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Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

The home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
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This is the home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
Lootman
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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#460654

Postby Lootman » November 24th, 2021, 6:41 pm

88V8 wrote:
Lootman wrote:
XFool wrote:Covid: Europe region faces 700,000 more deaths by March - WHO

Population of Europe is about 750,000,000.
How worried should we be about a death rate of less than 1 in 1,000? Do we think the voters will demand more restrictions to prevent that? On what basis?

Voters are not good at assessing risk. So, on the basis of overblown media panic.

I would like more restrictions here. Modest stuff. Masks in shops and on transport. Vaccine passports.

I would also like mandatory HEPA filters in schools, but as that would cost it obviously ain't gonna happen....

My peeve is more that, ever since the start of Covid, there has been this tendency to report the number of deaths in absolute numbers, without any reference to the underlying population. A number that would be a massacre in Belgium is just a rounding error in China. It sensationalises the situation but isn't that helping for assessing risk.

That said I am with you on vaccine passports. For the life of me I don't understand why the UK has ignored doing that, whilst it is routine in various other countries. I always have my vaccination card with me but nobody ever asks to see it, except when I am overseas.

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#460663

Postby onthemove » November 24th, 2021, 7:10 pm

88V8 wrote:I would like more restrictions here. Modest stuff. Masks in shops and on transport. Vaccine passports.


Why?

"England would only suffer 35,000 Covid hospital admissions if EVERYONE caught virus right now because of previous immunity and jabs, study suggests ...

The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) analysis suggests the NHS is unlikely to be overwhelmed by the virus even in the event of a major surge.
.."
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... gests.html


Hmm... and you say "Voters are not good at assessing risk."

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#460682

Postby 88V8 » November 24th, 2021, 8:07 pm

onthemove wrote:
88V8 wrote:I would like more restrictions here. Modest stuff. Masks in shops and on transport. Vaccine passports.

Why?
....
Hmm... and you say "Voters are not good at assessing risk."

Why?
It's no big deal and it will reduce transmission.
Passports put pressure or the unvaccinated.

Risk... yeah, minimal to me with three jabs, but then why not? I'm not advocating a shutdown or wfh.
So, why not?

V8

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#460685

Postby onthemove » November 24th, 2021, 8:28 pm

88V8 wrote:
onthemove wrote:
88V8 wrote:I would like more restrictions here. Modest stuff. Masks in shops and on transport. Vaccine passports.

Why?
....
Hmm... and you say "Voters are not good at assessing risk."

Why?
It's no big deal and it will reduce transmission.
Passports put pressure or the unvaccinated.

Risk... yeah, minimal to me with three jabs, but then why not? I'm not advocating a shutdown or wfh.
So, why not?

V8


Why do you need to reduce transmission? Cases have been broadly stable over the past few months.

Ditto for why you need to put pressure on the unvaccinated? I've had the vaccine myself, and I'll be getting the booster when I'm offered it, but I respect the decision of people who don't want the vaccine, and I'm not going to bully them into getting it. Telling people they have freedom of choice, but then bullying and manipulating them into getting the vaccine seems more like coercive / controlling behaviour more akin to perpetrators of domestic violence and such. 'But it's for you're own good...!' frequently touted by such perpetrators.

And as that article I linked to indicated - but you have selectively cut out of what you've quoted - "The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) analysis suggests the NHS is unlikely to be overwhelmed by the virus even in the event of a major surge."

The article also went on to explain...

"Britain was branded the 'sick man of Europe' this summer after it dropped all restrictions in England in July and saw cases spiral to as much as 50,000 a day. But experts now say opening up early allowed the country to frontload its cases, meaning more people now have immunity than in Europe. "


The truth is, covid is going to be endemic, we're all likely to get it eventually. So masking up and vaccine passports just delay, rather than prevent.

And - again, as the article pointed out - "The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) analysis suggests the NHS is unlikely to be overwhelmed by the virus even in the event of a major surge." - so why is there any need to delay further? It just drags the pandemic out further without any overall net benefit.

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#460688

Postby servodude » November 24th, 2021, 8:49 pm

pje16 wrote:
XFool wrote:'Firstly, catch your capybara...'
:shock:

Preferably before they eat.... :lol: (see link)
https://www.theverge.com/2016/9/11/1288 ... ls-science


At one level they're just big guinea pigs so we shouldn't be surprised by their cecotrophy (like rabbits it takes two passes through the gut to get out the required nutrients)

They're quite a popular meat stock given their size AND the fact the pope proclaimed them fish (?!) https://thefisheriesblog.com/2017/03/01/beavers-are-fish-during-lent/

- sd

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#460699

Postby Bouleversee » November 24th, 2021, 9:48 pm

onthemove wrote:
88V8 wrote:
onthemove wrote:Why?

Why?
It's no big deal and it will reduce transmission.
Passports put pressure or the unvaccinated.

Risk... yeah, minimal to me with three jabs, but then why not? I'm not advocating a shutdown or wfh.
So, why not?

V8


Why do you need to reduce transmission? Cases have been broadly stable over the past few months.

Ditto for why you need to put pressure on the unvaccinated? I've had the vaccine myself, and I'll be getting the booster when I'm offered it, but I respect the decision of people who don't want the vaccine, and I'm not going to bully them into getting it. Telling people they have freedom of choice, but then bullying and manipulating them into getting the vaccine seems more like coercive / controlling behaviour more akin to perpetrators of domestic violence and such. 'But it's for you're own good...!' frequently touted by such perpetrators.

And as that article I linked to indicated - but you have selectively cut out of what you've quoted - "The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) analysis suggests the NHS is unlikely to be overwhelmed by the virus even in the event of a major surge."

The article also went on to explain...

"Britain was branded the 'sick man of Europe' this summer after it dropped all restrictions in England in July and saw cases spiral to as much as 50,000 a day. But experts now say opening up early allowed the country to frontload its cases, meaning more people now have immunity than in Europe. "


The truth is, covid is going to be endemic, we're all likely to get it eventually. So masking up and vaccine passports just delay, rather than prevent.

And - again, as the article pointed out - "The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) analysis suggests the NHS is unlikely to be overwhelmed by the virus even in the event of a major surge." - so why is there any need to delay further? It just drags the pandemic out further without any overall net benefit.


They are only one voice. I have heard others, including WHO, saying that it is essential to wear a mask in confined places. You may not care if you are one of those who are still dying as a result of a covid infection but for the sake of those who would rather not and may not have any/sufficient antibody immunity, please wear a mask. It would stop you passing on to the vulnerable sny infection (what is today's rate?) you might have acquired by close, unprotected contact. Surely not too much to ask?

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#460707

Postby jfgw » November 24th, 2021, 10:38 pm

servodude wrote:They're quite a popular meat stock given their size AND the fact the pope proclaimed them fish (?!) https://thefisheriesblog.com/2017/03/01 ... ring-lent/


Beavers might smell of fish but how would the pope know that?


Julian F. G. W.

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#460708

Postby onthemove » November 24th, 2021, 10:39 pm

Bouleversee wrote:They are only one voice. I have heard others, including WHO, saying that it is essential to wear a mask in confined places.


Were the WHO talking specifically about the situation in Britain, or generally globally?

As the article I referred to pointed out, the situation in Britain is somewhat different to other countries because the cases have been front loaded from the relaxation of restrictions in summer, that even if everyone in Britain caught covid now, the number of hospitalisations would not be so great.

Bouleversee wrote:You may not care if you are one of those who are still dying as a result of a covid infection...


As I already mentioned, I've already had both jabs, and will be getting the booster as soon as available. However, even before the vaccines, I'm already in the lower risk age range, so it wouldn't be rational for me to live in fear of being 'one of those dying'. Maybe I will be very unlucky and end up one of those dying, even having had the vaccines, but equally I could be hit by a bus, or die in a fire. We have to keep risk in perspective, life isn't risk free. We can't let the fear of dying stop us from living. We've already lost enough months of our lives from really living, with all of the restrictions.


Bouleversee wrote:... but for the sake of those who would rather not and may not have any/sufficient antibody immunity, please wear a mask. It would stop you passing on to the vulnerable sny infection (what is today's rate?) you might have acquired by close, unprotected contact. Surely not too much to ask?


Sorry, but no, this is getting ridiculous. We are transitioning to covid being endemic.

There have always been people vulnerable to existing endemic infectious diseases, but we don't go around wearing masks to prevent spreading flu or colds to protect them.

Where were you nannying people into wearing masks in previous winters to protect the vulnerable from flu?

It's already been established by research that catching covid generates a similar immunity protection (against future infections) compared to the vaccine.

Other diseases like colds and flu don't overly bother us because we get repeatedly exposed to them, so our immune systems stay 'topped up'.

If we keep hiding from covid, then we're going to be dependent on boosters every few months in perpetuity.

Also, research has shown that the immunity from catching covid is broader than from the vaccine (not unexpected because the vaccine only targets a small subset of the virus, whereas infection exposes your immune system to the whole virus).

So protection generated from an infection could provide better ongoing protection against new variants.

So there is a reasonable argument that letting the virus spread now that people have had the vaccines, could help 'bed in' societal tolerance to the virus, helping us build up tolerance to covid like we have tolerance to colds and flus.

We already find ourselves in a preferable position now compared to other countries precisely because we had greater virus spread before other countries, and then relaxed restrictions before them. That's why we find ourselves in a better position now, going into winter, than the rest of Europe.

I've also pointed out (with references, but I'm not going to go digging them out again because I doubt it will change anyone's mind anyway, but if you really are interested just google), that scientists already accept that there have been a number of cases of cancer being cured without medical intervention, but in all cases it appears to be related to the patient having experienced a serious infection. So much so, that apparently deliberately infecting people was actually used for a few years in the last century. It's therefore quite plausible that low levels of infection might (just might, not yet proven though) be helping our bodies combat very, very early stage cancers before they take proper hold and get noticed. It's perhaps no coincidence that rates of cancer increased as our lives have become 'cleaner'.

In general, it's pretty well established that the immune system is in many ways like a muscle - if you don't exercise it, it becomes weaker.

So all in all, sorry, no, it's getting ridiculous all this insistence on greater enforcement of mask wearing and such like when covid cases have been moving side ways for a few months now.

We need to get back to living with - and coming into contact with - infectious diseases and letting our immune systems do what they've evolved over thousands of years to do very well indeed.

If we continue to go around paranoid, wearing masks, washing our hands with disinfectant all the time, then our immune systems will go the way of the muscles of an athlete who stops training and just sits in front of the TV all day.

Is that what you want for your immune system?

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#460709

Postby servodude » November 24th, 2021, 10:43 pm

Bouleversee wrote:
onthemove wrote:
88V8 wrote:Why?
It's no big deal and it will reduce transmission.
Passports put pressure or the unvaccinated.

Risk... yeah, minimal to me with three jabs, but then why not? I'm not advocating a shutdown or wfh.
So, why not?

V8


Why do you need to reduce transmission? Cases have been broadly stable over the past few months.



They are only one voice. I have heard others, including WHO, saying that it is essential to wear a mask in confined places. You may not care if you are one of those who are still dying as a result of a covid infection but for the sake of those who would rather not and may not have any/sufficient antibody immunity, please wear a mask. It would stop you passing on to the vulnerable sny infection (what is today's rate?) you might have acquired by close, unprotected contact. Surely not too much to ask?


If we accept this is endemic (which it appears it will be for a few years at least) then there's going to need to be capacity and capability to cope added to the hospital system.

The current transmission rates in the UK translate to a base line increase in hospital occupancy use of about 4% (and about 20% of ICU capacity) based on today's running weekly totals (sorry for the stats :( ).

As simple capacity requirements those should not be too difficult to deal with
- the disruption though will be quite a bit greater than that would suggest given this is highly contagious and airborne (we're not debating this anymore are we?)
- but this just really means there's some "extra work" to be done when expanding the system (think of things like the old TB wards)

At a personal level, fair enough, someone might not have to care about contracting COVID
- but it's going to derail any other medical treatement they (or anyone they know) might require and continue to do so until such time as it does not
- in addition to the immediate possible consequences of passing it on to someone who "does need to care"

Complacency until that capacity and capability exists, until the extra load required from endemic COVID is subsumed without detracting from the requirements that were already borne by the system seems... complacent?

I don't think the system is quite there yet - so reducing or continuing to mitigate transmission seems like a sensible thing to do
- and practically to do that "every little helps"

- sd

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#460710

Postby servodude » November 24th, 2021, 10:44 pm

jfgw wrote:
servodude wrote:They're quite a popular meat stock given their size AND the fact the pope proclaimed them fish (?!) https://thefisheriesblog.com/2017/03/01 ... ring-lent/


Beavers might smell of fish but how would the pope know that?


Julian F. G. W.


Here's me thinking they mostly ate wood

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#460716

Postby onthemove » November 24th, 2021, 11:00 pm

servodude wrote:The current transmission rates in the UK translate to a base line increase in hospital occupancy use of about 4% (and about 20% of ICU capacity) based on today's running weekly totals (sorry for the stats :( ).

..

Complacency until that capacity and capability exists, until the extra load required from endemic COVID is subsumed without detracting from the requirements that were already borne by the system seems... complacent?


But if it's a capacity issue, logically why do the restrictions need to be related to covid?

Clearly, because we didn't have covid before, and covid is new and causing an need for increased capacity, it leads one to automatically assume that covid should be where the restrictions are required.

But this is more from our culture of queuing. ... covid was here last, so covid should be the thing to 'wait' while we build capacity.

But that doesn't logically follow.

If we just said ... "ok, what things is the NHS now having to deal with and what are their costs?" ... All the different diseases (infectious, genetic, etc), accidents, and so on. And just considered them as though they all appeared today...

... would covid be the one for which we would choose to enact restrictions to manage capacity in the NHS?

Why not restrict alcohol consumption instead? The amount of injuries people cause themselves while under the influence, and the strain that puts on the health service is pretty huge.

And let's not forget alcohol itself is harmful to health even without the accidents it causes!

From what I seen reported in the past, alcohol related 'things' put a huge strain on the health service.

Why not put the restrictions there while we build capacity to deal with the extra strain from covid?

It seems a bit ridiculous to say hey... sure, get yourself drunk, go and jump in the sea and probably end up nearly drowning and using up an intensive care bed.... that's fine... but just make sure you wear a mask because the NHS can't cope with the extra pressure of a few more covid cases as we haven't put in place capacity yet.

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#460718

Postby XFool » November 24th, 2021, 11:09 pm

servodude wrote:
jfgw wrote:
servodude wrote:They're quite a popular meat stock given their size AND the fact the pope proclaimed them fish (?!) https://thefisheriesblog.com/2017/03/01 ... ring-lent/

Beavers might smell of fish but how would the pope know that?

Here's me thinking they mostly ate wood

Popes?

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#460719

Postby XFool » November 24th, 2021, 11:13 pm

onthemove wrote:But if it's a capacity issue, logically why do the restrictions need to be related to covid?

Clearly, because we didn't have covid before, and covid is new and causing an need for increased capacity, it leads one to automatically assume that covid should be where the restrictions are required.

But this is more from our culture of queuing. ... covid was here last, so covid should be the thing to 'wait' while we build capacity.

But that doesn't logically follow.

If we just said ... "ok, what things is the NHS now having to deal with and what are their costs?" ... All the different diseases (infectious, genetic, etc), accidents, and so on. And just considered them as though they all appeared today...

... would covid be the one for which we would choose to enact restrictions to manage capacity in the NHS?

Well it is highly infectious. Just saying... :)

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#460721

Postby servodude » November 24th, 2021, 11:19 pm

XFool wrote:
servodude wrote:
jfgw wrote:Beavers might smell of fish but how would the pope know that?

Here's me thinking they mostly ate wood

Popes?

;)

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#460722

Postby servodude » November 24th, 2021, 11:31 pm

XFool wrote:
onthemove wrote:But if it's a capacity issue, logically why do the restrictions need to be related to covid?

Clearly, because we didn't have covid before, and covid is new and causing an need for increased capacity, it leads one to automatically assume that covid should be where the restrictions are required.

But this is more from our culture of queuing. ... covid was here last, so covid should be the thing to 'wait' while we build capacity.

But that doesn't logically follow.

If we just said ... "ok, what things is the NHS now having to deal with and what are their costs?" ... All the different diseases (infectious, genetic, etc), accidents, and so on. And just considered them as though they all appeared today...

... would covid be the one for which we would choose to enact restrictions to manage capacity in the NHS?

Well it is highly infectious. Just saying... :)


Yeah it's not the fact it's COVID that makes this stuff useful
if it was a new strain of TB, or of measles, or cholera, or plague, or was "THE" strain of the Flu that we're expecting; you would need to keep those infected with it away from everyone else in a medical setting

Anything sufficiently infectious and dangerous would need to be handled the same way
- and you would quickly find its influence reaching beyond the hospitals

- sd

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#460724

Postby ursaminortaur » November 25th, 2021, 12:00 am

Worrying new variant found with large number of mutations to spike protein.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/24/scientists-warn-of-new-covid-variant-with-high-number-of-mutations

Scientists have said a new Covid variant that carries an “extremely high number” of mutations may drive further waves of disease by evading the body’s defences.

Only 10 cases in three countries have been confirmed by genomic sequencing, but the variant has sparked serious concern among some researchers because a number of the mutations may help the virus evade immunity.

The B.1.1.529 variant has 32 mutations in the spike protein, the part of the virus that most vaccines use to prime the immune system against Covid. Mutations in the spike protein can affect the virus’s ability to infect cells and spread, but also make it harder for immune cells to attack the pathogen.

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#460743

Postby Steveam » November 25th, 2021, 8:27 am

Endemic does not equate to inevitable exposure.

We also have little evidence regarding the degree and especially duration of immunity provided by infection.

Best wishes,

Steve

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#460745

Postby Lootman » November 25th, 2021, 8:35 am

XFool wrote:
onthemove wrote:But if it's a capacity issue, logically why do the restrictions need to be related to covid?

Clearly, because we didn't have covid before, and covid is new and causing an need for increased capacity, it leads one to automatically assume that covid should be where the restrictions are required.

But this is more from our culture of queuing. ... covid was here last, so covid should be the thing to 'wait' while we build capacity.

But that doesn't logically follow.

If we just said ... "ok, what things is the NHS now having to deal with and what are their costs?" ... All the different diseases (infectious, genetic, etc), accidents, and so on. And just considered them as though they all appeared today...

... would covid be the one for which we would choose to enact restrictions to manage capacity in the NHS?

Well it is highly infectious. Just saying... :)

So what? Everyone knows that. The important question is, knowing that, what if anything should we do that is different from what we are already doing?

Or put another way, how do people feel about 700,000 Europeans dying by Easter of next year? Bad enough to change anything? Or not?

How about we rephrase that another way with equal validity? Over 99.9% of Europeans will not die from Covid by Easter of next year. Put that way, things don't seem as bad, do they? Fun with words and statistics.

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#460773

Postby Steveam » November 25th, 2021, 10:13 am

Long Covid is I’ll defined but much, much more frequent than death (various estimates and research) but 6 times has been mentioned. I have two friends who are suffering quite badly with long Covid - debilitating symptoms after 3 and 6 months. One is mid 30s and had been single dosed. The other is early 60s and had been double dosed. Neither were hospitalised but both are now having hospital (clinic based) treatments.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01511-z

Best wishes,

Steve

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#460796

Postby vrdiver » November 25th, 2021, 11:36 am

Lootman wrote:Or put another way, how do people feel about 700,000 Europeans dying by Easter of next year? Bad enough to change anything? Or not?

How about we rephrase that another way with equal validity? Over 99.9% of Europeans will not die from Covid by Easter of next year. Put that way, things don't seem as bad, do they? Fun with words and statistics.

Raw statistics can be ignored or made objective (as you say, 99.9% will be OK, which sounds much better than the quantification of the 0.1%).

But, I suspect that once you put a face on it, say a few film crews showing the dead, the dying and the bereaved, it won't be about the 99.9% being OK...

In other news, a very small percentage of all migrants crossing the channel were drowned yesterday. Yet this very small subset of migrants appears to have kicked the French and British governments into at least promising to try to do something about the issue.

As you often say, it's not about facts, it's about values.

VRD


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