Shell PLC (SHEL)

[idpickering]

4th Quarter Results Press Release.

Chief Executive Officer, Ben van Beurden
"2021 was a momentous year for Shell. We launched our Powering Progress strategy and simplified our share structure and
organisation. Progress made in 2021 will enable us to be bolder and move faster. We have a compelling strategy, with customers at its
core. We have ambitious plans to generate shareholder value, to decarbonise our products and to provide energy to our customers
while respecting nature.
We delivered very strong financial performance in 2021, and our financial strength and discipline underpin the transformation of our
company. Today we are stepping up our distributions with the announcement of an $8.5 billion share buyback programme and we
expect to increase our dividend per share by around 4% for Q1 2022."
STRONG DELIVERY, ACCELERATED DISTRIBUTIONS
▪ Strong Q4 2021 Adjusted Earnings of $6.4 billion, supported by higher commodity prices. Continued strong CFFO excluding
working capital of $11.1 billion in Q4 2021. Total CFFO excluding working capital amounted to $55 billion in 2021.
▪ Disciplined cash capex: $20 billion in 2021 and expected to be at the lower end of $23-27 billion range in 2022.
▪ Net debt reduced to $52.6 billion by end-2021, a $23 billion reduction compared with 2020.
▪ Share buybacks of $3.5 billion announced in 2021. Dividend expected to be increased by ~4% to $0.25 per share for Q1
2022.
▪ Stepping up pace of distributions by announcing a share buyback programme of $8.5 billion for the first half of 2022,
including the remaining $5.5 billion of Permian divestment proceeds.
.
$ million Adj. Earnings1 Adj. EBITDA (CCS) CFFO ex. WC CFFO Cash .

https://www.shell.com/investors/results ... elease.pdf

And;

Shell plc fourth quarter 2021 interim dividend

The Board of Shell plc (“Shell” or the “Company”) today announced an interim dividend in respect of the fourth quarter of 2021 of US$ 0.24 per ordinary share.

The Board expects that the first quarter 2022 interim dividend will be set at US$ 0.25 per share, an increase of around 4% over the US dollar dividend for the fourth quarter 2021. The first quarter 2022 interim dividend is scheduled to be announced on May 5, 2022.

Details relating to the fourth quarter 2021 interim dividend

Ex div 17 Feb 22, paid 28 Mar 22. Sterling conversion rate announced 14 Feb 22

nb CEO interview on Bloomberg at 0800hrs today.

Ian.

[Dod101]

Shell looks like a decent buy - PE of around 8, Price to Sales of 0.9, Price to FCF of 8. 25bn in free cash flow. COVID concerns are mostly behind us and oil will be needed for at least a decade (most likely longer) .

Sorry to be direct but you sure are a Learninginvestor if, having seen the Shell price rise over the last few weeks the way it has, you now consider Shell a decent buy. It was a much more decent buy around September last year when you could have bought it for about 25% less than now and also on a much better yield. Anyway we will see what their results look like on Friday.

Dod

They were even a better buy when Covid19 hit us all. I topped up my holdings four times that year, and my BP. holdings too. Both had become so overweight in my HYP in capital value terms that I recently trimmed both back. Happy to hold them, but I'm not a buyer currently.

I think the Shell 4th quarter results are out today? The Shell CEO is due to be interviewed on Bloomberg shortly apparently.

Ian.

These results are now on their website. They show predictably good results for the 4th Quarter and a stepping up of their share buyback programme plus a promised 4% increase in the dividend for the Q1 2022. These are not though the final results for the year for which we will have to wait a bit longer. It is a shame that on the same theme of the rising share price they were not able to have bought their shares back at under £20. This is though I think part of their long term aim, to reduce the number of shares in issue. Remember this one was thrown of course by the set back from Covid.

Dod

[monabri]

That's an extra $3bn of share buybacks over the initial figure indicated 7th Jan 2022.

viewtopic.php?p=471054#p471054

https://www.investegate.co.uk/royal-dut ... 0000H7803/

The board have elected to increase the buybacks and not do anything else with the money.

( $8.5bn v $7bn dividends paid in 2020)

https://www.statista.com/statistics/260 ... tch-shell/

( the last bit of the info in the link is obviously out of date!).

[Dod101]

That's an extra $3bn of share buybacks over the initial figure indicated 7th Jan 2022.

viewtopic.php?p=471054#p471054

https://www.investegate.co.uk/royal-dut ... 0000H7803/

The board have elected to increase the buybacks and not do anything else with the money.

Presumably that is because of the good numbers from Q4 2021. It was always their ambition to substantially reduce the number of shares in Issue, but all of that was thrown off course because of Covid so I guess that this is a sort of catch up. I have not gone back to look but before Covid they announced a very large buyback to remove the shares which were issued at the time of buying BG but that was thrown off course.

Dod

[tjh290633]

These are not though the final results for the year for which we will have to wait a bit longer. It is a shame that on the same theme of the rising share price they were not able to have bought their shares back at under £20. This is though I think part of their long term aim, to reduce the number of shares in issue. Remember this one was thrown of course by the set back from Covid.

Dod

The RNS on the ADVFN website, http://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london ... r/87176691 does have the unaudited full year results.

It has been a painful morning trying to find everything. Investegate had the press release but not the results, vice versa on ADVFN.

Changing the EPIC seems to have disturbed a lot of Equilibria. Investegate have not got round to adding SHEL to their FTSE100 list of companies, so we have to cast our nets far and wide.

TJH

[monabri]

That's an extra $3bn of share buybacks over the initial figure indicated 7th Jan 2022.

viewtopic.php?p=471054#p471054

https://www.investegate.co.uk/royal-dut ... 0000H7803/

The board have elected to increase the buybacks and not do anything else with the money.

Presumably that is because of the good numbers from Q4 2021. It was always their ambition to substantially reduce the number of shares in Issue, but all of that was thrown off course because of Covid so I guess that this is a sort of catch up. I have not gone back to look but before Covid they announced a very large buyback to remove the shares which were issued at the time of buying BG but that was thrown off course.

Dod

After a bit of a trawl... the plan to buy back $25bn of shares was announced on 26th July 2018.

https://www.investegate.co.uk/royal-dut ... 0300PDE46/


On 30th April 2020 (Q1 2020 Unaudited report), they announced that Tranche 7 of the buy back had been completed. Circa $16Bn of shares had been bought back and cancelled. However....

"given the risk of a prolonged period of economic uncertainty, weaker commodity prices, higher volatility and uncertain demand outlook, the Board believes that maintaining the current level of shareholder distributions is not prudent. Following the announcement not to continue with the next tranche of the share buyback programme, the Board has also decided to reduce the first quarter 2020 dividend and reset to 16 US cents per share."

https://www.investegate.co.uk/royal-dut ... 0000H4192/

So....~$16bn bought back and then todays announcement revising the next Tranche of buy back to $8.5bn.....thus back to the original plan of July 2018 with a Covid induced hiatus.

[Dod101]

That's an extra $3bn of share buybacks over the initial figure indicated 7th Jan 2022.

viewtopic.php?p=471054#p471054

https://www.investegate.co.uk/royal-dut ... 0000H7803/

The board have elected to increase the buybacks and not do anything else with the money.

Presumably that is because of the good numbers from Q4 2021. It was always their ambition to substantially reduce the number of shares in Issue, but all of that was thrown off course because of Covid so I guess that this is a sort of catch up. I have not gone back to look but before Covid they announced a very large buyback to remove the shares which were issued at the time of buying BG but that was thrown off course.

Dod

After a bit of a trawl... the plan to buy back $25bn of shares was announced on 26th July 2018.

https://www.investegate.co.uk/royal-dut ... 0300PDE46/


On 30th April 2020 (Q1 2020 Unaudited report), they announced that Tranche 7 of the buy back had been completed. Circa $16Bn of shares had been bought back and cancelled. However....

"given the risk of a prolonged period of economic uncertainty, weaker commodity prices, higher volatility and uncertain demand outlook, the Board believes that maintaining the current level of shareholder distributions is not prudent. Following the announcement not to continue with the next tranche of the share buyback programme, the Board has also decided to reduce the first quarter 2020 dividend and reset to 16 US cents per share."

https://www.investegate.co.uk/royal-dut ... 0000H4192/

So....~$16bn bought back and then todays announcement revising the next Tranche of buy back to $8.5bn.....thus back to the original plan of July 2018 with a Covid induced hiatus.

Well done monabri. I freely confess that I just did not bother to track back on all that but you have confirmed my general thoughts. So they have in fact reinstated their original plan. I wonder how many companies could afford to buy back $25 bn of their shares? Anyway I assume we can now read into it that confidence has been more or less restored.

Dod

[LearningInvestor]

Shell looks like a decent buy - PE of around 8, Price to Sales of 0.9, Price to FCF of 8. 25bn in free cash flow. COVID concerns are mostly behind us and oil will be needed for at least a decade (most likely longer) .

Sorry to be direct but you sure are a Learninginvestor if, having seen the Shell price rise over the last few weeks the way it has, you now consider Shell a decent buy. It was a much more decent buy around September last year when you could have bought it for about 25% less than now and also on a much better yield. Anyway we will see what their results look like on Friday.

Dod

They were even a better buy when Covid19 hit us all. I topped up my holdings four times that year, and my BP. holdings too. Both had become so overweight in my HYP in capital value terms that I recently trimmed both back. Happy to hold them, but I'm not a buyer currently.

I think the Shell 4th quarter results are out today? The Shell CEO is due to be interviewed on Bloomberg shortly apparently.

Ian.

These results are now on their website. They show predictably good results for the 4th Quarter and a stepping up of their share buyback programme plus a promised 4% increase in the dividend for the Q1 2022. These are not though the final results for the year for which we will have to wait a bit longer. It is a shame that on the same theme of the rising share price they were not able to have bought their shares back at under £20. This is though I think part of their long term aim, to reduce the number of shares in issue. Remember this one was thrown of course by the set back from Covid.

Dod

Thanks for the comments guys. I actually bought some Shell around March/April 2020 . I recently topped up as I was looking to invest a little cash and after analysing several stocks, I found the valuation metrics on Shell to be most appealing.

[idpickering]

Thanks for the comments guys. I actually bought some Shell around March/April 2020 . I recently topped up as I was looking to invest a little cash and after analysing several stocks, I found the valuation metrics on Shell to be most appealing.

I bet you don't regret having done so. As I've often mentioned on these boards, ad nauseam to some here I guess, I bought more Shell and BP four times that year. Ballsy moves on my part maybe, but they looked like screaming buys to me at the time. I have trimmed both back a bit recently though as they'd become way to heavy in capital value terms in my HYP for my taste. I have no intention of selling any more of either oilie again any time soon. BP finals are out next Tuesday by the way.

Ian.

[BullDog]

Very nice to see Shell closing in on 2000p again. I think today's rally was in sympathy to ExxonMobil. Hoping for very strong results here later in the week

And we have arrived at 2000p this morning. A great relief to me as I am now even on the stock. Very nice.

[kempiejon]

Very nice to see Shell closing in on 2000p again. I think today's rally was in sympathy to ExxonMobil. Hoping for very strong results here later in the week

And we have arrived at 2000p this morning. A great relief to me as I am now even on the stock. Very nice.

What you've missed out on is the chance to buy Shell at a discount from all the time it has been below your purchase price until now. Cracking company Shell, throws off a good income as the sp fluctuates up and down. Top up when it's down for extra income and hold/sell when it's up for capital gain.
Like the man says
Anchoring is a heuristic revealed by behavioral finance that describes the subconscious use of irrelevant information, such as the purchase price of a security, as a fixed reference point (or anchor) for making subsequent decisions about that security.

[88V8]

Given the current level of Socialist screaming for 'surplus profits' to be stolen from the oilies, I find the continued buybacks
politically crass.
It would be far better that they spend the money on O&G exploration and development, forget this ESG nonsense.
Then one could point to the fact that the 'surplus profits' are being usefully employed to reduce future energy prices.

All bearing in mind that the Socialists are likely to be in govt next time round

V8

Moderator Message:
We have a place for politics, so please try to keep them off other boards.

TJH

[BullDog]

Very nice to see Shell closing in on 2000p again. I think today's rally was in sympathy to ExxonMobil. Hoping for very strong results here later in the week

And we have arrived at 2000p this morning. A great relief to me as I am now even on the stock. Very nice.

What you've missed out on is the chance to buy Shell at a discount from all the time it has been below your purchase price until now. Cracking company Shell, throws off a good income as the sp fluctuates up and down. Top up when it's down for extra income and hold/sell when it's up for capital gain.
Like the man says
Anchoring is a heuristic revealed by behavioral finance that describes the subconscious use of irrelevant information, such as the purchase price of a security, as a fixed reference point (or anchor) for making subsequent decisions about that security.

There's no denying you are absolutely correct. I didn't buy more in the sales because I was already well overweight with Shell. Happily, the stuff that I did buy in the sales has made up the difference. So, nothing lost and a bit of useful diversity added

[BullDog]

Given the current level of Socialist screaming for 'surplus profits' to be stolen from the oilies, I find the continued buybacks
politically crass.
It would be far better that they spend the money on O&G exploration and development, forget this ESG nonsense.
Then one could point to the fact that the 'surplus profits' are being usefully employed to reduce future energy prices.

All bearing in mind that the Socialists are likely to be in govt next time round

V8

Of course the left leaning intellectual pygmies ignore the record losses the company incurred prior to the current period. The idiots weren't heard saying we should cut Shell's taxes because the company was deep in the sh*t

Moderator Message:
See note above.

TJH

[Lanark]

The new stock ticker for shell SHEL.L

It's so cuteee I don't think I'll ever be able to sell it now!

[BullDog]

A fairly muted share price response at Shell with Brent at $100 a barrel and international gas prices pushing northwards

[simoan]

A fairly muted share price response at Shell with Brent at $100 a barrel and international gas prices pushing northwards

I'm not sure what their exposure is to Nord Stream 2? I know they were one of the five core investors in it. They also have a share in a large Gazprom project in Russia which you can effectively markdown to being worth zero right now. These could be the reasons it is underperforming the increase in oil and gas prices. Then again. what do I know!? I don't follow Shell, just that I read some research yesterday that pointed out the most obvious losers from the Russian invasion.

All the best, Si

[BullDog]

A fairly muted share price response at Shell with Brent at $100 a barrel and international gas prices pushing northwards

I'm not sure what their exposure is to Nord Stream 2? I know they were one of the five core investors in it. They also have a share in a large Gazprom project in Russia which you can effectively markdown to being worth zero right now. These could be the reasons it is underperforming the increase in oil and gas prices. Then again. what do I know!? I don't follow Shell, just that I read some research yesterday that pointed out the most obvious losers from the Russian invasion.

All the best, Si

Thanks, I doubt Shell have any substantial exposure to Nordstream 2. But they are one of the world's biggest producers of LNG. They also have a large gas trading business. Prices of LNG are usually linked contractually to oil prices and the cherry on the cake for Shell will be the spot cargo shipments that are effectively auctioned to the highest bidder. (Yes, Shell has Sakhalin LNG in the far East. China, Korea and Japan will continue to take all they can get under long term contracts). Should the pipelines crossing Ukraine get blown up, the sky will be the limit on international gas prices. Here's hoping the share price responds from here.

All the best.

BD

[simoan]

A fairly muted share price response at Shell with Brent at $100 a barrel and international gas prices pushing northwards

I'm not sure what their exposure is to Nord Stream 2? I know they were one of the five core investors in it. They also have a share in a large Gazprom project in Russia which you can effectively markdown to being worth zero right now. These could be the reasons it is underperforming the increase in oil and gas prices. Then again. what do I know!? I don't follow Shell, just that I read some research yesterday that pointed out the most obvious losers from the Russian invasion.

All the best, Si

Thanks, I doubt Shell have any substantial exposure to Nordstream 2.

It seems they committed financing of up to 950m Euros to Nord Stream 2 AG (owned by Gazprom) in 2017. Doesn't seem a lot for a company that recently announced net profit of £20bn for FY21.

[BullDog]

A fairly muted share price response at Shell with Brent at $100 a barrel and international gas prices pushing northwards

I'm not sure what their exposure is to Nord Stream 2? I know they were one of the five core investors in it. They also have a share in a large Gazprom project in Russia which you can effectively markdown to being worth zero right now. These could be the reasons it is underperforming the increase in oil and gas prices. Then again. what do I know!? I don't follow Shell, just that I read some research yesterday that pointed out the most obvious losers from the Russian invasion.

All the best, Si

Thanks, I doubt Shell have any substantial exposure to Nordstream 2.

It seems they committed financing of up to 950m Euros to Nord Stream 2 AG (owned by Gazprom) in 2017. Doesn't seem a lot for a company that recently announced net profit of £20bn for FY21.

Indeed, what I mean is that with the Nordstream 2 pipeline not fully commissioned, there's unlikely any contractually binding non supply issues related to it for Shell. Ofcourse, not all Shell's LNG portfolio is sweetness and light. Prelude being the obvious disaster. I have a long standing professional interest in LNG and Shell along with Total are going to be printing money medium term until gas prices level out and eventually fall back.