dealtn
Yes you "can", but that's not the same as what you originally said which was to do with the "primary mover". There is a huge difference between "primary mover" and "obvious winner", and it is especially hard to tell them apart with foresight.
Is it?
It was very easy with Tesla at least so far, if you had spent a long time studying secular growth from the beginning of the Industrial Revolution and some similar ideas from the ancients.
MotorCycleBoy
This would be really interesting if it was about Macro investments rather than Odysseus2000 vs the rest of the World.
That is often how it has to be to make progress and pick winners. Most of the world has been telling me since the days of the UK Fool that Tesla was massively over valued and could not compete with legacy auto.
The great thing about being slagged off repeatedly and derided as an idiot is that all of this diss was being done without any study of what was possible. One person was telling me that the production levels Musk was talking about had never been achieved, but I knew that Henry Ford had done better production levels without robots early last century.
I make a ton of mistakes, but so what?
If you are not making mistakes then you are not trying things.
Several folk have told me that they had done well this year and had made a few 100 basis points above bank rates. I smiled and didn't say that return was very poor, at least compared to the >120% I have made this year (and I am sure I should have done better), but such folk are often pillars of the community, have nice leased car and all the trappings of a job, but no clue about almost anything and are extremely small c conservative and lazy. Others have not spoken about their returns and seem to have had very bad years.
As with all things in life, some folk put little in, but find some way into a well paid job, others of equal quality are less lucky, others work very hard and lady luck still does not smile on them, while others work hard and profit from it.
The beauty of the Lemon is that it allows mostly polite discussion between posters spread across the generations and across the wealth and education spectrum. If people use it wisely it can be very valuable, but a lot get so caught up in emotions that they fail to grow and do not reap the blessing of the Lemon.
Regards,