jfgw wrote:Consider the current situation in New South Wales; there is a low level of herd immunity and the delta variant (R0 = 5 estimated — possibly much higher as it is Winter over there) is causing a rapid increase in cases.* There is a real risk that we in the UK could find ourselves in a similar position in six months' time, especially as our current immunity may have reduced effectiveness against some new variants.
Interestingly there's "not much daylight" yet between the current NSW and last years VIC cases
I have been expecting that there would be a more obvious accelerated increase due to "delta" but that hasn't happened yet (yesterday's numbers out shortly)
hacked a comparison together in to this to demonstate:
- there's probably a week or so's growth baked in (given that the 'mockdown' thus far includes having most shops open) so it might start to break away soon
What does however seem a change from last year is the demographic composition of those in hospital; it has shifted younger
- possibly because of improvements in protecting the really elderly
- or possibly because of the variant as it seems a trend that's been reported elsewhere in delta outbreaks
From yesterday's press conference (out of 664 currently active cases) there are:
- 63 people in hospital of which 18 are in ICU ( 4 ventilated)
- 25 of them are under 55
- 14 are under 35
(last year ~25% would have been under 55 and I do not remember reports of teens in ICU from them as there have been now)
One silver lining might be that it encourages an increase in uptake of jabs
Apparently the pfizer deliveries to OZ have been brought forward but it's really hard to tell how many are being stuck in arms
- the reported numbers (we're repeatedly told) only include those at govt hubs, which is not GPs and TBH I'm not sure if includes hospitals
There is a bit of latency however because it's up to you to make your appointment.
So it did take me a 5 minute phone call and a week of waiting to get my first jab at our local hospital; second one was booked at the appointment and performed 23 days later.
I could have walked up and got an AZ shot and saved that week (and phone call)
- but there's no-one doing that, literally no-one
- the wife's second shot was at the weekend and in the 20 minutes she was in the Royal Exhibition Building in Melbourne can you guess how many people walked in the AZ walk in queue? (OK yeah it's trick question)
They're trying all sorts of stuff to convince folk to vaccinate:
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/heavy-handed-prime-minister-backs-port-melbourne-pub-s-free-beer-for-jab-promotion-20210709-p58891.html- it's a very strange time indeed
- sd