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[XFool]

Colin Powell, former secretary of State who made case for Iraq invasion, dies of Covid complications at 84

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/18/colin-powell-former-secretary-of-state-who-made-case-for-iraq-invasion-dies-of-covid-complications-at-84.html

[88V8]

Colin Powell, former secretary of State who made case for Iraq invasion, dies of Covid complications at 84

Well, at 84, he had what my father would have called a 'good innings'.

Half-heard a SAGE member on R4 at lunchtime talking about the need to get our booster programme going, the fact that one's resistance to infection is waning - already - albeit continued resistance to severe infection remains.

v8

[dealtn]

Half-heard a SAGE member on R4 at lunchtime talking about the need to get our booster programme going, the fact that one's resistance to infection is waning - already - albeit continued resistance to severe infection remains.

v8

It is going though. Both my parents, and my in-laws had theirs earlier this month.

[Hallucigenia]

Colin Powell, former secretary of State who made case for Iraq invasion, dies of Covid complications at 84

Well, at 84, he had what my father would have called a 'good innings'.

And multiple myeloma - cancer of white blood cells in the bone marrow which knackers your immune response, let alone whatever chemo etc he was being given to treat it.

It is going though. Both my parents, and my in-laws had theirs earlier this month.

It's not going fast enough though - there seems to be a general lackadaisicalness in the booster programme compared to the urgency of giving the same people their original jabs, there's some concern that it won't be able to keep up with the rates of February/March/April, given that there's a fairly hard deadline in the form of Christmas when the amount of virus circulating is likely to spike even higher than it is now.

As I keep saying, it's the numbers in ICU that should be the real metric at the moment - although not quite as bad as it was it's showing signs of following hospital admissions which have been creeping up since 3 October. Still, at nearly 800 on ventilation it's nearly 20% of total ICU capacity, and locally it can be much more, see eg this ICU consultant :
https://twitter.com/andymoz78/status/14 ... 4553071626

[as an aside, Conway Morris is not a common name, I assume he must be a relative of Simon Conway Morris who flipped Hallucigenia on its back...]

[Bouleversee]

Colin Powell, former secretary of State who made case for Iraq invasion, dies of Covid complications at 84

Well, at 84, he had what my father would have called a 'good innings'.

Half-heard a SAGE member on R4 at lunchtime talking about the need to get our booster programme going, the fact that one's resistance to infection is waning - already - albeit continued resistance to severe infection remains.

v8

I'm not sure there was ever much resistance to infection. My l6 yr old grandson had his first Pfizer jab in August and a PCR today confirmed that he has Covid, fortunately not suffering much. He's been isolating in his bedroom since a lateral flow test showed positive. It will be interesting to see whether the rest of his immediate family get it. I, despite being triple jabbed and having also had a good innings, will be keeping well away.

[Julian]

Colin Powell, former secretary of State who made case for Iraq invasion, dies of Covid complications at 84

Well, at 84, he had what my father would have called a 'good innings'.

And multiple myeloma - cancer of white blood cells in the bone marrow which knackers your immune response, let alone whatever chemo etc he was being given to treat it.
…

Indeed. I noticed tonight that the BBC was describing him as “fully vaccinated” based on, by their reporting, the fact that he had had 2 doses of a C19 vaccine. Debatable in my opinion/understanding. Perhaps the reporting that I saw was wrong and he had had a third dose but as I understand it when the UK first announced third shots to a specific target cohort it was not the start of the booster program, that was yet to be decided, rather it was a regimen adjustment to a very specific cohort of the immuno-compromised where it was thought that only two doses had not induced a satisfactory immune response as opposed to a booster program aimed at boosting a previously satisfactory but now waning immune response. On that basis Colin Powell, definitely immuno-compromised, might well have needed at least 3 doses to be considered fully/sufficiently vaccinated.

Sort of on the same subject, does anyone else suspect a recent paucity of new clinical data on some of this stuff? I was very impressed with UK data publication in the past but now find myself frustrated. For instance the Southampton Cov-boost study looking at booster shots did release (encouraging) interim results on safety a few months ago now and as I understand it interim efficacy data from that study and probably others informed the UK government’s decision on booster shots but I have not been able to find even interim efficacy data from the Southampton study. I see stuff from Israel, again encouraging but specifically for boosting Pfizer initial vaccine dosing, but I have not been able to find any UK data on any vaccine (AZ of personal interest to me). Have a I not found stuff or is the data not published?

- Julian

[Hallucigenia]

Perhaps the reporting that I saw was wrong and he had had a third dose

but specifically for boosting Pfizer initial vaccine dosing, but I have not been able to find any UK data on any vaccine (AZ of personal interest to me). Have a I not found stuff or is the data not published?

I think I saw that Powell was due a booster this week, but the virus had other ideas. Certainly he would be a classic case of someone who was worth boosting.

There was a new paper/preprint? in the last few days that covered most of the combinations, with the caveat that a lot of the data was collected in the US before delta really hit. But I can't find it on a quick look, I'll have a proper look tomorrow. TLDR - boosters work pretty well.

OTOH, this paper suggests most of the drop-off seen in New York state is an artefact of delta showing up halfway through many studies, rather than a problem with vaccine fade.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 21264595v1

And now AY.4.2, a mutant of delta that is nudging 10% of UK infections, is looking like it could be 10-15% more transmissible than delta....

[Bouleversee]

Do PCR test resuts indicate which variant and/or mutant thereof you have been infected with?

[Mike4]

And now AY.4.2, a mutant of delta that is nudging 10% of UK infections, is looking like it could be 10-15% more transmissible than delta....

I hear it said once in a while that viruses as they mutate, tend to get more infectious and less dangerous. Is this correct in your opinion Hal?

[swill453]

Do PCR test resuts indicate which variant and/or mutant thereof you have been infected with?

No, I think most aren't analysed for that. And even if they are I doubt the information is returned to the testee.

Scott.

[redsturgeon]

Do PCR test resuts indicate which variant and/or mutant thereof you have been infected with?

The normal test won't but any positive tests are subject to further testing to determine the variant.

John

[Bouleversee]

But they don't tell the patient? That's a pity but I suppose it would duplicate the work.

[Hallucigenia]

Do PCR test resuts indicate which variant and/or mutant thereof you have been infected with?

Not in themselves, but as RS said, positive samples will usually go on to genome sequencing.

However, although PCR tests rely on matching the sequence of a fairly small (1-2%) fraction of the viral genome at three different points, sometimes you get lucky and the variant has a mutation that affects one of the three test points. That happened with alpha ("Kent"), by pure chance it happened to break one of the three PCR tests and you could trace the outbreak without genome sequencing, just by looking for PCRs that only had 2 out of 3 tests showing positive. That's not common though.

Right now, you can assume you've probably got delta, although AY2.4 is becoming more common.

[ursaminortaur]

And now AY.4.2, a mutant of delta that is nudging 10% of UK infections, is looking like it could be 10-15% more transmissible than delta....

I hear it said once in a while that viruses as they mutate, tend to get more infectious and less dangerous. Is this correct in your opinion Hal?

Yes, that is of greater evolutionarily advantage than killing the host. The maximum infection population and thus the ideal would be obtained with an infectious agent which spread to everyone and lived in each host until that host died of natural causes. Of course mutations are random so you can get variants which are both more infectous and more deadly but if a further mutation were then to make that variant less deadly it would have longer to spread from an infected host and therefore eventually outcompete that more deadly version.

[Bouleversee]

Do PCR test resuts indicate which variant and/or mutant thereof you have been infected with?

Not in themselves, but as RS said, positive samples will usually go on to genome sequencing.

However, although PCR tests rely on matching the sequence of a fairly small (1-2%) fraction of the viral genome at three different points, sometimes you get lucky and the variant has a mutation that affects one of the three test points. That happened with alpha ("Kent"), by pure chance it happened to break one of the three PCR tests and you could trace the outbreak without genome sequencing, just by looking for PCRs that only had 2 out of 3 tests showing positive. That's not common though.

Right now, you can assume you've probably got delta, although AY2.4 is becoming more common.

I'm not assuming anything in this context as the picture changes all the time. Having heard that infections are increasing and that there is now this new mutant of Delta, I was wondering whether the fact that my teenage grandson had succumbed to Covid so soon after his Pfizer jab might be because he had encountered the Delta AY mutant. If the virus can go on mutating in this way and we lower our defences and can't keep up with vaccinating and getting the virus doesn't prevent reinfection, this could go on for ever. The risk of dying or being seriously ill may be less for most people, but the inconvenience and economic consequences are still very serious, as is the probability of people being seriously ill or dying from other causes because the NHS can't cope. .

[pje16]

I'm not assuming anything in this context as the picture changes all the time. Having heard that infections are increasing and that there is now this new mutant of Delta, I was wondering whether the fact that my teenage grandson had succumbed to Covid so soon after his Pfizer jab might be because he had encountered the Delta AY mutant. If the virus can go on mutating in this way and we lower our defences and can't keep up with vaccinating and getting the virus doesn't prevent reinfection, this could go on for ever. The risk of dying or being seriously ill may be less for most people, but the inconvenience and economic consequences are still very serious, as is the probability of people being seriously ill or dying from other causes because the NHS can't cope. .

How soon after his jab di he get it, as it can take 10-14 days to kick in
I now know more people who have had Covid AFTER their twin jabs, than I knew had it before the vaccines came out
Yes I do know the vaccine does not make you bullet proof, but it seems less reliable than we were led to believe, by all and sundry !

[dealtn]

Do PCR test resuts indicate which variant and/or mutant thereof you have been infected with?

Not in themselves, but as RS said, positive samples will usually go on to genome sequencing.

However, although PCR tests rely on matching the sequence of a fairly small (1-2%) fraction of the viral genome at three different points, sometimes you get lucky and the variant has a mutation that affects one of the three test points. That happened with alpha ("Kent"), by pure chance it happened to break one of the three PCR tests and you could trace the outbreak without genome sequencing, just by looking for PCRs that only had 2 out of 3 tests showing positive. That's not common though.

Right now, you can assume you've probably got delta, although AY2.4 is becoming more common.

I'm not assuming anything in this context as the picture changes all the time. Having heard that infections are increasing and that there is now this new mutant of Delta, I was wondering whether the fact that my teenage grandson had succumbed to Covid so soon after his Pfizer jab might be because he had encountered the Delta AY mutant. If the virus can go on mutating in this way and we lower our defences and can't keep up with vaccinating and getting the virus doesn't prevent reinfection, this could go on for ever. The risk of dying or being seriously ill may be less for most people, but the inconvenience and economic consequences are still very serious, as is the probability of people being seriously ill or dying from other causes because the NHS can't cope. .

Is this not true of many other illnesses such as Flu, Measles etc. as well as other corona and rhino-viruses. It takes a long time to get on top of them (and variants presumably develop), and in the meantime society faces the choice of how many restrictions it wishes to impose as a trade off against the illnesses, deaths, and economic consequences of those restrictions (or lack of them)?

As you say this could go on for (almost) ever. What is society's appetite for dealing with it, or living with it?

[pje16]

The good old common cold is doing the rounds, but in my case its not like the one you normally get
Sore throat 2-3 days
Stuffy nose 2-3 days
hacking cough - so far 4 days
Each symptom has been on it's own
and I have felt ok apart from the symptoms

It's NOT covid it IS a cold
and at over a week now it's annoying

PS My brother, who lives nowhere near me, recently had one for 2 weeks

[Bouleversee]

An article in The Times today headed with "New vaccine is more effective than AstraZeneca, trial finds" starts with "A vaccine developed by Valneva produces a stronger immune response than the Oxford-AstraZeneca jab, according to trial results released weeks after the government scrapped a
1.4 bn. euro deal with the French company to supply 100 million doses." Apparently, antibody levels were about 40% higher after 2 jabs of the Valneva vaccine, compared with the AZN. "However, the researchers stressed that it was impossible to know whether this would translate into better protection." The essential difference between the Valneva vaccine and the others so far used in the UK is that the others only expose the immune system to the spike protein whereas the Valneva contains an inactivated form of the whole coronavirus and is combined with a substance known as an adjuvant, designed to stimulate the body's defences further. It also prompted a good response from T-Cells and fewer participants reported side effects, with no serious adverse events reported.

It will be interesting to see whether this is any more effective against infection and reinfection, assuming it gets regulatory approval when it applies at the end of the year. It is also preparing for trials in children of 5 - 7 and to look at the effectiveness of its vaccine as a booster. I wonder whether it will be as effective with the latest mutant.

The virus is now rampant in my son's school so going back to school (my grandson is in his final A Level year) is proving a mixed blessing. I hope his teachers are managing to avoid the virus and that he doesn't get it again, as did my other grandson.

In answer to Pje's query, he had his first Pfizer jab near the end of August. No appt. as yet for the 2nd.

[bungeejumper]

It is going though. Both my parents, and my in-laws had theirs earlier this month.

It's not going fast enough though - there seems to be a general lackadaisicalness in the booster programme compared to the urgency of giving the same people their original jabs, there's some concern that it won't be able to keep up with the rates of February/March/April.....

It might be lackadaisicalness, but there seems to be a fair shot of chaos in the mix as well. My wife (upper 70s) phoned the GP surgery the other week to get a booster appointment. The receptionist checked her computer and gave her a slot at a local clinic, where five GP practices are currently combining their jabbing operations.

So we turned up for the slot on Saturday, and they refused to jab her because it had only been 179 days since her second jab, and they wanted 180. There were dozens of older people being rejected for the same reason, and the mood out there on the pavement was getting rather stroppy.

For one thing, it suggested that the famous NHS joined-up thinking wasn't working. When the GP's receptionist had booked her in for the appointment, her computer ought to have screamed "no way! Less than 180 days!". But somehow it hadn't. Neither for her, nor apparently for a good many other people on the day. It wasn't so bad for us, of course, because we'd arrived by car, but some of these oldies would have struggled in to the clinic by bus, by hospital minibus, by taxi or by zimmer frame. More than just a tad annoying!

Soooo.... My wife phoned the surgery this morning for another appointment. It was, after all, 182 days since her second jab. But apparently the rules have been changed. She was told that the 180 day minimum between jabs has become 183 days (six months), plus a week. That's 190 days.

So what's ten days between friends? Not much, you might suppose, but that's not quite the point when patients are elderly, infirm, in pain or having to make awkward travel arrangements. And if there's one thing that's going to make people doubt the NHS's word, it's turning up in the rain and being sent away again because somebody's IT isn't up to snuff.

Anybody seen Dido Harding lately?

BJ