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Omicron variant

The home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
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This is the home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
servodude
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Re: Omicron variant

#461296

Postby servodude » November 26th, 2021, 8:59 pm

Hallucigenia wrote:WHO have officially named it omicron, they've not called it "nu" to avoid confusion when a new variant emerges that's not nu.


Did they explain why not "Xi" ;)

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Re: Omicron variant

#461302

Postby zico » November 26th, 2021, 9:19 pm

Gauteng province sounds like somewhere in the back of beyond, but includes both Johannesburg and Pretoria.

From latest I've read on this variant, sounds like it's definitely not back to square one, because existing vaccines still offer decent protection against it, just not as good as against Delta, and brilliant scientists can update vaccines in 100 days if needed (partly because they plan ahead for likely virus evolutions).

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Re: Omicron variant

#461303

Postby monabri » November 26th, 2021, 9:20 pm

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/1 ... is-whitty/

"The delta variant is of greater concern to the UK than the new Covid mutation, England's chief medical officer has said amid rising panic about the omicron strain."

"Prof Whitty said he was more concerned about the risks posed by existing variants, describing the delta epidemic as "undoubtedly the principal thing we need to concern ourselves with between now and Christmas".He told a Local Government Association panel discussion: "We've always known that new variants would crop up from time to time … but there's an awful lot we don't know and I think it's probably not terribly helpful to speculate."

Don't panic until you're told to panic!

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Re: Omicron variant

#461311

Postby zico » November 26th, 2021, 10:14 pm

Julian wrote:
zico wrote:Pfizer have said it will take just 100 days to get a new vaccine tailored to the new variant with regulatory approval.
Aren't scientists amazing?
All governments need to do in the meantime is to take effective measures to delay the arrival and spread of the new variant.

Yes, it’s impressive. I saw that quote about the 100 days that was attributed to the Pfizer CEO but unfortunately it was the first few lines of an article behind a paywall so I couldn’t see more. I wonder how long each of the individual stages are which crudely I could break down into creating the new vaccine, getting the approval, and ramping up production of the new version. I did read somewhere that the first step could literally be done in a few days, it’s pretty much a case of deciding on the new coding sequence and substituting it into the already established manufacturing process. To create volume however I assume the existing manufacturing plants would need to go through some sort of very thorough sterilisation/purging process to make sure all traces of the previous vaccine were expunged so that they didn’t contaminate the new version. I suspect the approval process accounts for a very large part of that 100 day estimate.

- Julian


According to the CEO it's 6 weeks to adapt the vaccine, and 100 days before batches of new vaccine are produced.

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Re: Omicron variant

#461326

Postby 9873210 » November 27th, 2021, 12:36 am

Julian wrote:To create volume however I assume the existing manufacturing plants would need to go through some sort of very thorough sterilisation/purging process to make sure all traces of the previous vaccine were expunged so that they didn’t contaminate the new version.

- Julian

Would you care to expand on that? I would have thought that say a 50:50 mix of new and old vaccine would be perfectly fine (boost against delta and earlier at the same time as immunizing against omicron). On that basis a <1% "contamination" would be unnoticeable.

I'd expect the normal production protocols designed to keep stray chemicals, molds and other pathogens out of the vaccine would be way more than enough, so no special "deep clean" required. You don't want to be sloppy, but you're already a good deal better than not sloppy.

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Re: Omicron variant

#461327

Postby 9873210 » November 27th, 2021, 12:40 am

monabri wrote:"Prof Whitty said he was more concerned about the risks posed by existing variants, describing the delta epidemic as "undoubtedly the principal thing we need to concern ourselves with between now and Christmas".



Good to know somebody is dealing with the long term planning.

(insert head banging against brick wall emoji)

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Re: Omicron variant

#461328

Postby Julian » November 27th, 2021, 12:48 am

9873210 wrote:
Julian wrote:To create volume however I assume the existing manufacturing plants would need to go through some sort of very thorough sterilisation/purging process to make sure all traces of the previous vaccine were expunged so that they didn’t contaminate the new version.

- Julian

Would you care to expand on that? I would have thought that say a 50:50 mix of new and old vaccine would be perfectly fine (boost against delta and earlier at the same time as immunizing against omicron). On that basis a <1% "contamination" would be unnoticeable.

I'd expect the normal production protocols designed to keep stray chemicals, molds and other pathogens out of the vaccine would be way more than enough, so no special "deep clean" required. You don't want to be sloppy, but you're already a good deal better than not sloppy.

In practice you’re right but as I understand it the regulatory authorities are very strict about the quality of the manufacturing process so if the approval is on the basis of it only delivering the revised mRNA coding sequence I suspect the plant would need to be able to demonstrate that there was no “contamination” from the previous vaccine production even if in this case, as you say, that “contamination” might actually be beneficial. Then again, maybe Pfizer will actively specify a “blend” for the revised approval which would lessen such problems.

- Julian

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Re: Omicron variant

#461350

Postby dealtn » November 27th, 2021, 8:34 am

9873210 wrote:
monabri wrote:"Prof Whitty said he was more concerned about the risks posed by existing variants, describing the delta epidemic as "undoubtedly the principal thing we need to concern ourselves with between now and Christmas".



Good to know somebody is dealing with the long term planning.

(insert head banging against brick wall emoji)


This isn't binary. He isn't saying nobody should be concerned about the new variant. Nor is he saying that beyond Christmas those risks, and responses to them, would be the same as in the period he specifically is referring to.

There is a very high chance that many people are dealing with the long term planning.

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Re: Omicron variant

#461358

Postby Mike4 » November 27th, 2021, 9:19 am

I've yet to hear any politician in the media saying the numbers are very small with Omicron, so there is no need to do anything about it.

As they said so often with Delta.

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Re: Omicron variant

#461370

Postby zico » November 27th, 2021, 10:12 am

9873210 wrote:
monabri wrote:"Prof Whitty said he was more concerned about the risks posed by existing variants, describing the delta epidemic as "undoubtedly the principal thing we need to concern ourselves with between now and Christmas".



Good to know somebody is dealing with the long term planning.

(insert head banging against brick wall emoji)


Various modelling approaches (pre-Omicron) show the numbers are expected to go down a lot over the next few months.
Two ways to use this information
1. We don't need to do anything because we'll only have 150 deaths per day for a few weeks.
2. We only need to reintroduce masks for 2-3 weeks to prevent at least 50% of those 150 deaths per day.
(With Omicron around, obvious we snowflake option 2 - but willwe?)

A KLM flight from Johannesburg has had all its passengers tested and 60 were positive (though most may have Delta). Given that UK hasn't tested South. Africa inbound flights in last few days, it's almost certain the Omicron variants already here.

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Re: Omicron variant

#461373

Postby dealtn » November 27th, 2021, 10:19 am

zico wrote:
9873210 wrote:
monabri wrote:"Prof Whitty said he was more concerned about the risks posed by existing variants, describing the delta epidemic as "undoubtedly the principal thing we need to concern ourselves with between now and Christmas".



Good to know somebody is dealing with the long term planning.

(insert head banging against brick wall emoji)


Various modelling approaches (pre-Omicron) show the numbers are expected to go down a lot over the next few months.
Two ways to use this information
1. We don't need to do anything because we'll only have 150 deaths per day for a few weeks.
2. We only need to reintroduce masks for 2-3 weeks to prevent at least 50% of those 150 deaths per day.
(With Omicron around, obvious we snowflake option 2 - but willwe?)

A KLM flight from Johannesburg has had all its passengers tested and 60 were positive (though most may have Delta). Given that UK hasn't tested South. Africa inbound flights in last few days, it's almost certain the Omicron variants already here.


It's certainly possible it is already here. But to paint a more accurate picture it is 61 people on 2 flights, and the destination of the flights, where the resulting tests occurred, were to the Netherlands, not here.

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Re: Omicron variant

#461375

Postby 88V8 » November 27th, 2021, 10:28 am

zico wrote:A KLM flight from Johannesburg has had all its passengers tested and 60 were positive ...

It does make a mockery of the pre-flight testing notion. I heard there were 650 people on those flights so that's a one in ten chance you have of sitting next to someone with Covid.

If we were serious about stopping/delaying the Africa's arrival, we should have turned around the flights that were already in the air... although I do agree, it's already here.

V8

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Re: Omicron variant

#461376

Postby dealtn » November 27th, 2021, 10:33 am

88V8 wrote:
zico wrote:A KLM flight from Johannesburg has had all its passengers tested and 60 were positive ...

It does make a mockery of the pre-flight testing notion. I heard there were 650 people on those flights so that's a one in ten chance you have of sitting next to someone with Covid.

If we were serious about stopping/delaying the Africa's arrival, we should have turned around the flights that were already in the air... although I do agree, it's already here.

V8


How does that work in practice? Stop the leg of the flight from leaving Amsterdam to Manchester? What then stops people travelling to the UK on other flights?

Or do you think "we" can stop a KLM flight to the Netherlands, rather than that decision being one by some other set of non-Uk authorities?

Would you be ok if a Tokyo government prevented a British Airways flight from London to Mumbai?
Last edited by dealtn on November 27th, 2021, 10:46 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Omicron variant

#461379

Postby redsturgeon » November 27th, 2021, 10:44 am

dealtn wrote:It's certainly possible it is already here. But to paint a more accurate picture it is 61 people on 2 flights, and the destination of the flights, where the resulting tests occurred, were to the Netherlands, not here.


I'd go further and say it is probable that it is already here.

John

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Re: Omicron variant

#461382

Postby DrFfybes » November 27th, 2021, 10:49 am

dealtn wrote:
88V8 wrote:
zico wrote:If we were serious about stopping/delaying the Africa's arrival, we should have turned around the flights that were already in the air... although I do agree, it's already here.

V8


How does that work in practice?


It's been done before. 20 years, 2 months, and 16 days ago. An that was 'only' about 5500 deaths.

Paul.

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Re: Omicron variant

#461395

Postby zico » November 27th, 2021, 11:45 am

dealtn wrote:
zico wrote:
9873210 wrote:

Good to know somebody is dealing with the long term planning.

(insert head banging against brick wall emoji)


Various modelling approaches (pre-Omicron) show the numbers are expected to go down a lot over the next few months.
Two ways to use this information
1. We don't need to do anything because we'll only have 150 deaths per day for a few weeks.
2. We only need to reintroduce masks for 2-3 weeks to prevent at least 50% of those 150 deaths per day.
(With Omicron around, obvious we snowflake option 2 - but willwe?)

A KLM flight from Johannesburg has had all its passengers tested and 60 were positive (though most may have Delta). Given that UK hasn't tested South. Africa inbound flights in last few days, it's almost certain the Omicron variants already here.


It's certainly possible it is already here. But to paint a more accurate picture it is 61 people on 2 flights, and the destination of the flights, where the resulting tests occurred, were to the Netherlands, not here.


There are (were?) 5 direct flights per day from Johannesburg to uk, so making the reasonable assumption that over the last few days there'll have been 60 positive Covid cases per flight (as with KLM) that means 300 South-Africa Covid cases arriving here per day, and freely mixing with UK citizens. Even If just 10% of these are Omicron, that's still enough to spread the new variant here. Of course, we could trace/test and isolate all threatened arrivals (probably just a few thousand) because we've spent £37 billion on a system to do just that, so maybe it'll all be fine.

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Re: Omicron variant

#461396

Postby BullDog » November 27th, 2021, 11:47 am

9873210 wrote:
Julian wrote:To create volume however I assume the existing manufacturing plants would need to go through some sort of very thorough sterilisation/purging process to make sure all traces of the previous vaccine were expunged so that they didn’t contaminate the new version.

- Julian

Would you care to expand on that? I would have thought that say a 50:50 mix of new and old vaccine would be perfectly fine (boost against delta and earlier at the same time as immunizing against omicron). On that basis a <1% "contamination" would be unnoticeable.

I'd expect the normal production protocols designed to keep stray chemicals, molds and other pathogens out of the vaccine would be way more than enough, so no special "deep clean" required. You don't want to be sloppy, but you're already a good deal better than not sloppy.

I haven't worked on Covid vaccine production, but I have experience of flu vaccine manufacturing. The vaccines are made by batch production and all equipment is specially designed firstly to minimise residual contamination in equipment and secondary equipment is typically fitted with "clean in place" or "steam in place" systems to ensure no cross contamination between batches. Furthermore, I can only reference flu vaccine experience, but exposure to temperature of more than 60degc for a short period of time (I forget the number) is all that's required to kill 100% of remaining flu virus in equipment. To be honest, I think everyone can be very relaxed about the quality of typical vaccine manufacturing.

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Re: Omicron variant

#461413

Postby XFool » November 27th, 2021, 2:32 pm

It's arrived!

Chelmsford and Nottingham (Cases reported as "linked")

BBC News

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Re: Omicron variant

#461444

Postby BullDog » November 27th, 2021, 6:36 pm

XFool wrote:It's arrived!

Chelmsford and Nottingham (Cases reported as "linked")

BBC News

Naive in the extreme to believe it hadn't. Very happy to see that the authorities are quick to tighten up on incoming travelers this time around. Buys time to get more people vaccinated or boosted up and more time to assess I the vaccines need tweaking in response.

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Re: Omicron variant

#461542

Postby redsturgeon » November 28th, 2021, 10:00 am

Watching the Marr show this morning to try to get a calm overview of where we are this is my take.

South African doctor reports new variant a few days ago that seems highly transmissible and gives rise to a slightly different set of mild symptoms in those patients seen. (NB "mild" just means not needing hospitalisation)

This new variant is found to contain an very large number of mutations and thus could evade the current vaccines.

In the light of this, measures are swiftly taken to limit spread.

A renewed push on vaccines is in place.

Vaccine companies are already looking to prepare new vaccines available in a few months.

In the meantime we may find that best case scenario is that the Omicron variant, though highly contagious is relatively mild and the measures put in place have been an over reaction. We should know more in two weeks.

Worst case scenario is that Omicron evades the vaccine and takes hold in our elderly and vulnerable population and causes a new peak in hospitalisations and deaths but at least we acted quickly to mitigate the worst impacts though more restrictions may be necessary.

We just need to be sensible.

No need to panic or get angry...

John


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