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Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

The home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
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This is the home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
Mike4
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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#462475

Postby Mike4 » December 2nd, 2021, 12:07 am

servodude wrote:
XFool wrote:Covid-19 variants may not evolve to be less dangerous, says Neil Ferguson

The Guardian

Senior UK scientist says extent of threat posed by Omicron will not be clear until end of year

“Most of the transmission has already happened by the time people get hospitalised,” Ferguson told the Commons science and technology committee. “The virus cares about replicating very fast within the respiratory tract and getting out into the environment. If that happens to kill somebody 10 days later the virus really doesn’t care.”


"The virus cares"?!? Oh Neil what are you doing?
I know what you're trying to say but surely you could have found words that weren't literally false to say them?

-sd


i think he meant the evolutionary pressure on a virus not to kill its host before it gets a chance to infect its next host, is absent with coronavirus.

(Edit to finesse the point.)

servodude
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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#462479

Postby servodude » December 2nd, 2021, 12:21 am

Mike4 wrote:
servodude wrote:
XFool wrote:Covid-19 variants may not evolve to be less dangerous, says Neil Ferguson

The Guardian

Senior UK scientist says extent of threat posed by Omicron will not be clear until end of year

“Most of the transmission has already happened by the time people get hospitalised,” Ferguson told the Commons science and technology committee. “The virus cares about replicating very fast within the respiratory tract and getting out into the environment. If that happens to kill somebody 10 days later the virus really doesn’t care.”


"The virus cares"?!? Oh Neil what are you doing?
I know what you're trying to say but surely you could have found words that weren't literally false to say them?

-sd


i think he meant the evolutionary pressure on a virus not to kill its host before it gets a chance to infect its next host, is absent with coronavirus.

(Edit to finesse the point.)


I know that
I know that you know that
I know the virus doesn't care that I know you know that
and I know that because you literally can't think to care if you're a virus (no offence to any viruses reading this - oh wait they can't think! so can't care and so I can't hurt their feelings)

so apologies for my use of the second person pronoun to refer to a virus - it's misleading .... they are bloody viruses
and if anyone out there identifies as a virus and is offended by my remarks - just please for the sake of Mjölnir don't!

- sd

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#462511

Postby pje16 » December 2nd, 2021, 8:34 am

Latest Christmas advice
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59500232
"People should not kiss anyone they do not know over Christmas"
How many of us kiss strangers :roll:
FFS they really should think what they are saying!!!!

redsturgeon
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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#462515

Postby redsturgeon » December 2nd, 2021, 8:51 am

pje16 wrote:Latest Christmas advice
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59500232
"People should not kiss anyone they do not know over Christmas"
How many of us kiss strangers :roll:
FFS they really should think what they are saying!!!!


I remember at Xmas, when I was at university, going back to my home town for Xmas and on Xmas eve everyone in the pub was kissing everyone else.

John

pje16
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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#462517

Postby pje16 » December 2nd, 2021, 8:53 am

redsturgeon wrote:I remember at Xmas, when I was at university, going back to my home town for Xmas and on Xmas eve everyone in the pub was kissing everyone else.
John

Ahhh the recklessness of youth :lol:

Hallucigenia
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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#462561

Postby Hallucigenia » December 2nd, 2021, 10:34 am

The BMJ have done a nice interactive graphic about the relative effectiveness of different interventions :

https://sandpit.bmj.com/graphics/2021/t ... index.html

And a bit about the thinking behind it : https://www.bmj.com/content/375/bmj.n2978

XFool
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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#462653

Postby XFool » December 2nd, 2021, 3:08 pm

pje16 wrote:Latest Christmas advice
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59500232
"People should not kiss anyone they do not know over Christmas"
How many of us kiss strangers :roll:

Well... It does happen, you know.

pje16
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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#462654

Postby pje16 » December 2nd, 2021, 3:13 pm

Not by me it doesn't
hugs yes, but no more than that :lol:

9873210
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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#462691

Postby 9873210 » December 2nd, 2021, 4:33 pm

pje16 wrote:
redsturgeon wrote:I remember at Xmas, when I was at university, going back to my home town for Xmas and on Xmas eve everyone in the pub was kissing everyone else.
John

Ahhh the recklessness of youth :lol:

And Italians.

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#462770

Postby servodude » December 2nd, 2021, 10:05 pm

9873210 wrote:
pje16 wrote:
redsturgeon wrote:I remember at Xmas, when I was at university, going back to my home town for Xmas and on Xmas eve everyone in the pub was kissing everyone else.
John

Ahhh the recklessness of youth :lol:

And Italians.


Time to bring back Joe Dolce for Xmas?
"Shaddap You Face" seems appropriate advice for avoiding COVID?

AWOL
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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#462824

Postby AWOL » December 3rd, 2021, 10:08 am

brightncheerful wrote:
it would then also probably be all over much sooner , and most of us ( the survivors ) will be immune .


As I understand. immunity' comes from two directions: outside help in the form of cures/medication; inside help from boosting one's own immunity through healthy diet ad life-style generally.

According to the figures, the majority of people recover from the virus after a couple of weeks. those that die have pre-existing underlying health problems. When I was in Turkey in about 1968? during the cholera outbreak when Turkey closed its borders, we were told that cholera doesn't kill you, but having a cold and getting cholera will.

As the majority of those positive, whether tested or not) recover then presumably their immune system are strong enough to defeat the virus before it can do any damage for the time being. Or to put it another way, it's not that their immunity is strong enough, but that the immune systems amongst those with underlying health problems are too weak from trying to cope with those particular problems to have any strength to ward off another virulent.

Whether most of us (the survivors) will be immune, yes for the time being, but long term somehow I doubt it. At least not without a radical shift in attitude towards what constitutes a healthy immune system.


The effect of diet on immune performance is relatively modest on average (although this doesn't hold for those with eating disorders, i.e. at the extremes) and also it's worth noting that the patients that are in hospital now are much younger and fitter than before. I think at some point we may understand the genetic and environmental factors at play here but have much to learn.

On reinfection here's an example: My young, healthy, professional wife has just recovered from COVID which was a rough experience where she felt like she may die but I guess is probably in the middle of the range of experiences and in reality was unlikely to die. This is her second time having COVID despite caution and being otherwise healthy. She does run clinics in our local hospital and therefore meets a lot of people (most of them are exempt from mask wearing which increases the risks significantly). This is her second infection in the second half of this year which is shorter than average. I believe overseas data says to expect reinfection on average once every 14 months for COVID19.

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#462879

Postby Gersemi » December 3rd, 2021, 1:44 pm

AWOL wrote:
On reinfection here's an example: My young, healthy, professional wife has just recovered from COVID which was a rough experience where she felt like she may die but I guess is probably in the middle of the range of experiences and in reality was unlikely to die. This is her second time having COVID despite caution and being otherwise healthy. She does run clinics in our local hospital and therefore meets a lot of people (most of them are exempt from mask wearing which increases the risks significantly). This is her second infection in the second half of this year which is shorter than average. I believe overseas data says to expect reinfection on average once every 14 months for COVID19.


That's interesting. How ill was your wife the first time she had Covid? Was she iller or less ill the second time?

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#462903

Postby AWOL » December 3rd, 2021, 3:10 pm

First time she actually didn't notice she had COVID as she had negative LFTs and it may have been when she had a "cold". She had antibodies assayed in June or July and she had no COVID infection antibodies.

When she got LFT and PCR positive results about a month ago they did another antibody test and it showed antibodies from both vaccination (she is triple vaccinated and was vaccinated on day 1 of vaccinations) and from infection which they said is probably due to a prior infection and unlikely to be from the current infection. So she probably had COVID without recognising it, either asymptomatic or mild symptoms.

The recent infection was unpleasant but she did not need hospitalised.

One of my young sons caught COVID shortly after my wife and other than losing his sense of taste was fine.

I am beginning to get delusions of being bullet proof as I have had a lot of close contact with people who didn't realise they had COVID until a day later yet I continue to dodge infection. I am triple vaccinated but realise that chance looks like consequence to the human brain.

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#462993

Postby XFool » December 3rd, 2021, 9:49 pm

Act now against Omicron to stop new Covid wave, UK ministers warned

The Guardian

Government privately being urged by advisers to tell people to work from home until more is known of variant

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#463002

Postby Lootman » December 3rd, 2021, 11:15 pm

XFool wrote:Act now against Omicron to stop new Covid wave, UK ministers warned

Well there is almost always someone advising the government about this, that and everything else. But the official advice the government is getting is to not panic.

In fact the signs so far are that Omicron might almost be the perfect Covid variant, i.e. it is highly infectious but relatively harmless. This means we get a big boost to herd immunity with relatively few serious illnesses or deaths.

So bring it on, Omicron.

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#463012

Postby Julian » December 4th, 2021, 2:25 am

Lootman wrote:
In fact the signs so far are that Omicron might almost be the perfect Covid variant, i.e. it is highly infectious but relatively harmless. This means we get a big boost to herd immunity with relatively few serious illnesses or deaths.

So bring it on, Omicron.

I would hope that any rational person wants that to be how things turn out and my impression from what I have read is that is is a distinct possibility but I have been reading/viewing a lot of expert commentary saying that it is simply too early to make that call; we simply do not have enough outcome data yet to determine the severity vs Delta. Data from South Africa might not transfer to the UK due to the much younger demographic in SA. I’m not going to try and go down fighting in a counter argument with you, if you forced me to place a bet right now I would go along with your point of view, but I think it is too early to be a definite as I (maybe incorrectly) interpret your position. I just hope this period of uncertainty doesn’t last too long because right now I see some sections of the mainstream media running stories with a slant that leans the other way, i.e. “we’re all doomed”, whereas I do think that the “bring it on” scenario really is a possibility.

- Julian

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#463017

Postby servodude » December 4th, 2021, 7:05 am

Julian wrote:
Lootman wrote:
In fact the signs so far are that Omicron might almost be the perfect Covid variant, i.e. it is highly infectious but relatively harmless. This means we get a big boost to herd immunity with relatively few serious illnesses or deaths.

So bring it on, Omicron.

I would hope that any rational person wants that to be how things turn out and my impression from what I have read is that is is a distinct possibility but I have been reading/viewing a lot of expert commentary saying that it is simply too early to make that call; we simply do not have enough outcome data yet to determine the severity vs Delta. Data from South Africa might not transfer to the UK due to the much younger demographic in SA. I’m not going to try and go down fighting in a counter argument with you, if you forced me to place a bet right now I would go along with your point of view, but I think it is too early to be a definite as I (maybe incorrectly) interpret your position. I just hope this period of uncertainty doesn’t last too long because right now I see some sections of the mainstream media running stories with a slant that leans the other way, i.e. “we’re all doomed”, whereas I do think that the “bring it on” scenario really is a possibility.

- Julian


Well and truly got all bits crossed for this to pan out that way!
The only observed issue to date that I'm aware of would be the increase in hospitalisation of the really young (under 5) in South Africa ( presently up 6 fold in previous waves for the under 2s) and putting them in a similar position to those in their 60s. That is alarming in that they need different stuff for treatment from the resources that we've been piling on to these past two years.
But it also could be part of the "reversion to the flu" that's been expected as this becomes endemic (THAT hits the younger worse than wild COVID); with the big caveat that this isn't like the flu in its normal pathology ("it refreshes the parts other viruses fail to reach" :( )

Still too early to know! in vitro tests should be ramping up soon as this gets cultured and a picture should appear shortly
- only Roy Walker would push you to make a guess now ;)

-sd

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#463131

Postby GrahamPlatt » December 4th, 2021, 5:30 pm

Cautious optimism, but really too early to be confident:
https://www.samrc.ac.za/news/tshwane-di ... y-features

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#463134

Postby kiloran » December 4th, 2021, 5:41 pm

I;m not sure if this will be included in the Belgian statistics

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-59516896

Shouldn't they be wearing facemasks?

--kiloran

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#463139

Postby swill453 » December 4th, 2021, 6:26 pm

New change in regulations - "Travellers heading to the UK will now have to have a Covid test before their departure" https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59534685

What exactly happens if you test positive before your flight? You can't get on the plane, and your accommodation certainly doesn't want you any more. What are your options?

Scott.


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