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Re: Coronavirus - Numbers and Statistics

The home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
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This is the home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
Hallucigenia
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Re: Coronavirus - Numbers and Statistics

#499451

Postby Hallucigenia » May 9th, 2022, 3:40 pm

Itsallaguess wrote:Reading these Covid-related boards over the past couple of years, no-one could be blamed for coming away thinking that the UK had a uniquely bad outcome from the pandemic, and the above WHO excess-deaths table shows that to not be the case when compared to the US and some of our large European neighbours...

I very much suspect that we'd have heard a lot more about the above ranking on these boards if the UK had been higher up on it...


I'd take these kinds of thing with a bit of a pinch of salt - if you look at the error bars on these kinds of things they're rather bigger than some of the effects you are looking for. And they've made a rather arbitrary decision to model the baseline with a cyclic cubic spline which seems to have had the effect of making Germany look worse and Sweden quite a lot better. I look forward to the Telegraph discussion of whether spline fitting is the right choice before they make any leaps to simplistic political conclusions...

I don't think anyone is saying the UK has been uniquely bad, but it's still possible for the UK to have been quite crap, particularly in 2020, and for other European countries to have made a lot of mistakes as well. Indeed, the outcome in some of the Pacific countries suggests that in general the response of most of Europe has been sub-optimal.

An interesting one that people don't talk much about here is Canada, which has seen everything from Australia-style tight exclusion in the Atlantic provinces to "let it rip" in the western provinces, and an incompetent populist reacting a month late to everything in Ontario. I leave you to decide which is closest to the UK... Their death rates have ranged from 5-18% of UK levels in the Maritimes, up to 50% in Manitoba. However the "leader" at 60% is Quebec, which has done a lot of things right and wasn't too bad for much of the pandemic, but has been really slammed by omicron - more deaths in 4 months this year than in the whole of 2021. I've not really seen an analysis of what's been going on there, it could be that even if you do most things right, if things are bad enough in your neighbours then they will spill over, particularly when you have a variant as infectious as omicron and everywhere is opening up again "because it's over".

Hallucigenia
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Re: Coronavirus - Numbers and Statistics

#499537

Postby Hallucigenia » May 9th, 2022, 10:03 pm

Ah, the grownups in the form of the COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group have responded in similar vein :

https://covidactuaries.org/2022/05/09/w ... ss-deaths/

The choice of measure for expected deaths makes a huge difference to the comparison between Sweden and Germany. Under the WHO approach, excess mortality in Germany was close to twice that in Sweden. But under the linear trend, excess mortality in Sweden is three times that in Germany.

No doubt we'll see a headline to that effect in tomorrow's Telegraph.

It's almost like this stuff is complicated....

scotia
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Re: Coronavirus - Numbers and Statistics

#499546

Postby scotia » May 9th, 2022, 11:48 pm

Hallucigenia wrote:Ah, the grownups in the form of the COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group have responded in similar vein :

https://covidactuaries.org/2022/05/09/w ... ss-deaths/

The choice of measure for expected deaths makes a huge difference to the comparison between Sweden and Germany. Under the WHO approach, excess mortality in Germany was close to twice that in Sweden. But under the linear trend, excess mortality in Sweden is three times that in Germany.

No doubt we'll see a headline to that effect in tomorrow's Telegraph.

It's almost like this stuff is complicated....

Intriguing! I have no great faith in the accuracy of excess deaths in Europe since the vaccines took effect, and the death rate fell dramatically. It was clearly by far the most accurate statistic at the beginning of the outbreak when Covid deaths were large, and were being substantially underreported. But now with the Covid death rate at low levels, I prefer the reported Covid deaths as a better measure. But I hadn't realised how badly some excess death estimations had become. In response to the Daily Telegraph graph, I calculated the reported deaths per head of population - and made it clear that Sweden's performance was far from optimum when compared to the other Nordic countries. I checked out the French reported deaths, and confirmed that it should lie just above Sweden - as in the Daily Telegraph graph - so I assumed that the rank order of the excess deaths was similar to the rank order of the reported deaths. But if only I had looked at Germany!
Who Covid Cumulative Reported Deaths per million population (to two decimal places)
Sweden 1800; France 2200; Germany 1600
Quite a different ranking order!

Now getting back to the Daily Telegraph graph. The numbers are excess deaths per 100000 in 2020 and 2021. But per 100000 what? No units - a hanging offence in my far off days as a scientist. It would be reasonable to assume per 100000 population, but I noted that there was a factor of about 3 difference in my numbers for Sweden and France compared to the Daily Telegraph numbers (although the rank was the same), so I wondered if it was per annum, compared to the reported deaths which I believe are summed from the start of the outbreak. Any clarification? Surely the excess deaths are not running at around one third of the reported deaths. It was certainly the opposite way round at the beginning of the epidemic. Or am I making some schoolboy error? All help gratefully accepted. :)

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Re: Coronavirus - Numbers and Statistics

#499547

Postby servodude » May 10th, 2022, 12:04 am

scotia wrote: Or am I making some schoolboy error? All help gratefully accepted.


I think you might be making the mistake of starting with the figures rather than the answer you want :roll:

Anyways if you go to the source (a workbook entitled WHO_COVID_Excess_Deaths_EstimatesByCountry.xlsx
And find the "country rates by year" sheet it does seem to confirm the 100,000 is their denominator for population

Code: Select all

pop.e5   Population (in 100,000)
excess.mean   Excess deaths associated with COVID-19 pandemic from all-causes per 100,000 (mean)


- sd

scotia
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Re: Coronavirus - Numbers and Statistics

#499549

Postby scotia » May 10th, 2022, 12:15 am

servodude wrote:
scotia wrote: Or am I making some schoolboy error? All help gratefully accepted.


I think you might be making the mistake of starting with the figures rather than the answer you want :roll:

Anyways if you go to the source (a workbook entitled WHO_COVID_Excess_Deaths_EstimatesByCountry.xlsx
And find the "country rates by year" sheet it does seem to confirm the 100,000 is their denominator for population

Code: Select all

pop.e5   Population (in 100,000)
excess.mean   Excess deaths associated with COVID-19 pandemic from all-causes per 100,000 (mean)


- sd

Thanks - I'm even more confused :)

Hallucigenia
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Re: Coronavirus - Numbers and Statistics

#499802

Postby Hallucigenia » May 11th, 2022, 11:33 am

Interesting chart from Paul Mainwood on the difference between BA1 and BA2, which is hitting the elderly much harder :
Image

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Re: Coronavirus - Numbers and Statistics

#499904

Postby Julian » May 11th, 2022, 5:15 pm

Also more hospitalisations in the elderly as shown in a tweet that Paul Mainwood was replying to when he tweeted the graph Hallucigenia just posted...

Image

Obviously there is an implicit assumption here that the first wave was BA.1-driven and the second wave BA.2-driven.

For the benefit of others like me who had never heard of Paul Mainwood until Hallucigenia's last tweet Google pretty quickly found this for me - https://twitter.com/PaulMainwood?ref_sr ... r%5Eauthor - and then on to this - https://quoranoftheweek.quora.com/Smoot ... -marketing - which I assume is the correct Paul Mainwood.

- Julian

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Re: Coronavirus - Numbers and Statistics

#500047

Postby XFool » May 12th, 2022, 11:15 am

United States passes one million Covid deaths

BBC News

The US has passed more than one million Covid-related deaths, says the White House.

"The US has also recorded more than 80 million Covid cases, out of a 330 million population."


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