Unilever (ULVR)

[Dod101]

All of that leaves Lindsell Train as more or less the biggest active fund manager in the picture. Interesting. Where is Nelson Peltz?

Dod

Often these corporate activists do not actually own the shares, they hold some sort of derivative.That is what Edward Bramson did when trying to stir up Barclays (which he eventually gave up on). So Peltz probably does not hold shares as such.

If that leaves Lindsell Train with all of 0.9%, I can't see Alain Dope being too worried about what they think!

I agree but on the other hand, Lindsell Train has a decent public profile and there plenty of other shareholders on the register. But that is not I think the real point. Unilever knows that there are predators out there having received one approach some time back so they are not too big to fall and were they for instance to want to raise cash for an acquisition themselves, they would want to be in good standing with the investment community. As it is the share price is more or less back to where it was in 2017 at the time of the Kraft Heinz bid. That should be of concern.

Dod

[TheMotorcycleBoy]

All of that leaves Lindsell Train as more or less the biggest active fund manager in the picture. Interesting. Where is Nelson Peltz?

Dod

Often these corporate activists do not actually own the shares, they hold some sort of derivative.That is what Edward Bramson did when trying to stir up Barclays (which he eventually gave up on). So Peltz probably does not hold shares as such.

If that leaves Lindsell Train with all of 0.9%, I can't see Alain Dope being too worried about what they think!

I agree but on the other hand, Lindsell Train has a decent public profile and there plenty of other shareholders on the register. But that is not I think the real point. Unilever knows that there are predators out there having received one approach some time back so they are not too big to fall and were they for instance to want to raise cash for an acquisition themselves, they would want to be in good standing with the investment community. As it is the share price is more or less back to where it was in 2017 at the time of the Kraft Heinz bid. That should be of concern.

Dod

Would ULVR being acquired right now actually make things any worse?

Matt

[Dod101]

All of that leaves Lindsell Train as more or less the biggest active fund manager in the picture. Interesting. Where is Nelson Peltz?

Dod

Often these corporate activists do not actually own the shares, they hold some sort of derivative.That is what Edward Bramson did when trying to stir up Barclays (which he eventually gave up on). So Peltz probably does not hold shares as such.

If that leaves Lindsell Train with all of 0.9%, I can't see Alain Dope being too worried about what they think!

I agree but on the other hand, Lindsell Train has a decent public profile and there plenty of other shareholders on the register. But that is not I think the real point. Unilever knows that there are predators out there having received one approach some time back so they are not too big to fall and were they for instance to want to raise cash for an acquisition themselves, they would want to be in good standing with the investment community. As it is the share price is more or less back to where it was in 2017 at the time of the Kraft Heinz bid. That should be of concern.

Dod

Would ULVR being acquired right now actually make things any worse?

Matt

No. I meant it should be of concern to the company if it would prefer to remain independent, or if they would like to raise capital themselves or since the share price is often used as a measure of success, a sign that they are not doing very well.

Dod

[ADrunkenMarcus]

I paid just over 900p (I think). Return of about 6.1% p.a. plus dividends. I'd guess 3%-ish for the dividends (I'm at a wake on my phone and on my 8th Special Brew, so detailed figures are a bit of a challenge )

Thanks. Not a brilliant performance but then hardly a bad one, either - total return p.a. is probably around 9%+.

Best wishes


Mark.

[ADrunkenMarcus]

No. I meant it should be of concern to the company if it would prefer to remain independent

For a company like Unilever, poor performance is a case of fix or be fixed IMHO.

The present dividend yield is about 4.4 percent and amply covered by a free cash flow yield of 5.7 percent. Consensus forecasts indicate a prospective free cash flow yield of 8.6 percent by 2024. If they can get their act together it could be an attractive entry point for the patient investor.

Best wishes


Mark

[Dod101]

No. I meant it should be of concern to the company if it would prefer to remain independent

For a company like Unilever, poor performance is a case of fix or be fixed IMHO.

The present dividend yield is about 4.4 percent and amply covered by a free cash flow yield of 5.7 percent. Consensus forecasts indicate a prospective free cash flow yield of 8.6 percent by 2024. If they can get their act together it could be an attractive entry point for the patient investor.

Best wishes


Mark

What exactly is wrong with Unilever? We are at a stage now when everyone seems to be jumping to the conclusion that Unilever and its management is a basket case. It reaches a stage where people are not sure why just that it is the commonly held view so it must be right. I hold and have no intention of selling.

Dod

[absolutezero]

What exactly is wrong with Unilever?

It's run by people who are out of their depth.
The share price keeps falling.
Until one or the other or both of those change, the investment case is limited.

[ADrunkenMarcus]

I hold and have no intention of selling.

Me neither. I bought in 2013 to buy and hold. I still have all my shares. If I had spare cash, I might even add, because it's the cheapest holding in my portfolio on a free cash flow yield basis.

Best wishes


Mark.

[ADrunkenMarcus]

What exactly is wrong with Unilever?

It's run by people who are out of their depth.
The share price keeps falling.
Until one or the other or both of those change, the investment case is limited.

The share price is something distinct from the business (although naturally there is a clear link, because poor perceived or real business performance will result in a weak market valuation). From memory, Unilever was trading over £53 a share as recently as 2019 and now it's under £34. That is quite a marked difference IMHO.

Best wishes


Mark

[idpickering]

Thanks. Not a brilliant performance but then hardly a bad one, either - total return p.a. is probably around 9%+.

Best wishes

Mark.

I'd be happy enough with that tbh. I intend topping up my ULVR holdings soon. imho, ULVR are a quality company on sale in sp terms currently.

Ian.

[Dod101]

What exactly is wrong with Unilever?

It's run by people who are out of their depth.
The share price keeps falling.
Until one or the other or both of those change, the investment case is limited.

The share price is something distinct from the business (although naturally there is a clear link, because poor perceived or real business performance will result in a weak market valuation). From memory, Unilever was trading over £53 a share as recently as 2019 and now it's under £34. That is quite a marked difference IMHO.

Best wishes


Mark

Yes It was September 2019. My point is exactly what Mark has highlighted, the share price reflects investors perception , not necessarily the situation.

It has to be of concern though that the market in general does not think much of Unilever because the market is after all the collective views of investors in general, not those of an investor sitting at his PC in the depths of the Scottish countryside. The problems as I see them are that there is a perception that Unilever is being run by people who are out of their depth, that the company will be unable to push through price increases to at least compensate for rising input costs, and that they seem to be lacking a clear strategy for the business, being more interested in green and 'woke' issues than sales. None of these seem to me to be proved, except possibly the last and even then I am sure they will dispute that.

OTOH they have 13 brands with sales in excess of Euro 1 billion and they tell us in the Annual Report that in aggregate they grew sales by 6.4%. Overall underlying profit grew only modestly at 2.9%, not helped by profit margins being under pressure. it is this latter point on which I think the jury is out and at the half year results we might get a better idea of how they are coping in this important area.

Dod

[TheMotorcycleBoy]

No. I meant it should be of concern to the company if it would prefer to remain independent

For a company like Unilever, poor performance is a case of fix or be fixed IMHO.

The present dividend yield is about 4.4 percent and amply covered by a free cash flow yield of 5.7 percent. Consensus forecasts indicate a prospective free cash flow yield of 8.6 percent by 2024. If they can get their act together it could be an attractive entry point for the patient investor.

Best wishes


Mark

What exactly is wrong with Unilever? We are at a stage now when everyone seems to be jumping to the conclusion that Unilever and its management is a basket case. It reaches a stage where people are not sure why just that it is the commonly held view so it must be right.I hold and have no intention of selling.

Dod

I think it's just that people have realised that they can't aggressively grow their earnings, and without holding the trump card of an agile management, the market has re-rated them.

Probably not a great deal massively wrong with them, just nothing to shout about, so they've re-rated to the multiple of a nothing-to-shout-about firm.

Apologies for my overly technical explanation,
Matt

[Dod101]

I think I said that I was writing to the Chairman, which I have done. Naturally I have not got a response from him but at least the investor relations people have responded in the way any of us would expect, that is fairly blandly. However I do not mind and they tell me they have passed on my letter to the Chairman. We should all be doing this sort of thing if we are unhappy because it is like a dripping tap and eventually something may stick.

I plan to attend the AGM in early May and will try to meet the great man there. As shareholders they need to be reminded that we exist and what our views are.

Dod

[bluedonkey]

Where is the AGM?

[monabri]

Where is the AGM?

Annual General Meeting 2022
The 2022 Annual General Meeting of Unilever PLC will be held at 2.30pm BST on Wednesday 4 May 2022 at the Queen Elizabeth II Centre in Westminster, London SW1P 3EE.

[bluedonkey]

Where is the AGM?

Annual General Meeting 2022
The 2022 Annual General Meeting of Unilever PLC will be held at 2.30pm BST on Wednesday 4 May 2022 at the Queen Elizabeth II Centre in Westminster, London SW1P 3EE.

That might be convenient. My holding is in a SIPP, do they validate your ownership prior to entry (never been to an AGM).

[Dod101]

monabri has beaten me to it. This is a large auditorium with lots of space all round. Quite convenient. HSBC used to use it but I think they have moved their AGM this year. For bluedonkey to gain entry he should probably be in touch with his SIPP provider and they ought to be able to give him advice and accreditation. My shares (or some of them anyway) are still held in certificated form so I can just turn up with some form of identity. However the easiest way is to bring my attendance card which I have got by post.

Much of it is boring but at least we can see and hear the personalities and have the opportunity to ask questions if we like.

Dod

[idpickering]

Sadly, living where I do now, up in Orkney, attending such a meeting is out of the question for me. However, my regarding ULVR as being a class act, and still planning to top up my ULVR holdings next month, still stand.

Ian.

[idpickering]

1st Quarter 2022 Trading Statement.

· Underlying sales growth of 7.3%, with 8.3% price and (1.0)% volume

· Turnover increased by 11.8%, including a currency impact of 3.5%

· Quarterly dividend maintained at € 0.4268 per share

· First €750 million tranche of up to €3 billion share buyback programme commenced

Alan Jope: Chief Executive Officer statement

"We are executing well in a very challenging input cost environment. Underlying sales growth of 7.3% was driven by strong pricing, with a limited impact on volume in the quarter. This performance was delivered against the backdrop of significant rises in input costs that have further accelerated through the first three months of the year, and the human tragedy of the war in Ukraine.

The delivery of another solid quarter of sales growth builds on the improved growth momentum that we achieved in 2021 and is underpinned by Unilever's increased focus on operational excellence as well as disciplined adherence to our chosen strategic priorities. We are maintaining strong investment in our top brands, growing our thirteen billion+ Euro brands by 8.8% in the quarter. eCommerce sales now represent 14% of turnover following another quarter of strong double-digit growth. Our priority markets of the USA, India and China all grew competitively. We continue to reshape our portfolio into high growth spaces, with Prestige Beauty and Functional Nutrition again growing strongly. We remain on track to deliver the previously announced, simpler, more category-focused organisation structure on 1 July 2022.

There is more to do as we navigate our business through unprecedented cost inflation, but we are making good progress. We are committed to sustaining this step-up in our growth and competitiveness."

And later;

The Board has declared a quarterly interim dividend of Q1 2022 of £0.3590 per Unilever PLC ordinary share or €0.4268 per Unilever PLC ordinary share at the applicable exchange rate issued by WM/Reuters on 26 April 2022.

The following amounts will be paid in respect of this quarterly interim dividend on the relevant payment date:

Per Unilever PLC ordinary share (traded on the London Stock Exchange): £ 0.3590

Ex Div 19 May 22, paid 16 Jun 22

https://www.investegate.co.uk/unilever- ... 00096134J/

[ADrunkenMarcus]

The results were better than forecast with higher underlying sales growth, comprising higher pricing and lower volume declines than anticipated.

They maintained their dividend, whereas there is usually a raise in April; I suspect they will do what they did in 2020, which was maintain the dividend and then raise the fourth quarter one slightly to maintain year-on-year growth. That seems sensible enough under current circumstances and Unilever's dividend yield is at over 4 percent, which is a historically high level.

Best wishes


Mark.