Bouleversee wrote:dealtn wrote:Bouleversee wrote:Wouldn't you have expected that news to make the s.p. rocket but it's back to less than I topped up at months ago? I shall never understand the stock market. It's just what those of us who are old and/or vulnerable need as we haven't a clue what our antibody levels are and how safe it is to resume a reasonably normal life.
Not necessarily. What's the route for this to be an increased monetised benefit to the company?
AZN have been operating a (quasi) not-for-profit Covid vaccine product anyway. Is this going to change?
Even if so, there are 2 effects here. One, this new drug is more compelling relative to it's competitors (than previously thought). So potentially more demand (and often increased margin too). Secondly the life of the product is extended, which actually reduces demand for it, and previous alternatives. (Think about light bulbs - if the "forever" bulb was invented, you would only buy it once).
What is the compelling reason for a rocketing share price in your view? You hint that for people like you, perhaps, old and vulnerable and rather nervous, this is a good thing. It quite probably is. But how much are you willing to pay for it? I suspect most will expect it to be free (to them at the point of delivery) on the NHS.
AZN is already charging for their vaccine, apart from the poorer countries. If you missed that, you may also have missed research reports which had shown that some people, Asians in particular, were genetically more pre-disposed to suffer severe consequences from Covid infection and that immuno-compromised people did not produce any antibodies. Since our antibody levels are not routinely tested after vaccination, we don't know to what extent we are protected even though some of us have had 3 jabs this year. Assuming the outcome of the trials is positive and approval is forthcoming, and assuming the cost of one dose of the new drug is no more than 2 or 3 doses of any vaccine and bearing in mind the saving on administering it, freeing up medical staff for other essential but now delayed purposes, plus the possibility that many more lives could be saved I should have thought AZN would be on a win-win and yes, I would expect to get it on the NHS if appropriate for me. Why not? I don't have to pay for my jabs. However, I am just a dippy old Doris who doesn't claim to be an expert, unlike you. I thought there would be an immediate rise in the s.p. even if it fell back again if further news was disappointing. It remains to be seen how this will develop.
I haven't heard anything about the price as yet. Have you heard that the cost would be astronomic compared with the cost of the vaccines?
I'm not claiming to be an expert - show me where you think I have.
You asked a question "wouldn't you have expected that news to make the sp rocket?"
I answered the question. If you don't like my answer, or now prefer to ask an alternative, well fine. I think my response is a reasonable one. The share price will only rise, let alone rocket, if this is something that monetises the future cashflows more positively than the market was previously expecting. I don't think it does. The market agreed.