Can anyone reassure us or are we alone?

[1nvest]

On average 1500 people die each day in the UK, of those around 5% are identified as being Covid based deaths. How is that actually determined? Is it died in hospital with a positive Covid test within the last 28 days? Or that Covid was mentioned on the death certificate? Or otherwise?

[murraypaul]

On average 1500 people die each day in the UK, of those around 5% are identified as being Covid based deaths. How is that actually determined? Is it died in hospital with a positive Covid test within the last 28 days? Or that Covid was mentioned on the death certificate? Or otherwise?

Both figures are available.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths
Gives both deaths within 28 days of afirst positive test, and deaths with covid mentioned on death certificate.
The headline figure usually reported is the former, which tends to be lower than the latter.

[gryffron]

On average 1500 people die each day in the UK, of those around 5% are identified as being Covid based deaths. How is that actually determined? Is it died in hospital with a positive Covid test within the last 28 days? Or that Covid was mentioned on the death certificate? Or otherwise?

The news announcements are always quite clear. It is "deaths within 28 days of a positive test". Which could of course mean they had recovered from covid and got hit by a bus. Although I think it is likely more covid deaths are missed than over-reported. It is difficult, because no-one actually dies OF covid, but typically of breathing complications/pneumonia which may or may not have been brought on by covid. Other countries do it differently, which may explain some of the discrepancy in numbers.

Gryff

[pje16]

Those buses seem to kill an awful lot of people

[GoSeigen]

I think a sense of perspective is needed!! Current deaths figure for the UK is hardly a dire yardstick....

Besides, Florida deaths 69pd UK 82pd (7DMA).


GS

So you think the comparison isn't relevant as the UK number isn't sufficiently bad? Odd logic.

Besides, Florida population ? UK population? Or is that also irrelevant?

No I just don't think it's a particularly terrible situation as claimed. The COVID death rate is not far off Florida's average since the start of the pandemic. Clearly it could get worse but IMO it will fit the usual pattern of a short-lived spread which dies out as people take sensible precautions.

When vaccination levels reach the required 80%(??) or so let's see what happens there.

GS

[murraypaul]

Clearly it could get worse but IMO it will fit the usual pattern of a short-lived spread which dies out as people take sensible precautions.

The problem is that this is the US, with a republican state governor and a democratic president fighting over politics.
Sensible takes a back seat.

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/08/05/poli ... index.html

(CNN)Florida's Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis has a message for President Joe Biden: He's not getting out of the way even as his rejection of masking and public health guidance risks fueling his state's raging Covid-19 cases.

DeSantis relished the chance to climb on a national stage to battle Biden on Wednesday, after the President accused him and Texas GOP Gov. Greg Abbott -- who preside over the two states with most new infections over the past week -- of worsening a pandemic that once seemed to have abated.

The confrontation was the latest sign of how DeSantis -- who is expected to be a top contender in the next Republican presidential primary if former President Donald Trump doesn't run -- is weaponizing his stewardship of the emergency to further his own political aspirations, previewing a possible 2024 White House matchup if Biden seeks reelection.

In a new offensive against federal health authorities on Wednesday, DeSantis slammed US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention advice that kids -- including those under 12 who cannot be yet vaccinated -- should wear masks in class. DeSantis has previously threatened to withhold funding for schools that require masks for students, vowing to defend the rights of parents to decide on masking for their own kids. It's a stance that effectively allows individuals to decide whether to fight the virus, a position at odds with experience showing community action is the only way to stop the spread.

Taking his rhetoric up a notch, DeSantis also accused New York City, which is requiring proof of vaccination for entry to bars or restaurants, of creating a "bio-medical security state" that infringed the values of a free society.

When vaccination levels reach the required 80%(??) or so let's see what happens there.

That might be wishful thinking for Florida, which is only at ~59% first vaccinations.

[Sunnypad]

Really relieved to see the Florida governor standing up for common sense.

[swill453]

Really relieved to see the Florida governor standing up for common sense.

In what way? I haven't seen much about Florida up to now, but a quick search shows the Governor attracting criticism as Covid infections and hospitalisations hit new peaks.

Scott.

[zico]

My wife and I are early 60’s no kids and retired. We have had both jabs. I should also say that two dearly loved cousins have died from Covid, so I don’t think I am being totally irrational.

We are still being very cautious, as we have been from the start of all this. We don’t touch post or packages for many days. Groceries delivered by Ocado are cleaned when they arrived. We don’t see our friends, but they seem to be doing whatever they want. We wear masks when we go for a walk and wash our hands all the time. Haven’t been in a shop since March 2020.

Here is the problem. Lifting all the restrictions recently was the worst thing that could happen as we want to get rid of the virus and also get our lives back again. All we read/hear is “if not now, then when?” And my answer is “not when the figures are at their worst in ages and spreading quickly”. We think people doing normal things like there is no pandemic is crazy.
........
Any reassurance that can be given to us would be very much appreciated.

I'm certainly towards the more cautious spectrum of behaviour, but I do quite a lot more activities than you. For me, it's all about balancing benefits against risks, and working out how to minimise risks.
If there are activities you are particularly missing, it's worth thinking about how you could change your normal patterns to do these safely - and of course, whether you're missing them enough to consider a very slight increase in risk of transmission.

Seems like there's very little risk of being infected outdoors if you stay at least 2m from people, so I don't choose to wear masks outdoors, though I might cover my nose and mouth with a mask if going through a crowd of people in the street.
When I'm walking in a town, I choose to keep my distance from people waiting to cross at Pelican crossings - very little inconvenience to me, even if it only slightly reduces my chances of being infected.
Outside visits with friends should have very low risk of infection if you keep at least 2m from them at all times. Higher chances of being infected if you meet friends who have children, or younger unvaccinated people living with them.

Although around 1 in 70 people in UK have Covid, it's important to remember that different groups have very different chances of having Covid. I'd expect your circle of friends would have more like a 1 in a 1,000 chance of having Covid - assuming you don't know a lot of under-30 vaccine refuseniks who use public transport a lot and live in very cramped accommodation with a lot of other family members. So if you met all your friends outside, perhaps only 1 in 1,000 would have Covid, and even then, you'd need to get close enough to them for their exhalations to infect you.

Regarding groceries, I think that just storing your groceries, and then thoroughly washing your hands would be still be negigible risk (though obviously slightly higher than your approach of washing every package).

Here are a few links (from the USA) about grading levels of risk. I liked the "distance, duration, diversity" approach to considering risk, so if you keep your distance, have short durations of interactions with people, and limit the number of different contacts, you're giving yourself the best chance to avoid infection.

https://hartfordhealthcare.org/about-us ... blicId=395

https://www.businessinsider.com/risk-ra ... ?r=US&IR=T

[Sunnypad]

Really relieved to see the Florida governor standing up for common sense.

In what way? I haven't seen much about Florida up to now, but a quick search shows the Governor attracting criticism as Covid infections and hospitalisations hit new peaks.

Scott.

Interesting search results.

They look much better than other states if worldometer is an acceptable source.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Also, they made a point of not locking in elderly care home residents. I'm all about the freedom though. Death from anything would be preferable to the dystopia we're cannoning towards. I'm lucky, I have no children so I can opt out. Others are not so lucky.

Wish de Santis was in charge here

https://twitter.com/jasonrantz/status/1 ... 7642651648

[Lootman]

Here are a few links (from the USA) about grading levels of risk. I liked the "distance, duration, diversity" approach to considering risk, so if you keep your distance, have short durations of interactions with people, and limit the number of different contacts, you're giving yourself the best chance to avoid infection.

Yes, the "distance, duration, diversity" slogan is much better than our dumb "hands, face, space" or whatever line it is.

[murraypaul]

They look much better than other states if worldometer is an acceptable source.

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/corona ... 96703.html

Florida reported 50,997 COVID-19 cases and 100 deaths over the last three days to the federal government as the state continues to see a surge in cases not seen since January, the month with the highest number of COVID cases since the pandemic began 18 months ago.

Florida also broke its record for COVID-19 hospitalizations for the second day in a row, according to the data Florida reported for Monday to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The CDC reported 16,998 new cases and 32 deaths in Florida on Saturday; 16,998 new cases and 32 deaths on Sunday; and 17,001 new cases and 36 deaths on Monday. The CDC did not make the data public until Tuesday afternoon.

Florida, which represents about 6.5% of the U.S. population, accounted for about 21.6% of the country’s new cases on Monday, based on the data the state is reporting to the CDC. Florida’s case count on Monday (17,001) was the highest reported by any state in the country, followed by California (11,137) and Texas (4,358), according to CDC data.

Florida’s seven-day average of new cases was 17,628 as of Monday, a nearly 800 percent increase since the seven-day average of new cases on July 1.

I'd rather be living here than there.

Wish de Santis was in charge here

There we disagree.

[Julian]

They look much better than other states if worldometer is an acceptable source.

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/corona ... 96703.html

Florida reported 50,997 COVID-19 cases and 100 deaths over the last three days to the federal government as the state continues to see a surge in cases not seen since January, the month with the highest number of COVID cases since the pandemic began 18 months ago.

Florida also broke its record for COVID-19 hospitalizations for the second day in a row, according to the data Florida reported for Monday to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The CDC reported 16,998 new cases and 32 deaths in Florida on Saturday; 16,998 new cases and 32 deaths on Sunday; and 17,001 new cases and 36 deaths on Monday. The CDC did not make the data public until Tuesday afternoon.

Florida, which represents about 6.5% of the U.S. population, accounted for about 21.6% of the country’s new cases on Monday, based on the data the state is reporting to the CDC. Florida’s case count on Monday (17,001) was the highest reported by any state in the country, followed by California (11,137) and Texas (4,358), according to CDC data.

Florida’s seven-day average of new cases was 17,628 as of Monday, a nearly 800 percent increase since the seven-day average of new cases on July 1.

I'd rather be living here than there.

Wish de Santis was in charge here

There we disagree.

And the UK has just over 3 times the population of Florida so to even begin to have a fair comparison with the UK one should triple the Florida figures to at least approximate the adjustment for population size. Another confounding factor re new case numbers might well be testing rates. The UK does an awful lot of tests per day, I'm not sure how the tests-per-100,000-people figures compare in Florida vs the UK.

- Julian (also not a member of the de Santis fan club)

[88V8]

Yes, the "distance, duration, diversity" slogan is much better than our dumb "hands, face, space" ..

I'm afraid that over here, the term 'diversity' has been hijacked by forces of evil....

V8

[9873210]

Just looking at current new case numbers seems like an error. Different areas will have surges at different times. A sub-tropical climate may have a natural spike in the summer, during air conditioning season. You want to look at things like total deaths per capita over the entirety of the epidemic, where FL still has a slim advantage over the UK, despite the current condition. I don't expect it, but there is still time for a million Australians to die.

If I were in Florida I would also prefer DeSantis to be leading the UK.

[murraypaul]

And the UK has just over 3 times the population of Florida so to even begin to have a fair comparison with the UK one should triple the Florida figures to at least approximate the adjustment for population size. Another confounding factor re new case numbers might well be testing rates. The UK does an awful lot of tests per day, I'm not sure how the tests-per-100,000-people figures compare in Florida vs the UK.

The same article says that Florida's positive test rate is 18.76%, compared to the UKs 2.83%.
Total tests in last 7 days are given as 496k, and last 7 days per 100k as 2309 here: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracke ... er100k7day
UK total tests in last 7 days are given as 5.4M here: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/#
We do test a lot, don't we?

[Sunnypad]

To be clear, I don't give a stuff about the casedemic

I meant I'd rather de Santis was in charge because of the way he views the matter. I'd like to live while I'm alive.

I will shuffle off as I'm clearly a minority.

[Julian]

To be clear, I don't give a stuff about the casedemic

I meant I'd rather de Santis was in charge because of the way he views the matter. I'd like to live while I'm alive.

I will shuffle off as I'm clearly a minority.

You’re entitled to do what you want but please don’t count me as a silencing force. I might personally disagree quite strongly with what I understand as your views(*) and express my disagreement but we shouldn’t be an echo chamber here and your opinion has just as much right to be expressed as anyone else’s.

- Julian

(*) That “what I understand as” qualifier because with the relatively restricted bandwidth of forums sometimes nuance can be lost or even complete misunderstanding arise. Maybe not the case here but I’m just covering my ar#e,

[onthemove]

To be clear, I don't give a stuff about the casedemic

I meant I'd rather de Santis was in charge because of the way he views the matter. I'd like to live while I'm alive.

I will shuffle off as I'm clearly a minority.

I don't think you / we are in the minority, or at least if we are, it certainly isn't a small 'minority'.

I, and I suspect others, haven't bothered challenging many of the comments on the thread, in part because the arguments about Texas, Florida, or whereever, are rather irrelevant, and if people want to argue the t**s of which is 'better', then I'm just going stand to one side and leave them to it.

In other parts of the thread, I had actually spent a while composing a long response to the OP's subsequent reply, but stopped short of clicking submit because you'd already got in first and pretty much covered most of it, so I just gave your post a thumbs up instead.

Initially I gave the OP the benefit of the doubt, bearing in mind the hysteria in the news, etc, and with that being most people's only view on the world it's quite understandable how people can end up thinking such things, without being crazy or irrational, but when it became apparent that they weren't for listening to anyone who doesn't share their view, then I just figure if the OP wants to stay indoors and act all OCD, then fine, that's not my concern, and while they sit there, smug and arrogant, thinking they are morally superior, so what? Let's leave them to it. I'm not going to spend any longer trying to provide any balance to the debate if they're not interested in listening.

What I'm saying is that just because people aren't jumping in to argue with you (I mean alongside you backing up your point), don't assume it's because others don't agree with you. It's more because since the rules are now relaxed and we can largely do what we like, then there's no point arguing. If we want to take more risks (at a level we deem appropriate) we're now permitted. If the OP et al want to stay covering under the sofa, they are also permitted to do so as well.

So there isn't such a need to argue now. As you've mentioned before, if some people want to tunnel vision and think only of minimising deaths and nothing else, then as long as they're no longer dictating how I can live my life, then what the heck, just leave them to argue amongst themselves.

It's quite funny really. I'm usually a really hesitant person out and about. I mean, when the seasons change from winter to summer and so on, I'm usually the last person out in the most inappropriate clothing, because I'm too nervous about being seen to have changed to wearing something different to the day before - I always tend to wear the same things, day in, day out, and usually find it difficult to change. So I'll still be wearing just a t-shirt when it's way too cold, and then after winter still wearing my coat when it's way too warm.

Yet, maybe it's just because I'm getting older now, but I've managed to find the confidence to go shopping without a mask without waiting to see what other people do. I don't 'deny covid' or anything like that... I still keep a distance from everyone, still shop a times when the shops will be quieter... it's only the mask that I choose not to wear ...

... and I find it quite amusing that the past few weeks, I seem to have been the only one still using hand sanitizer provided at the door of the supermarket ... all those with masks walk straight past it without using it, then use their hands to adjust their face masks, usually handling the mask right on the part they're breathing through - i.e. the 'contaminated' part - and then walk around the store handling all the produce... that's produce that others have touched after handling their face mask and not using sanitizer on their hands. Go figure!

I noticed that Tesco now have quite a strong air flow from their air conditioning. I presume that this is a more discreet anti-covid measure. The volume of air they seemed to have circulating made it almost feel like outside. It wasn't like a strong draft, but it seemed to be very broad, like they've made a big effort to make it cover everywhere in the store - like being outside on a nice day with a pleasant gentle breeze in every aisle. It does help that the Tesco I shop at is a huge store, with plenty of space. (I still haven't been in the Morrison's that I also used to shop at pre-pandemic, because that's a small store, and no chance of keeping a distance from other people... I'll wait a couple more months at least before returning there).

I suspect apart from where people collect at the checkouts, the rest of the (Tesco) store is probably no higher risk than outside. And credit to Tesco, all through the pandemic they've prioritised the checkouts to ensure there's hardly any of a queue, at least not at the times I shop, so time at the checkouts is minimised.

I suppose what I'm saying is that many of us now don't see the point in arguing. We are no longer being treated like little kids, and we can adapt how we play our part best suited to our personality, etc.

There's now less of the horrendous polarisation that has been front and centre throughout the pandemic. I mean, up until recently, if you weren't 110% gung-ho for demanding masks everywhere, demanding that everyone be locked up, etc, you were automatically pigeon-holed as a covid-denying, anti-vax, 5g conspiracist, Trump supporting, fruit and nut loop. There was no in between. You couldn't have a rational debate. The moment you questioned anything, however small, or tried to get some balance, that was it... you were assumed to be all of the above mentioned.

It mattered previously, because those covid dictators were mandating through the law how we must behave. So good reason to vocally argue against it.

But now, so what?

And more over, it seems that the public behaviour has actually defied all the doom and gloom merchants. It has become increasingly apparent that when restrictions were lifted, cases have actually gone down. Even the scientists are now starting to accept that they underestimated people and their behaviour - i.e. it is very apparent that people are more intelligent than the government or scientists, or even the rest of the public give them credit for.

And in actual fact it seems that when you don't dictate how people must behave and let them make their own judgements for themselves, it actually looks like we are doing a better job than when we were being told what to do.

And there's some sense in that, because clearly a one-size-fits-all isn't going to work for everyone. But if you let people adapt their behaviour in their own ways, and don't dictate what they must do, it appears that the end result is actually more effective. People are able to adapt their behaviour in the ways that they themselves are best able.

So yeah, since we can now each choose how best we can play our part - and it will be different for everyone - then meh, what's the point in arguing.

That's no to say I won't from time to time still enter into debate... but I'm not necessarily going to waste time going round the same circular arguments every time with people clearly steadfast in their views. Let's just let them argue amongst themselves over which country has done the 'best'. Or whatever.

I mean lets face it, even australia is now struggling - I'd rather be here than Australia at the moment! And even China who many looked to as an example of eradication, now seems to be accepting that eradication may not be possible, as they are now dealing with new outbreaks, even with supposedly closed borders. (I had a quick look for the link again for the article (either BBC or guardian), but a first page result from google hasn't found it, but I doubt it would make any difference anyway, even if I spent more time to dig it out, so I'm not going to bother looking any further.)

In summary - I don't think you're alone.

I think the majority now accept that the pandemic is all but over. The majority (certainly of the main at risk groups) have had the vaccine. If the vaccine doesn't work - particularly when it's been so spectacularly successful in the trials, beating everyone's best hopes - if it turns out now to not work, then there are no grounds at all to believe that anything else is going to come around and help us.

In short - this is it. We are opening up.

The vaccines look like they are working, which is great.

But if they don't, or variants evade them, I don't think the public have the patience to go through all the pandemic rigmarole again.

We are now entering the 'acceptance' phase ... clearly for some (like the OP) it's going to take longer than others... but this is it. This is the covid that we are going to have to LIVE with going forwards.

And you're not alone... we've already lost well over 1 year of our lives being dictated to how we must act... enough's enough... I think most people now accept it's time to accept the risk as it is and start LIVING again.

[Dod101]

I will not repeat or copy your lengthy post but I agree with most of what you are saying (I think!) It is at least helpful to get back more or less on subject.What seems to be lost now is that we are at risk always and every day irrespective of what we do.The risk of catching Covid and the risk of getting really ill from it seems much less than a lot of the other risks that we knowingly or otherwise run most days. I am clear that the OP is paranoid and 'way over the top with his precautions, but that of course is not what he wanted to hear. I certainly cannot reassure him, although I am pretty sure he and his wife are not alone.

Incidentally when I first read the heading for the thread, I thought it was something to do with spacemen. Maybe it is, spaced out that is.

Dod