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Near the Bottom?

General discussions about growth strategies which focus primarily on investing for capital growth
doug2500
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Re: Near the Bottom?

#500824

Postby doug2500 » May 16th, 2022, 4:40 pm

I swapped from EAT to MTE a few years ago. Less income but better TR (so far at least)

Dod101
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Re: Near the Bottom?

#500826

Postby Dod101 » May 16th, 2022, 4:48 pm

DrFfybes wrote:I just moved a good chink of Cash ISAs to ii as they were maturing.


I would have thought that the chink of cash would be going into Baillie Gifford China.

Dod

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Re: Near the Bottom?

#500827

Postby Dod101 » May 16th, 2022, 4:56 pm

richfool wrote:
monabri wrote:Over on HYP there's a discussion on what to do with the Aviva return: My comment was...

"I was thinking about simply reinvesting back into Aviva but in recent weeks I've wavered about deploying funds into other areas (passing reference: certain "growth "ITs) so I might now reinvest, perhaps, 50% back into perennial under achiever Aviva.

On reflection, I found myself using the words" perennial under achiever".... maybe I need to reflect some more and stop banging my head against the wall as it is quite nice when I stop ! 8-)"



I'm thinking split the returned funds 3 ways, SMT, Baillie Gifford Global Small and ????

EAT (European Assets) which invests in smaller European companies, is down pretty big (some 31% over the last 6 months) and now yielding 7.11%, so might be worth a look, particularly for those interested in income and growth. (One I held onto!)


Of course the Annual Report tells us that they distribute 6% of their NAV at year end so much re the dividend depends on the NAV at 31 December. If the figures were as now, shareholders might be facing a reduction in the dividend, although I have not checked the current discount to NAV (if any)

Dod

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Re: Near the Bottom?

#500842

Postby Eboli » May 16th, 2022, 7:22 pm

doug 2500 noted:

I swapped from EAT to MTE a few years ago. Less income but better TR (so far at least)


I think Merryn Somerset Webb was a director of MTE (Montanaro Smaller Companies) for quite a long time ending in 2020 and the trust certainly had a very good run towards the end of that period.

More relevant to the article noted by the OP is she then became a director of MUT (Murray Income and Growth), whose performance may recently have been held back by the merger with what was Perpetual Income and Growth (PLI) which I think became briefly BCI before its demise. That would be in keeping with her comments.

Eb.
(I hold both MTE and MUT)

monabri
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Re: Near the Bottom?

#500848

Postby monabri » May 16th, 2022, 8:26 pm

Dod101 wrote:
DrFfybes wrote:I just moved a good chink of Cash ISAs to ii as they were maturing.


I would have thought that the chink of cash would be going into Baillie Gifford China.

Dod


I think you (Dod101) bought into BGCG about the same time as I. It's performance has been dire in the time I've held it , approx 50% down ( I also own shares in JP Morgan China Growth & Income , JCGI). There is a lot of concern about China, starting before the recent lockdowns. I'm really hesitant to add more funds in their direction.

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Re: Near the Bottom?

#500879

Postby Dod101 » May 17th, 2022, 7:33 am

Eboli wrote:doug 2500 noted:

I swapped from EAT to MTE a few years ago. Less income but better TR (so far at least)


I think Merryn Somerset Webb was a director of MTE (Montanaro Smaller Companies) for quite a long time ending in 2020 and the trust certainly had a very good run towards the end of that period.

More relevant to the article noted by the OP is she then became a director of MUT (Murray Income and Growth), whose performance may recently have been held back by the merger with what was Perpetual Income and Growth (PLI) which I think became briefly BCI before its demise. That would be in keeping with her comments.

Eb.
(I hold both MTE and MUT)


All good except that Murray Income does not have 'and Growth' in its title. It is merely Murray Income Trust PLC the last time I looked anyway. In fact the merger with the Perpetual Trust was helpful as it brought the ongoing charges ratio well down. It has never been a great growth IT.

Dod

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Re: Near the Bottom?

#500880

Postby Dod101 » May 17th, 2022, 7:36 am

monabri wrote:
Dod101 wrote:
DrFfybes wrote:I just moved a good chink of Cash ISAs to ii as they were maturing.


I would have thought that the chink of cash would be going into Baillie Gifford China.

Dod


I think you (Dod101) bought into BGCG about the same time as I. It's performance has been dire in the time I've held it , approx 50% down ( I also own shares in JP Morgan China Growth & Income , JCGI). There is a lot of concern about China, starting before the recent lockdowns. I'm really hesitant to add more funds in their direction.


Yes. I got out of Baillie Gifford China again. My comment was intended as a modest pun on the use of the word 'chink' but it obviously did not work. Anyway it is probably racial or something nowadays.

Dod

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Re: Near the Bottom?

#501142

Postby BobGe » May 18th, 2022, 7:53 am

Eboli wrote:More relevant to the article noted by the OP is she then became a director of MUT (Murray Income and Growth), whose performance may recently have been held back by the merger with what was Perpetual Income and Growth (PLI) which I think became briefly BCI before its demise. That would be in keeping with her comments.
Eb.
(I hold both MTE and MUT)

PLI did not become BCI, it was (merged) swallowed by MUT where PLI shareholders received MUT shares in exchange and ended up paying a good 5% premium for them in practical terms. Since then the performance of MUT has been pretty awful and PLI shareholders would have (likely, I believe) been in a better position today (based on PLI's portfolio at the time) if the deal had never happened. The then considered poor performance of PLI was something which the MUT merger was supposed to fix!

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Re: Near the Bottom?

#501384

Postby Eboli » May 18th, 2022, 7:01 pm

BobGe noted:

PLI did not become BCI, it was (merged) swallowed by MUT where PLI shareholders received MUT shares in exchange and ended up paying a good 5% premium for them in practical terms.


You are quite right. Put it down to one too many gin and tonics. I was confusing PLI with FCI. Now FCI did become BCI....

Eb.

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Re: Near the Bottom?

#501389

Postby richfool » May 18th, 2022, 7:41 pm

Dod101 wrote:Yes. I got out of Baillie Gifford China again. My comment was intended as a modest pun on the use of the word 'chink' but it obviously did not work. Anyway it is probably racial or something nowadays.

Dod

I thought you said you didn't invest in single country investments, or is China an exception because it's a big country?

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Re: Near the Bottom?

#501403

Postby Dod101 » May 18th, 2022, 8:28 pm

richfool wrote:
Dod101 wrote:Yes. I got out of Baillie Gifford China again. My comment was intended as a modest pun on the use of the word 'chink' but it obviously did not work. Anyway it is probably racial or something nowadays.

Dod

I thought you said you didn't invest in single country investments, or is China an exception because it's a big country?


That is true. I broke my rule and decided that that was a big mistake so got out again.

Dod

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Re: Near the Bottom?

#502077

Postby AWOL » May 22nd, 2022, 10:04 am

Dod101 wrote:Merwyn Somerset Webb has a few interesting comments in her article in today's FT. She tells us that according to Tom Slater of Scottish Mortgage, this year has been the worst start to a year for growth shares for 90 years, but she goes on to say that valuations are now beginning to look more realistic not just for growth stocks. Some markets, like the UK, are now at what she calls 'meaningful discounts'. it would be good to think so.

She also mentions that Scottish Mortgage is down 41% on YTD, Netflix is down 70%, Amazon and Tesla both down 40% from their highs. She says that if you are looking for long term value, some is beginning to emerge.

Personally I would have thought she is rather optimistic, what with further interest rate increases expected and the possibility of a recession, but what do I know? As a matter of fact I have just checked my year end values, and I am down well under 1% currently. That would suggest that I have a fairly conservative portfolio, which is what I like at my stage in my investing career.

Dod


Merwyn has on a number of occasions tipped JPMorgan Russia (before they invaded Ukraine) using the justification that it couldn't get any cheaper and was a bargain. I believe she has put her money where her mouth is too. She has sung the praises of gold as well. In my mind her reasoning and her picks are dreadful. She underestimated the risks and Is fixated by any ray of light that gives a possible positive narrative. She likes rags to riches stories. In my experience competing narratives are the source of most investment disasters. I wouldn't let her manage my children's pocket money.

Her tips are roulette tips, worthless unless you gamble and even then the value is excitement not knowledge.

As for growth, if rates continue to rise then it work continue to fall. They probably seek continue to rise. Growth is still overvalued and it's above its absolute and relative to value trends. So not cheap yet. Growth was at a greater premium when rates are low as debt is cheap and discounted future cash flows were more attractive. That time has passed and shoes no sign of returning any time soon.

Growth stocks will probably have a bounce or a few like a dead cat falling down everest.

My advice is to either keep your powder dry if you must buy growth or to look elsewhere.

This is a reasonable reading of where we are https://www.trustnet.com/fundswire/1330 ... over-bonds (click through to PDF)


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