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Multibagger shares

General discussions about growth strategies which focus primarily on investing for capital growth
diy12751
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Multibagger shares

#455216

Postby diy12751 » November 2nd, 2021, 8:01 pm

Hi, Motley fool seem to run numerous articles on so called multibagger shares - no doubt it's what draws the readers in. Its got me intrigued though, out of interest if people had to choose 1 stock to hold for the next decade with the greatest multibagger potential what would it be?

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Re: Multibagger shares

#455233

Postby tjh290633 » November 2nd, 2021, 11:23 pm

diy12751 wrote:Hi, Motley fool seem to run numerous articles on so called multibagger shares - no doubt it's what draws the readers in. Its got me intrigued though, out of interest if people had to choose 1 stock to hold for the next decade with the greatest multibagger potential what would it be?


If we knew that we would all be in it. It might be a share that we have never heard of. Here is a list of the shares which I currently hold, with the IRR of my holding and the IRR of a single share from the original date when first bought:

EPIC   Share                            IRR      IRR       Since    
ADM Admiral Group plc 15.33% 15.65% 05-Mar-14
AV. Aviva plc 5.70% 5.50% 26-Oct-10
AZN AstraZeneca plc 16.05% 9.12% 01-Jun-93
BA. BAe Systems plc 11.09% 5.31% 26-Nov-99
BATS British American Tobacco plc 7.65% 8.25% 19-Feb-10
BLND British Land plc 5.16% 5.34% 01-Oct-10
BLT BHP Billiton plc 6.83% 4.72% 19-Feb-10
BP. BP plc 9.02% 11.12% 09-Nov-79
BT.A BT Group plc 8.85% 12.61% 28-Nov-84
CPG Compass Group plc 12.98% 8.27% 31-Jan-01
DGE Diageo plc 15.97% 15.97% 06-May-09
GSK GlaxoSmithKline plc 7.89% 7.83% 28-Sep-10
IGG IG Group Holdings plc -9.99% -8.91% 29-Dec-20
IMI IMI plc 44.15% 12.39% 30-Mar-09
IMB Imperial Brands plc 21.26% 14.51% 01-Oct-96
KGF Kingfisher plc 7.24% 6.79% 04-Sep-07
LGEN Legal & General Group plc 12.91% 12.84% 14-Jun-16
LLOY Lloyds Banking Group plc 17.10% 10.40% 22-Dec-88
MARS Marstons plc 2.32% 4.25% 17-Feb-11
MKS Marks & Spencer plc 7.16% 11.38% 09-Feb-70
NG. National Grid plc 13.55% 10.10% 20-Oct-00
PHP Primary Health Properties plc 4.59% 4.39% 25-Mar-20
PSON Pearson plc 1.33% 2.50% 22-Oct-09
RB. Reckitt Benckiser Group plc 11.75% 10.07% 21-Mar-11
RDSB Royal Dutch Shell plc B 5.88% 5.51% 07-Jun-06
RIO Rio Tinto plc 31.25% 25.18% 27-Apr-16
S32 South32 Ltd 11.54% 12.10% 18-May-15
SGRO Segro plc 10.56% -10.22% 04-Sep-07
SMDS DS Smith plc 13.60% 7.39% 08-Feb-07
SSE Scottish & Southern Energy plc 10.74% 10.16% 28-Sep-10
TATE Tate & Lyle plc 12.09% 2.26% 21-Jul-99
TSCO Tesco plc 6.96% 8.01% 19-Jun-97
TW Taylor Wimpey plc 4.55% -2.11% 30-Aug-05
ULVR Unilever plc 10.29% 10.29% 19-Feb-10
UU. United Utilities Group plc 10.11% 8.96% 09-Aug-01
VOD Vodafone Group plc 4.33% 6.64% 16-Aug-06

There are a wide range of holding periods, from 51 years to less than a year. The difference between my holding and that of a single share is down to a number of factors, top-slicing when overweight, topping up when underweight and possibly return of capital via special dividends or B-share issues in certain cases.

This is not a guide to the future, just a snapshot of the past. You will see that IMI and RIO top the two lists, mainly due to having been bought when the share price was much lower than today. IMI was first bought at 2665p and today is over £16. RIO was first bought at £22 and is now £44.60. If you pick 20 shares that you fancy today, one or two may do very well, others follow the market trends and one or two may disappear through take-over or failure.

I'm afraid that you have to make your own decisions.

TJH

dealtn
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Re: Multibagger shares

#455273

Postby dealtn » November 3rd, 2021, 9:49 am

diy12751 wrote:Hi, Motley fool seem to run numerous articles on so called multibagger shares - no doubt it's what draws the readers in. Its got me intrigued though, out of interest if people had to choose 1 stock to hold for the next decade with the greatest multibagger potential what would it be?


If I had to choose only 1 share to hold for a decade I would look at the limited downside, not the (huge) potential upside.

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Re: Multibagger shares

#455280

Postby SalvorHardin » November 3rd, 2021, 10:28 am

diy12751 wrote:Hi, Motley fool seem to run numerous articles on so called multibagger shares - no doubt it's what draws the readers in. Its got me intrigued though, out of interest if people had to choose 1 stock to hold for the next decade with the greatest multibagger potential what would it be?

The problem is this is that the shares with the greatest potential tend to come with a lot of risk, usually because they are small companies with unproven products with with the possibility that some product of theirs will become transformative.

A good example is a small biotech research company that always makes losses but then makes a spectacular discovery (which often leads to a rapid takeover by a large pharmaceutical company). Moderna three years ago is a great example of a multibagger.

Another sector with huge prospects (both of gains and losses) is small oil and gas exploration companies. From past experience I've owned shares in which produced results ranging from 60 x growth to a 99% loss. Similar results can be obtained with early stage technology and biotechnology shares, as well as miners which are predominately explorers. Most of these companies crash and burn, there's an entire industry built around promoting the "next big thing".

My pick for best prospective multibagger over the next few years (which I own):

Lions Gate Entertainment. Relatively small American film and television studio with some streaming interests and a highly volatile share price. Currently $13.48, back in 2017 Hasbro reportedly offered $40 a share which management rejected. I am hopeful that Lions Gate will be taken over in the next couple of years at a substantial premium to its current share price (possibly more than $40), as the streaming market consolidates with providers looking for more content. When the privately held MGM was put up for sale, Amazon buying it at a big premium to the initial price provided a huge boost to Lions Gate's share price earlier this year. The big downside is that it may never be bought at a high price and management is very highly paid for running a company of this size.

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Re: Multibagger shares

#455281

Postby AleisterCrowley » November 3rd, 2021, 10:38 am

(A) I wouldn't
(B) If I had to , probably a pharma

I hold AZN and GSK. AZN has done well and GSK hasn't , although it's done pretty well as a pseudo-bond oscillating around 1500

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Re: Multibagger shares

#455285

Postby monabri » November 3rd, 2021, 11:03 am

I'd offer up two (I know you said one!).. Schroders (SDRC non voting) and Legal & General. Not multi baggers but they should do ok.

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Re: Multibagger shares

#455295

Postby CryptoPlankton » November 3rd, 2021, 11:47 am

dealtn wrote:
diy12751 wrote:Hi, Motley fool seem to run numerous articles on so called multibagger shares - no doubt it's what draws the readers in. Its got me intrigued though, out of interest if people had to choose 1 stock to hold for the next decade with the greatest multibagger potential what would it be?


If I had to choose only 1 share to hold for a decade I would look at the limited downside, not the (huge) potential upside.

But that wasn't the question which, to me at least, seemed to be simply asking for people's first choice for a LTBH punt on a potential multibagger, not "If you had to put all your eggs in one basket...". Your addition of "only" certainly removes any possible ambiguity in the question, but not necessarily (and, in my view, probably not) correctly.

FWIW, money where my mouth is, Micro Focus International (MCRO) - which has a lot of upside potential if it doesn't go bust!

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Re: Multibagger shares

#455314

Postby Lootman » November 3rd, 2021, 12:47 pm

SalvorHardin wrote:
diy12751 wrote:Hi, Motley fool seem to run numerous articles on so called multibagger shares - no doubt it's what draws the readers in. Its got me intrigued though, out of interest if people had to choose 1 stock to hold for the next decade with the greatest multibagger potential what would it be?

The problem is this is that the shares with the greatest potential tend to come with a lot of risk, usually because they are small companies with unproven products with with the possibility that some product of theirs will become transformative.

Another sector with huge prospects (both of gains and losses) is small oil and gas exploration companies. From past experience I've owned shares in which produced results ranging from 60 x growth to a 99% loss. Similar results can be obtained with early stage technology and biotechnology shares, as well as miners which are predominately explorers. Most of these companies crash and burn, there's an entire industry built around promoting the "next big thing".

If the OP seeks a share that might go up by a factor of, say, 100 then I would agree. But then you really would not want to be invested in only one such share, due to the risk. As with your small expro energy companies, you would need to spread them around. For that purpose I hold about 15 AIM shares. A few of them have tripled or quadrupled in a few years, a couple have halved in price and one has gone to zero!

Depends what the OP means by "multibagger" really. My positions in Apple and Amazon are both up about sixfold in just a few years, and both are huge, safe companies. But my biggest winner was a small company I bought at IPO. It was taken over a few years later, by which point I was up 25-fold.

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Re: Multibagger shares

#455316

Postby dealtn » November 3rd, 2021, 12:52 pm

CryptoPlankton wrote:
dealtn wrote:
diy12751 wrote:Hi, Motley fool seem to run numerous articles on so called multibagger shares - no doubt it's what draws the readers in. Its got me intrigued though, out of interest if people had to choose 1 stock to hold for the next decade with the greatest multibagger potential what would it be?


If I had to choose only 1 share to hold for a decade I would look at the limited downside, not the (huge) potential upside.

But that wasn't the question which, to me at least, seemed to be simply asking for people's first choice for a LTBH punt on a potential multibagger, not "If you had to put all your eggs in one basket...". Your addition of "only" certainly removes any possible ambiguity in the question, but not necessarily (and, in my view, probably not) correctly.

FWIW, money where my mouth is, Micro Focus International (MCRO) - which has a lot of upside potential if it doesn't go bust!


Ok, for clarity. If I was in a position where I had to choose just one share to hold for the next decade from the subset of possible shares that had multibagger potential, hypothetical as that scenario is, I would choose the one from that selection that offered the greatest downside protection.

It would make little material difference to me if that investment strategy and "portfolio" doubled, tripled, or multiplied 50-fold. It would have a huge asymmetric impact on me if it reduced 90%.

If instead the OP is looking for a list of shares with multi-bagging potential I would have difficulty providing just one from those I own. I have admitted to this site a number of shares I own, and I also regularly contribute to

Stocks and Share Dealing Discussions viewforum.php?f=33

and

Company Share News ... viewforum.php?f=94

and as advice to a new site user I would recommend searching the multiple threads listed there for ideas from multiple respected users for inspiration if required.

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Re: Multibagger shares

#455319

Postby scrumpyjack » November 3rd, 2021, 1:10 pm

Looking at my multi baggers, they fall into 2 categories - the long term growth category where over the decades a good company carries on doing well, with the odd ups and downs - and secondly the market opportunity category where the market temporarily crashes the share price as it thinks the company is not going to make it but I felt they would get through the temporary difficulties and were basically solid businesses. Where I have never ever had a multi bagger is in the sort of mature company that goes into HYP portfolios. Examples of each of these are Scottish Mortgage and Barratt.

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Re: Multibagger shares

#455462

Postby moorfield » November 4th, 2021, 7:54 am

scrumpyjack wrote:Where I have never ever had a multi bagger is in the sort of mature company that goes into HYP portfolios.


I've had a few multi debagger HYP shares, but that is a title for another thread! :)

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Re: Multibagger shares

#455467

Postby scrumpyjack » November 4th, 2021, 8:12 am

moorfield wrote:
scrumpyjack wrote:Where I have never ever had a multi bagger is in the sort of mature company that goes into HYP portfolios.


I've had a few multi debagger HYP shares, but that is a title for another thread! :)


Actually, looking at it, I have (LGEN and PRU) but that was in my second category (SP collapsed in financial crisis, so bought and SP now 4 or 5 times cost), so you are right, it can happen!

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Re: Multibagger shares

#457812

Postby ADrunkenMarcus » November 13th, 2021, 12:59 pm

I would hope that any share I invest in becomes a multi-bagger. High growth is great but slow and steady can win the race.

My current holdings from my SIPP and dividend growth portfolios (duplicates eliminated) - this ignores the substantial dividend return, particularly of the older holdings. Diageo, for e.g., has returned a multiple of its book cost in dividends alone. Sorted by total share price gain to their recent peak:



And by CAGR (ignore for shorter periods!) Those held for a year or less just have the total return as the CAGR. The 'sweet spot' has been companies such as Diploma and Renishaw which have returned over 20% CAGR for 9-10 years. However, I have no objection to the Kainoses of this world which have only achieved 71% CAGR for four years.


For collectives, Smithson represents 50% or so of my SIPP so I have some confidence / hope in it!

As regards individual shares, I bought PayPal in April 2020 and Evolution in January 2021. Both had more than doubled in short order, Evolution doing so (in Swedish currency terms) in twelve weeks or so and PayPal in a little over a year (although both have come off the boil a bit recently). I'm hoping for continued growth in both cases. DP Poland has potential but then I have thought that for years!

Best wishes


Mark.

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Re: Multibagger shares

#460747

Postby jeff50 » November 25th, 2021, 8:47 am

HGEN. I have taken a holding in given the push for using hydrogen.
I hold ITM. That became a multibagger for me.

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Re: Multibagger shares

#461609

Postby CautiousPaul » November 28th, 2021, 2:06 pm

Angle PLC - they develop products for use in rare (cancer) cell diagnostics. They are awaiting FDA approval for one of their products, which is likely to send the share price sharply upwards if granted.


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