The Lemon Fool

Mike4 wrote:EXCEPT.... Israel used mostly Pfizer and UK has used mostly AZ, AIUI, and the data does not distinguish, does it?

Just curious really.

Dr Campbells figures are only for the Pfizer vaccine.

Mike4 wrote:

9873210 wrote:So if protection wanes starting at the date of the second dose we would expect the UK curve to be three months behind the Israel curve. I.e. the UK overall would be the same as Israel in April because almost everybody in the UK received their second dose in April or later. And that's what we see.

Note that I am not saying whether or not the interval matters. I am saying this data does not allow us to say either way.

EXCEPT.... Israel used mostly Pfizer and UK has used mostly AZ, AIUI, and the data does not distinguish, does it?

Just curious really.

Additional confounding factors don't make a case any stronger.

Also, Do you have numbers on which vaccines have been used in the UK? My sources are all silent on that point.

9873210 wrote:
Also, Do you have numbers on which vaccines have been used in the UK? My sources are all silent on that point.

Only the poll results on here:

viewtopic.php?t=28125

Mike4 wrote:

9873210 wrote:
Also, Do you have numbers on which vaccines have been used in the UK? My sources are all silent on that point.

Only the poll results on here:

viewtopic.php?t=28125

The breakdown in Scotland is on this page https://www.travellingtabby.com/scotlan ... s-tracker/

Of total vaccinations, approximately 39% are Pfizer, 58% AstraZeneca and 3% Moderna.

Unfortunately the UK version of the page doesn't have this breakdown https://www.travellingtabby.com/uk-coronavirus-tracker/

Scott.

9873210 wrote:Also, Do you have numbers on which vaccines have been used in the UK? My sources are all silent on that point.

It's a little out of date, but it says here:

https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... -reporting

This safety update report is based on detailed analysis of data up to 14 July 2021. At this date, an estimated 20 million first doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine and 24.7 million first doses of the COVID-19 Vaccine AstraZeneca had been administered, and around 12.1 million and 22.8 million second doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine and COVID-19 Vaccine AstraZeneca respectively. An approximate 1.3 million first doses of the COVID-19 Vaccine Moderna have also now been administered.

Thank you for the replies. Particularly thanks to Stompa for data from the UK and swill453 for the data from Scotland.

Moderna highlighting booster likelihood...

New data announced by Moderna is showing its mRNA COVID-19 vaccine remains significantly effective after six months. However, the company does note that a possible reduction in efficacy in the face of the new Delta variant indicates a likely need for third dose boosters later in 2021.

Also.. The company has also announced full enrolment for Phase 1 trialling of its next generation mRNA COVID-19 vaccine. This new version of the vaccine is designed to target different parts of the coronavirus spike protein in the hope of getting ahead of any new viral variants. This new vaccine formulation is also reportedly stable at warmer temperatures than its previous candidate, meaning it could be stored safely in refrigerators.

And vaccines for those aged 6 months up are being trialled.

https://investors.modernatx.com/news-re ... -financial

Some say this is the drugs companies trying to generate revenue.
The WHO would prefer that the third world has priority over first world topups.
What will BoJo decide.....

V8

88V8 wrote:Moderna highlighting booster likelihood...

New data announced by Moderna is showing its mRNA COVID-19 vaccine remains significantly effective after six months. However, the company does note that a possible reduction in efficacy in the face of the new Delta variant indicates a likely need for third dose boosters later in 2021.

Also.. The company has also announced full enrolment for Phase 1 trialling of its next generation mRNA COVID-19 vaccine. This new version of the vaccine is designed to target different parts of the coronavirus spike protein in the hope of getting ahead of any new viral variants. This new vaccine formulation is also reportedly stable at warmer temperatures than its previous candidate, meaning it could be stored safely in refrigerators.

And vaccines for those aged 6 months up are being trialled.

https://investors.modernatx.com/news-re ... -financial

Some say this is the drugs companies trying to generate revenue.
The WHO would prefer that the third world has priority over first world topups.
What will BoJo decide.....

V8

For the AZ vaccine Pascal Soriot, CEO of AstraZeneca, is saying that they are not sure yet if boosters will be needed because of potentially more durable T-Cell responses vs some of the other vaccines ...

“There are two dimensions to this immunity — antibodies [which] decline over time, but the second, very important dimension of vaccination is the so-called T-cells. They tend to protect people against severe disease, but they also provide durability,” Soriot explained.

“With the technology we use, we have very high production of T-cells. We’re hoping we can have a durable vaccine that protects for a long period of time. So whether we will need a third booster or not is not clear yet, only time will tell.”

[ Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/29/astraze ... ssary.html ]

- Julian

88V8 wrote:The WHO would prefer that the third world has priority over first world topups.
What will BoJo decide.....

V8

It is not an either/or decision.

Vaccination in middle, including lower middle, income countries is moving along. Lower middle income countries are about 4 months behind high income countries. Not entirely equitable, but probably far better than you thought. The most important factor for lower middle income countries is to keep the supply up and the cost bounded. Get Novavax approved. Stop dissing AstraZeneca and Janssen. Don't shut down vaccine production when the UK etc. reach 200% coverage.

Where things are not progressing is the Low income countries. These are about 9% of the worlds population. Making significant progress here would be a rounding error in the first world's, or the UK's, or China's, vaccine supply. It won't be a problem of vaccine supply, it's the usual problems of getting somebody to pay, and, in some countries, getting things organized with a barely functioning government. It may not matter how many doses are available if there is a civil war, or if plane loads of vaccine rot at an airport.

So yes there are problems and a moral imperative, but WHO is not describing the world that actually exists.

To less than universal acclaim, it is reported that the US will offer boosters to anyone whose second dose was <8 months ago.

“I’m truly disappointed,” says infectious disease expert Muge Cevik on Twitter. “This decision in not justifiable at all looking at this data. We are going to use up millions of doses to reduce the small risk of mild infections in fully protected people with a tiny risk of hospitalization, while most of the world waits for a first dose.”

The govt view is that “The available data make very clear that protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection begins to decrease over time following the initial doses of vaccination, and in association with the dominance of the Delta variant, we are starting to see evidence of reduced protection against mild and moderate disease. Based on our latest assessment, the current protection against severe disease, hospitalization, and death could diminish in the months ahead, especially among those who are at higher risk or were vaccinated during the earlier phases of the vaccination rollout. For that reason, we conclude that a booster shot will be needed to maximize vaccine-induced protection and prolong its durability.”

The programme is scheduled as from September 20th.
https://newatlas.com/health-wellbeing/coronavirus-vaccine-boosters-all-americans-experts-divided/?utm_source=New+Atlas+Subscribers&utm_campaign=e198c1da07-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2021_08_19_08_09&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_65b67362bd-e198c1da07-92456261

V8

88V8 wrote:To less than universal acclaim, it is reported that the US will offer boosters to anyone whose second dose was <8 months ago.

“I’m truly disappointed,” says infectious disease expert Muge Cevik on Twitter. “This decision in not justifiable at all looking at this data. We are going to use up millions of doses to reduce the small risk of mild infections in fully protected people with a tiny risk of hospitalization, while most of the world waits for a first dose.”

The govt view is that “The available data make very clear that protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection begins to decrease over time following the initial doses of vaccination, and in association with the dominance of the Delta variant, we are starting to see evidence of reduced protection against mild and moderate disease. Based on our latest assessment, the current protection against severe disease, hospitalization, and death could diminish in the months ahead, especially among those who are at higher risk or were vaccinated during the earlier phases of the vaccination rollout. For that reason, we conclude that a booster shot will be needed to maximize vaccine-induced protection and prolong its durability.”

The programme is scheduled as from September 20th.
https://newatlas.com/health-wellbeing/coronavirus-vaccine-boosters-all-americans-experts-divided/?utm_source=New+Atlas+Subscribers&utm_campaign=e198c1da07-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2021_08_19_08_09&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_65b67362bd-e198c1da07-92456261

V8

That should be greater than ( > ) 8 months not less than ( < ) 8 months.

https://newatlas.com/health-wellbeing/coronavirus-vaccine-boosters-all-americans-experts-divided/?utm_source=New+Atlas+Subscribers&utm_campaign=e198c1da07-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2021_08_19_08_09&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_65b67362bd-e198c1da07-92456261

From late September all Americans will be offered a third COVID-19 vaccine booster shot, to be administered at least eight months after a second dose.
.
.
.
The recommendation is for a third shot to be administered no earlier than eight months after a person’s second dose. As with the original vaccine strategy, boosters will be initially prioritized for high-risk populations such as seniors and health care workers.

Over the coming weeks more details will be announced pending recommendations from the CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP). It is not yet clear whether the third booster will be limited to the same brand of vaccine as a person’s initial course, or whether a mix-and-match strategy will be suggested.

The announcement also notes those Americans administered the single-dose Johnson and Johnson COVID-19 vaccine will likely require a booster, and that advice is also expected to be offered over the coming weeks.

ursaminortaur wrote:

88V8 wrote:To less than universal acclaim, it is reported that the US will offer boosters to anyone whose second dose was <8 months ago.

That should be greater than ( > ) 8 months not less than ( < ) 8 months.

Oops yes. all that ink wasted by using the wrong abbreviation

V8

9873210 wrote:

88V8 wrote:The WHO would prefer that the third world has priority over first world topups.
What will BoJo decide.....

V8

It is not an either/or decision.

Vaccination in middle, including lower middle, income countries is moving along. Lower middle income countries are about 4 months behind high income countries. Not entirely equitable, but probably far better than you thought. The most important factor for lower middle income countries is to keep the supply up and the cost bounded. Get Novavax approved. Stop dissing AstraZeneca and Janssen. Don't shut down vaccine production when the UK etc. reach 200% coverage.

Where things are not progressing is the Low income countries. These are about 9% of the worlds population. Making significant progress here would be a rounding error in the first world's, or the UK's, or China's, vaccine supply. It won't be a problem of vaccine supply, it's the usual problems of getting somebody to pay, and, in some countries, getting things organized with a barely functioning government. It may not matter how many doses are available if there is a civil war, or if plane loads of vaccine rot at an airport.

So yes there are problems and a moral imperative, but WHO is not describing the world that actually exists.

It looks like WHO have changed their mind about boosters

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/30/covid-booster-jabs-not-a-luxury-and-protect-the-vulnerable-says-who

A booster jab of Covid-19 vaccine for vulnerable people is not a luxury but a good way to protect them, the World Health Organization has said, as surging infection rates and a pan-European vaccination slowdown produced a “deeply worrying” situation.

“A third dose of vaccine is not a luxury booster taken away from someone who is still waiting for a first jab,” Dr Hans Kluge, the WHO’s regional director for Europe, said on Monday. “It’s basically a way to keep the most vulnerable safe.”

The comments seemed to a contradict a statement by the WHO earlier this month that available data did not suggest a need for booster shots. The body had warned that topping up already fully vaccinated people would only serve to increase vaccine inequality between wealthier and lower-income countries.