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Smith(DS) PLC (SMDS)

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pje16
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Re: Smith(DS) PLC (SMDS)

#508651

Postby pje16 » June 21st, 2022, 12:36 pm

Bouleversee wrote:
pje16 wrote:I know.... the rump of my holding was bought 2017 @£4.33 :roll:


Oh dear. My highest was 367.43; average 343.25 which is bad enough! Nil desperandum!


I'll see you and raise it
£5.27 on a divi reinvestment in May 2018
average cost now, sadly is £4.13

daveh
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Re: Smith(DS) PLC (SMDS)

#508668

Postby daveh » June 21st, 2022, 3:10 pm

pje16 wrote:
Bouleversee wrote:
pje16 wrote:I know.... the rump of my holding was bought 2017 @£4.33 :roll:


Oh dear. My highest was 367.43; average 343.25 which is bad enough! Nil desperandum!


I'll see you and raise it
£5.27 on a divi reinvestment in May 2018
average cost now, sadly is £4.13


Even with the rights I took up at 350p in 2018 my average cost is 136.47p, its actually one of my better performers. Plus it looks even better if you add in the rights I sold in 2012. Just updated my XIRR calculation and to today it shows a return of 22.67%pa since first purchase in 2008

Dod101
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Re: Smith(DS) PLC (SMDS)

#508671

Postby Dod101 » June 21st, 2022, 3:16 pm

daveh wrote:
pje16 wrote:
Bouleversee wrote:
pje16 wrote:I know.... the rump of my holding was bought 2017 @£4.33 :roll:


Oh dear. My highest was 367.43; average 343.25 which is bad enough! Nil desperandum!


I'll see you and raise it
£5.27 on a divi reinvestment in May 2018
average cost now, sadly is £4.13


Even with the rights I took up at 350p in 2018 my average cost is 136.47p, its actually one of my better performers. Plus it looks even better if you add in the rights I sold in 2012. Just updated my XIRR calculation and to today it shows a return of 22.67%pa since first purchase in 2008


As always it depends over what period we are doing the measurement. The other thing is of course fashion. many people, me included, often jump on a bandwagon once it is truly rolling. That is often the way with stuff like infrastructure/renewables funds and 'big box' companies.

Dod

tjh290633
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Re: Smith(DS) PLC (SMDS)

#508677

Postby tjh290633 » June 21st, 2022, 3:45 pm

Bouleversee wrote:
tjh290633 wrote:Looking more attractive every day.

TJH


You reckon? I thought so when I bought (twice) in 2019 and 2020 and am now losing almost l5%. I thought the s.p. would go up a lot after today's announcement and the interview on Today but it hasn't moved much and is already fading a bit. With so much red on my p/fs I have lost the will and confidence to risk any more capital.

Well, Lorna. I first bought in 2007 at 210p. Added more in 2008 at 81p then had to trim my holding in 2009 at 189p as I was overweight. Sold my nil-paid rights in 2012 and had to trim again in 2015 at 408p. Sold more rights in 2018 then added some in 2020 at 326p and again last month at 303p. My IRR has been 12.58% over that period.

I'm not complaining, but my cost was negative from 2015 to 2020.

TJH

Itsallaguess
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Re: Smith(DS) PLC (SMDS)

#508680

Postby Itsallaguess » June 21st, 2022, 3:58 pm

pje16 wrote:
Bouleversee wrote:
pje16 wrote:I know.... the rump of my holding was bought 2017 @£4.33


Oh dear. My highest was 367.43; average 343.25 which is bad enough! Nil desperandum!


I'll see you and raise it

£5.27 on a divi reinvestment in May 2018

average cost now, sadly is £4.13


Show me the way to go home....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dLjNzwEULG8

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

Bouleversee
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Re: Smith(DS) PLC (SMDS)

#508690

Postby Bouleversee » June 21st, 2022, 5:30 pm

tjh290633 wrote:
Bouleversee wrote:
tjh290633 wrote:Looking more attractive every day.

TJH


You reckon? I thought so when I bought (twice) in 2019 and 2020 and am now losing almost l5%. I thought the s.p. would go up a lot after today's announcement and the interview on Today but it hasn't moved much and is already fading a bit. With so much red on my p/fs I have lost the will and confidence to risk any more capital.

Well, Lorna. I first bought in 2007 at 210p. Added more in 2008 at 81p then had to trim my holding in 2009 at 189p as I was overweight. Sold my nil-paid rights in 2012 and had to trim again in 2015 at 408p. Sold more rights in 2018 then added some in 2020 at 326p and again last month at 303p. My IRR has been 12.58% over that period.

I'm not complaining, but my cost was negative from 2015 to 2020.

TJH


I wasn't responsible for our investments in those early years and was preoccupied by house move and medical matters. By the time I came to this party, the best part was over. I thought they would do well out of Covid, judging by the enormous amount of large and small boxes delivered every day to the neighbours opposite, but hadn't bargained for the problems caused by the Putin 'exercise' and supply problems. I feel sure the price will recover at some point but no idea when that will be. You are right that buy and hold doesn't work but I simply don't have the time or nous to trade as you do. I haven't yet got over the shock of my very long term hold FSJ, which had made our family a lot of money on paper, has really tumbled and it remains to be seen whether their new CEO will be able to pull it round. Even SMT has fallen from grace and most of my profits disappeared I tried topping up on various shares when they had had a fall but in most cases that just compounded losses so now I am sitting on a chunk of cash in my ISAs waiting for inspiration or just waiting to be spent or gifted to children who would also just sit on it or spend it. None of us likes gambling.

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Re: Smith(DS) PLC (SMDS)

#508737

Postby Steveam » June 21st, 2022, 10:25 pm


Dod101
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Re: Smith(DS) PLC (SMDS)

#508738

Postby Dod101 » June 21st, 2022, 10:34 pm

But tjh is not ‘trading’ he is just making adjustments in a purely mechanical way. Long term buy and hold would have done as well probably but it would have resulted in an unbalanced portfolio. As I said earlier, it all depends on your timescale and holding period.

Dod

tjh290633
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Re: Smith(DS) PLC (SMDS)

#508746

Postby tjh290633 » June 21st, 2022, 11:18 pm

Dod101 wrote:But tjh is not ‘trading’ he is just making adjustments in a purely mechanical way. Long term buy and hold would have done as well probably but it would have resulted in an unbalanced portfolio. As I said earlier, it all depends on your timescale and holding period.

Dod

Actually, had I just bought one lot of shares and sold the two lots of rights, the return would have been an IRR of 11.3%.

TJH

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Re: Smith(DS) PLC (SMDS)

#508774

Postby Dod101 » June 22nd, 2022, 7:48 am

tjh290633 wrote:
Dod101 wrote:But tjh is not ‘trading’ he is just making adjustments in a purely mechanical way. Long term buy and hold would have done as well probably but it would have resulted in an unbalanced portfolio. As I said earlier, it all depends on your timescale and holding period.

Dod

Actually, had I just bought one lot of shares and sold the two lots of rights, the return would have been an IRR of 11.3%.

TJH


That is an important point I think. Not that much different from what you actually did. I think it shows as usual that time in the market (fundamentally a LTBH policy) is the important bit. As is well known, you have a means of avoiding holdings getting too unbalanced and that works as well.

For decent underlying businesses it is the long term nature of holding the share that matters. Obviously, if you are a master at timing you can make more money.

Dod

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Re: Smith(DS) PLC (SMDS)

#510967

Postby BullDog » June 30th, 2022, 6:59 pm

My word, how things can get a lot cheaper when you already think something is cheap. SMDS down over 5% just today. Hold on tight, white knuckle ride ahead :o

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Re: Smith(DS) PLC (SMDS)

#511024

Postby Steveam » June 30th, 2022, 10:52 pm

Thx for highlighting this. My best investments have come from long holding periods and good buy prices. I’m likely to hold SMDS long term and this is looking to be a good price. I thought it was a good investment at 25% higher share price - it’s now looking very attractive (as are a number of others).

Best wishes,

Steve

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Re: Smith(DS) PLC (SMDS)

#511053

Postby BullDog » July 1st, 2022, 7:42 am

Steveam wrote:Thx for highlighting this. My best investments have come from long holding periods and good buy prices. I’m likely to hold SMDS long term and this is looking to be a good price. I thought it was a good investment at 25% higher share price - it’s now looking very attractive (as are a number of others).

Best wishes,

Steve

You're welcome. Yes, I bought in around 299p a few days ago having sold out a while ago at around 430p. I will enjoy the moderately decent yield until we see North of 400p when I shall be looking to sell again. This share isn't one I wish to hold in the forever portfolio. Well done if you've been patient to buy here. I am always too early to for my own good, but I do OK overall.

idpickering
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Re: Smith(DS) PLC (SMDS)

#527855

Postby idpickering » September 6th, 2022, 7:49 am

Trading Statement.

Strong growth in profits and returns underpinned by excellent customer relationships, continued price recovery and good cost and cash management

· Overall trading in line with our expectations driven by pricing momentum and good cost control.

· Corrugated box volumes in Q1 declined slightly on a like for like basis, as expected and against growth in the comparative quarter of 13%; we continue to expect growth of at least 2% for the full year.

· Virtually all input costs, including energy, have increased significantly.

· Energy cost increases substantially mitigated by efficiency initiatives and by long-term hedging programme.

· Currently more than 90% natural gas costs hedged for FY23 and c.80% for FY24 with costs being recovered through increased packaging pricing.

· Long term supplier relationships and o ther cost management programmes ongoing to mitigate inflation.

· Continuing strong operating cashflow generation.

· Our outlook for FY23 remains unchanged with an expectation of a significant improvement in performance.

Miles Roberts, Group Chief Executive, said:

"We have started the financial year very strongly, despite the current macro-economic conditions. We are focusing on ensuring the highest levels of security of supply and customer service and are very pleased with the ongoing support we receive from both our customer and supplier base. Whilst the industrial sector is showing some weakness, our FMCG business remains resilient.

The increased profitability and cash generation is being driven by improving efficiency and cost increase mitigation as well as successfully continuing to raise packaging prices. Overall returns on capital remain within our medium term target.

As we enter the second quarter, we are very mindful of the challenging economic environment in which we operate and the impact it has on both our customers and colleagues. However, our operating plans and progress to date continue to give us confidence in our outlook for FY23."


https://www.investegate.co.uk/smith--ds ... 00053421Y/

Ian.

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Re: Smith(DS) PLC (SMDS)

#528012

Postby Newroad » September 6th, 2022, 4:57 pm

Hi All.

I just bought in today at £2.69.

Let's see how they go!

Regards, Newroad

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Re: Smith(DS) PLC (SMDS)

#528467

Postby dealtn » September 8th, 2022, 8:50 am

My concerns are on what is not being said and between the lines. I would be worried about margin squeeze here and the ongoing ability to fully pass on cost increases. Still the shares are cheap on many metrics so there is some protection, but not one for me.

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Re: Smith(DS) PLC (SMDS)

#528498

Postby BullDog » September 8th, 2022, 9:47 am

It's encouraging that DS Smith are pretty well hedged for their gas. Very wise move by them. Paper/card making is highly energy intensive.

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Re: Smith(DS) PLC (SMDS)

#528514

Postby dealtn » September 8th, 2022, 10:06 am

BullDog wrote:It's encouraging that DS Smith are pretty well hedged for their gas. Very wise move by them. Paper/card making is highly energy intensive.


Yes. So what happens as we enter 2023, then 2024, then ...

Either they pay for "expensive" hedging, or they are exposed to an unknown, but likely higher than current (hedged) price. Either outcome looks like a hit to margins to me. In theory the stock market is a forward looking judgement on the future, not the present.

Bouleversee
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Re: Smith(DS) PLC (SMDS)

#528521

Postby Bouleversee » September 8th, 2022, 10:30 am

From Citywire this morning:

"Time to revisit DS Smith, says Berenberg
Packaging group DS Smith (SMDS) is ‘off to a good start’ in its 2023 financial year and Berenberg says it is ‘worth revisiting’.

Analyst Lydia Kenny retained her ‘buy’ recommendation and target price of 415p on the stock, which closed up 1.1% at 275p on Wednesday."
(https://citywire.com/funds-insider/news ... fea=362428)

No idea how reliable she is, however.

idpickering
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Re: Smith(DS) PLC (SMDS)

#536207

Postby idpickering » October 10th, 2022, 7:39 am

Trading Statement.

Trading continues to be very good and consistent with the trends described in our AGM trading statement. We now expect adjusted operating profit for the half year to 31 October 2022 of at least £400 million with strong cash generation and progress against all our key financial ratios. Accordingly, overall performance for the current full financial year is expected to be ahead of our previous expectations.

Revenue growth has been very strong which, together with effective cost mitigation, has driven the improved profitability, despite slightly lower like for like corrugated box volumes.

Miles Roberts, Group Chief Executive, said:

"I am very pleased with the performance in the year to date and the momentum in our business. We remain focussed on delivering for our customers and managing our costs in an inflationary environment. While the macro-economic outlook remains uncertain, performance this year is ahead of our previous expectations and we look forward to the remainder of the year with confidence."


https://www.investegate.co.uk/smith--ds ... 00072576C/

Ian.


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