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Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

The home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
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This is the home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
vrdiver
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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#419525

Postby vrdiver » June 14th, 2021, 5:00 pm

Nimrod103 wrote:
XFool wrote:They have to prove a negative?


Or they could just allow complete access to everyone and everything

... and have their entire R&D, including Intellectual Property, made available to the whole world?

If the Chinese accused Porton Down of some act, then insisted that their "independent" experts should come over to check it out, demanding full access to "everyone and everything", how would you feel about that, and would you be at all concerned that any highly sensitive work might fall into a potential enemy's hands?

'Cos that's what you're asking of the Chinese...

VRD
(a strong believer in cock-up over conspiracy, as a working assumption)

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#419531

Postby Mike4 » June 14th, 2021, 5:22 pm

vrdiver wrote:
Nimrod103 wrote:
XFool wrote:They have to prove a negative?


Or they could just allow complete access to everyone and everything

... and have their entire R&D, including Intellectual Property, made available to the whole world?

If the Chinese accused Porton Down of some act, then insisted that their "independent" experts should come over to check it out, demanding full access to "everyone and everything", how would you feel about that, and would you be at all concerned that any highly sensitive work might fall into a potential enemy's hands?

'Cos that's what you're asking of the Chinese...

VRD
(a strong believer in cock-up over conspiracy, as a working assumption)


You mean a lab cock-up presumably releasing it, as opposed to it being a naturally occurring virus?

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#419532

Postby onthemove » June 14th, 2021, 5:27 pm

XFool wrote:
Nimrod103 wrote:Which AIUI was the view taken in the previously cited work:
https://thebulletin.org/2021/05/the-ori ... -at-wuhan/
Which I thought was quite open minded and even handed.

Yes? If you say so.


:?

Now I'm really puzzled. Isn't that the article you linked to here?
viewtopic.php?p=417449#p417449
As you hadn't added any additional commentary, I thought you were posting it as a recommendation that it might interest people(?)

(Though I agree (with what I think you're now saying) that it is anything but open minded!... Imv, that article is pseudo scientific claptrap... making extensive use of scientific and technical words along with quotes from scientists in order to try to give itself an aura of (imv, misleading) credibility, which is then mixed together with pure, speculative, conjecture presented as 'obvious' or 'clear' fact (particularly with regards the likelihood of various situations), to try to build (allegedly) 'obvious' arguments that the lab-leak theory is somehow by far the most likely explanation, all coupled with quite a staggering level of grammatical devices used to position a reader clearly towards one particular conclusion! Imv, you'd be hard pressed to write a more biased article)

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#419534

Postby XFool » June 14th, 2021, 5:40 pm

onthemove wrote:
XFool wrote:
Nimrod103 wrote:Which AIUI was the view taken in the previously cited work:
https://thebulletin.org/2021/05/the-ori ... -at-wuhan/
Which I thought was quite open minded and even handed.

Yes? If you say so.

:?

Now I'm really puzzled. Isn't that the article you linked to here?
viewtopic.php?p=417449#p417449

Yes it is. :)

onthemove wrote:As you hadn't added any additional commentary, I thought you were posting it as a recommendation that it might interest people(?)

Yes, I thought people might be interested though I wasn't recommending it. Possibly I should have read it more carefully myself at the time, particularly the ending, which I have now quoted in a post above. I might then have been more sceptical of it myself.

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#419549

Postby vrdiver » June 14th, 2021, 6:58 pm

Mike4 wrote:
vrdiver wrote:VRD
(a strong believer in cock-up over conspiracy, as a working assumption)


You mean a lab cock-up presumably releasing it, as opposed to it being a naturally occurring virus?


Cock-up seems more likely than deliberate release, if only from my limited experience of human beings and their ability to get everything right every time. Whether it was cock-up or a natural event in which a natural virus crossed species via a wet market, I don't know and don't have enough expertise or data to conclude one way or the other. The political ramifications of a lab release are pretty substantial, so I'd expect some countries to be running interference to get a result that is politically advantageous, even at the expense of the truth. That interference could be anything from trying to get the world to believe it was deliberate, through to obfuscating the original source. What I don't expect is any government to have a "no political interest, just the truth please" stance.

VRD

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#419576

Postby Julian » June 14th, 2021, 11:08 pm

I feel that I can form a personal view that, if it leaked from a lab, accident rather than some weird plan to poison the rest of the world using your own country as a starting point is more likely simply based on my personal assessment of the absurdity of releasing a biological agent targeted against a foreign entity in one’s own country. When it comes to forming a personal opinion as to which side of the lab vs natural origin debate I fall on however I just can’t decide. While that debate is still centred around detailed scientific discussion about, for instance, whether the sequence of amino acid sequence at the S1/S2 furin cleavage spike on the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein is indicative of lab manipulation or not, I am frankly totally out of my depth. If some highly credible and well verified whistle blower came along to add some humint to the picture then maybe I could understand and hence form some sort of personal opinion based on that but when the core of the natural vs lab origin debate is centred around highly detailed bio-scientific nuances with claim and counter-claim amongst research virologists how on earth am I, a computer scientist and a physicist, supposed to form my own judgement on the likely validity of the opposing views?

- Julian

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#419739

Postby murraypaul » June 15th, 2021, 5:22 pm

Nimrod103 wrote:Or they could just allow complete access to everyone and everything, to be investigated by completely independent investigators*. AIUI the Chinese have not done this.


If you are the Chinese, who do you consider independent?
Certainly not the US.

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#419759

Postby Nimrod103 » June 15th, 2021, 6:57 pm

murraypaul wrote:
Nimrod103 wrote:Or they could just allow complete access to everyone and everything, to be investigated by completely independent investigators*. AIUI the Chinese have not done this.


If you are the Chinese, who do you consider independent?
Certainly not the US.


Seeing as (according to some reports) the USA financed the lab in Wuhan, independent is a moot point. Personally I would trust the Chinese even less than the US. Do you trust the Chinese to tell the truth? You imply that you do.

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#419772

Postby onthemove » June 15th, 2021, 7:30 pm

Nimrod103 wrote: Personally I would trust the Chinese even less than the US. Do you trust the Chinese to tell the truth? You imply that you do.


I think the Chinese are getting rather a raw deal.

Let's not forget, it was thanks to the Chinese genetically sequencing sars-cov-2, and providing that sequence to scientists the world over that enabled the Oxford team (and presumably it was the same for the Pfizer teams, as well) to proactively start developing their vaccines in record time before they'd even got their hands on actual virus DNA themselves.

The Shanghai virologist Professor Zhang Yongzhen first decoded the virus’s genetic structure and published his results on the internet. Gilbert and her colleagues immediately began working on a vaccine using Zhang’s data. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... scientists


The Oxford (etc) scientists seem to have a lot more trust in the Chinese to work cooperatively, than it seems many people in the UK (and US) would.

Something to think about, particularly for those who have themselves benefitted from the Oxford/AZ vaccine. Aren't you (those who've had the AZ vaccine) at least a little bit grateful for the positive role that China has played in getting that to you?

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#419781

Postby 9873210 » June 15th, 2021, 7:58 pm

onthemove wrote:Let's not forget, it was thanks to the Chinese genetically sequencing sars-cov-2, and providing that sequence to scientists the world over that enabled the Oxford team (and presumably it was the same for the Pfizer teams, as well) to proactively start developing their vaccines in record time before they'd even got their hands on actual virus DNA themselves.

Sequencing a virus is not a particularly difficult step. The sequence would be available with a week or so of a sample getting to a lab, which means within a week or so of a verified case occurring in almost any country outside of China. Which means that the sequence would be known within a couple of weeks of the Chinese release whether or not China had attempted to keep in secret.

China gets some credit for publishing the sequence early, but it did not have world changing implications. Withholding the sequence would probably have delayed vaccines by a few days, at worst by a few weeks.

Releasing information that is going to be public anyway does not require a particularly high commitment to openness. It basically means you are not North Korea or the LAPD. A very low standard of decency.

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#419809

Postby murraypaul » June 15th, 2021, 9:39 pm

Nimrod103 wrote:You imply that you do.


No I don't.
I say that the idea that China should consider US/UK/... investigators independent is silly.

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#419818

Postby Nimrod103 » June 15th, 2021, 10:34 pm

murraypaul wrote:
Nimrod103 wrote:You imply that you do.


No I don't.
I say that the idea that China should consider US/UK/... investigators independent is silly.


Why should China regard UK investigators as not being independent? The origin in Wuhan is too much of a coincidence. The Chinese have to be completely open. They have not been.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/0 ... -lab-leak/
The WIV's refusal to allow an independent investigation of its laboratory or its research into coronaviruses has further fuelled suspicions that Covid-19 may have originated and leaked from the institute. But Dr Shi has rejected calls for further scrutiny of the WIV, telling the New York Times: "How on earth can I offer up evidence for something where there is no evidence?" “I don’t know how the world has come to this, constantly pouring filth on an innocent scientist,” she added.
She oozes insincerity and dishonesty. All IMHO of course.

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#420057

Postby vrdiver » June 16th, 2021, 8:52 pm

Nimrod103 wrote:Why should China regard UK investigators as not being independent?

For starters, the "Special relationship" between the UK and the USA. Might China be concerned that the UK would act in favour of the USA?
For an entree, why on earth would China feel beholden to prove itself to anybody? Haven't you noticed they are about to become (if not already) the world's largest superpower?
For dessert, imagine the Chinese trust us about as much as we trust them. If you have any suspicions about Chinese political interference in this investigation, consider that feeling reciprocated.
For coffee and a brandy, consider that Boris just suggested offering Hong Kong residents, unhappy with Chinese authority, British passports. Is that the act of a nation which will support China, or one that might look to besmirch China's reputation?

I could go on...

VRD

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#421416

Postby XFool » June 22nd, 2021, 3:35 pm

‘Everything is collapsing’: Colombia battles third Covid wave amid unrest

The Guardian

Protest leaders have agreed to pause mass marches as hospital ICUs struggle to cope with surging coronavirus cases

“I understand the need to restart the economy – but you won’t have much of one if everyone is dead,” said Parra, during a rare break in his office. “And reopening the economy gave people a false sense of security, and so they stopped protecting themselves in marches and elsewhere.”

Public health experts have been less diplomatic.

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#422687

Postby XFool » June 26th, 2021, 8:20 pm

The Oxford vaccine: the trials and tribulations of a world-saving jab

The Guardian

Amid bemusement from scientists at the deluge of often undeserved criticism, the Guardian pieces together the story behind the vaccine’s successes and failures

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#422841

Postby Julian » June 27th, 2021, 1:16 pm

Here's another interesting and somewhat disturbing Guardian article today ...

Delta Covid variant may be edging race against vaccines

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... t-vaccines

It's talking about it from a worldwide perspective so not necessarily reason to fear imminent catastrophe in the UK although maybe an indication that travel restrictions might be around for quite a long time.

The bit I found particularly disturbing was...

... research in Australia indicates just how easily the Delta variant can potentially spread. Based on CCTV footage, health officials suspect it has been transmitted in “scarily fleeting” encounters of roughly five to 10 seconds between people walking past each other in an indoor shopping area in Sydney in at least two instances.


It's quite impressive the level of analysis the Australian authorities seem to be doing to track down specific infection points. Trawling through CCTV footage is real nuts and bolts detective work. I suppose that when you have so few initial cases to contact trace you can afford to do that level of investigation. Valuable info for the rest of the world.

The article does point out that there was no masking and due to low vaccination rates probably none of the individuals vaccinated so a few mitigating factors for the UK in this scenario. I wonder if masking indoors might be with us for quite a long time too. The people who think this is all a hoax and refuse to wear masks or get vaccinated might be in for a wake up call soon.

This really isn't over yet.

- Julian

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#422851

Postby XFool » June 27th, 2021, 1:47 pm

Julian wrote:The people who think this is all a hoax and refuse to wear masks or get vaccinated might be in for a wake up call soon.

If only! Unfortunately, I think people who think this is all a hoax will never get a "wake up call" from anything in the external world. The nature of such people being, effectively, to deny reality itself.

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#422862

Postby Julian » June 27th, 2021, 2:34 pm

XFool wrote:
Julian wrote:The people who think this is all a hoax and refuse to wear masks or get vaccinated might be in for a wake up call soon.

If only! Unfortunately, I think people who think this is all a hoax will never get a "wake up call" from anything in the external world. The nature of such people being, effectively, to deny reality itself.

Yes, I suspect you're right. I saw a report on CNN, way back at the height of the last US surge, of covid-19 deniers seriously ill in US hospitals refusing to accept it was Covid-19, one apparently saying to their doctor that surely it must be lung cancer.

It reminds me of a line that's always stuck with me from the film "American Beauty" when Kevin Spacey's character askes the drug dealing kid next door why the kid's dad doesn't get suspicious about how he can afford all his high-end gadgets on a pizza delivery person's salary (or whatever low-wage job the kid had). His answer was "never under-estimate the power of denial". So true!

- Julian

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#424428

Postby Julian » July 3rd, 2021, 1:08 pm

So true! And not just pubs and restaurants...

Test-and-trace rules ‘wreaking havoc’ for pubs and restaurants

Bars, pubs and clubs may be forced into a backdoor lockdown beyond 19 July unless the government changes test-and-trace rules, industry bosses have warned.

Businesses across the country from Edinburgh to Chester, Oxford and London are being hit by waves of closures as staff are forced to self-isolate after being alerted by the NHS test and trace app over coming into contact with someone with Covid.


[ Source: https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... osses-warn ]

I've been seeing the impact of this effect on my own life for the last 8 weeks or so now, starting with a hospital appointment cancelled 8 weeks ago (when case rates were much lower) due to my consultant needing to self isolate but now with many more examples. At first I thought maybe it was just me being unlucky and I shouldn't form any opinions based on my own personal anecdotes, and I still shouldn't I suppose, but yesterday it reached a crescendo when I went for a walk with a friend and afterwards we sat outside a pub for about 90 minutes having a drink. During that time she had two emails cancelling two different things she had planned both due to other people having been flagged for self-isolation. I also had to re-arrange my travel plans that same morning due to the train I was planning to catch being cancelled due to a shortage of drivers because too many were self-isolating.

As long as it can be done safely these self-quarantine rules really do need to be revised to factor in the benefits of vaccination because otherwise, if the case rates continue to double about every 10 days which is where we are at the moment, things will be absolute chaos by 19th July and beyond.

- Julian

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#424551

Postby U962 » July 3rd, 2021, 10:15 pm

XFool wrote: I think people who think this is all a hoax will never get a "wake up call" from anything in the external world. The nature of such people being, effectively, to deny reality itself.


The problem is that according to PHE sometime ago, 80% of sufferers only get a up to a mild illness and up to 30% of sufferers actually get no symptoms at all: hence the whole problem of the asymptomatic spreaders totally unaware that they have it.

So amongst those who think it all a hoax perpetuated by the Illuminati, Prince Philip, the Masons etc and the vax converts your rear end into a 5G transmitter there will be quite a few who fall into the above 80% or 30% categories.
While the unfit, old, obese and existing ill deniers may get the wake up call, the rest will have the suspicions confirmed when they test positive and find that much as they suspected - that for them its like a winter's cold of varying severity or has nowt effect on them at all.
Rather than getting a wakeup call they are going to get mad, as they will in their eyes have proved themselves right all along.


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