TUI Travel (TUI)

[idpickering]

This from TMF written by Alan Oscroft.

Is this stock a bargain or a falling knife to avoid after a 10% slump?

Shares in TUI Travel (LSE: TUI) took a 10% hit Friday morning when it told us it now expects to see €200m (£173m) knocked off its profits this year after the grounding of Boeing’s 737 Max fleet. Instead of the previously “broadly flat” earnings outlook, the company is now expected to record a 17% EBITA fall.

The planes have been stopped from flying after their fancy stall-prevention system has been implicated in crashes of Lion Air and Ethiopian Airlines flights, and TUI’s estimated costs are based on a return to service no later than mid-July. If that doesn’t happen, EBITA could fall by as much as 26%.

This morning’s share price dip accelerated the fall that’s been going on for the past year, with TUI shares now down 35% since their May 2018 peak.

https://www.fool.co.uk/investing/2019/0 ... -10-slump/

[OLTB]

Morning all

Half year results here https://www.investegate.co.uk/article.a ... 70017ERMGX and good luck ploughing through all the figures!

They are in my HYP and after a robust start this morning, the yield looks to be increasing...

Cheers, OLTB.

[monabri]

Morning all

Half year results here https://www.investegate.co.uk/article.a ... 70017ERMGX and good luck ploughing through all the figures!

They are in my HYP and after a robust start this morning, the yield looks to be increasing...

Cheers, OLTB.

And now the yield is decreasing....

[idpickering]

Pre-Close Trading Update

Chief Executive of TUI Group, Friedrich Joussen, commented:

"On Monday 23 September 2019, our competitor Thomas Cook UK Plc and associated UK entities entered into compulsory liquidation. TUI is preparing measures to support. Where TUI customers are booked on Thomas Cook Airlines flights and these are no longer operated, replacement flights will be offered. We are currently assessing the short term impact of Thomas Cook's insolvency under the current circumstances, on the final week of our FY19 financial result.

https://www.investegate.co.uk/tui-ag--t ... 0002ELJHV/

[idpickering]

Quarterly Statement 1 October 2019 - 30 June 2020

Here;

https://www.investegate.co.uk/tui-ag--t ... 0008ETMGR/

[idpickering]

Pre-Close Trading & C-19 Update

C-19 Highlights


•Prior to the C-19 pandemic, January 2020 saw the best booking month in the company's history
•TUI was on track to deliver a strong result for financial year 2020
•Since the worldwide travel suspension in March, significant self-help actions have been taken to address the impact of the C-19 pandemic across the business
•Liquidity swiftly managed by securing state aid from the German Federal government
•Cash fixed costs reduced by more than 70% during the immediate lockdown period
•Comprehensive compensation agreement finalised with Boeing
•Completed the Hapag-Lloyd Cruises disposal to TUI Cruises joint venture in a challenging environment
•First tour operator to successfully restart operations across multiple markets and destinations, helped by the advantage of our integrated and diversified business model
•Global Realignment Programme launched to permanently reduce overhead cost base by 30% across the Group
•Summer 2020 and Winter 2020/21 capacity reduced as a result of recent volatile changes in travel restrictions
•Overall FY20 Q4 cash outflow remains as expected
•As at 20 September 2020, cash and available facilities on a pro forma basis including additional stabilisation package, would amount to €2.0bn

Chief Executive of TUI Group, Friedrich Joussen, commented:

"We have successfully restarted our operations; customers are enjoying their holidays with newly adapted hygiene protocols and we have taken 1.4m customers on their holidays since restart1. Destination availability at present is highly influenced by government policy and development of the pandemic, meaning the environment remains volatile, and is likely to remain so for the next few quarters.

"Leisure holidays remain important to customers and have been one of the most missed activities2 during the pandemic, with leisure travel expected to recover faster than business travel. Our integrated model, underpinned by our trusted and leading brand, offering differentiated products and attractive value propositions, combined with proven flexibility in a volatile environment, means we are strategically well placed to benefit as leisure travel volume recovers over the coming seasons.

"We are on track to complete the additional stabilisation package provided by the German Federal government as announced on 12 August with waiver approval secured from our Senior Notes bond holders. Our Global Realignment Programme is firmly underway with digitalisation initiatives accelerated throughout the Group. TUI will emerge a stronger, leaner, more digitalised business and is well positioned to benefit from the expected recovery."

https://www.investegate.co.uk/tui-ag--t ... 0025ERHXE/

[88V8]

I had/have a punt on TUI.
If I'd had the sense to buy when they were at bottom in March, but nooooo.

This all sounds quite comforting, and like the rest of my Travel/Leisure punt they may eventually come good, or go bust.
At the moment, they're part of my tax planning, if I need to call up some losses.

V8

[idpickering]

Quarterly Statement 1 October 2020 - 31 December 2020

Completion of third support package for €1.8bn including fully subscribed rights issue
•Liquidity bridged to Summer 2021 travel recovery
•Q1 result reflects minimal operations due to extended travel restrictions
•Proven delivery of safe holidays - 2.5m customers since restart, 7-day incidence rate1 averages 0.54 per 100k guests
•2.8m customers booked for Summer 2021 season - 80% capacity maintained
•Early redemption of €300m Senior Notes (due Oct 2021) announced post balance sheet date on 15 January 2021, ensuring extension of major debt maturity to July 2022

https://www.investegate.co.uk/tui-ag--t ... 0017ERATG/

[monabri]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/0 ... d-boycott/

"The main shareholder in TUI, the world’s largest tour operator, is Alexey Mordashov, one of Putin’s major allies and one of several individuals being directly threatened with sanctions by the EU. The company is already believed to be under pressure because of Mordashov’s stance over the Ukraine conflict and consumer action could increase this further.

TUI Group spokesman Kuzey Alexander Esener has attempted to play down Mordashov’s connection to the company, instead emphasising how it is headquartered in Germany. “He [Mordashov] only has a 34 per cent stake; 66 per cent of the company belongs to shareholders from the EU, the US funds, as well as private investors,” says Esener."

I won't be booking through TUI.

[idpickering]

Q4 Pre-Close Trading Update.

Summer 2022 set to close in line with our expectations, later booking pattern continues into Winter with strong ASP

Q4 expected to deliver further strong progress - Hotels & Resorts set to deliver its 5th consecutive positive quarter. Cruise and TUI Musement with significant improvement. Markets & Airlines significantly profitable despite airport disruptions


Market & Airlines

Overall Summer 2022 programme1 totals 12.9m bookings, an increase of 1.4m since Q3 update, with bookings at 91% of Summer 2019 levels. The key departure months of July and August closed at 94% of Summer 2019 levels
ASP continues to hold up strongly at +18% versus Summer 2019, which will help to soften the impact from the current higher inflationary environment
UK Summer 2022 cumulative bookings remain +4% ahead of Summer 2019, with booking momentum in Germany and Netherlands well ahead of Summer 2019 levels since our Q3 update
Flight disruption costs remain at elevated levels but continued to improve through Q4
Winter 2022/23 bookings1 are at an early stage and our current assumption is for a Winter programme close to normalised pre-pandemic levels with the option to flexibly adjust capacity in line with customer demand. We will leverage our flexible and integrated business model to ensure we provide our customers not only with the best winter holiday experience but also the assurance that TUI remains the best choice for holiday travel
Against this background, Winter 2022/23 bookings1 stand at 78% of Winter 2018/19 levels with the near departure months of November and December at 81%. To date Winter ASP is higher at 26%
As usual, the UK, with 36% of the programme sold, is the most advanced booked at +9% and ASP up +22% versus Winter 2018/19
Q1 bookings, which represent a mix of late Summer and early Winter, are 54% sold compared to around 60% in a normalised year
As in Summer, we continue to see a trend towards a higher share of short-term bookings for Winter and strong pricing, confirming solid customer demand for holiday travel

https://www.investegate.co.uk/tui-ag--t ... 0036EUQKA/

Ian

[idpickering]

INTERIM REPORT Q1 2023 - 1 OCTOBER 2022 – 31 DECEMBER 2022

https://www.investegate.co.uk/tui-ag--t ... 0010EYQXB/

Ian (No holding).

[monabri]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/20 ... -exchange/

"Europe’s biggest travel operator said it had been approached by shareholders concerned about whether its current strategy of holding a dual listing on the London and Frankfurt Stock Exchange is “optimal and advantageous”.

Bosses said there had been a “notable” shift in the ownership of shares from the UK to Germany over the last four years.

As a result, they will consider a vote on leaving the London Stock Exchange at the company’s AGM in February.

The resolution would need the backing of 75pc of shareholders to take effect."

[idpickering]

TUI AG: Q1 2024 Interim Report 1 October 2023 – 31 December 2023

https://www.investegate.co.uk/announcem ... 3-/8034216

Ian (No holding).