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Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

The home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
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This is the home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
doolally
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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#517945

Postby doolally » July 28th, 2022, 3:41 pm

Lootman wrote:I feel people have misunderstood my point here.

There's two possibilities.....
a.....People have misunderstood
b.....The point was not clearly explained.

In my working life while training teams of people, I always took the latter view
doolally

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#517947

Postby XFool » July 28th, 2022, 3:53 pm

doolally wrote:
Lootman wrote:I feel people have misunderstood my point here.

There's two possibilities.....
a.....People have misunderstood
b.....The point was not clearly explained.

There is also a third possibility...

c..... ;)

Lootman
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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#517955

Postby Lootman » July 28th, 2022, 4:05 pm

doolally wrote:
Lootman wrote:I feel people have misunderstood my point here.

There's two possibilities.....
a.....People have misunderstood
b.....The point was not clearly explained.

In my working life while training teams of people, I always took the latter view
doolally

Or a bit of both. Clearly I over-estimated the degree of consensus on what flattening the curve means, so will cop to that.

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#517986

Postby Mike4 » July 28th, 2022, 4:59 pm

doolally wrote:
Lootman wrote:I feel people have misunderstood my point here.

There's two possibilities.....
a.....People have misunderstood
b.....The point was not clearly explained.

In my working life while training teams of people, I always took the latter view
doolally


Or as in the case of quantum mechanics...

c.... If you think you understand, then I can't have explained it properly.

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#518138

Postby vrdiver » July 29th, 2022, 12:08 pm

Lootman wrote:so will cop to that.

Who are you, and what have you done with the real Lootman?

VRD

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#518282

Postby XFool » July 30th, 2022, 10:31 am

vrdiver wrote:
Lootman wrote:so will cop to that.

Who are you, and what have you done with the real Lootman?

:lol:

88V8
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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#519139

Postby 88V8 » August 2nd, 2022, 12:51 pm

Here's a good reason to avoid catching it

The research identified a diverse set of symptoms associated with long COVID, including reduced libido and hair loss.... incontinence, erectile dysfunction and limb swelling.... :o

https://newatlas.com/health-wellbeing/long-covid-hair-loss-libido-three-different-conditions/

V8

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#521992

Postby XFool » August 12th, 2022, 9:18 pm

Where did this madness come from? What does it mean?

A scientist in the public eye has taken her own life. This has to be a wake-up call
Devi Sridhar

The Guardian

Health workers are leaving the field because of the abuse they’ve received over Covid. They urgently need support

"Lisa-Maria Kellermayr, an Austrian GP, was a doctor who dedicated her life to her patients and was vocal about the risks of Covid-19 on Twitter and in the media. She had endured months of death threats from Covid conspiracy theorists and anti-vaxxers. Colleagues expressed frustration with the lack of support she received for dealing with the daily abuse. Last month, Kellermayr took her own life."

Hallucigenia
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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#522849

Postby Hallucigenia » August 16th, 2022, 1:09 pm

As I've posted over in the specific thread, the minister appeared to confirm that they will be giving the new Moderna Wuhan/BA.1 dual vaccine to all 26 million in the autumn vaccination campaign (>50, vulnerable, frontline).

In other news, we have some replication from Brazil of the UK Biobank studywhich showed permanent brain shrinkage after Covid :
https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.2200960119

In this study, we provide evidence that severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is found in the human brain, where it infects astrocytes and to a lesser extent, neurons. We also show that astrocytes are susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 infection through a noncanonical mechanism that involves spike–NRP1 interaction and respond to the infection by remodeling energy metabolism, which in turn, alters the levels of metabolites used to fuel neurons and support neurotransmitter synthesis. The altered secretory phenotype of infected astrocytes then impairs neuronal viability. These features could explain the damage and structural changes observed in the brains of COVID-19 patients.

We're also making progress on long Covid :
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 22278592v1
individuals diagnosed with Long COVID frequently report unremitting fatigue, post-exertional malaise, and a variety of cognitive and autonomic dysfunctions1–3; however, the basic biological mechanisms responsible for these debilitating symptoms are unclear. Here, 215 individuals were included in an exploratory, cross-sectional study to perform multi-dimensional immune phenotyping in conjunction with machine learning methods to identify key immunological features distinguishing Long COVID. Marked differences were noted in specific circulating myeloid and lymphocyte populations relative to matched control groups, as well as evidence of elevated humoral responses directed against SARS-CoV-2 among participants with Long COVID. Further, unexpected increases were observed in antibody responses directed against non-SARS-CoV-2 viral pathogens, particularly Epstein-Barr virus. Analysis of circulating immune mediators and various hormones also revealed pronounced differences, with levels of cortisol being uniformly lower among participants with Long COVID relative to matched control groups. Integration of immune phenotyping data into unbiased machine learning models identified significant distinguishing features critical in accurate classification of Long COVID, with decreased levels of cortisol being the most significant individual predictor.

88V8
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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#522888

Postby 88V8 » August 16th, 2022, 4:12 pm

Hallucigenia wrote:As I've posted over in the specific thread, the minister appeared to confirm that they will be giving the new Moderna Wuhan/BA.1 dual vaccine to all 26 million in the autumn vaccination campaign (>50, vulnerable, frontline).

Well, what I've heard, is that some will get it and some will randomly get the leftovers of our existing vaccine stock.
Whilst it's good to know that someone is thinking about covid-related waste - at last - I can't see that going down very well with those who have been paying the slightest attention.

V8

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#522910

Postby harris1939 » August 16th, 2022, 5:56 pm

88V8 wrote:Here's a good reason to avoid catching it

The research identified a diverse set of symptoms associated with long COVID, including reduced libido and hair loss.... incontinence, erectile dysfunction and limb swelling.... :o

https://newatlas.com/health-wellbeing/long-covid-hair-loss-libido-three-different-conditions/

V8

==============

Hair loss and loss of libido are symptoms of long covid? REAAAALLLY?????????????????? LOL!!!!!

Any ailment seems to be long covid, provided you ever had covid! I caught covid in 2020, I am elderly, have co morbidities. Must have been exposed to covid multiple times since 2020 as a result of my love for rock n roll partner dancing (despite my age). Not had any of the covid vaccines.

I had a headache this morning.

Long covid?

pje16
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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#522912

Postby pje16 » August 16th, 2022, 6:01 pm

harris1939 wrote:Hair loss and loss of libido are symptoms of long covid? REAAAALLLY?????????????????? LOL!!!!!

I must have had Covid 30 odd years ago

(Hair loss before any smartypants comes along :lol: )

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#522963

Postby Lootman » August 16th, 2022, 9:21 pm

pje16 wrote:
harris1939 wrote:Hair loss and loss of libido are symptoms of long covid? REAAAALLLY?????????????????? LOL!!!!!

I must have had Covid 30 odd years ago

(Hair loss before any smartypants comes along :lol: )

In the same way that Covid picked mainly on those with pre-existing conditions, frailties and co-morbidities, perhaps that is also the case with the so-called Long Covid.

So neither is much of a threat if you are young and/or healthy. But if you are not then Covid will exacerbate and exploit the already existing weakness and condition.

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#525156

Postby redsturgeon » August 25th, 2022, 10:37 am

Moderator Message:
Please remember no politics here. I have moved the offending posts to CAN, under the leadership election topic.

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#525171

Postby servodude » August 25th, 2022, 12:06 pm

redsturgeon wrote:
Moderator Message:
Please remember no politics here. I have moved the offending posts to CAN, under the leadership election topic.


Apologies for not noticing where I was replying. :(

To bring this back on topic...
..isn't it great to see the worst parts of the pandemic being resigned to the "this day X years ago" on your photos feed!? Two years ago today I was apparently wearing tartan face masks when I could (work required the heavy duty ones)

I don't want to jinx it... but I think we might have got through it OK
I really hope we can learn the right lessons (or get the best results from the lessons it has presented us)

And sincere thanks to all of you here for giving us a place to bounce around our thoughts during the worst of it

:)

-sd

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#525183

Postby 88V8 » August 25th, 2022, 12:56 pm

servodude wrote:I don't want to jinx it... but I think we might have got through it OK
I really hope we can learn the right lessons (or get the best results from the lessons it has presented us).

I agree.
But it's good that we haven't entirely forgotten it... took our cat to the vets this morning and the staff are still masked. I'd forgotten mine.... Hope we still have the necessary in the back of our minds this autumn.

V8

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#525196

Postby servodude » August 25th, 2022, 1:34 pm

88V8 wrote:
servodude wrote:I don't want to jinx it... but I think we might have got through it OK
I really hope we can learn the right lessons (or get the best results from the lessons it has presented us).

I agree.
But it's good that we haven't entirely forgotten it... took our cat to the vets this morning and the staff are still masked. I'd forgotten mine.... Hope we still have the necessary in the back of our minds this autumn.

V8


I do that myself... forgetting that is still expected in some places.
Generally they're Ok about it... I'll awkwardly fumble and pretend I've lost it out my pocket and they'll hand me one with a "no bother we all do it"
it's not like I'm being all "scientists what do they know?!" or some such stupid ;)

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#525202

Postby XFool » August 25th, 2022, 1:51 pm

servodude wrote:I'll awkwardly fumble and pretend I've lost it out my pocket and they'll hand me one with a "no bother we all do it"
it's not like I'm being all "scientists what do they know?!" or some such stupid ;)

LOL! But then, there's still climate change 'debates'... :)

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#525211

Postby Hallucigenia » August 25th, 2022, 2:21 pm

harris1939 wrote:Hair loss and loss of libido are symptoms of long covid? REAAAALLLY?????????????????? LOL!!!!!

Any ailment seems to be long covid, provided you ever had covid! I caught covid in 2020, I am elderly, have co morbidities. Must have been exposed to covid multiple times since 2020 as a result of my love for rock n roll partner dancing (despite my age). Not had any of the covid vaccines.

I had a headache this morning.

Long covid?


It certainly seems that you could be facing neurological damage given that you had some brain fog around this part of the article :

This cohort was matched against a control of around two million patients with no record of COVID-19 infection...After accounting for factors such as age, weight and pre-existing health conditions, the differences in symptom reporting between the two groups remained, suggesting the symptoms could be associated with COVID-19.

So if each group had 2 million people, and 100k of the control group and 100k of the Covid group found their hair went grey during the study period, you would conclude that there is an underlying rate of hair going grey, and Covid doesn't affect that.

Whereas if 100k of the control group had hair loss but 300k of the Covid group had hair loss, you would conclude that there is an underlying rate of hair loss in the population AND Covid may increase that rate of hair loss.

Two things can be true at the same time.

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#525222

Postby Hallucigenia » August 25th, 2022, 3:09 pm

Various papers :

Lifting mask mandates leads to more Covid :
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 1.full.pdf
In February 2022, following the rescinding of a Massachusetts statewide school masking mandate, only two cities (Boston and neighboring Chelsea) out of 79 school districts in the greater- Boston area, maintained masking requirements in K-12 schools. This provided an opportunity to examine the impact of removing masking on COVID-19 case rates among students and staff in the public-school setting.....
Before the statewide school masking policy was lifted, there was no statistically significant difference in case rate trajectories between school districts. However, weekly and cumulative case rates were significantly higher in students and staff in school districts that removed masking requirements, compared to districts that had not yet lifted requirements. We estimate that lifting of school masking requirements was associated with an additional 44.9 (95% CI: 32.6, 57.1) COVID-19 cases per 1,000 students and staff over the 15 weeks since the lifting of the statewide school masking requirement, representing nearly 30% of all cases observed in schools during that time.


Model suggests ventilation of 10l/s indoors cuts the risk to the same as outdoors :
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8652937/
The model considers the involvement of exhaled droplets with initial diameter ≤50 µm in the short‐range airborne route, whereas only a fraction of these droplets with an initial diameter within 15 µm or equivalently a final diameter within 5 µm considered in the long‐range airborne route. One surprising finding is that the room ventilation rate significantly affects the short‐range airborne route, in contrast to traditional belief. When the ventilation rate in a room is insufficient, the airborne infection risks due to both short‐ and long‐range transmission are high. A ventilation rate of 10 L/s per person provides a similar concentration vs distance decay profile to that in outdoor settings, which provides additional justification for the widely adopted ventilation standard of 10 L/s per person. The newly obtained data do not support the basic assumption in the existing ventilation standard ASHRAE 62.1 (2019) that the required people outdoor air rate is constant if the standard is used directly for respiratory infection control. Instead, it is necessary to increase the ventilation rate when the physical distance between people is less than approximately 2 m.

Massachusetts is no longer seeing excess mortality from Covid since widespread vaccination, it's decoupled from Covid cases and hospitalisations :
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lani ... 73-3099(22)00547-3/fulltext
In the 18-week period after BA.2, BA.2.12.1, BA.4, and BA.5 subvariants became prevalent (week ending Feb 27, 2022; appendix pp 2–3), there have been 0·1 excess deaths per 100 000 person-weeks, corresponding to 134 excess deaths (95% CI –921 to 1189; appendix pp 2–3), despite at least 226 857 newly recorded cases, as evidenced by corresponding substantial spikes in SARS-CoV-2 wastewater levels and changes in testing volume (appendix pp 2, 4–5). This value corresponds to a 97·3% reduction in excess mortality compared with the 8-week initial omicron (B.1.1.529) wave, during which excess mortality was 4·0 per 100 000 person-weeks (2239 excess deaths; 95% CI 1746–2733), and a 92·7% reduction in excess mortality compared with the combined 26-week delta (B.1.617.2) and delta-to-omicron transition periods, during which excess mortality was 1·5 per 100 000 person-weeks (2643 excess deaths; 95% CI 1192–4094). However, new COVID-19-associated hospitalisations continued to occur during this period (figure B), either reflecting background community prevalence or that new COVID-19 cases were less severe or exacerbated chronic medical illnesses enough to require emergency care but not to cause proximate mortality.

And if you combine masks, vaccines and ventilation you could get very low infection rates indeed during the delta wave :
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamane ... le/2794964
All mechanically ventilated classrooms had MERV-13 (minimum efficiency reporting values) filter upgrades and settings maximized to allow for increased fresh air and a minimum of 2 to 4 air circulations per hour. Non–mechanically ventilated classrooms had windows open when outdoor temperatures allowed and commercial-grade HEPA (high-efficiency particulate absorbing) filters placed within the rooms....
COVID-19 vaccination was mandated as of September 2, 2021, allowing for religious or medical exemption....Vaccination rates for BU faculty, staff, and students respectively were 98.5%, 93.5%, and 98.7%. Masking was mandatory during in-person instruction, but social distancing was not enforced. We analyzed SARS-CoV-2 transmission beginning September 1 to December 1, 2021, which was just prior to the end of term and the beginning of finals. During this time there were more than 140 000 in-person class meetings. Class sizes ranged from 2 to over 400 individuals (mean class size, 31 students)....
In total more than 600 000 SARS-CoV-2 PCR tests were conducted; of these approximately 896 (0.1%) of these tests showed detectable SARS-CoV-2. The 7-day rolling mean average ranged between 4 and 27 daily cases for most of the semester with a dramatic increase the last week of November... Of more than 140 000 in-person class events and a total student population of 33 000 between graduate and undergraduate students, only 9 instances of potential in-class transmission were identified, accounting for 0.0045% of all classroom meetings.


Meanwhile the Telegraph got terribly excited about the persistence of excess mortality in England in the last year, claiming it was some kind of persistent effect from lockdown per se. Stuart McDonald of the Covid-19 Actuaries group dismisses that :
https://twitter.com/ActuaryByDay/status ... 1637472256
So what are the underlying causes? I think three main factors:
1. elevated cardiovascular risks after covid infection
2. current delays for urgent treatment in the NHS
3. missed and delayed diagnoses early in the pandemic


The ever-excellent John Burn-Murdoch of the FT links it directly to the ongoing collapse of A&E care :
https://www.ft.com/content/f36c5daa-9c1 ... b26508b9d2
Between July and December 2021, England recorded 24,000 more deaths than in a typical year, but only two-thirds of these could be attributed to Covid. And this year, less than half of the 10,000 excess deaths accrued since May were Covid-related. In total, there have been just over 12,000 additional non-Covid deaths across the two periods....
A 2022 British Medical Journal study found that the risk of death in the month following A&E attendance was 16 per cent higher for those who waited over 12 hours than those seen within four. By combining this with data first reported in the Independent on the long waiting times currently seen in NHS emergency departments, it is possible to estimate how many of the extra deaths may be the result of the A&E crisis


His Twitter thread goes into more detail - for instance Iberia has seen excess mortality, but it's probably related to their heatwave :
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status ... 2172873728


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