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Lloyds (LLOY)

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scrumpyjack
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Re: Lloyds (LLOY)

#304583

Postby scrumpyjack » April 30th, 2020, 6:27 pm

johnhemming wrote:
scrumpyjack wrote:It can't make economic sense to raise more equity when the shares trade at almost half net asset value. Why would shareholders want to put more money in for such low returns?

Its a regulatory issue for Banks.


Yes they need to have the level of capital required to support the lending they undertake.

If there is a danger of having insufficient capital for that level of lending, the solution is either to raise more capital or to reduce the lending. There may be a strong argument for the latter.

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Re: Lloyds (LLOY)

#310725

Postby Breelander » May 21st, 2020, 4:51 pm


idpickering
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Re: Lloyds (LLOY)

#323978

Postby idpickering » July 6th, 2020, 7:11 am

Lloyds Banking Group Leadership Succession

Following the announcement last year that Lord Blackwell intended to retire as Chairman of Lloyds Banking Group over the coming year, the Group is pleased to announce that Robin Budenberg CBE has been selected as his successor. Robin will join the Group Board on October 1st 2020 and take over as Chair in early 2021 when Lord Blackwell steps down from the Board.

During a long career with S.G. Warburg/UBS Investment Bank, Robin Budenberg worked closely with the Government in 2008 as an advisor on the recapitalisation of the UK banking industry. In 2009 he became Chief Executive, then Chairman, of UK Financial Investments (UKFI) with responsibility for managing the UK Government's investment in UK banks, including Lloyds. In 2014, Robin became London Chairman of Centerview Partners, the US based independent advisory firm, and in 2016 he was appointed Chairman of The Crown Estate, which has a diverse £14 billion portfolio with its profits remitted to the Treasury for the benefit of the public finances. Before he assumes the role of Chair of Lloyds Banking Group he will step down from his current roles at Centerview Partners and on the boards of Big Society Trust and Charity Bank, but will continue as Chairman of The Crown Estate. His selection followed an extensive search process led by the Group's Senior Independent Director, Alan Dickinson.

With the Chair succession now in place, António Horta-Osório has also informed the Board of his intention to step down as Chief Executive in 2021 after having delivered three strategic plans and completed 10 years in the role next year.

António has agreed to time his stepping down as Group CEO to support a smooth transition, with a target date at the end of June next year, at which point he will retire from Lloyds. Until then he will continue to be completely focused with the executive team on delivering the remainder of the current strategic plan (GSR3), as well as the plans put in place to address the Covid 19 pandemic effects and support our customers during these difficult times.


https://www.investegate.co.uk/lloyds-ba ... 00090586S/

dealtn
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Re: Lloyds (LLOY)

#324016

Postby dealtn » July 6th, 2020, 9:51 am

"With the Chair succession now in place, António Horta-Osório has also informed the Board of his intention to step down as Chief Executive in 2021 after having delivered three strategic plans and completed 10 years in the role next year."


Ten Years at the top and far from certain the shares will be higher than when he took over.

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Re: Lloyds (LLOY)

#329565

Postby idpickering » July 30th, 2020, 7:38 am

2020 Half-Year Results - Part 1 of 2

https://www.investegate.co.uk/lloyds-ba ... 00105412U/

2020 Half-Year Results - Part 2 of 2

https://www.investegate.co.uk/lloyds-ba ... 00105413U/

johnhemming
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Re: Lloyds (LLOY)

#329569

Postby johnhemming » July 30th, 2020, 7:55 am

This should be the worst period although we don't know about any knock on effects as yet. Hence we are getting more certainty that the banks will (all?) make a profit for 2020.

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Re: Lloyds (LLOY)

#329618

Postby Dod101 » July 30th, 2020, 10:20 am

I do not hold Lloyds and although it pains me to say so, it is probably just as well that banks were told not to pay any dividends for this year.

Dod

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Re: Lloyds (LLOY)

#329635

Postby johnhemming » July 30th, 2020, 11:01 am

I bought a few more Lloyds at about 25.9 this morning. Without the dual problems of Brexit and Covid-19 Lloyds would be worth around 80p plus. Both issues will come to some form of resolution at some stage and if Lloyds makes a profit this year (as is forecast - it did actually make a post tax profit this half) then it is unlikely to be asking for more capital.

Obvoiusly there are the questions about a second wave. However, we have recently up to date figures in the UK which do not show any second wave. Getting reliable figures from elsewhere takes a bit of effort, but it still appears that the only places that are getting proper second waves are places which did not have a first wave.

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Re: Lloyds (LLOY)

#329645

Postby richfool » July 30th, 2020, 11:25 am

Note the last sentence of the quoted extract (in bold):
Lloyds Bank (LLOY.L) has joined the roll-call of banks setting aside billions more to deal with bad loans as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, earmarking another £2.4bn ($3.1bn) on Thursday.

The bank said it had set aside an extra £2.4bn to cover an expected rise in the number of credit cards, mortgages, and loans going bad as a result of the crisis. Analysts had expected Lloyds to set aside £1.5bn.

“We have seen the UK economy deteriorate since the first quarter,” chief executive António Horta-Osório said on a call with journalists.

The extra provisions in the second quarter mean Lloyds has now set aside £3.8bn in the last six months. The bank said it would likely end up setting aside as much as £5.5bn by the end of the year.

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/lloyd ... 11454.html

johnhemming
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Re: Lloyds (LLOY)

#329811

Postby johnhemming » July 30th, 2020, 6:21 pm

So the trading surplus for H1 was 3.5bn if H2 is 3.5bn and 5.5bn is written off profit is 1.5bn. Which is a profit not a loss.

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Re: Lloyds (LLOY)

#329822

Postby Wizard » July 30th, 2020, 7:26 pm

Personally I am not tempted by Lloyd’s ords, I hold a large quantity of the Prefs and while I don’t really trust the Lloyds management after the ECN events (lucky not to hold, but followed it closely) fell happier with those. For me Lloyds is too reliant on the UK and I am pretty bearish on the UK at the moment.

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Re: Lloyds (LLOY)

#330449

Postby NoBidNoOffer » August 3rd, 2020, 12:25 am

johnhemming wrote:I bought a few more Lloyds at about 25.9 this morning. Without the dual problems of Brexit and Covid-19 Lloyds would be worth around 80p plus. Both issues will come to some form of resolution at some stage and if Lloyds makes a profit this year (as is forecast - it did actually make a post tax profit this half) then it is unlikely to be asking for more capital.

Obvoiusly there are the questions about a second wave. However, we have recently up to date figures in the UK which do not show any second wave. Getting reliable figures from elsewhere takes a bit of effort, but it still appears that the only places that are getting proper second waves are places which did not have a first wave.


You do realise the shares have fallen 95% over 20 years and 50% over the past 10 years. If you are hoping that they will get to 80p (which is a pipe dream) then you best speak to the people,who bought them at 30p, 40p, 60p. 70p, 80p etc. as they all thought the exact same thing.

johnhemming
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Re: Lloyds (LLOY)

#330482

Postby johnhemming » August 3rd, 2020, 9:01 am

NoBidNoOffer wrote:You do realise the shares have fallen 95% over 20 years and 50% over the past 10 years. If you are hoping that they will get to 80p (which is a pipe dream) then you best speak to the people,who bought them at 30p, 40p, 60p. 70p, 80p etc. as they all thought the exact same thing.

It is true that they only got to 79.1 in 2015, but the price history over 20 years is not relevant to what the stock might do in the future.

There are two factors holding them back
Covid - 19
and
Brexit.

As far as Covid-19 is concerned it will become clearer that for the England at least the epidemic is on its way out. Brexit remains an issue, but Johnson may compromise on doing the most harmful stuff.

scrumpyjack
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Re: Lloyds (LLOY)

#330504

Postby scrumpyjack » August 3rd, 2020, 10:15 am

johnhemming wrote:
NoBidNoOffer wrote:You do realise the shares have fallen 95% over 20 years and 50% over the past 10 years. If you are hoping that they will get to 80p (which is a pipe dream) then you best speak to the people,who bought them at 30p, 40p, 60p. 70p, 80p etc. as they all thought the exact same thing.

It is true that they only got to 79.1 in 2015, but the price history over 20 years is not relevant to what the stock might do in the future.

There are two factors holding them back
Covid - 19
and
Brexit.

As far as Covid-19 is concerned it will become clearer that for the England at least the epidemic is on its way out. Brexit remains an issue, but Johnson may compromise on doing the most harmful stuff.


I think there a lot more problems for banks than Covid and Brexit.

Ultra low interest rates ruin their lending margins, new competition from internet based banking from competitors who do not have the overhead of branch networks, overpaid management, a long tail legacy of doubtful debt problems not yet recognised etc etc

Whether those problems quite justify the current extreme low share prices, I don’t know, but the capacity of banks to screw things up and forever disappoint on the downside should not be underestimated.

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Re: Lloyds (LLOY)

#330517

Postby dealtn » August 3rd, 2020, 10:49 am

scrumpyjack wrote:... new competition from internet based banking from competitors who do not have the overhead of branch networks...


Such competitors also have the disadvantage of how their Capital (and how much they need) is risk assessed. It's not all negative about being a large established Bank.

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Re: Lloyds (LLOY)

#330530

Postby johnhemming » August 3rd, 2020, 11:24 am

In the end it is best to start with the published accounts and make assessments as to where things are likely to go. You can then compare your assessments to those done by various analysts.

In the end I don't look for subtle misvaluations so reasonable estimates which could be out easily by 10% will do.

The NIM(Net Interest Margin) for Lloyds is published at 2.5%. All of the Covid-19 finance has that sort of NIM.

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Re: Lloyds (LLOY)

#330596

Postby flyer61 » August 3rd, 2020, 3:23 pm

I have been musing whether the UK insurers are about to put in some bank like share price performance shortly. All out for me, only banks I now hold are Handelsabanken and the Bank of Montreal.

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Re: Lloyds (LLOY)

#330661

Postby GoSeigen » August 3rd, 2020, 7:35 pm

flyer61 wrote:I have been musing whether the UK insurers are about to put in some bank like share price performance shortly. All out for me, only banks I now hold are Handelsabanken and the Bank of Montreal.


Could I ask all the punters bragging about being "out of banks" near their multi-decade lows: who do they believe is holding all the bank shares they've been selling?

Hedge funds? Instos? Billionaires? SWFs? Or even greater fools than themselves?

GS

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Re: Lloyds (LLOY)

#330664

Postby johnhemming » August 3rd, 2020, 7:44 pm

I think the banks are below the 2008-9 lows although they got more capital after that.

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Re: Lloyds (LLOY)

#337487

Postby roland500 » September 1st, 2020, 7:51 pm

Lloyds down 5% today. Shorters had a great day. Strewth!


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