Re: Taking a Speculation on MSTR
Posted: August 19th, 2023, 11:36 am
I have bought back into MSTR yesterday at $337.56 per share.
As I have stated before, I consider this almost a value play...buying Microstrategy with 152,333 Bitcoin in their reserves, is like buying a cheap profitable company with an ENORMOUS cash reserve. That's the downside protection. The upside is, this is a leveraged play on the Bitcoin price, with a low chance of one of their new bitcoin lightning products for commerce doing really well.
I believe the market frequently mis-prices the shares...it whipsaws between being valued as if it doesn't hold these assets ($3.96 billion in Bitcoin!), or it gets way over-valued when Bitcoin shoots up in price and people get excited because it's all over the media, because it's one of the only ways that investors in the US can get exposure to Bitcoin in their tax-sheltered accounts.
We are heading towards the next Bitcoin halving event (when the amount of new Bitcoin issued is cut in half), these happen after 210,000 blocks have been produced (roughly every 4 years ). Historically the Bitcoin price leaps higher around these halvings. Fiat currencies continue to be debased, governments continue to spend more than they earn. Geopolitics continues on it's insane path. The US empire continues to stumble towards inevitable collapse. The BRICS countries continue trying & failing to agree on a new reserve currency. In other words, Bitcoin has tailwinds. I'm basing my interest in MSTR on the opinion that the Bitcoin price increases over time...with lots of volatility.
I'm ambivalent towards MSTR's long-term success as a company, but I think there continues to be a trading opportunity here...buy MSTR when Bitcoin crashes, sell when the price sharply recovered & you've made 30-40%. Repeat. This is my 4th time around now with this cycle.
H
As I have stated before, I consider this almost a value play...buying Microstrategy with 152,333 Bitcoin in their reserves, is like buying a cheap profitable company with an ENORMOUS cash reserve. That's the downside protection. The upside is, this is a leveraged play on the Bitcoin price, with a low chance of one of their new bitcoin lightning products for commerce doing really well.
I believe the market frequently mis-prices the shares...it whipsaws between being valued as if it doesn't hold these assets ($3.96 billion in Bitcoin!), or it gets way over-valued when Bitcoin shoots up in price and people get excited because it's all over the media, because it's one of the only ways that investors in the US can get exposure to Bitcoin in their tax-sheltered accounts.
We are heading towards the next Bitcoin halving event (when the amount of new Bitcoin issued is cut in half), these happen after 210,000 blocks have been produced (roughly every 4 years ). Historically the Bitcoin price leaps higher around these halvings. Fiat currencies continue to be debased, governments continue to spend more than they earn. Geopolitics continues on it's insane path. The US empire continues to stumble towards inevitable collapse. The BRICS countries continue trying & failing to agree on a new reserve currency. In other words, Bitcoin has tailwinds. I'm basing my interest in MSTR on the opinion that the Bitcoin price increases over time...with lots of volatility.
I'm ambivalent towards MSTR's long-term success as a company, but I think there continues to be a trading opportunity here...buy MSTR when Bitcoin crashes, sell when the price sharply recovered & you've made 30-40%. Repeat. This is my 4th time around now with this cycle.
H