Marston's (MARS)

[Danlos]

I've just taken advantage of the day's drop to increase my holding. I still think there's plenty of scope for these to increase when restrictions begin to be lifted.

[csearle]

An update from Marston

I'm sitting on a tiny holding wondering if this take-over would be a good thing or a bad thing. What do peeps think? C.

[Padders72]

An update from Marston

I'm sitting on a tiny holding wondering if this take-over would be a good thing or a bad thing. What do peeps think? C.

If you bought at 30-40p a year ago then a 100-110p take over is a good thing on the basis that the business is dormant, moribund even for the next 6-12 months. If you bought a while back on a HYP basis for the dividend at circa 140-160p then no its not because you feel you are crystallising a loss (and are price anchored). It all depends on your entry point and thus your POV.

This one is perhaps and example of where strategic ignorance is just ignorance maybe.

[csearle]

If you bought at 30-40p a year ago then a 100-110p take over is a good thing on the basis that the business is dormant, moribund even for the next 6-12 months. If you bought a while back on a HYP basis for the dividend at circa 140-160p then no its not because you feel you are crystallising a loss (and are price anchored). It all depends on your entry point and thus your POV.

Thank you. I bought on 9/1/2020 @ 123.115. So I guess that makes me a vote NO campaigner. C.

[GoSeigen]

An update from Marston

I'm sitting on a tiny holding wondering if this take-over would be a good thing or a bad thing. What do peeps think? C.

If you bought at 30-40p a year ago then a 100-110p take over is a good thing on the basis that the business is dormant, moribund even for the next 6-12 months. If you bought a while back on a HYP basis for the dividend at circa 140-160p then no its not because you feel you are crystallising a loss (and are price anchored). It all depends on your entry point and thus your POV.

This one is perhaps and example of where strategic ignorance is just ignorance maybe.

Entry point is irrelevant. I'm pretty happy they weren't taken out at that price and will be adding.

GS

[PrefInvestor]

Entry point is irrelevant. I'm pretty happy they weren't taken out at that price and will be adding.

GS

I looked at MARS in some detail when the JV was first announced. Looking at their 2019 accounts and historical data from what I could see they were not making any money back then when they were operating normally. All of the value in the company looked to be in the property portfolio and little was earned from brewing beer and selling it (plus food of course). Carlsberg UK also looked to be loss making in recent years from what information I was able to find, but I can see the attraction of the JV for them - gets their beer into marstons pubs.

Clearly many people seem to be of the view that they will return to pre pandemic levels. I confess I personally can see no justification for that, though of course Greene King worked out very well for holders there and I’m sure many saw/see Martons as a repeat performance ?.

ATB

Pref

[tjh290633]

https://www.investegate.co.uk/marston-- ... 00049499T/

RESULTS FOR THE 52 WEEKS ENDED 2 OCTOBER 2021*

Financial Highlights                                                         
                                                                             
                               Underlying                    Total*          
                                2021          2020          2021        2020 
                       ------------  ------------  ----------  ------------- 
 Total revenue          GBP423.8m     GBP 821.0m    GBP423.8m   GBP 821.0m   
                       ------------  ------------  ----------  ------------- 
 Total (loss)/profit    GBP(100.0)m   GBP( 22.0)m   GBP119.3m   GBP( 397.1)m 
  before tax                                                                 
                       ------------  ------------  ----------  ------------- 
 (Loss)/earnings per                                                         
  share                 (13.4)p       (1.7)p        25.7p       ( 56.8)p     
                       ------------  ------------  ----------  ------------- 
 Net cash flow          GBP118.1m     GBP 50.5m     GBP118.1m   GBP50.5m     
                       ------------  ------------  ----------  -------------

Dividend

Given the significant disruption to trading in the financial year under review and the potential for continuing uncertainty, the Board has decided not to propose a dividend in respect of financial year 2021. The Board is cognisant of the importance of dividends to many of our shareholders and we continue to review the timing of the resumption of dividend payments in earnest.

One lives in hope.

TJH

[csearle]

One lives in hope.

This one lives in despair. I've been drinking like there's no tomorrow and still they haven't resumed paying dividends! C.

[monabri]

If "Omicron" hadn't popped up, I wonder if a small dividend might have been proposed?

[monabri]

Marston's "Pillar"

https://www.morningadvertiser.co.uk/Art ... m-Marstons

Marston's trialling a new revenue based model with it's tenants.

[Hallucigenia]

Looks rather similar to the Enterprise/Ei/Stonegate Beacon model, more details here :

https://apply.runamarstonspub.co.uk/vac ... rtner.html

Live rent-free in the pub
• Marston’s will pay your utilities for you – lighting, heating and water
• Between us we will agree the wet product range to support your food offer.
• You retain an agreed percentage of all income streams (net of VAT) and have full control over your food offer and accommodation (where applicable)
• Low ingoing costs
• Marston’s will take responsibility for all repairs and decoration both internal and external, (except the private residential accommodation).
• No service charge applies to this agreement
• Have your Broadband, cutting-edge EPOS system and online booking tools (where appropriate) supplied by Marston’s
• Fixtures and fittings would be owned by Marston’s
• Keep 50% of the profits from any gaming machines
• Offer the award-winning range of fantastic Marston’s beers, wines, spirits and minerals
• Have your drinks stock supplied and paid for by Marston’s
• Expert induction training plus on-going training and support from your dedicated Business Development Manager and support teams


Things to consider
You’ll need to put in a £5k deposit, plus legal fees and monies to cover your insuring obligations under the agreement (except building insurance, which we’ll pay for and recharge to you). Also, you’ll want to start thinking about your team; taking care of paying them and all other employment matters. We’re on-hand to offer guidance as you plan your business overheads, like business rates (and your own residential Council Tax).

Before we all sign the agreement and see you heading into a whole new life, you will need to show us proof that you have taken independent financial advice from a suitably qualified accountant on your business plan and professional advice from a solicitor, in accordance with the requirements of the Pubs Code Regulations. And, of course, obtain your personal licence (which we’ll help with) and complete your induction training.

This is a five-year commitment, so you have plenty of time to build a successful business. However, if you do want to leave early, there is a break option in the agreement which entitles you to give six months’ notice to terminate.

[westmoreland9]

it was worth 105p just under a year ago, now apparently just 66p. there's clearly a gap between what it's worth to private equity, who would run it 'properly', and the public markets under current management.

the public markets are struggling to see light at the end of the tunnel with these endless restrictions.

it's a pretty dull, low return business, but it has a tonne of regional property, which has now become highly prized. leverage is high, but there may be further asset disposals that can take place (unsecuritised property, brewing stake, surplus land) that could be easily turned into cash.

[funduffer]

Marstons is a problem in my HYP portfolio. It languishes at 48p, with my average buying price of £1.30. Dividends have stopped.

There seems no chance of an imminent return to dividends - from the annual report:

The Board confirms that given the disruption to trading and the road to recovery from COVID in the current financial year, and the current uncertainty, there is no intention to pay dividends in respect of financial year 2022. The Board is cognisant of the importance of dividends to shareholders and intend to keep potential future dividends under review.

I visited the Lake District last week, which has a lot of Marstons pubs. Being a shareholder I have vouchers which I tried to use in Keswick. The first pub was closed (on a Monday) due to staff shortages. The second was decrepit, dingy and devoid of customers - we walked straight out. The third we actually had a meal at, from a very restricted menu. Not many customers.

For a thriving tourist town I was shocked at the state of the pubs, and how little business they were doing. The town is heaving with tourists.

If this is representative of the Marstons pub real estate, then I can see why the results and share price is so poor.

I think it is time to give up on MARS.

FD

[Itsallaguess]

If this is representative of the Marstons pub real estate, then I can see why the results and share price is so poor.

I think it is time to give up on MARS.

As the great man once said -

It's a God-awful small affair...

Cheers,

Itsallaguess