proof of the flexibility of the new mRNA technology upon which it is based.


https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-heal ... SKBN29U2N4

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Re: Moderna

#380813

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » January 26th, 2021, 8:50 am

Some info from zacks:

Moderator Message:
MCB originally posted a collection of charts and text from Zacks. The copyright status of this could not be established by me in anything like a reasonable timeframe, and having spent a now-considerable amount of time on this I am deleting the material. The rules are clear about posting copyright material -- ie, DON'T -- and it simply hasn't proved possible to reach a definitive determination in a reasonable timescale. MCB says that the charts and text in question can be found by clicking on "get free report" on this page (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/zacks-analyst-blog-highlights-moderna-104910484.html), but I have to say that mine hasn't showed up and perhaps never will. --MDW1954

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Re: Moderna

#381944

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » January 29th, 2021, 3:01 pm

From an earlier conversation:

TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:Ok, there's a lot of different routes to the report. One such way is go here

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/zacks-an ... 10484.html

then click the Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) : Free Stock Analysis Report link in the page below:

Image

If you are at all anxious, why not just replace the images of the report with guidelines that I've posted above? But let's keep the thread open for discussion.

BTW apologies, if Zacks have updated the exact PDF slightly since my posting - as the situation re. MRNA seems to be changing very rapidly.

many thanks
Matt


Moderator Message:
WARNING: having signed up for Zacks in order to try and get a definitive view on the copyright status of what MCB had posted, I now find myself unable to unsubscribe and get rid of all the cr*p emails landing in my inbox. I just get a green flashing "scroll bar", indicating progress, which never concludes. --MDW1954

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Re: Moderna

#381948

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » January 29th, 2021, 3:04 pm

Meanwhile this stock continues to motor:

Corinne Cardina: Speaking of big questions around the vaccines that we really need to answer still, there's a lot of concern, understandably, about the handful of new strains that are spreading. Many of these have been reported to be even more transmissible than the original coronavirus strain. Can you explain what we need to know about these new strains, how they came to be, and what we now know about how the existing vaccines will hold up against them?

Adria Cimino: Okay, sure. Well, first of all, there have been several strains or reports of strains that have come up. But really the ones that people are focusing on is the U.K. strain and the South African strain. Now, it's different from a mutation. Strain and variant are the same thing. Mutation is basically the change within the virus, the genetic changes that make a new strain or a new variant. That's what we're focused on. How do these come about? Well, researchers are saying that it comes from people who've had long cases of COVID where they've had COVID for a long time and the body just tries to fight it off and it gives the virus time to change and also to fight and to stay alive and to change. Then what happens is it gets transmitted to somebody else and there you have your new variant. That's what's happened. Now, both companies say that their vaccines will work against these new variants. Moderna's vaccine, for instance, encodes all of the amino acids in the spike protein. The spike protein, you've probably all seen a picture of it, it's that round thing with the spikes coming out of it. What that is, is what the coronavirus uses to infect. It attaches to cells and it infects. Basically, Moderna says that the new variant has a spike that is only slightly different. There is 1% difference between what Moderna produces -- the original spike -- and the new spike. They're saying that they expect it to protect. Pfizer also has had good news so far. It studied the UK's spike mutations in cell culture and said that it was able to neutralize it. Now, that doesn't mean that this could work in all future variants. Also Dr. Fauci gave a few words of warning yesterday saying the vaccines may not be as effective. Now this doesn't mean that they won't work. It just means that right now let's say they're about 95% effective, well, on these new strains or other new strains, even in the future, they could be a little bit less effective. This doesn't mean we shouldn't vaccinate. It means we should vaccinate because basically we need to get more and more people out there vaccinated so they won't get coronavirus and have long COVID and then disease and then have a new mutation, and new variants developing. That's really an important thing to get these vaccines out. Both companies also said that an update, if needed in the future, could be done. If indeed really in the future there was a strain that was very troublesome in the future, they could update their vaccines. Moderna even said that they would not need to do a very huge trial. It's not like it's starting over from zero. That's very good news. Of course, it still represents a challenge. If they had to do something like this, just think of, you know, the production of the vaccine, the time that would be needed, the logistics. It really wouldn't be good news if this happened right away.


https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/01/ ... vaccine-s/

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Re: Moderna

#381969

Postby SalvorHardin » January 29th, 2021, 3:39 pm

I've just found a very bullish article on Seeking Alpha, which goes into some depth regarding the applications of mRNA and Moderna's pipeline, including personalised cancer treatments, and how mRNA could become a "new class of medicine".

"There hasn't been an Apple, Google or Amazon of the healthcare industry before because illness and disease are harder problems to solve with technology than commerce or communication. Moderna could be the company that finally makes the breakthrough."

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4401300-moderna-shockingly-undervalued-can-be-first-healthcare-technology-giant

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Re: Moderna

#382015

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » January 29th, 2021, 4:54 pm

Thanks, it's a very interesting and detailed article. I'm about half way through it. Their pipeline has some breadth...

I will discuss the commercial opportunity for COVID later, but the next virus that Moderna is targeting is cytomegalovirus ("CMV"), which is about to enter a Phase 3 trial, after a successful Phase 2 saw the vaccine - which combines six mRNAs in a single vial - generate neutralizing antibody titers of up to 12-fold over the baseline geometric mean titer (GMT) of CMV-seropositive participants. Moderna believes that CMV is a $$2 - $5bn annual market opportunity (not to mention the humanitarian value).

Influenza (a ~$4.5bn per annum market), Respiratory Syncytial Virus ($3.1bn)("RSV"), Human Papillomavirus ("HPV") ($3bn), and Zika ($14.5BN) viruses are all in development, and it's the trial process, not the development process, that's holding up progress. Moderna is very confident that its efficacy readouts will be consistent with its COVID vaccine. Same process, same successful outcome, says CEO Bancel. Also on the pending list is Epstein Barr, for which no virus is currently available, and, in partnership with the Bill and Melinda Gates foundation, HIV. Truly breakthrough progress.

In total, Moderna's pipeline consists of 6 modalities, four of which are designated "experimental." The second "CORE" modality (after Vaccines") is Systemic Secreted & Cell Surface Therapeutics, which demonstrates the versatility of Moderna's platform.

The company has successfully been able create an antibody against the Chikungunya Virus, using an IV injection, and is working with AstraZeneca (AZN) on injecting the vascular endothelial growth factor ("VEGF") into patients who have suffered heart attacks to revasculcarise the heart, with profits to be shared 50/50 between the two companies.
.....
.....
Moderna will address solid tumors with its intratumoral immuno-oncology candidates too. mRNA-2416, expressing wild-type human OX40L protein - which attracts antigen presenting cells including macrophages and T and B cells - has presented safety and efficacy credentials in a Phase 1/2 trial, with increased levels of PD-L1 and pro-inflammatory activity observed, and mRNA-2752 is being tested as a monotherapy and in combo with AstraZeneca's Durvalumab. A partnership between AZN subsidiary MedImmune and Moderna involving a third candidate, MEDI1191, also involves AZN's PD-L1 checkpoint inhibitor. Another stated target is the lung.

Considering all of the above, Moderna's pipeline may look as impressive as any big pharma - the only significant omission being central nervous system ("CNS") disorders - which, in my view, makes a mockery of the argument that Moderna is over-valued at a market cap of $60bn.

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Re: Moderna

#382088

Postby MDW1954 » January 29th, 2021, 8:39 pm

Moderator Message:
Posters tempted to sign up for Zacks in order to get the free Moderna research, as I had to do in order to try and get a definitive answer on the copyright status of MCB's now-deleted post, are liable to find their inboxes bombarded with emails. See my warning message above about the difficulties of unsubscribing from these. --MDW1954

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Re: Moderna

#382109

Postby GrahamPlatt » January 29th, 2021, 10:14 pm

MDW1954 wrote:
Moderator Message:
Posters tempted to sign up for Zacks in order to get the free Moderna research, as I had to do in order to try and get a definitive answer on the copyright status of MCB's now-deleted post, are liable to find their inboxes bombarded with emails. See my warning message above about the difficulties of unsubscribing from these. --MDW1954


search.php?keywords=Spamgourmet

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Re: Moderna

#382942

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » February 2nd, 2021, 5:53 am

GrahamPlatt wrote:
MDW1954 wrote:
Moderator Message:
Posters tempted to sign up for Zacks in order to get the free Moderna research, as I had to do in order to try and get a definitive answer on the copyright status of MCB's now-deleted post, are liable to find their inboxes bombarded with emails. See my warning message above about the difficulties of unsubscribing from these. --MDW1954


search.php?keywords=Spamgourmet

You just email support@zacks.com or find the alert-preferences page on zacks.com and remove yourself there. Worked for me.

Matt

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Re: Moderna

#383316

Postby MDW1954 » February 3rd, 2021, 11:47 am

TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:
GrahamPlatt wrote:
MDW1954 wrote:
Moderator Message:
Posters tempted to sign up for Zacks in order to get the free Moderna research, as I had to do in order to try and get a definitive answer on the copyright status of MCB's now-deleted post, are liable to find their inboxes bombarded with emails. See my warning message above about the difficulties of unsubscribing from these. --MDW1954


search.php?keywords=Spamgourmet

You just email support@zacks.com or find the alert-preferences page on zacks.com and remove yourself there. Worked for me.

Matt


Yes, I emailed them over the weekend, and they say that they've unsubscribed me, but it will take a few days for the emails to stop.

MDW1954

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Re: Moderna

#390821

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » February 28th, 2021, 9:58 am

https://investors.modernatx.com/news-re ... -financial

“2020 was a historic year for Moderna. The team rose to the challenge to address the devastating COVID-19 pandemic in less than one year with our authorized vaccine. It is encouraging and humbling that more than 32 million doses of our vaccine have been administered in the U.S. and that millions of people around the world have been vaccinated with our vaccine to date. 2020 demonstrated the power of harnessing mRNA to make medicines and also demonstrated the speed and scalability of the Moderna platform that we have built over the last 10 years,” said Stéphane Bancel, Chief Executive Officer of Moderna. “I believe that 2021 will be an inflection year for Moderna. We previously believed that mRNA would lead to approved medicines, and we were limited in our ambitions by the need for regular capital raises and keeping several years of cash to manage financing risk. We now know that mRNA vaccines can be highly efficacious and authorized for use, and we are a cash-flow generating commercial company. We opened commercial subsidiaries in 8 countries in 2020 and plan to add Japan, South Korea and Australia in 2021. We plan to accelerate and significantly increase our investments in science and grow our development pipeline faster. By executing on our 2021 priorities, we will advance our mission of delivering on the promise of mRNA science to create a new generation of transformative medicines for patients. This is just the beginning.”

Matt

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Re: Moderna

#390829

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » February 28th, 2021, 10:20 am

More from the above link:

Positive Net CFO
Net Cash Provided by (Used in) Operating Activities: Net cash provided by operating activities was $2.03 billion for the year ended December 31, 2020 compared to net cash used in operating activities of $(459) million for the year ended December 31, 2019.

3900% increase in revenue comparable Q4s
Revenue: Total revenue was $571 million for the fourth quarter of 2020 compared to $14 million for the fourth quarter of 2019. Total revenue was $803 million for the year ended December 31, 2020 compared to $60 million for the year ended December 31, 2019. The increases in both periods in 2020 were driven by increases in grant revenue and product sales. The increase in grant revenue was primarily due to the BARDA award to accelerate development of our COVID-19 vaccine. We began to recognize revenue in December 2020 from our COVID-19 vaccine subsequent to its authorization for emergency use by the FDA and Health Canada.

Matt

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Re: Moderna

#396215

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » March 16th, 2021, 4:45 pm

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN2B71OE

Moderna Inc said on Monday it had dosed the first participant in an early-stage study of a new COVID-19 vaccine candidate that could potentially be stored and shipped in refrigerators instead of freezers.

The company said its new candidate could make it easier for distribution, especially in developing countries where supply chain issues could hamper vaccination drives.

The early-stage study will assess the safety and immunogenicity of the next-generation vaccine, designated as mRNA-1283, at three dose levels, and will be given to healthy adults either as a single dose or in two doses 28 days apart, the company said.

Moderna also plans to evaluate the new vaccine, mRNA-1283, as a potential booster shot in future studies.

Last week, Moderna began dosing the first participants in a study testing COVID-19 booster vaccine candidates targeting the variant, known as B.1.351, that first emerged in South Africa.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN2B81EJ

Moderna Inc has begun dosing patients in a mid-to-late stage study of its COVID-19 vaccine, mRNA-1273, in children aged six months to less than 12 years, the company said on Tuesday.

The study will assess the safety and effectiveness of two doses of mRNA-1273 given 28 days apart and intends to enroll about 6,750 children in the United States and Canada.

The vaccine has already been authorized for emergency use in Americans who are aged 18 and older.

In a separate study which began in December, Moderna is also testing mRNA-1273 in adolescents between 12 and 18 years old.

The latest study is being conducted in collaboration with the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) and the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA).

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Re: Moderna

#409922

Postby SalvorHardin » May 6th, 2021, 9:32 pm

Excellent first quarter results announced today. Completely overshadowed by Biden demanding that Moderna loses all patent protection for its vaccine.

Company forecasts $20 earnings per share for 2021, putting the shares on a PE of 8. I reckon that based on advanced vaccine sales of $19.2 billion we could be looking at eps of $25 to $28 per share.


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