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[stewamax]

... I came across some ancient spaghetti and some macaroni. Not a lot, but it's there. Also a bag or two of long grain rice. I don't think that is suitable for rice pudding. I didn't check the sell-by dates.

You should only be concerned about pasta that is so old that:
- it doesn't have a sell-by date printed
or
- the sell-by date is in Roman numerals

[UncleEbenezer]

... I came across some ancient spaghetti and some macaroni. Not a lot, but it's there. Also a bag or two of long grain rice. I don't think that is suitable for rice pudding. I didn't check the sell-by dates.

You should only be concerned about pasta that is so old that:
- it doesn't have a sell-by date printed
or
- the sell-by date is in Roman numerals

Pasta comes in plastic packaging. If it's too old, the packaging will have turned brittle and be falling apart.

I get through lots and lots of pasta and rice - always as a base to something. Delicious.

[PinkDalek]

my estimate is of course a guess , as i expect is yours , even if you are a medic ( i dont know) .

DrFfybes gave some of his background over at DAK here:

viewtopic.php?p=290129#p290129

Including:

I said this many years ago on TMF but it bears repeating - I am not a clinician. I started out as a Clinical Biochemist in the 1980s, went into Molecular side of thing and did a M.Phil in bacterial genetics, virulence, antibiotic resistance, and did some epidemiology work in the 1990s before taking the money and moving into GM crops. I spent a lot of time working in containment labs when MRSA and Vancomycin resistant enterococci were becoming prevalent (actually MRSA was a concern that lead to us looking at VRE as a potential issue). I've looked at lateral gene transfer between bacteria and how commensal infections can become reservoirs for antibiotic resistance and pass it on to more virulent infections by horizontal gene transfer or via bacteriophages (effectively a virus that infects a bacterium). ...

[scotia]

Long grain rice is no good for Rice Pudding, you need short grain rice. Should you or your parents end up self-isolating, one thing that will while away the time is to cut all the grains in half.

I think both of us (Scotia and TJH) are long past the need to care for parents (although mine made it to 95)

[SalvorHardin]

Rice is an excellent food. Lasts for ages if well packaged. I typically have at least 30 packets of Uncle Ben's Rice in the house. Plus assorted tins of curry, chilli, beef stew, Irish stew, stewed steak, minced beef, corned beef, spam and haggis. One packet and one tin is enough to feed one person for one day. The rice lasts for years and comes in plastic packets.

Tinned foods last for ages. The dates on tins should be treated as a guideline for some years afterwards, unless the contents are acidic (as this can eat away at the tin's protective lining) or the can is dented (check cans before you buy them). Tins have been found in shipwrecks and over a century later the food inside them was perfectly edible. These modern ring-pull tins can be a menace, a few times the ring pull has snapped and hit me when I'm pulling on it (using Lakeland's Magipull opener, wearing glasses for protection).

My eating and food storage habits were ingrained in me by my parents, who were in primary school for much of the Second World War. Now that was a time when there was real rationing. Even nowadays they consider throwing food away to be a cardinal sin. If you didn't have the coupons you didn't get what you wanted, regardless of how much money you had, unless you used the black market.

Many people today have food habits where they live from day to day, in some cases mostly eating takeaways (often delivered) and in resturants. The idea of keeping enough food at home for several weeks is alien to them. Shaftesbury, the Central London property company, has remarked that many of its residential tenants never use the cooker. When the tenancy ends and they send in a team to clean the flat, they often find that the operating instructions are still in the oven.

I typically keep a month's supply of toilet paper. Lots of soap too. When the Somerset Levels flooded in 2013-14, close to where I live, some people were cut off for as long as ten weeks. Whilst they were supplied by boat, most others in the area who were stuck for a couple of weeks didn't need to resupply because they had decent stocks.

[Itsallaguess]

Interesting snippet on the BBC live-feed this morning, related to the experiences of one of the first people in Scotland to contract the Coronavirus -

One of the first people in Scotland to contract Covid-19 has told the BBC about his recovery from the disease. The man, in his 50s, was diagnosed almost two weeks ago following a trip to Italy. He returned home on 25 February, a Tuesday.

"I felt no symptoms. I was completely fine and went to work on the Wednesday and Thursday. Later on the Thursday evening, I started to feel a bit of a flu coming on. I had a mild fever, I felt shivery - but the biggest symptom was aches and pains, particularly in my legs.

"I was feverish. That continued through Thursday night and I didn't sleep too well."

On 1 March, he was diagnosed and hospitalised. But from this point on, he said his symptoms did not develop any further.

"By the time I went to hospital, I was feeling fine. The mild flu symptoms quickly dissipated, I had no leg pain, no fever, no cough and no shortness of breath."

He said he wanted to tell his story to the BBC so that people did not panic about exposure to the disease.

The full story can be read here -

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-51876080

I personally don't think we're seeing enough of this type of information, and it would be helpful to see more examples of it...

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

[redsturgeon]

Thanks to my nearest Asian food shop I am now stocked with rice for the foreseeable future.

I eat rice several times a week and usually buy in bulk. I got low on rice last week and after finding no stock in my local supermarket, tried the four other supermarkets in my city, zero dried rice stocks!

I drove over to my usual Asian food supplier (ten miles away) and found enough rice, beans and flours of all types to feed an army. I bought a 10kg sack of rice, some chapatti flour and dried pulses and am now well stocked up for the next couple of months.

John

[Itsallaguess]

After finishing my weekly 'big shop' earlier today, I'm firmly of the conclusion that absolutely none of us are carrying out our 'normal' shops at the moment, and the level of bulk-buying is now simply one of degree at this current time...

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

[jackdaww]

One of the first people in Scotland to contract Covid-19 has told the BBC about his recovery from the disease. The man, in his 50s, was diagnosed almost two weeks ago following a trip to Italy. He returned home on 25 February, a Tuesday.

"I felt no symptoms. I was completely fine and went to work on the Wednesday and Thursday. Later on the Thursday evening, I started to feel a bit of a flu coming on. I had a mild fever, I felt shivery - but the biggest symptom was aches and pains, particularly in my legs.

"I was feverish. That continued through Thursday night and I didn't sleep too well."

"By the time I went to hospital, I was feeling fine. The mild flu symptoms quickly dissipated, I had no leg pain, no fever, no cough and no shortness of breath."

He said he wanted to tell his story to the BBC so that people did not panic about exposure to the disease.[/i]

I personally don't think we're seeing enough of this type of information, and it would be helpful to see more examples of it...

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

=======================

agreed , most will recover , and their stories would be instructive.

[UncleEbenezer]

After finishing my weekly 'big shop' earlier today, I'm firmly of the conclusion that absolutely none of us are carrying out our 'normal' shops at the moment, and the level of bulk-buying is now simply one of degree at this current time...

Not true. Not all of us have the space to store vast quantities.

And as for tinned food, No Thanks. Except tinned tomatoes as a minority ingredient in many dishes.

[robbelg]

According to John Hopkins University out of nearly 148K cases almost 72K have recovered.

Rob

[XFool]

Yes, though I haven't heard anyone say what percentage of the population needs to get it before we achieve herd immunity. I would have thought it's a fairly high percentage.

I thought I heard a figure of 60%. Yes:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/13/herd-immunity-will-the-uks-coronavirus-strategy-work

Since younger people are less vulnerable to the effect of the virus, it seems the rational policy is to give it to as many children as possible to protect us oldies!

But only if "us oldies" can be isolated from the children and any intermediaries, such as parents?

I hear the government is leading from behind this morning, having gone along with what several organisations have already done by suggesting they will pass legislation to ban large gatherings next week. I'm sure some wit could find a Dad's Army clip which illustrates this rear facing leadership quality.

Arb.

I am no supporter of this government (obviously!) but believe they are being guided by the science etc. That's good enough for me for now. As usual all the armchair pundits, plus some of the media, believe they know better. Nothing new there.

Perhaps when it is all over we will be able to assess if the UK approach was the best one. But it strikes me that in many ways this is inevitably a rearguard action.

To me, many are still thinking in terms of 'stopping it', rather than understanding the UK's approach is to "flatten the curve" of it's (inevitable?) development so that we, the NHS and the economy are not faced with a one time 'nuclear viral bomb' going off.

[XFool]

...Being explained at this very moment in non studio, phone-in version of 'Any Questions?' R4.

[DrFfybes]

================================

does that mean , as i think it does, that most of the population has to get infected and then , those who survive are ok ?

there IS a way to stop it , and that is to shut down ALL activity COMPLETELY for two months .

There you go, I've corrected that for you.

Paul

==================

i have highlighted your correction for clarity .

my estimate is of course a guess , as i expect is yours , even if you are a medic ( i dont know) .

my further guess is we might be in limbo for 6-12 months without shutdown .

i prefer the shutdown approach , and am happy to pay via taxation to support people and business's for the duration.

Ooh - hadn't thought about editing quoted text (obvious in hindsight though).

I'd read the review of the 1918/19 Spanich flu epidemic posted elsewhere which looked at deaths and death rates compared to how soon and for how long isolation measures werre put in place. From their figures it seems a short term shutdown slows things, but if the restrictions were lifted after month another spike in cases resulted, so to completely break hte cycle it would need to be longer, and obviously any moevement presents some risk unless people are cured.

I was very surprised to see their evidence that total "Excess Deaths" seemed to be reduced by a lockdown, I would have expected susceptible people to still die. Perhaps there was better care available for individuals by spreading the peak through isolation, or another thought is that surviivors were immune, so the ones on lockdown for longer benefitted from Herd Immunity once they were back out.

One major difference between then and now is population flux and density. Sure they had railways, and the study was on the largest cities, but the US population a century ago was 105 million, twice ours over a much wider area. Personal transport is more widespread now, more people drive up the M5 each day than would have taken the train from New York each week back then.

Paul

[redsturgeon]

UK deaths pretty much doubled today...not good.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-51886497

John

[UncleEbenezer]

I am no supporter of this government (obviously!) but believe they are being guided by the science etc. That's good enough for me for now. As usual all the armchair pundits, plus some of the media, believe they know better. Nothing new there.

I think I'd want to know more about the government's advisors before being so sanguine. The tendency to appoint yes-men who will do their masters' bidding seems to get ever more flagrant. The Liar was a master of it, and now Stuttley seems to be taking it to a new level: an obvious recent case was the change of chancellor; other obvious cases include the sacking of Claire O'Neill, and of course the Big One - the Stalinist purge of the party's moderates back in the autumn.

[Leothebear]

Glimmer of hope:

"Dutch scientists 'find antibody'

Anna Holligan

BBC News The Hague correspondent

A group of Dutch scientists believe they’ve found an antibody that could help to detect and prevent the coronavirus from being able to infect people.

It hasn’t been tested on humans - a process that will take months.

The researchers at the Erasmus Medical Centre and Utrecht University describe their discovery as an antibody to Sars2, the coronavirus causing the current pandemic (Covid-19).

The scientists were already working on an antibody for Sars1 and when the new coronavirus broke out, they said they had found that the same antibodies cross-reacted and blocked the infection.

Their findings are still being reviewed and the antibody is yet to be rigorously tested.

The researchers are hoping to convince a pharmaceutical company to support its mass production as a medicine which they believe would detect and prevent the spread of the virus.

A separate Covid-19 vaccine could take years to develop - by which point the virus may have disappeared.

[Itsallaguess]

Northern Ireland schools will shut for 16 weeks -

When schools shut in Northern Ireland over coronavirus it will be for at least 16 weeks, Arlene Foster has said.

The first minister was speaking after a meeting between senior ministers from the NI Executive and Irish government.

Health officials have confirmed five new positive cases, bringing the total number in Northern Ireland to 34.

Deputy First Minister Michelle O'Neill repeated her call for NI schools to shut immediately, in line with the Republic of Ireland.

But the taoiseach (Irish PM) said the main differences between the governments were over timing.

Leo Varadkar said the Northern Ireland Executive and Irish government shared the same objective in slowing the advance of coronavirus.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-51881805

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

[zico]

I am no supporter of this government (obviously!) but believe they are being guided by the science etc. That's good enough for me for now. As usual all the armchair pundits, plus some of the media, believe they know better. Nothing new there.

I think I'd want to know more about the government's advisors before being so sanguine. The tendency to appoint yes-men who will do their masters' bidding seems to get ever more flagrant. The Liar was a master of it, and now Stuttley seems to be taking it to a new level: an obvious recent case was the change of chancellor; other obvious cases include the sacking of Claire O'Neill, and of course the Big One - the Stalinist purge of the party's moderates back in the autumn.

I think in this case we simply have to trust that our government is doing all it possibly can to reduce the scale of this epidemic - and I do trust the scientists when they say they are aiming to save as many lives as possible.
It's becoming very clear to me that this outbreak is going to be a lot worse than what is currently being stated in public, and understandably, a responsible government needs to gradually let the truth emerge in a controlled way to avoid pointless panic.

I hope I'm being overly pessimistic, but I've done some basic modelling and on the current publicly stated plan to manage a summer peak in 2020 lasting around 16 weeks, it looks very bad no matter how much you tweak the assumptions (even if you assume that 100% of over 60s could be prevented from getting the virus). Basically my modelling predicts the vast majority of people who will need intensive care in hospital won't be able to get it, and so the number of deaths will be much higher than what's currently in the public domain.

I won't show my modelling assumptions, mainly because I don't want to show anything that might be convincing enough to be shared more widely, because the general public just isn't yet ready for it. But most people on this site are pretty rational and logical so wanted to put this out there.
My modelling assumes the government is aiming to flatten the peak over 16 weeks in summer, which is what they stated in public on Thursday.

However,there is possible good news.

If you assume the real plan for the UK is to flatten the peak over 52 weeks, then my model results suddenly look a whole lot better. If I was running the show, within the next 7-10 days I'd be putting the UK into complete lockdown, similar to what most other countries have already done, and I'd do it for at least 6 months initially (yes, months, not weeks). By starting with mild measures (as our government has done), encouraging people to decide for themselves to cancel events, wash hands more etc, letting people get used to this regime and appreciating for themselves the seriousness of it all, and only then moving to lockdown, there may well be a much better chance of sustained compliance among the UK population which will slow the spread of the coronavirus to allow us to mitigate the worst effects. There's even an outside chance, we may even be able to prevent it spreading at all if enough people are really serious about complying with the measures. Slowing/stopping the spread in this way would also increase the probability of a vaccine being available for a significant proportion of the population.

Good quote I heard about this - " Last time there was a national emergency, we asked our people to go to war. For this national emergency, we're asking them to stay at home".

Our scientists (and government) may have got their approach absolutely right. Let's hope so.

[Itsallaguess]

After finishing my weekly 'big shop' earlier today, I'm firmly of the conclusion that absolutely none of us are carrying out our 'normal' shops at the moment, and the level of bulk-buying is now simply one of degree at this current time...

Not true. Not all of us have the space to store vast quantities.

And as for tinned food, No Thanks. Except tinned tomatoes as a minority ingredient in many dishes.

That's fair enough UE, and I was of course only speaking anecdotally, but it certainly looked like every single basket and trolley I saw this morning contained a larger than usual number of long-shelf-life goods,, and often by quite some margin...

I'm really not sure if I could ever match your aversion to tinned goods, especially if we are likely to head towards some sort of lock-down in the nesr future, but I do admire your efforts.

Cheers,

Itsallaguess