Can anyone reassure us or are we alone?

[Arizona11]

My wife and I are early 60’s no kids and retired. We have had both jabs. I should also say that two dearly loved cousins have died from Covid, so I don’t think I am being totally irrational.

We are still being very cautious, as we have been from the start of all this. We don’t touch post or packages for many days. Groceries delivered by Ocado are cleaned when they arrived. We don’t see our friends, but they seem to be doing whatever they want. We wear masks when we go for a walk and wash our hands all the time. Haven’t been in a shop since March 2020.

Here is the problem. Lifting all the restrictions recently was the worst thing that could happen as we want to get rid of the virus and also get our lives back again. All we read/hear is “if not now, then when?” And my answer is “not when the figures are at their worst in ages and spreading quickly”. We think people doing normal things like there is no pandemic is crazy. Yes I know that double jabbed people are unlikely to get seriously ill, but I don’t want to get ill at all! People moaning about their holiday being spoiled seem mad to us. Why are you flying in the middle of a pandemic. Do these people have a death wish?

I do not really want comments from those who think we are mad and should get on with our lives (who cares if we get ill or maybe die!). I would like to hear from those behaving like us and still being really careful to confirm that, rather than being crazy, we are actually doing the sensible and responsible thing at this time. We are worried that this pandemic will go on for years as so many people continue to behave in such an irresponsible way. The more they do, the more the infections and the increased risk of new variants which may also be vaccine resistant. Why are these people behaving like that?

Any reassurance that can be given to us would be very much appreciated.

[Alaric]

We don’t touch post or packages for many days. Groceries delivered by Ocado are cleaned when they arrived.

Perhaps you need to revisit your personal risk assessment and establish how many have caught Covid from contaminated deliveries over the past 16 months?

[bluedonkey]

We don’t touch post or packages for many days. Groceries delivered by Ocado are cleaned when they arrived.

Perhaps you need to revisit your personal risk assessment and establish how many have caught Covid from contaminated deliveries over the past 16 months?

I agree. Whilst I am fairly risk averse, I do think that Arizona's policy is a step too far.

Overwhelmingly the main risk is from being indoors in an unventilated room for an extended period of time. For me, this means I don't wear a mask outdoors. I wish people would continue to wear indoors. A short trip to a quiet shop is I think low risk, though online deliveries are also a good idea for the main shop. Meet friends outdoors. I would encourage you to relax your rules somewhat.

[Arizona11]

We don’t touch post or packages for many days. Groceries delivered by Ocado are cleaned when they arrived.

Perhaps you need to revisit your personal risk assessment and establish how many have caught Covid from contaminated deliveries over the past 16 months?

Perhaps you could point me to where those statistics can be found and then I can make a more informed decision.

[Midsmartin]

Covid will likely be with us for ever now. It will circulate along with 'flu, colds, chicken pox and anything else. Hopefully it will become less severe over time, but we cant' be sure. Alas the time when we had a chance of extinguishing it completely ended when it spread to multiple points outside Wuhan, in February 2020 or even before. The consequence of this is that I think you WILL be exposed to it at some point, just as you are exposed to colds and flu. There is a chance that it will disappear as quickly as it came if for example, a new variant that gives fewer symptoms comes to dominate.

Covid cannot be caught by touching something with your hand - unless someone has just sneezed on it and you then wipe your eye or lick it. All the evidence is that really it's only transmitted by an airborne route. I would stop worrying about touching post or shopping bags - it an almost zero risk. You probably never worried about catching any other illnesses by this route.

If you have been vaccinated you will at some point have to say "ok, the risk is low enough for me to go out now". Maybe not today, but sometime.
Only you can decide when you feel safe, and nobody can be sure how infection levels will change over time. I feel happy enough to go out, though would think twice about an overbusy pub crammed with young people (those not vaccinated). If you feel happier staying largely at home for a while longer while the vaccination rate creeps up, then that is perfectly ok. Perhaps in another 2 or 3 months infection rates will definitley have declined.

Because the over 50s have mostly been vaccinated, the virus is circulating much more in younger age groups. So you can largely avoid it by not going indoors in places with lots of youngsters - no schools, nightclubs, rock concerts etc. I expect you can manage to do that ok. Outdoors is fine as the wind quickly carries the virus away; indoors with good ventilation is OK, particularly for short periods of time.

I think that wearing a mask for an outdoors walk is probably a wasted effort. I wear them in shops, and put one on at home out of courtesy if I need to answer the door.

You are correct that allowing it to spread unchecked, and in partially vaccinated groups, makes new variants more likely. But that doesn't effect whether you are safe popping out to the shops right now.

Our daughter caught it, and we all had to isolate along with a friend of hers. Despite sharing a car with her, and a house with her for ten days, none of the other 4 of us caught it (2 fully vaccinated age 50-ish adults, 2 half vaccinated late teens) - we all did a PCR test to check.

[mc2fool]

We don’t touch post or packages for many days. Groceries delivered by Ocado are cleaned when they arrived.

Perhaps you need to revisit your personal risk assessment and establish how many have caught Covid from contaminated deliveries over the past 16 months?

Perhaps you could point me to where those statistics can be found and then I can make a more informed decision.

There are, of course, no statistics on how people have caught covid 'cos it is extremely difficult, if not impossible in most cases, to determine how a covid sufferer acquired the virus. Even if it seems dead obvious ("I snogged a girl with covid") that may not have actually been the transmission vector for you.

However, it seems that the official wisdom is that packaging is low/no risk, with any tiny risk there is being mitigated simply by hand washing.

https://www.which.co.uk/news/2020/06/takeaways-shopping-and-supermarket-deliveries-can-you-catch-coronavirus-from-them/
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/guidance-for-consumers-on-coronavirus-covid-19-and-food/guidance-for-consumers-on-coronavirus-covid-19-and-food

[Stompa]

Perhaps you could point me to where those statistics can be found and then I can make a more informed decision.

Perhaps:

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00251-4

[doolally]

We are still being very cautious, as we have been from the start of all this. We don’t touch post or packages for many days. Groceries delivered by Ocado are cleaned when they arrived.

I'm sure I read some time ago that the risk of transmission via contaminated surfaces is far lower than first thought. Then I saw this earlier today, which helps to support that: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-58052378

I think you are right to be cautious, as I am, but you are probably a bit OTT. I do go into supermarkets, but early in the day before crowds build up, and I make sure I don't linger when in near proximity to others. The biggest risk I take is visiting my barber, but that's only every 8 weeks or so and he is extremely diligent, appointment only and no other customers in the shop

doolally

[GrandOiseau]

I think you have taken things a little bit too far.

Rightly or wrongly, my understanding, is that the risk is highest indoors, unventilated, for long periods. So that is what I am avoiding. When I go shopping I still wear a mask.

I will be resuming indoor sport/entertainment unmasked in September. I will start travelling abroad later in the year (though the nature of it will be low risk)

Each week the vaccine and therefore herd immunity is increasing. I don't think things will get much better in terms of risk.

[88V8]

We don’t touch post or packages for many days.

As has been said, the idea of catching it from surfaces was long ago discarded, so all the sanitising is rather a waste of time.

We - 70s - don't wear masks outdoors.
We do when shopping indoors.
We keep away from drunks, crowds, the young and stupid, public transport.
If you have visitors or are visiting, good through ventilation is very important.

I think in reality that is enough to keep one safe. Reasonably safe.

Do agree that the holidays obsession is ridiculous, but then we haven't been cooped up in a pokey flat with screaming kids for months.

V8

[onthemove]

Here is the problem. Lifting all the restrictions recently was the worst thing that could happen as we want to get rid of the virus and also get our lives back again.

As others have mentioned, I don't think there are any scientists now who think there's any realistic possibility that we could ever now get rid of the virus, irrespective whether restrictions had just been lifted or not.

And the consensus seems to be expecting that it will be around like colds and flus for ever more.

My understanding is that the remaining restrictions and cautions are really just to now protect those final few who haven't yet had their vaccines, but are in the process of getting them (anyone choosing not to get the jab, tough luck, we aren't waiting).

My understanding is that most scientists now expect we are all going to be catching covid all the time from now on.

The hope and expectation, is that thanks to the vaccines, that catching covid should now be mild or even asymptomatic for the majority of people. Effectively making it less of an issue than the flu.

I read one article, iirc perhaps in the Guardian, where they gave a number of scientists' views... one thought that the protection from serious illness or death provided by the vaccine should result in almost zero deaths from covid, though another scientist in the same article believed it may be nearer to the region of 2000 deaths each winter from the elderly or at risk, putting it on a par with flu.

My point is, that from your perspective, if you've had both shots, that's already the end game for you (subject to potentially also being given another booster shot in the autumn, and perhaps each winter, subject to what the evolving situation indicates).

The last days of restrictions are really only now about protecting those who haven't had their vaccines yet.

Arguably, all the at risk people should already have had their shots now, but there seems to be an overall willingness to wait until all adults have had their shots, even though the remaining 20yr olds aren't really all that at risk... an unvaccinated 20yr old is probably less at risk from covid than a fully vaccinated 70yr old.

But yeh, that's it... at some point, it's a matter of taking that leap of faith and trusting the vaccine to do it's job.

Because that's what government policy now is. Even professor Ferguson has said as much when he made the predictions of 200,000 cases in August... he was still pro-opening up on the 19th July because he expects that thanks to the vaccine that won't translate into any significant increase in deaths.

Apologies if that sounds flippant - it isn't meant to be... I've only had one shot so far, and while technically I feel safe based on the stats, and to be honest even before the vaccines were proven I already felt reasonably 'safe' based on the stats ... but even once I've had the second shot, I'm still going to feel a little apprehensive at the prospect of my first covid infection... realistically, I know it's going to be a matter of when and not if ... I know the stats are on my side, with or without the vaccine, but there's always that 'what if' I'm the exception ...

... but realistically, the risks from covid are now on a par, or better than the risks the majority of us were taking pre-covid without even a second thought.

The scientists have done a brilliant job with the vaccines.

It's now for us to put our faith in that science.

Of course after 12+ months of being forced under the duvet covers by legal mandate, there's always going to be a large degree of apprehension about returning to normal.

But that's a leap of faith we're all going to have to take.

The ultimate question is do you trust the science and the scientists...

[Lootman]

The ultimate question is do you trust the science and the scientists...

The answer would appear to be not, since the OP included this piece of text:

"I do not really want comments from those who think we are mad and should get on with our lives. I would like to hear from those behaving like us and still being really careful to confirm that, rather than being crazy, we are actually doing the sensible and responsible thing at this time. We are worried that this pandemic will go on for years as so many people continue to behave in such an irresponsible way. The more they do, the more the infections and the increased risk of new variants which may also be vaccine resistant. Why are these people behaving like that?

Any reassurance that can be given to us would be very much appreciated."

The OP wishes to have his non-scientific biases reinforced and not critiqued.

[scrumpyjack]

As I understand it, if you have had both jabs, the risk of getting Covid seriously enough to be hospitalised is extremely small and of dying from it vanishingly small.

https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/risk-covid-after-vaccine

Only you can make a judgement but if you seek to avoid anything that might kill you, you would never go in a car or walk down a street.

We are in our seventies but live in a rural area and have more or less returned to normal. I still don't go into any shops but that is because I find it very convenient to get Waitrose and Ocado to deliver the shopping and get pretty much everything else on Amazon or ebay. I play tennis and golf and that is all back to normal. (Except bump elbows rather than shake hands).

I certainly don't worry about catching it from packages.

[UncleEbenezer]

My wife and I are early 60’s no kids and retired.

Then I expect you'll be at greater risk from heart disease than from covid. Perhaps very much greater.

To quantify that, you'd want to evaluate your personal risk factors for heart disease.

[murraypaul]

I would guess I'm closest in approach to the OP of the people joining in so far.

Haven't been into a shop since lockdown started, haven't been into a building unless absolutely required. But I've got a dentist appointment this week, having cancelled them since the start, because it seems like the risk is manageable now, and it something that can't be done on the internet!

But I no longer tip postage out of the envelope and leave it for a few days before checking it, that seemed rational at the start of the process, when it was considered a viable transmission method, but doesn't now. I still wash my hands after opening the post, because ... why not, it doesn't take long.

I've now started to meet people outdoors, still keeping space, but wouldn't yet meet indoors, and certainly wouldn't go through a busy airport. I wear a mask when I go to pick up prescriptions (outdoors), in case there is anyone else around, but I don't when just out for a walk, because I can just avoid people if need be.

I think everybody needs to make their own decision on what restrictions they think increase their own safety and comfort, balanced against how much quality of life they lose by not doing certain things.

[daveh]

And when they've looked for the virus in real life situations on surfaces they've not found it.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-58052378

[AsleepInYorkshire]

My wife and I are early 60’s no kids and retired. We have had both jabs. I should also say that two dearly loved cousins have died from Covid, so I don’t think I am being totally irrational.

If early February my father in law fell. He detached ligaments in both knees and needed emergency surgery. About a month ago he was moved to a care home after being in hospital since his fall. During his stay in hospital he tested positive for Covid. At the time he had only had one C19 injection. His symptoms were very mild and he's still with us. He's 73 and suffers with Parkinson's Disease.

About a month ago one of the team on one of our building sites was diagnosed with C19. He had received 2 vaccinations. His symptoms were moderate.

I have had no other experience of C19. I am 59 and have a sleep related breathing disorder. Statistically it has been shown that people with my disorder who go into hospital with C19 are three times more likely not to leave. That was before the vaccine was introduced so I don't know what the stats are now.

I would sooner die living than live dying

Good luck in whatever you chose to do. I hope you find some useful information.

AiY

[9873210]

There are, of course, no statistics on how people have caught covid 'cos it is extremely difficult, if not impossible in most cases, to determine how a covid sufferer acquired the virus.

It is my understanding that Australia, South Korea and a few other countries* have spent the last year tracking the vast majority of transmissions in their countries. Sequencing each infection to build a phylogenetic tree tells you who infected whom. Intensive detective work tells you how, in most cases with a high degree of certainty.

I'm pretty sure I've seen second hand reports from these countries on what works. If I wanted to run them to ground that's where I'd start.

* Possibly including China, but that's behind the Great Firewall.

[Itsallaguess]

We are worried that this pandemic will go on for years as so many people continue to behave in such an irresponsible way.

The more they do, the more the infections and the increased risk of new variants which may also be vaccine resistant.

Why are these people behaving like that?

I think the first thing I want to say is 'Try not to be too hard on yourself...'

I think the way you're currently feeling about the situation is really not too far away from where many of us were when the risk from COVID was at it's highest, with high transmission rates, full-to-bursting hospitals, and no vaccine available to begin the fight back.

You don't have to feel guilty about still being naturally nervous about things, and I've got to say that I started a thread a while back where I was fully expecting some parts of the population to need more time than others to process the huge improvements that have recently been achieved -

https://www.lemonfool.co.uk/viewtopic.php?t=30061

In that thread, I likened the processes we're currently going through as being similar to deep-divers, where they need decompression time to allow their bodies to acclimatise to surface-pressure, and I do think that some people are likely to need much longer times than others to achieve a sense of safety that's anywhere near what we used to call 'normal'....

But so what?

I suspect that over the medium term, even if you carry on as you are today, then so long as you're taking notice of the news, and seeing how things go from here, and hopefully see the current improving trends continue to head in the right direction, then your current low confidence is likely to build in a positive way, and when it does, then hopefully you'll feel much more comfortable making the sorts of changes that you're nervously seeing in others today.

You don't have to start now, and you don't have to jump in with both feet if and when you do start, but I'd suggest giving yourself some room to continue as you are if it's not affecting your day-to-day life in too onerous a way, and then just seeing how you feel day to day, and week to week. Take your time, as it sounds like going too fast is likely to cause more problems than going too slow....

Hopefully, if and when you see case numbers continue to fall, especially locally to you, and if that trend continues at a national level as well, then you'll start to gain some confidence. It seems like this is just the way it might have to work out for you, given your current views of the situation, and, well, that's *fine*....

I'm still wearing masks in indoor settings where I've used them in the past. I'm not booking foreign holidays. I'm not bouncing to get down the pub, although I've been out for a few meals in recent months and have felt safe to do so at the pubs and restaurants that I've been to, but I'm still being cautious because I still consider the current infection rates to warrant it, and I'll be adjusting accordingly as we move into the coming months hopefully, but I'll do it at my pace, and I won't be influenced by newspaper headlines of people rushing to get on a cramped plane to Majorca...

They can get on with that if they're happy to do so, but the rest of us can go at our own pace, and if your pace is one of the slowest, but it suits you for it to be so, and you'd feel uncomfortable and concerned going at a different pace, then so be it....

We're nearly 18 months into this thing now, and I really hope you'll feel better about things in a few more weeks or months, but if keeping things as they are for a longer period is something that's important to you, then that's all that matters here...

Best wishes,

Itsallaguess

[mc2fool]

There are, of course, no statistics on how people have caught covid 'cos it is extremely difficult, if not impossible in most cases, to determine how a covid sufferer acquired the virus.

It is my understanding that Australia, South Korea and a few other countries* have spent the last year tracking the vast majority of transmissions in their countries. Sequencing each infection to build a phylogenetic tree tells you who infected whom. Intensive detective work tells you how, in most cases with a high degree of certainty.

I'm pretty sure I've seen second hand reports from these countries on what works. If I wanted to run them to ground that's where I'd start.

* Possibly including China, but that's behind the Great Firewall.

Actually the world leader, in genomic sequencing of covid, i.e. the country with the biggest capacity and that does the most, is the UK. All such data world wide goes into GISAID and is used by the likes of NextStrain to produce their phylogeny showing the evolutionary relationships of covid viruses.

https://nextstrain.org/ncov/gisaid/global (Warning, a not too ancient PC with a reasonable graphics card needed, or the site will drag your system to a crawl!).

I don't see how, if you and I are on the tube and I get covid from you, it can be determined that it was from direct respiratory transmission vs fomite transmission, e.g. you breathing onto a pole which I then touched and rubbed my nose afterwards. However, if they do have such high degree of certainty statistics I'm sure we'd all appreciate a link.