July 19th

[Julian]

The escape from this, if media rumours are to be believed, is a plan to exempt the fully vaccinated from self-isolation when contact traced, I think instead recommending daily testing for some number of days (lateral flow? PCR? No idea).

Daily test numbers are about a million. At some point you will run out of tests so you can't test instead of isolate. I suspect the capacity to trace will be overwhelmed at some lower level. In any case somewhere below 100,000 cases a day you reach a point where you either lock down or do nothing and let covid spread unconstrained.

Even if you could trace with 100,000 cases a day the exposed population will be so large there is little difference between "trace and isolate" and "lockdown".

With lateral flow at-home tests I would have thought that you can easily test enough. I had a 7-pack given to me when I had my second jab. I must admit that I've never used mine but I've just looked at the unopened box and it has a 2 year shelf life. I know a lot of people who have a pack at home because they were approached in the street and given one. You can also just walk into many chemists and corner stores and pick them up for free, the NHS even has a collection point checker here - https://maps.test-and-trace.nhs.uk/ . It shows 18 locations within about a mile of me where I can simply walk in and pick up a pack of 7 tests (in theory - assuming they all have stock). That's why I said I wasn't sure if they would go lateral flow or PCR if they do this. The problem with lateral flow is reduced accuracy especially on false negatives but the issues with PCR are as you mention so my suspicion is that if self-isolation for the contact-traced is replaced by daily testing advice for maybe 7 days after notification of exposure then it will be via home-administered lateral flow tests. (I use the word "advice" since if it is home lateral flow testing that is desired I can't see how the government can mandate it with any hope of enforcing such a mandate.)

On tracing a lot of people at least in my circle do respond to calls to self-isolate from the NHS tracing app so there is no human element to overload there but maybe my network of friends is unrepresentative. I certainly also know lots of people who don't use the tracing app, or rather have it installed but with the contact tracing feature disabled so they only use it for venue check-ins (that is what I do).

- Julian

[pje16]

I get tested once a month as part of an ONS survey
After my 2nd jab my blood now shows as "positive for antibodies" (which is very reassuring) - it didn't after the first jab
The monthly tests go on until next April so I will know when the antibodies I have stop working (I assume - having no medical knowledge)

[XFool]

With lateral flow at-home tests I would have thought that you can easily test enough. I had a 7-pack given to me when I had my second jab. I must admit that I've never used mine but I've just looked at the unopened box and it has a 2 year shelf life. I know a lot of people who have a pack at home because they were approached in the street and given one. You can also just walk into many chemists and corner stores and pick them up for free, the NHS even has a collection point checker here - https://maps.test-and-trace.nhs.uk/ . It shows 18 locations within about a mile of me where I can simply walk in and pick up a pack of 7 tests (in theory - assuming they all have stock).

"We can't find any results within 30 miles of your location." - London

[Julian]

With lateral flow at-home tests I would have thought that you can easily test enough. I had a 7-pack given to me when I had my second jab. I must admit that I've never used mine but I've just looked at the unopened box and it has a 2 year shelf life. I know a lot of people who have a pack at home because they were approached in the street and given one. You can also just walk into many chemists and corner stores and pick them up for free, the NHS even has a collection point checker here - https://maps.test-and-trace.nhs.uk/ . It shows 18 locations within about a mile of me where I can simply walk in and pick up a pack of 7 tests (in theory - assuming they all have stock).

"We can't find any results within 30 miles of your location." - London

Wow! I’m in London too - an outer suburb. That’s radically different to my experience, so much so that I wonder if it was a systems glitch. As well as a good selection of local corner shops I see both of the Boots branches within a mile of me plus many independent chemists plus the pharmacies embedded in my local large Tesco and in my local large Sainsbury’s all come up as results on my search.

- Julian

[redsturgeon]

With lateral flow at-home tests I would have thought that you can easily test enough. I had a 7-pack given to me when I had my second jab. I must admit that I've never used mine but I've just looked at the unopened box and it has a 2 year shelf life. I know a lot of people who have a pack at home because they were approached in the street and given one. You can also just walk into many chemists and corner stores and pick them up for free, the NHS even has a collection point checker here - https://maps.test-and-trace.nhs.uk/ . It shows 18 locations within about a mile of me where I can simply walk in and pick up a pack of 7 tests (in theory - assuming they all have stock).

"We can't find any results within 30 miles of your location." - London

Wow! I’m in London too - an outer suburb. That’s radically different to my experience, so much so that I wonder if it was a systems glitch. As well as a good selection of local corner shops I see both of the Boots branches within a mile of me plus many independent chemists plus the pharmacies embedded in my local large Tesco and in my local large Sainsbury’s all come up as results on my search.

- Julian

It must be a glitch, I get half a dozen locations with two miles of me in a small city. Most pharmacies will have supplies.

John

[Gersemi]

With lateral flow at-home tests I would have thought that you can easily test enough. I had a 7-pack given to me when I had my second jab. I must admit that I've never used mine but I've just looked at the unopened box and it has a 2 year shelf life. I know a lot of people who have a pack at home because they were approached in the street and given one. You can also just walk into many chemists and corner stores and pick them up for free, the NHS even has a collection point checker here - https://maps.test-and-trace.nhs.uk/ . It shows 18 locations within about a mile of me where I can simply walk in and pick up a pack of 7 tests (in theory - assuming they all have stock). That's why I said I wasn't sure if they would go lateral flow or PCR if they do this. The problem with lateral flow is reduced accuracy especially on false negatives but the issues with PCR are as you mention so my suspicion is that if self-isolation for the contact-traced is replaced by daily testing advice for maybe 7 days after notification of exposure then it will be via home-administered lateral flow tests. (I use the word "advice" since if it is home lateral flow testing that is desired I can't see how the government can mandate it with any hope of enforcing such a mandate.)

On tracing a lot of people at least in my circle do respond to calls to self-isolate from the NHS tracing app so there is no human element to overload there but maybe my network of friends is unrepresentative. I certainly also know lots of people who don't use the tracing app, or rather have it installed but with the contact tracing feature disabled so they only use it for venue check-ins (that is what I do).

- Julian

If you want these the easiest thing to do is order them on-line. In my experience they arrive the next day.

[XFool]

"We can't find any results within 30 miles of your location." - London

Wow! I’m in London too - an outer suburb. That’s radically different to my experience, so much so that I wonder if it was a systems glitch.

It must be a glitch, I get half a dozen locations with two miles of me in a small city. Most pharmacies will have supplies.

OK. I have reentered and this time clicked on the address after the postcode and it has given me a list of sites.

[Lootman]

I will be using my "personal judgement" from 19th July.

Yes, we will all be using our personal biases as from July 19th, just like we all have been doing before July 19th.

For all the thousands of posts here, and all the ups and downs of the last 18 months, the one abiding perception I have come away with is this:

Those who are of an anxious and pessimistic disposition have always argued for more restrictions. Those with a more relaxed and optimistic disposition have argued for fewer.

I am not sure that anyone here has changed their mind about any aspect of Covid in all this time, and all these thousands of posts. But I think a number of us are much clearer about the personalities and natures of other Lemons based on their views on the matter.

[pje16]

If you have common sense, then your own judgement is fine
there has been plenty of footage on TV of those who have little or none
but I wouldn't be hugging anyone just yet

[Lootman]

One thing I am looking forward to from July 19th is how various businesses and entities respond to the removal of restrictions.

It has long been my view that businesses and institutions have been using Covid as cover and a pretext for introducing changes that they wanted to anyway. Examples:

1) Banks that wish to further deter customers from visiting physical branches in person

2) Hotels that want to provide fewer services but still charge the same or more for rooms

3) Pubs that make you book tables in advance and order from QR codes

4) My local council who basically have stopped any local citizen from physically visiting their offices to transact business or complain about anything.

And so on. Once there is no legal basis for all these restrictions, we shall see their true colours. Will they revert to previous levels of service? Or will they find some way of keeping the changes that they introduced supposedly only because of Covid?

[XFool]

I will be using my "personal judgement" from 19th July.

Yes, we will all be using our personal biases as from July 19th, just like we all have been doing before July 19th.

For all the thousands of posts here, and all the ups and downs of the last 18 months, the one abiding perception I have come away with is this:

Those who are of an anxious and pessimistic disposition have always argued for more restrictions. Those with a more relaxed and optimistic disposition have argued for fewer.

I am not sure that anyone here has changed their mind about any aspect of Covid in all this time, and all these thousands of posts. But I think a number of us are much clearer about the personalities and natures of other Lemons based on their views on the matter.

I have had one of my "personal biases" increasingly confirmed. That (roughly) there are two kinds of people in the world:

Those who try to adjust their thinking by attempting to understand what reality is telling them

Those who seek to project their ideologically led thinking onto the world (and on to others!)

[XFool]

One thing I am looking forward to from July 19th is how various businesses and entities respond to the removal of restrictions.

It has long been my view that businesses and institutions have been using Covid as cover and a pretext for introducing changes that they wanted to anyway. Examples:

4) My local council who basically have stopped any local citizen from physically visiting their offices to transact business or complain about anything.

Sounds like your council could be exactly the same as my (Conservative) council.

[XFool]

One thing I am looking forward to from July 19th is how various businesses and entities respond to the removal of restrictions.

It has long been my view that businesses and institutions have been using Covid as cover and a pretext for introducing changes that they wanted to anyway.

I don't know about "pretext" but certainly the pandemic has speeded up, is ushering in, changes in many areas:

Manchester University sparks backlash with plan to keep lectures online

The Guardian

More than 3,000 students sign petition against keeping lecture halls vacant with no reduction in tuition fees

[Mike4]

Well, I will be using my "personal judgement" from 19th July.

It will of course largely be based on my appraisal of the government's track record in dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK.
(I still don't eat beef)

And I thought I was the only one!

Have to say though, I've recently started again occasionally, given the incubation period is much the same as my life expectancy.

[zico]

For all the thousands of posts here, and all the ups and downs of the last 18 months, the one abiding perception I have come away with is this:

Those who are of an anxious and pessimistic disposition have always argued for more restrictions. Those with a more relaxed and optimistic disposition have argued for fewer.

I am not sure that anyone here has changed their mind about any aspect of Covid in all this time, and all these thousands of posts. But I think a number of us are much clearer about the personalities and natures of other Lemons based on their views on the matter.

Considering that none of us has ever previously lived through a pandemic, I'd be genuinely astonished if nobody here has changed their mind about any aspect of Covid.

We've learned so much about Covid since last January - here's just a short list of the more major developments.

Spread of Covid can be controlled and it's not inevitable that everyone gets it in the end.
Populations are much more willing to accept long-lasting restrictions to minimise pandemics than politicians gave them credit for.
Hand washing and disinfecting surfaces is a far less important factor than avoiding close contacts, particularly indoors.
Covid stays airborne for hours, so can be caught without being close to an infected person.
Herd immunity hasn't been reached at 20% infection rates, as was posited by many. (It's back to 70% as per original scientific thinking)
Sweden's different approach didn't work.
Early lockdowns have saved lives, reduced pressure on health services, been good for economies and resulting in less time under restrictions.
Second waves of Covid haven't been smaller than the first waves - which was unthinkable back in March 2020.
Covid didn't mutate to become much milder and just like flu (even if the "flu" comparison is back on the menu).
Vaccines were developed faster than expected, and were much more effective than scientists hoped for.

Back in January 2020, if anyone could have confidently predicted all the above, they'd be a genius and would also have made a fortune on the stock market.

[Mike4]

Considering that none of us has ever previously lived through a pandemic, I'd be genuinely astonished if nobody here has changed their mind about any aspect of Covid.

We've learned so much about Covid since last January - here's just a short list of the more major developments.

Spread of Covid can be controlled and it's not inevitable that everyone gets it in the end.
Populations are much more willing to accept long-lasting restrictions to minimise pandemics than politicians gave them credit for.
Hand washing and disinfecting surfaces is a far less important factor than avoiding close contacts, particularly indoors.
Covid stays airborne for hours, so can be caught without being close to an infected person.
Herd immunity hasn't been reached at 20% infection rates, as was posited by many. (It's back to 70% as per original scientific thinking)
Sweden's different approach didn't work.
Early lockdowns have saved lives, reduced pressure on health services, been good for economies and resulting in less time under restrictions.
Second waves of Covid haven't been smaller than the first waves - which was unthinkable back in March 2020.
Covid didn't mutate to become much milder and just like flu (even if the "flu" comparison is back on the menu).
Vaccines were developed faster than expected, and were much more effective than scientists hoped for.

Back in January 2020, if anyone could have confidently predicted all the above, they'd be a genius and would also have made a fortune on the stock market.

How, exactly?

I'm curious because back in March 2020 I was expecting the mother of all stock market crashes to unfold so I stayed holding quite a bit of cash. I wasn't confident or knowledgable to take any short positions, and a good thing too as it turns out (so far).

[Lootman]

I will be using my "personal judgement" from 19th July.

Yes, we will all be using our personal biases as from July 19th, just like we all have been doing before July 19th.

For all the thousands of posts here, and all the ups and downs of the last 18 months, the one abiding perception I have come away with is this:

Those who are of an anxious and pessimistic disposition have always argued for more restrictions. Those with a more relaxed and optimistic disposition have argued for fewer.

I am not sure that anyone here has changed their mind about any aspect of Covid in all this time, and all these thousands of posts. But I think a number of us are much clearer about the personalities and natures of other Lemons based on their views on the matter.

I have had one of my "personal biases" increasingly confirmed. That (roughly) there are two kinds of people in the world:

Those who try to adjust their thinking by attempting to understand what reality is telling them

Those who seek to project their ideologically led thinking onto the world (and on to others!)

There may well be those two types. The problem is that everyone thinks that they personally are in the former group, even when they are not. Which in turn is just a variation on the common observation that everyone thinks they are right.

But my real point was that there is a subjective element to this. Two people faced with the same set of facts may still infer different conclusions simply because of what is personally important to them. So for example someone with an anxiety disorder such as a hypochondria will react differently to a Covid fact than someone who is comfortable with risk.

[UncleEbenezer]

Considering that none of us has ever previously lived through a pandemic, I'd be genuinely astonished if nobody here has changed their mind about any aspect of Covid.

We've learned so much about Covid since last January - here's just a short list of the more major developments.

Spread of Covid can be controlled and it's not inevitable that everyone gets it in the end.
On the contrary, the underlying maths are well-known. The numbers (infectiousness) clearly weren't, but different scenarios were modelled.

Populations are much more willing to accept long-lasting restrictions to minimise pandemics than politicians gave them credit for.
That's what fear does. Do you suppose Brits would've accepted restrictions in January 2020?

Hand washing and disinfecting surfaces is a far less important factor than avoiding close contacts, particularly indoors.
I could certainly have told you that.

Covid stays airborne for hours, so can be caught without being close to an infected person.
I've spent a lifetime wishing and sometimes arguing for better ventilation, and indeed sometimes missing out in career and social life on things that take me to stuffy places, not least because I've always hated catching a cold or flu.

Herd immunity hasn't been reached at 20% infection rates, as was posited by many. (It's back to 70% as per original scientific thinking)
You what? Herd Immunity is about reaching a steady state.

Sweden's different approach didn't work.
They're still doing much better than us.

Early lockdowns have saved lives, reduced pressure on health services, been good for economies and resulting in less time under restrictions.
Probably true of China's lockdown in Wuhan.

Second waves of Covid haven't been smaller than the first waves - which was unthinkable back in March 2020.
I think that was anticipated by people drawing lessons from the waves of Spanish Flu. Some of them here.

Covid didn't mutate to become much milder and just like flu (even if the "flu" comparison is back on the menu).
Who the **** said it would mutate to become milder? What will happen is, the novelty wears off and it becomes effectively a regular cold. Vaccination appears to have hastened that outcome compared to when, for example, the novel-to-them common cold imported by European settlers devastated the Wampanoag peoples.

Vaccines were developed faster than expected, and were much more effective than scientists hoped for.
Indeed, a sea-change in political and regulatory attitudes. But the vaccines are currently novel to the virus. A steady-state outcome remains a matter for speculation.

Back in January 2020, if anyone could have confidently predicted all the above, they'd be a genius and would also have made a fortune on the stock market.

That particular genius has been in evidence at SMT.

How, exactly?

I'm curious because back in March 2020 I was expecting the mother of all stock market crashes to unfold so I stayed holding quite a bit of cash. I wasn't confident or knowledgable to take any short positions, and a good thing too as it turns out (so far).

Governments have learned - particularly since 2009 - that money-printing cures all economic ills. 2009 printing was the Pork Futures Warehouse: inflation it generated had already happened, which is what generated the financial hole in the first place.

The latest covid-inspired run of money-printing almost marks the centenary of the last time a major economy (Germany) achieved success with a similar strategy. History has yet to tell us how long it'll last this time.

[88V8]

We've learned so much about Covid since last January - here's just a short list of the more major developments:
Spread of Covid can be controlled and it's not inevitable that everyone gets it in the end.
Hand washing and disinfecting surfaces is a far less important factor than avoiding close contacts, particularly indoors.
Covid stays airborne for hours, so can be caught without being close to an infected person.

So my takeaways are that I don't bother with hand sanitiser, except to be polite, I feel safe outdoors and don't mask, I may continue to mask indoors unless ventilation is good.

Come the winter, and I hate to mention it given that summer seems hardly to have begun, ventilation will once again be key but as far as I can see will once more be largely ignored in the messaging, perhaps because the govt has done zippo about improving the ventilation of its own estate.

I expect that some businesses will continue to require masks. The misleadingly named 'nail bars' as an obvious example.

V8

[XFool]

I have had one of my "personal biases" increasingly confirmed. That (roughly) there are two kinds of people in the world:

Those who try to adjust their thinking by attempting to understand what reality is telling them

Those who seek to project their ideologically led thinking onto the world (and on to others!)

There may well be those two types. The problem is that everyone thinks that they personally are in the former group, even when they are not. Which in turn is just a variation on the common observation that everyone thinks they are right.

But my real point was that there is a subjective element to this. Two people faced with the same set of facts may still infer different conclusions simply because of what is personally important to them. So for example someone with an anxiety disorder such as a hypochondria will react differently to a Covid fact than someone who is comfortable with risk.

Sure thing. But my point all along has been, when it comes to real world events, some "conclusions", opinions, views are correct and some are wrong*. Reality itself will generally tend to demonstrate, in the long run, which is which. This is unlike purely political matters, based as they are on competing human material issues or human values, were there is no right or wrong.

Of course, this is an idealised description, many real world issues (e.g. a pandemic) will necessarily involve politics and some political issues will be related to events in the real world (e.g a pandemic).


* And I have come to feel that the best guarantee of being wrong in these circumstances is to have a very opinionated, ideologically driven outlook.
Perhaps this itself is an ideological outlook?