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Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

The home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
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This is the home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
Lootman
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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#429727

Postby Lootman » July 22nd, 2021, 5:46 pm

zico wrote:
redsturgeon wrote:Not sure if it is too early to say but there seems to be a levelling off in the daily new covid cases. This seems counter intuitive and against all of the scientist's predictions...let's hope it holds.

Hope it's right, but it would be very surprising indeed. One reason may be that following "pingdemic" coverage, people are uninstalling the NHS app, and another (more hopeful, but less likely) is that the virus has gone through the susceptible unvaccinated incautious groups, and is now coming up against the vaccinated and/or cautious groups.

Not just de-installing the app, but places like pubs and restaurants are, in many cases, no longer requiring that you "check in" with the app.

They are also bringing into service more tables, and customers are therefore closer together.

So we will see.

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#429728

Postby Gersemi » July 22nd, 2021, 5:48 pm

redsturgeon wrote:Not sure if it is too early to say but there seems to be a levelling off in the daily new covid cases. This seems counter intuitive and against all of the scientist's predictions...let's hope it holds.

john


It seems to me that there was a peak on 15 July, which is the fifth day after 11 July. Now was there a special event on that day?

It will be interesting to see what the general trend is in the next few days.

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#429733

Postby Itsallaguess » July 22nd, 2021, 6:18 pm

zico wrote:
redsturgeon wrote:
Not sure if it is too early to say but there seems to be a levelling off in the daily new covid cases.

This seems counter intuitive and against all of the scientist's predictions...let's hope it holds.


Hope it's right, but it would be very surprising indeed.


Disappointing even, for some people, I'm sure...

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#429740

Postby zico » July 22nd, 2021, 6:38 pm

Itsallaguess wrote:
zico wrote:
redsturgeon wrote:
Not sure if it is too early to say but there seems to be a levelling off in the daily new covid cases.

This seems counter intuitive and against all of the scientist's predictions...let's hope it holds.


Hope it's right, but it would be very surprising indeed.


Disappointing even, for some people, I'm sure...

Cheers,

Itsallaguess


Not disappointing for me. Throughout the pandemic, I've mostly been pessimistic, and would always have loved to have been dead wrong. If infections decrease after the opening up, it will be great news for us all.

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#429748

Postby Clitheroekid » July 22nd, 2021, 7:21 pm

zico wrote:Not disappointing for me. Throughout the pandemic, I've mostly been pessimistic, and would always have loved to have been dead wrong. If infections decrease after the opening up, it will be great news for us all.

I got quite a shock then, as the way the text appeared on my browser the first line ended with the word `dead'! :shock:

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#429847

Postby redsturgeon » July 23rd, 2021, 8:45 am

Some extra thoughts on the official numbers on daily new cases.

- If you look at the numbers from the Zoe app then they are reporting 60,000 new symptomatic cases a day and a continued rise.

- Speaking with Mrs RS about this she reports that this week she had 4% positive tests of those she tested this week, a mix of unvaccinated, single vaxxed and double vaxxed. (Remember we are testing people who have no reason to believe they are positive)

-She also reported several cancellations of tests for travel from people who had had a positive test themselves or in their family travel group.

- Interestingly some of the people she talked to on the phone, although having had a positive lateral flow test from self testing, were not intending to go for an official PCR test and therefore would never show up in the official numbers.

- For comparison, in the months of testing from December to March we also picked up three positive cases and they were all from inbound travellers, so four positive in the last week plus more than that picked up via phone calls to cancelled is very significant.

Finally listening to John Campbell this morning he was reporting the more than 90% prevalence of antibodies in the Uk population. This is clearly good news and suggests we ought to be very close to the magic "herd immunity", in fact most would have suspected we are way past that number by now.


John

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#429860

Postby Hallucigenia » July 23rd, 2021, 9:40 am

redsturgeon wrote:Finally listening to John Campbell this morning he was reporting the more than 90% prevalence of antibodies in the Uk population. This is clearly good news and suggests we ought to be very close to the magic "herd immunity", in fact most would have suspected we are way past that number by now.


Wotcha RS. And yet numbers continue to rise. The herd immunity threshold is directly related to R - if "immunisation" (by jab or disease) is 100% then herd immunity kicks in at 1-(1/R). Given that delta seems to have an R of around 6, you need at least 83% immunised. But since immunisation isn't 100% effective, you need further adjustments for that.

So the threshold is probably around 90% for delta, potentially we're there or thereabouts which is great news for those who can't be jabbed for medical reasons.

OTOH, the immunology gets complicated and you have to factor in how immunity declines with time, which is one of the big uncertainties at the moment, along with the ability of new variants to break immunity. According to some studies, Manaus was at 70+% with antibodies in October, which should have been enough for pre-delta variants, but had a horrendous wave after Christmas. So don't get too carried away just yet...

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#429871

Postby redsturgeon » July 23rd, 2021, 10:09 am

Hallucigenia wrote:
redsturgeon wrote:Finally listening to John Campbell this morning he was reporting the more than 90% prevalence of antibodies in the Uk population. This is clearly good news and suggests we ought to be very close to the magic "herd immunity", in fact most would have suspected we are way past that number by now.


Wotcha RS. And yet numbers continue to rise. The herd immunity threshold is directly related to R - if "immunisation" (by jab or disease) is 100% then herd immunity kicks in at 1-(1/R). Given that delta seems to have an R of around 6, you need at least 83% immunised. But since immunisation isn't 100% effective, you need further adjustments for that.

So the threshold is probably around 90% for delta, potentially we're there or thereabouts which is great news for those who can't be jabbed for medical reasons.

OTOH, the immunology gets complicated and you have to factor in how immunity declines with time, which is one of the big uncertainties at the moment, along with the ability of new variants to break immunity. According to some studies, Manaus was at 70+% with antibodies in October, which should have been enough for pre-delta variants, but had a horrendous wave after Christmas. So don't get too carried away just yet...


Hi Hal,

Long time no hear! I hope you are keeping well.

Yes it is all very complicated. We can only hope that we are almost there (I feel like the kid in the back of the car, "are we there yet")

I am now expecting this to be a big spike in cases with a hopefully smaller manageable spike in hospitalisations and deaths and then a equally fast reduction into the Autumn. Then we'll just need to worry about a resurgence of flu and other respiratory diseases that have been kept at bay by our social distancing which might then let rip this winter.

John

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#429875

Postby daveh » July 23rd, 2021, 10:33 am

redsturgeon wrote:Not sure if it is too early to say but there seems to be a levelling off in the daily new covid cases. This seems counter intuitive and against all of the scientist's predictions...let's hope it holds.

john


Possibly. Here in Scotland cases peaked at around 3300 cases per day (7 day moving average) on around 4 or 5th July and have fallen to ~1800 cases per day (7 day moving average) on the 19th July and look to be continuing that downward trend over the last 4 days (the moving average is 4 days in arrears). (Data from https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/ ... 0/Overview). Looking at the UK as a whole (data from https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/) the UK data seems to have just peaked, but as Scotland is falling significantly I think England must be still rising, though at a lower rate. That seems to be confirmed when I look at map view on the .gov.uk site as every council area bar one I looked at in Scotland had falling case rates and every council area I looked at in England still had rising case rates. We should see in a week or so if rates in England follow the reductions seen in Scotland. It was suggested that the reason for Scotland turning the corner sooner than England was that schools closed for the summer two or three weeks earlier than England, and now the English schools are on holiday that should put a check on English case rates. If that is true it suggests that it might have been sensible for England to hold off fully opening up until after schools had broken up for the summer.

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#429885

Postby zico » July 23rd, 2021, 11:23 am

redsturgeon wrote:Finally listening to John Campbell this morning he was reporting the more than 90% prevalence of antibodies in the Uk population. This is clearly good news and suggests we ought to be very close to the magic "herd immunity", in fact most would have suspected we are way past that number by now.
John


Is that 90% of the adult UK population (which is certainly possible) or 90% of the total UK population (which sounds impossible).
20% of the population are under 18 are ineligible for vaccination, so to get 90% antibodies for the UK population, we'd need 100% of the UK population and 50% of the under-18s to have antibodies.

I just can't see how we can have got to 90%. Mind you, it certainly wouldn't be the first time it's been claimed we're nearly at "herd immunity" and I'm sure it won't be the last. Remember last spring/summer, when 20% was being floated as "herd immunity", of course they were just theories, unsupported by any actual hard data and evidence.

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#429887

Postby zico » July 23rd, 2021, 11:26 am

redsturgeon wrote:Then we'll just need to worry about a resurgence of flu and other respiratory diseases that have been kept at bay by our social distancing which might then let rip this winter.

John


Is it too much to hope for that people will simply give each other a bit more space this winter, and not go into work with coughs and sneezes, or at the very least wear a mask rather than sneeze over everybody? That would almost certainly have a big impact on reducing any potential flu epidemic.
We could actually get a permanent and real reduction in some diseases if we were simply a bit more health-aware.

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#429892

Postby servodude » July 23rd, 2021, 11:38 am

zico wrote:We could actually get a permanent and real reduction in some diseases if we were simply a bit more health-aware


Or, indeed, learned some basic f***ing manners!

Not gobbin' your expectoration over your fellow tube passengers should have been the bloody default position!

Not saying it would have stopped this pandemic; but really? coughing in someone else's face once your past the age of reason deserves a swift kick in the moofer!

-sd

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#429894

Postby Hallucigenia » July 23rd, 2021, 11:43 am

redsturgeon wrote:Hi Hal,

Long time no hear! I hope you are keeping well.

Yes it is all very complicated. We can only hope that we are almost there (I feel like the kid in the back of the car, "are we there yet")

I am now expecting this to be a big spike in cases with a hopefully smaller manageable spike in hospitalisations and deaths and then a equally fast reduction into the Autumn. Then we'll just need to worry about a resurgence of flu and other respiratory diseases that have been kept at bay by our social distancing which might then let rip this winter.

John


Likewise. Well you know, surviving. Got Covid very early on, before lockdown1 probably on a train, got mild long-Covid of which the hit to smell/taste is much the most annoying, sensing wine/beer is not great.

I think the big question is what "there" looks like - Johnson seems to be in fantasy that it will all be back to as it was before as of this week, and it plainly won't.

Everyone's looking at cases and the "lack" of deaths, but the big thing to watch at the moment is intensive care capacity, that's where the pinchpoint is. We're already less than a doubling from people on ventilation going past where it was at the start of lockdown 2, which I imagine will be somewhere around ICU capacity. I guess that doubling is already baked in given how cases have gone up.

Aside from the schools breaking up at different times, Scotland had a lot less reason to get excited about the football - we've already seen deaths from watching the England-Croatia game at a social club.

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#429896

Postby Hallucigenia » July 23rd, 2021, 11:44 am

zico wrote:20% of the population are under 18 are ineligible for vaccination, so to get 90% antibodies for the UK population, we'd need 100% of the UK population and 50% of the under-18s to have antibodies.

I just can't see how we can have got to 90%.


You don't just get antibodies from vaccination, you get them from infection as well. Which seems to be the plan for British kids.

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#429897

Postby Julian » July 23rd, 2021, 11:46 am

zico wrote:
redsturgeon wrote:Finally listening to John Campbell this morning he was reporting the more than 90% prevalence of antibodies in the Uk population. This is clearly good news and suggests we ought to be very close to the magic "herd immunity", in fact most would have suspected we are way past that number by now.
John


Is that 90% of the adult UK population (which is certainly possible) or 90% of the total UK population (which sounds impossible).
20% of the population are under 18 are ineligible for vaccination, so to get 90% antibodies for the UK population, we'd need 100% of the UK population and 50% of the under-18s to have antibodies.

I just can't see how we can have got to 90%. Mind you, it certainly wouldn't be the first time it's been claimed we're nearly at "herd immunity" and I'm sure it won't be the last. Remember last spring/summer, when 20% was being floated as "herd immunity", of course they were just theories, unsupported by any actual hard data and evidence.

Asymptomatic(*) natural infections? If the under 12s for instance are highly unlikely to be symptomatic then that, coupled with the extreme difficulty of getting them to understand and adhere to social distancing, could even mean that some of the younger age groups might even have the highest percentage of the cohort with detectable antibodies simply because the disease spread widely and largely unknown amongst some or all of the younger age groups during the times when we weren't in the strictest school-closing lockdowns.

- Julian

(*) The definition of asymptomatic could perhaps be stretched a bit for younger age groups to include mild symptoms that were mis-attributed to something else, something that might have happened in the early days and if the symptoms were extremely transient lasting only a day or less hence not causing undue alarm. Not that I'm an under-12 but in retrospect I'm pretty sure that I had Covid-19 back in April or May last year on the basis of about 8 hours of one severe symptom that at the time wasn't associated with Covid-19 but now is. At the time I could find no explanation for my symptom and since it only lasted 1 night and I was fine the following morning I simply shrugged it off and thought nothing more of it.

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#429918

Postby zico » July 23rd, 2021, 12:41 pm

Yes, maybe 90% is possible.

Adult population is 80% of total population, we know 69% have had 2nd jabs, 20% have had just 1st jabs, and we could reasonably assume virtually all the remaining unvaccinated 11% have all been exposed enough to have been infected (or had anti-bodies to reject it).
We'd then need just over 40% of children to have been exposed to the virus sufficiently to have developed anti-bodies.

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#429933

Postby Itsallaguess » July 23rd, 2021, 2:18 pm

zico wrote:
redsturgeon wrote:
Finally listening to John Campbell this morning he was reporting the more than 90% prevalence of antibodies in the Uk population. This is clearly good news and suggests we ought to be very close to the magic "herd immunity", in fact most would have suspected we are way past that number by now.


Is that 90% of the adult UK population (which is certainly possible) or 90% of the total UK population (which sounds impossible).


This recent bit of info from the ONS (21st July) seems to suggest that it's over 90% of the adult population -

https://twitter.com/ONS/status/1417780226755604482?s=20

Alternative source - https://i.imgur.com/KeaVFKY.png

Still a pretty respectable achievement, all the same, and it would be interesting to know how that level drops as we start to include younger age groups...

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#429992

Postby 88V8 » July 23rd, 2021, 8:04 pm

zico wrote:We'd then need just over 40% of children to have been exposed to the virus sufficiently to have developed anti-bodies.

This may have been contradicted since, but I heard that exposure to Covid only provides antibodies against whichever variant one caught. As distinct from the vaccine(s) which provide a wider spectrum.

V8

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#430000

Postby AWOL » July 23rd, 2021, 8:42 pm

Do we know how the quality of immune response compares between those vaccinated (but not had COVID) and those who have had COVID?

I am curious as some of my wife's colleagues have had COVID twice and I hear a lot of vox pop interviews where youths say "Ahv had the COVID so ah can do anyfink with nae worries" or however the yoof of today speaks.

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#430008

Postby onthemove » July 23rd, 2021, 9:21 pm

88V8 wrote:
zico wrote:We'd then need just over 40% of children to have been exposed to the virus sufficiently to have developed anti-bodies.

This may have been contradicted since, but I heard that exposure to Covid only provides antibodies against whichever variant one caught. As distinct from the vaccine(s) which provide a wider spectrum.

V8


Studies earlier in the year suggested the opposite...

"The findings provide the strongest evidence yet that the immune system “remembers” the virus and continues to improve the quality of antibodies after infection has waned.

Antibodies produced months after the infection showed increased ability to block Sars-CoV-2, as well as its mutated versions.

Other studies suggest, however, some mutations may dampen vaccine effectiveness." https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/ ... -1.4468141


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