Marston's (MARS)

[barchid]

dealtn
We clearly have two different viewpoints, if I see a sale (of various properties) at under book in a generally good pre covid business climate I become slightly wary of the accuracy of the accounts.
You look at them as 2 separate items BS & P&L.
Perfectly respectable positions but I prefer to stick to mine as it has stood me in good stead over the years.

Scrumpyjack
Your points are well made but I still have to ask myself, that if these premises are so likely to be "income accretive" as per their rns, I wonder why Brains are happy to unload management of them. Economies of scale I get, but do bear in mind Marstons is now a company with only 40% control of their brewery now & do have to meet earnings targets to receive dividends (I believe) from Carlsberg. So perhaps they were looking for pubs rather than being offered them ?
I realise my view is somewhat cynical, but who knows ?

[dealtn]

dealtn
We clearly have two different viewpoints, if I see a sale (of various properties) at under book in a generally good pre covid business climate I become slightly wary of the accuracy of the accounts.
You look at them as 2 separate items BS & P&L.
Perfectly respectable positions but I prefer to stick to mine as it has stood me in good stead over the years.

No I look at them as 3 items!

Scrumpyjack
Your points are well made but I still have to ask myself, that if these premises are so likely to be "income accretive" as per their rns, I wonder why Brains are happy to unload management of them. Economies of scale I get, but do bear in mind Marstons is now a company with only 40% control of their brewery now & do have to meet earnings targets to receive dividends (I believe) from Carlsberg. So perhaps they were looking for pubs rather than being offered them ?
I realise my view is somewhat cynical, but who knows ?

Did you read the RNS? Do you really wonder why Brains are doing the deal? I doubt they are happy either, having an estate of pubs producing little cash and ongoing expenses. What alternatives do they have when they are "under significant financial pressure" and have "immediate funding requirements"?

[scrumpyjack]

dealtn
We clearly have two different viewpoints, if I see a sale (of various properties) at under book in a generally good pre covid business climate I become slightly wary of the accuracy of the accounts.
You look at them as 2 separate items BS & P&L.
Perfectly respectable positions but I prefer to stick to mine as it has stood me in good stead over the years.

Scrumpyjack
Your points are well made but I still have to ask myself, that if these premises are so likely to be "income accretive" as per their rns, I wonder why Brains are happy to unload management of them. Economies of scale I get, but do bear in mind Marstons is now a company with only 40% control of their brewery now & do have to meet earnings targets to receive dividends (I believe) from Carlsberg. So perhaps they were looking for pubs rather than being offered them ?
I realise my view is somewhat cynical, but who knows ?

Barchid

I do not hold Marstons and as I said looked at them a couple of years ago but did not like their balance sheet so decided to steer clear. They have been hugely damaged by the lockdowns etc and I think at one point the market thought they might not survive. But they did get through the low point hence the bounce back to a point which is still less than half the sp when I looked at them. I will continue to steer clear because IMO they were a fundamentally weak business 2 years ago and they are a lot weaker now.

[johnhemming]

I sold out some time ago. I think Tullow equity is a better bet than Marstons. (I hold Tullow debt).

[GrahamPlatt]

Way, way off topic here, but please excuse.
Just been listening to Sandi Toksvig on R4 about Hygge. There she is in her cabin in the woods, when who should knock on the door but Brian Cox. They converse, and of course Niels Bohr is mentioned. Sandi has a story about him: “Do you know what Denmark did when he won the Nobel Prize?” Cox: “No”. “Well they asked him what he’d like. He lived in a house near the Carlsberg brewery, so he asked if he could have a pipe fitted, from the brewery, so they did.” Wonderful!
Beer & physics seem to go together. JP Joule used to be a home brewer, in Manchester.

[barchid]

dealtn
I am really sorry that on a civilised board such as this that you can not agree to differ.
Like most investors I am very aware that accounting standards are not what they were but imo particularly so from Enron/Andersens through to slippages of care much closer to home they have become progressively worse.
Despite that I am a little surprised that you seem to pass over the matter of a collection of properties being sold off at a not insignificant discount to book in a generally benign climate, little more than 12 months ago, and consequently appear to find my gentle cynicism on Marstons official statements a trifle odd.
Nevertheless this is the season of goodwill and I assume that you are displaying your goodwill to the management, which is of course your right.
Not wishing to bore other posters I am happy to make this my final comment on this deal.

[idpickering]

Annual Report and Accounts and Notice of Annual General Meeting 2021

The following documents have now been posted or otherwise made available to shareholders:

· 2020 Annual Report and Accounts;

· Notice of Annual General Meeting to be held on 27 January 2021 ("AGM Notice");

· Proxy forms for the 2021 Annual General Meeting.

https://www.investegate.co.uk/marston-- ... 07388655J/

[MrFoolish]

Way, way off topic here, but please excuse.
Just been listening to Sandi Toksvig on R4 about Hygge. There she is in her cabin in the woods, when who should knock on the door but Brian Cox. They converse, and of course Niels Bohr is mentioned. Sandi has a story about him: “Do you know what Denmark did when he won the Nobel Prize?” Cox: “No”. “Well they asked him what he’d like. He lived in a house near the Carlsberg brewery, so he asked if he could have a pipe fitted, from the brewery, so they did.” Wonderful!

Was it a gas pipe? Can't imagine why he'd want their beer TBH.

[johnhemming]

Way, way off topic here, but please excuse.
Just been listening to Sandi Toksvig on R4 about Hygge. There she is in her cabin in the woods, when who should knock on the door but Brian Cox. They converse, and of course Niels Bohr is mentioned. Sandi has a story about him: “Do you know what Denmark did when he won the Nobel Prize?” Cox: “No”. “Well they asked him what he’d like. He lived in a house near the Carlsberg brewery, so he asked if he could have a pipe fitted, from the brewery, so they did.” Wonderful!

Was it a gas pipe? Can't imagine why he'd want their beer TBH.

Arguably not true.
https://vinepair.com/articles/carlsberg ... -pipeline/

Although Carlsberg did give him a house to live in.

[csearle]

Maybe I wasn't clear enough, for which I apologise, if you can't understand my comment.

Moderator Message:
Please try to refrain from personal attacks like these. It really isn't a stylish look and might get your posts deleted. Thanks - Chris

[TUK020]

I bought into these guys a couple of years ago on the basis of a change in management strategy that I thought would pay off. I didn't keep notes from when I looked at them, but from memory:

Originally they had:
- brewing business - low margin, but not particularly capital intensive, fairly stable
- pubs business - busy growing this, but taking a lot of debt on to acquire properties and refurbish them.

A couple of years ago:
Switched focus to pruning their list of pubs, selling down ones that they didn't think they could fix, paying off debt. Investing in refurbishment of those pubs they thought would drive margins. Not surprising the clear out generated some sales below book value.
I liked the switch in focus to paying down debt, and thought it would lead to a much stronger business.
I bought into the business on this basis.

When lockdown hit:
everything went into freefall, I thought they were a goner.
The joint venture with Carlsberg seemed a smoothly executed move to swap a sub scale brewing operation for a share in a much more stable operation. I decided to sit on my shareholding, rather than unload, thinking I would give the new management a chance (and being reluctant to take a bit capital hit on the share price).

The deal with Brains:
seems like an opportunistic move to expand the business on a capital light basis, and so not expand the debt, and capitalise on the misfortune of a competitor.

Outlook
the moves made by MARS over the last couple of years all seem to make sense, but they are operating in a horrendous situation.
I worry that although they can shutter large parts of the business while they wait out the lockdown, they still have significant debt to service.
If they make it through COVID, then I think we will be in a world of serious partying summer 2021, and they will start coining it. But that's a "if" to worry about.

[Danlos]

I've just bought into these guys, and my reasons are similar; I'm perceiving the series of lockdowns as bottling up demand. We may still be six months away from dispensing with restrictions, but as soon as we have, I'm expecting partytime for whichever hospitality/pubs/restaurants are still in business. I'll also add in public transport to this too, which are operating at an enforced reduced capacity. There's also the possibility of post vaccine incentives which can help to increase sales (Eat out to help out Mk2?)

The current share price is 40% down from the years pre-lockdown high, but has been steadily climbing since November, and I'm expecting that within 12 months that it'll be at least back to the Jan 2020 price of 125p. I could be wrong, and if so, feel free to point out the current price in 12 months if they're still around, but sometimes you just have to go with your gut and a healthy dose of optimism.

Wishing everyone the best for the new year.

Danlos

[AsleepInYorkshire]

Pub chain Marston's receives takeover approach

AiY

[dealtn]

Interesting development!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55852057

Shares up about 20%

[tjh290633]

See also: https://www.investegate.co.uk/marston-- ... 24233843N/

Statement regarding press speculation

The Board of Marston's PLC (" Marston's " or the "Company") notes the press speculation and confirms that it has today received an unsolicited non-binding proposal from Platinum Equity Advisors, LLC ("Platinum") regarding a possible cash offer for the entire issued, and to be issued, share capital of Marston's (the "Proposal").

The Board will evaluate the Proposal with its advisers and a further announcement will be made in due course. There can be no certainty that any firm offer will be made for the Company, nor as to the terms on which any firm offer might be made.

In accordance with Rule 2.6(a) of the Code, Platinum, is required, by no later than 5.00 p.m. (London time) on Friday 26th February 2021, being 28 days after today's date, to either announce a firm intention to make an offer for the Company in accordance with Rule 2.7 of the Code or announce that it does not intend to make an offer, in which case the announcement will be treated as a statement to which Rule 2.8 of the Code applies. This deadline can be extended with the consent of the Takeover Panel (the "Panel") in accordance with Rule 2.6(c) of the Code.

TJH

[lansdown]

An update from Marston:-
https://www.investegate.co.uk/article.a ... 6067N&fe=1

UPDATE ON POSSIBLE OFFER
Further to the announcement on Friday, 29th January 2021 that the Board of Marston's PLC ("Marston's" or the "Company") had received an unsolicited non-binding proposal from Platinum Equity Advisors, LLC ("Platinum") for the entire issued, and to be issued, share capital of Marston's (the "Proposal"), the Company provides the following update.

The Board of Marston's has considered the Proposal of 105 pence per Marston's share with its advisers, and unanimously rejected the Proposal on the basis that it very significantly undervalues Marston's. The Proposal followed two earlier proposals at 88 pence and 95 pence per share in December 2020, both of which were received prior to the Brains transaction, and were unanimously rejected by the Board.

The Proposal represents a 19% discount to the Company's share price at the start of 2020, pre-COVID 19; and since that time the Company has completed the transformative joint venture with Carlsberg to create the Carlsberg Marston's Brewing Company, which realised significant value on completion and is anticipated to continue to do so as the benefits of the joint venture are realised. In December 2020 the Company also announced an agreement to operate 156 high quality pubs within the SA Brain estate in South and West Wales, in a transaction which is expected to be accretive to earnings in the first full year of trading.

In accordance with Rule 2.6(a) of the Code, Platinum, is required, by no later than 5.00 p.m. (London time) on Friday, 26th February 2021, being 28 days after Friday's announcement, to either announce a firm intention to make an offer for the Company in accordance with Rule 2.7 of the Code or announce that it does not intend to make an offer, in which case the announcement will be treated as a statement to which Rule 2.8 of the Code applies. This deadline can be extended with the consent of the Takeover Panel (the "Panel") in accordance with Rule 2.6(c) of the Code.

[dealtn]

An update from Marston:-
https://www.investegate.co.uk/article.a ... 6067N&fe=1

UPDATE ON POSSIBLE OFFER
Further to the announcement on Friday, 29th January 2021 that the Board of Marston's PLC ("Marston's" or the "Company") had received an unsolicited non-binding proposal from Platinum Equity Advisors, LLC ("Platinum") for the entire issued, and to be issued, share capital of Marston's (the "Proposal"), the Company provides the following update.

The Board of Marston's has considered the Proposal of 105 pence per Marston's share with its advisers, and unanimously rejected the Proposal on the basis that it very significantly undervalues Marston's. The Proposal followed two earlier proposals at 88 pence and 95 pence per share in December 2020, both of which were received prior to the Brains transaction, and were unanimously rejected by the Board.

The Proposal represents a 19% discount to the Company's share price at the start of 2020, pre-COVID 19; and since that time the Company has completed the transformative joint venture with Carlsberg to create the Carlsberg Marston's Brewing Company, which realised significant value on completion and is anticipated to continue to do so as the benefits of the joint venture are realised. In December 2020 the Company also announced an agreement to operate 156 high quality pubs within the SA Brain estate in South and West Wales, in a transaction which is expected to be accretive to earnings in the first full year of trading.

In accordance with Rule 2.6(a) of the Code, Platinum, is required, by no later than 5.00 p.m. (London time) on Friday, 26th February 2021, being 28 days after Friday's announcement, to either announce a firm intention to make an offer for the Company in accordance with Rule 2.7 of the Code or announce that it does not intend to make an offer, in which case the announcement will be treated as a statement to which Rule 2.8 of the Code applies. This deadline can be extended with the consent of the Takeover Panel (the "Panel") in accordance with Rule 2.6(c) of the Code.

Shares at just 85p compared to the (rejected) 105p bid.

Doesn't look like the market gives any credence to a potential counterbid, the Board changing its mind, or the Board creating, and outing, the value itself.

[dealtn]

The Brain transaction now complete.

https://www.investegate.co.uk/marston-s ... 21582222O/

[dealtn]

The bidder walks away following the lack of engagement and no intention to go hostile.

https://www.investegate.co.uk/platinum- ... 00036911O/

The shares drop to 86p. Having turned down 105p the Board need to demonstrate their strategy and get the price back towards the valuation of the bidder to please holders I would think.

[simoan]

The bidder walks away following the lack of engagement and no intention to go hostile.

https://www.investegate.co.uk/platinum- ... 00036911O/

The shares drop to 86p. Having turned down 105p the Board need to demonstrate their strategy and get the price back towards the valuation of the bidder to please holders I would think.

I'll be honest, I thought 105p was a fair price given the long term range of the share price. Even in good times the market didn't really believe it was worth more than 120p. I think the management have a lot to prove and the debt is still too high. Tbh I don't really rate the management.

All the best, Si