For anyone interested, I've managed to discover how the "deaths within 60 days from diagnosis" compares with the headline reported figure of "deaths from 28 days".
On average across England, using the "60 day" definition gives 68% more deaths than the headline figure. This is based on cumulative deaths from week 27 to week 41 (6th October) which is approximately the last 3.5 months (so from end-June).
This is based on the attached file from Public Health England (buried on page 55)
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... _FINAL.pdfHowever, to find out the total deaths to date under both definitions, I needed to find an Excel file under the link in the document (
Numbers are as follows :-
45,488 deaths after positive Covid test (no time limit at all - the originally used definition). As was pointed out at the time, this would inevitably lead to progressively greater overcounts because it assumed that once you'd had a positive test, if you died, it was because of Covid.
41,769 deaths within 60 days of positive test OR Covid-19 on death certificate.
37,688 deaths within 28 days of positive test (the currently used definition).
As you may remember, I think the 60 day definition is more representative of the true picture, because the "headline" definition excludes anyone dying more than 28 days after a positive Covid test - even if Covid is mentioned on the death certificate.
Quite a few interesting graphs in the report, including one on Page 15 by ethnicity, showing very large differences of weekly incidence of Covid per 100,000 people.
250 for Pakistani (Asian or Asian British)
220 for "Other" Ethnic groups
150 Indian (Asian or Asian British)
110 Other Asian/ Asian British
100 White
60 Black / African / Caribbean / Black British
55 Mixed / Multiple Ethnic groups
Page 21 shows outbreaks rocketing for educational establishment (obviously co-inciding with schools & universities reopening). This is by far the biggest source of outbreaks.
Page 22 shows that outbreaks associated with food outlets increased sharply around end-August (remember "Eat Out to Help Out" was throughout August) but has declined a little since then (though still higher than pre-August).
Page 22 shows workplace outbreaks increasing sharply a week or two later (probably co-inciding with the government calls for people to go back to their workplaces).
There an interesting (well, interesting to me!) graph on page 54 showing that for the last 3-4 weeks, the "28 day" and "60 day" definitions have been very close. This may be because a lot of "60 day" deaths not recorded were people who'd been affected badly in the first wave and never recovered, dying 2 (or more) months after first testing positive.
A reminder of the definitions (from the report).
The current definitions used for mortality surveillance of COVID-19 in England are:(a)28 day definition: A death in a person with a laboratory-confirmed positive COVID-19 test and died within (equal to or less than) 28 days of the first positive specimen date
(b)60 day definition: A death in a person with a laboratory-confirmed positive COVID-19 test and either: died within 60 days of the first specimen date OR died more than 60 days after the first specimen date only if COVID-19 is mentioned on the death certificate
