Re: Coronavirus - Numbers and Statistics

[look]

comparing UK and India

in India, i calculate 110 deaths per million inhabitants.
in UK i calculate 1112 deaths per million inhabitant

if you don1t believe, you read it right... 10 times more deaths per miliion inhabitants in UK!

the numbers i used for calculation:

UK 66650 million inhabitants (year 2019), 74125 deaths
India 1353 million inhabitants (year2018), 146994 deaths


perhaps the zoverdo is causing part of that big difference.

I know what I read.

Now can you define what is the measurement of a Covid death is in the UK and India please, and confirm they are the same definition? If not can you provide the same numbers on an "excess deaths" basis please?

Once that has been done we can move on to see if we can find a reason for the disparity, which may or may not include "zoverdo".

where i wrote xoverdo the correct is ziverdo.

Do you think there could be more deaths in India and they revister them as other diseases? Or do you think that in UK deaths that should be register for other diseases are registered al covid deaths?

I have no desire to study this themes now. I think that even if they are differences, the differences in register are not so big. And given support for that idea is the fact that in far east the economy is a very good shape.

Thinking like you, i could say: show me the proof THAT MY CONCLUSION IS WRONG or deffend the use of ziverdo immediately.

[johnhemming]

I am under the impression that the case numbers are following the hospital admissions. That would not be surprising as their clearly is some form of comparability timing wise. However, we now have the hospital admissions for the end of 2020. Going back from 31/12- 2536, 2861, 2886, 2795, 2572, 2298, 1952, 1792

What I do not see in the figures is an increase in the North (and obviously it has gone down a bit, but the figures are quite erratic normally).

Looking at the regional peaks and percentage of peak in first wave then the current value

East 393 170% 340
London 739 84% 708
Midlands 562 72% 435
NE 464 92% 300
NW 349 71% 209
SE 552 156% 404
SW 220 145% 140
England 2886 93% 2536

[dealtn]

comparing UK and India

in India, i calculate 110 deaths per million inhabitants.
in UK i calculate 1112 deaths per million inhabitant

if you don1t believe, you read it right... 10 times more deaths per miliion inhabitants in UK!

the numbers i used for calculation:

UK 66650 million inhabitants (year 2019), 74125 deaths
India 1353 million inhabitants (year2018), 146994 deaths


perhaps the zoverdo is causing part of that big difference.

I know what I read.

Now can you define what is the measurement of a Covid death is in the UK and India please, and confirm they are the same definition? If not can you provide the same numbers on an "excess deaths" basis please?

Once that has been done we can move on to see if we can find a reason for the disparity, which may or may not include "zoverdo".

Do you think there could be more deaths in India and they revister them as other diseases?

Yes, I strongly suspect exactly that.

I have no desire to study this themes now. I think that even if they are differences, the differences in register are not so big. And given support for that idea is the fact that in far east the economy is a very good shape.

Thinking like you, i could say: show me the proof THAT MY CONCLUSION IS WRONG or deffend the use of ziverdo immediately.

It is not up to me to prove you wrong. You came here making claims, so provide the evidence.

In your initial post you must have had a desire to show this, and now claim no desire to study it.

I have no interest in ziverdo, whatever that is. Until you can show an equivalence in the data between the 2 countries then whatever comes next isn't relevant.

[look]

i hope others will read my post.
If the difference would be 50% your critics would be reasonable, but with a difference of 900% i think critic is useless, not reasonable.
My post, my work is a contribuiton to help, I'm not deffending a thesis in university and don't like to talk like in a bar.
There are two things present, I suppose: personal restrictions and national proud. By national proud is the fact that you don't accept comparisions with India.

The world press now is focusing on UK not India, because in UK it's...

In the twitter of Yardley Yeadon, I read an interesting post of Robin Monnotti. I paste it in other section.

Moderator Message:
You posted it in the wrong "section", it has therefore been deleted from there. You need to repost it in "Polite Discussions".

[dealtn]

i hope others will read my post.
If the difference would be 50% your critics would be reasonable, but with a difference of 900% i think critic is useless, not reasonable.
My post, my work is a contribuiton to help, I'm not deffending a thesis in university and don't like to talk like in a bar.
There are two things present, I suppose: personal restrictions and national proud. By national proud is the fact that you don't accept comparisions with India.

The world press now is focusing on UK not India, because in UK it's...

In the twitter of Yardley Yeadon, I read an interesting post of Robin Monnotti. I paste it in other section.

Moderator Message:
You posted it in the wrong "section", it has therefore been deleted from there. You need to repost it in "Polite Discussions".

It's nothing to do with national pride. You know nothing of me and my opinions of my home country (wherever that is), or India.

It is to do with statistical integrity. All countries are measuring things in different ways, so to make comparisons you need to either demonstrate what is being measured, and how, or look at making things comparable. THEN, you can investigate what might be making the differences, and there are likely to be many.

[johnhemming]

I was thinking about the way infection happens and relative humidity. I was wondering what research people are aware of as to how respiratory droplets evaporate as they will do if the relatively humidity is lower. Obviously as they get smaller then they escape the main defences against respiratory droplets.

AIUI respiratory droplets tend to start over 5-10 μm below which point they are considered to be droplet nuclei. The Covid virus has a size range of between 60-140 nm.

There is an interesting paper on TB
https://www.atsjournals.org/doi/full/10 ... cm.2401003

It strikes me, however, that wandering around a supermarket with a surgical mask on walking though sub micron sized respiratory droplet nuclei from someone with covid is not going to offer that much protection if the droplet nuclei are sub micron size. There is also an interesting question as to whether particles can evaporate with virus in them from a mask.

[servodude]

I was wondering what research people are aware of as to how respiratory droplets evaporate as they will do if the relatively humidity is lower

It's the other way from the research I've seen (but it's on paper and back in the CPAP lab and I'm on holiday at the moment)
- things don't evaporate rather they condense and fall (similar to the idea of a dew point)
- if you think about it.... if the droplets got smaller they would remain suspended the virus itself doesn't break up

-sd

[johnhemming]

- if you think about it.... if the droplets got smaller they would remain suspended the virus itself doesn't break up

Yes, but if they get smaller then they get past defences easier.

The paper I linked to starts:

The droplet nuclei (dried residua of larger respiratory droplets) that transmit tuberculosis infection remain almost as mysterious as the “miasmata” that scholars once believed transmitted diseases through the air. We know droplet nuclei are there.

So that confirms it happens.

[redsturgeon]

- if you think about it.... if the droplets got smaller they would remain suspended the virus itself doesn't break up

Yes, but if they get smaller then they get past defences easier.

The paper I linked to starts:

The droplet nuclei (dried residua of larger respiratory droplets) that transmit tuberculosis infection remain almost as mysterious as the “miasmata” that scholars once believed transmitted diseases through the air. We know droplet nuclei are there.

So that confirms it happens.

Smaller particles are trapped by electrostatic charge.

John

[johnhemming]

Smaller particles are trapped by electrostatic charge.

Are there any papers you can refer me to which indicate what proportion of what particles are trapped in this way?

I accept that it would happen to some extent.

[redsturgeon]

Smaller particles are trapped by electrostatic charge.

Are there any papers you can refer me to which indicate what proportion of what particles are trapped in this way?

I accept that it would happen to some extent.

https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acsnano.0c03252#

John

[look]

I read several times that low humidity increases the spread of the virus.
here is a link to a study. Despite only the abstract is accessible, it has it's value because it is clear, I think.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a ... 0720305928

my take: in the hospital doctors should use a big glass besides the mask, I don't know the name of that thing. The humidity should be controlled to prevent dry air.

[johnhemming]

https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acsnano.0c03252#

Thank you for that.

It is interesting to see the result that cloth masks are better than surgical masks with a gap and better than N95 masks for sizes under a 300nm.

[johnhemming]

Numbers of hospital admissions continue going up by back from 3/1 3351, 3145, 3010 Although mainly a South / East thing on 3/1 there is quite a jump in the NW from 247 to 315, but the second wave peak in NW is still 340. A fortnight before 3/1 is 20th December.

[servodude]

Numbers of hospital admissions continue going up by back from 3/1 3351, 3145, 3010 Although mainly a South / East thing on 3/1 there is quite a jump in the NW from 247 to 315, but the second wave peak in NW is still 340. A fortnight before 3/1 is 20th December.

So adjusting your fortnight delay down by a few days to work out the time between peaks (as per the previously published research on the spread of times)
- it suggests you might hopefully be reaching the Xmas day (restriction amnesty) peak for admissions
that would be good - fingers crossed
-sd

[scotview]

Does anyone have TOTAL annual deaths in UK for say last 5 years, including 2020.
I can only seem get accurate death RATE figures.
I would like to see the total annual UK deaths from ALL causes, as one number, to let me understand the impact Coronavirus on 2020.

Thanks in advance.

[servodude]

Does anyone have TOTAL annual deaths in UK for say last 5 years, including 2020.
I can only seem get accurate death RATE figures.
I would like to see the total UK deaths from ALL causes, as one number, to let me understand the impact Coronavirus on 2020.

Thanks in advance.

It will be a while I think before 2020 data is readily available

FWIW I find statista good for broad strokes data:https://www.statista.com/statistics/281488/number-of-deaths-in-the-united-kingdom-uk/

And the ONS https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending11december2020

In England, the number of deaths up to 11 December 2020 was 543,335, which is 65,251 (13.6%) more than the five-year average

Put both together and that might give you some idea?

-sd

[dealtn]

Does anyone have TOTAL annual deaths in UK for say last 5 years, including 2020.
I can only seem get accurate death RATE figures.
I would like to see the total annual UK deaths from ALL causes, as one number, to let me understand the impact Coronavirus on 2020.

Thanks in advance.

Try the annual accounts of Dignity PLC

[johnhemming]

Does anyone have TOTAL annual deaths in UK for say last 5 years, including 2020.
I can only seem get accurate death RATE figures.
I would like to see the total annual UK deaths from ALL causes, as one number, to let me understand the impact Coronavirus on 2020.

Thanks in advance.

Excess deaths is a useful thing to look at.
This has details for the UK and other European countries.
https://www.euromomo.eu/

[johnhemming]

Up from 3351 on 3/1 to 3587 on 4/1. Quite a big jump from 190-272 in the South West, new Peak in North West at 353. New peak in East at 479.