Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

[monabri]

How does the British variant get to the Philippines?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/ ... rns-corner

"The Philippine health ministry said the B.1.1.7 variant had spread among 12 people in Bontoc, a mountainous northern province, with 17 such cases in the country. Its first case of the British variant was found in a Filipino who had travelled from the United Arab Emirates."

[servodude]

My understanding is that the government are finally acting on border control due to fear of new variants spreading. My worry is that they know more than they are saying but possibly they are just being cautious...shame it took them so long.

I can see this being a lot more complex than the government imagines though. When you consider the logistics involved a year or so ago with isolating just a few hundred repatriated from China.

John

Depends on whether it's showboating or a practical effort
- they could start with cutting the numbers they need to deal with

- it's clear that controlling borders works (and not just delays things for a couple of months)... but takes a great deal of effort, and can easily be compromised

But pretending though that you can just say something and make it so is going to get you in to trouble eventually, and I do think that this is becoming clearer to those in charge in most of the planet

- sd

[swill453]

How does the British variant get to the Philippines?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/ ... rns-corner

"The Philippine health ministry said the B.1.1.7 variant had spread among 12 people in Bontoc, a mountainous northern province, with 17 such cases in the country. Its first case of the British variant was found in a Filipino who had travelled from the United Arab Emirates."

By a plane from UK to UAE, person-to-person contact, then another plane from UAE to the Philippines, then more person-to-person contact?

Or was there more to the question than this?

Scott.

[88V8]

Times Radio this morning, a chap relating the experience of being quarantined in.... um wasn't listening at the beginning... China or Singapore.... sprayed with disinfectant then you go by special cab - the only cab available - to hotel, have to buy a local SIM, they randomly phone you daily or more to ensure you are with your phone, can't leave room. He was able to wfh, but even so said in week two time did drag.
Not sure we have the guts or the manpower to enforce this.

V8

[88V8]

The EU sabre rattllng, the UK is getting too much of 'their' vaccine. They might prevent exports.

I guess we can do that too, Oxford being more than a brand name.

Dutch elections coming up, the EU needs to show it can do nationalism.

How easily the world order becomes disordered when the chips are down.

V8

[tjh290633]

For general information, I received my pack for the Imperial College antibody test survey this morning. The test was negative, but as they say, the test is not 100% accurate at the personal level.

I am as certain as I can be that I have not been infected.

TJH

[jfgw]

Consider a "game". There are 2 velvet bags each contain 100 balls. The first bag is labelled "UK", the second "elsewhere". You have to pick a ball randomly from the bag "UK", if it is white you win, if black you lose (or die if we want to be morbid). There are 90 white balls and 10 black ones. the model is simple and the ball representing your next "contact", you can work out your odds of winning easily.

In the next version of the game before you choose your ball from the first bag 10 balls are switched between bags (representing air travel). What if in bag "elsewhere" there are 96 white balls and 4 black ones? After the "switch" the odds of pulling a white ball from the 100 balls in bag "UK" have improved.

Consider other versions. Instead of switching 10 balls, travel is now "restricted", so the preamble to the game represents just 2 balls switching bags now instead of 10. This version of the game has higher odds of white than the original, but less than the second version.

Lets add another colour ball to represent a new strain of the virus. White is safe, blue is "get ill", black is "die" (black being a worse strain). Bag "UK" has 90 white, 2 blue, 8 black. Bag "elsewhere" has 90 white, 8 blue, 2 black (or 96 white, 2 blue , 2 black) etc.

There are plenty versions of this game where allowing mixing between the bags increases your chances of pulling a white ball from the "UK" bag, than from the strict 90 white 10 black original version.

I don't think it is as much to do with black balls being deadlier than blue ones, I think a far greater factor is that paint is more likely to rub off of black balls and turn some of the white balls black than for paint to similarly be transferred from the blue balls.


Julian F. G. W.

[Arborbridge]

The EU sabre rattllng, the UK is getting too much of 'their' vaccine. They might prevent exports.

I guess we can do that too, Oxford being more than a brand name.

Dutch elections coming up, the EU needs to show it can do nationalism.

How easily the world order becomes disordered when the chips are down.

V8

Yes, I immediately thought of "dog eat dog".
The EU is only defending it's own, just the same as we are.
It does raise interesting general questions about security of supply (of anything) when one is a single country depending on international companies and competing with other blocs. (Trying desperately not to be political here!).

Arb.

[Lootman]

why not just ban flights? - be honest and say we are isolating if tht's what we must do. If the government simply slapped on a ban, at least people with holidays or flights booked would then have some rights to refund. If the individual makes that decision, there wouldn't be, presumably - even though they were de facto carrying out the government's wishes.

The scheduled flights that are still running are carrying a lot more than just passengers though.

My long haul flight last month was only 10% full with passengers. But the pilot announced that he had a full take-off weight. This was because of the large amount of freight being carried in the hold. This is what is providing most of BA's revenue right now - the passengers are just a bonus.

Of course they could run the planes as freight only, and I believe a couple of 777's have had all the seats taken out. But there are still passengers who need to fly, and I provided a list of exemptions to the restrictions earlier.

it's clear that controlling borders works (and not just delays things for a couple of months)... but takes a great deal of effort, and can easily be compromised

Or rather, it is clear that IF your country has the good fortune to not already have the virus and IF you are a long way from anywhere else and have no land border with other countries and IF you are not an important transit hub or destination THEN it can work, at least temporarily.

A year late for a country that normally has annual border crossings equal to 5 times its population? Maybe not.

But you are correct that it is all down to how it is done. And unless the passenger numbers are trivial, this will either be a logistical nightmare, or else will be de facto voluntary.

[tjh290633]

My long haul flight last month was only 10% full with passengers. But the pilot announced that he had a full take-off weight. This was because of the large amount of freight being carried in the hold. This is what is providing most of BA's revenue right now - the passengers are just a bonus.

Of course they could run the planes as freight only, and I believe a couple of 777's have had all the seats taken out. But there are still passengers who need to fly, and I provided a list of exemptions to the restrictions earlier.

Many years ago (1971) I flew with Lufthansa from Lima in Peru to JFK. The aircraft was a DC10 with half of the cabin shut off and used for freight. I have a feeling that it was called a "Combi". There was a German male voice choir on board, who sang a farewell song on the steps into the aircraft.

TJH

[servodude]

A year late for a country that normally has annual border crossings equal to 5 times its population? Maybe not.

But you are correct that it is all down to how it is done. And unless the passenger numbers are trivial, this will either be a logistical nightmare, or else will be de facto voluntary.

It's late certainly, but the principle still has merit at this stage
- it's clear that voluntary measures don't offer the same degree of protection (either because they are ignored or can still provide enough of a transmission channel)
- and practically it only really needs to be done until there's enough of the at-risk covered by the vaccine; unless that's already been compromised, in which case you can consider this "quite early" for the containment protocols for the next strain

I do suspect though that it will be reviewed quite quickly, probably implemented sometime mid-to-late Feb and withdrawn a week or two later

- sd

[Mike4]

- and practically it only really needs to be done until there's enough of the at-risk covered by the vaccine; unless that's already been compromised, in which case you can consider this "quite early" for the containment protocols for the next strain

I do suspect though that it will be reviewed quite quickly, probably implemented sometime mid-to-late Feb and withdrawn a week or two later

- sd

I've found myself musing/peering much further into the future these last few days. Come summer the increased daylight and natural vitamin D production along with higher temps and humidity will suppress the virus anyway just like it did last year, but this year this will be attributed to the vaccine working by ill informed commentators and politicians. The pandemic will be declared all but defeated, just as it was last summer.

I suspect the real-world effectiveness of the vaccine will only really be tested and revealed come next winter and new mutations, some defeating the vaccine, will continue to emerge in all parts of the world with high prevalence and make their way over here while our ruling politicians continue to come up with streams of reasons not to take the steps necessary to stop it.

in addition 'vaccine hesitancy' will become a thing. It looks to me as though about 50% of the population here will never be vaccinated, once you add up all the people who either don't qualify to be vaccinated or who declare they won't take it regardless of the evidence.

I sometime feel we might be only 10% into this pandemic so far. Hopefully I'm wrong.

[servodude]

- and practically it only really needs to be done until there's enough of the at-risk covered by the vaccine; unless that's already been compromised, in which case you can consider this "quite early" for the containment protocols for the next strain

I do suspect though that it will be reviewed quite quickly, probably implemented sometime mid-to-late Feb and withdrawn a week or two later

- sd

I've found myself musing/peering much further into the future these last few days. Come summer the increased daylight and natural vitamin D production along with higher temps and humidity will suppress the virus anyway just like it did last year, but this year this will be attributed to the vaccine working by ill informed commentators and politicians. The pandemic will be declared all but defeated, just as it was last summer.

I suspect the real-world effectiveness of the vaccine will only really be tested and revealed come next winter and new mutations, some defeating the vaccine, will continue to emerge in all parts of the world with high prevalence and make their way over here while our ruling politicians continue to come up with streams of reasons not to take the steps necessary to stop it.

in addition 'vaccine hesitancy' will become a thing. It looks to me as though about 50% of the population here will never be vaccinated, once you add up all the people who either don't qualify to be vaccinated or who declare they won't take it regardless of the evidence.

I sometime feel we might be only 10% into this pandemic so far. Hopefully I'm wrong.

Crikey I thought my 20% perception was bad!

[Mike4]

- and practically it only really needs to be done until there's enough of the at-risk covered by the vaccine; unless that's already been compromised, in which case you can consider this "quite early" for the containment protocols for the next strain

I do suspect though that it will be reviewed quite quickly, probably implemented sometime mid-to-late Feb and withdrawn a week or two later

- sd

I've found myself musing/peering much further into the future these last few days. Come summer the increased daylight and natural vitamin D production along with higher temps and humidity will suppress the virus anyway just like it did last year, but this year this will be attributed to the vaccine working by ill informed commentators and politicians. The pandemic will be declared all but defeated, just as it was last summer.

I suspect the real-world effectiveness of the vaccine will only really be tested and revealed come next winter and new mutations, some defeating the vaccine, will continue to emerge in all parts of the world with high prevalence and make their way over here while our ruling politicians continue to come up with streams of reasons not to take the steps necessary to stop it.

in addition 'vaccine hesitancy' will become a thing. It looks to me as though about 50% of the population here will never be vaccinated, once you add up all the people who either don't qualify to be vaccinated or who declare they won't take it regardless of the evidence.

I sometime feel we might be only 10% into this pandemic so far. Hopefully I'm wrong.

Crikey I thought my 20% perception was bad!

No, this is an illustration of both our tendencies to look on the bright side!

[Lootman]

A year late for a country that normally has annual border crossings equal to 5 times its population? Maybe not.

But you are correct that it is all down to how it is done. And unless the passenger numbers are trivial, this will either be a logistical nightmare, or else will be de facto voluntary.

It's late certainly, but the principle still has merit at this stage
- it's clear that voluntary measures don't offer the same degree of protection (either because they are ignored or can still provide enough of a transmission channel)
- and practically it only really needs to be done until there's enough of the at-risk covered by the vaccine; unless that's already been compromised, in which case you can consider this "quite early" for the containment protocols for the next strain

I do suspect though that it will be reviewed quite quickly, probably implemented sometime mid-to-late Feb and withdrawn a week or two later,

It looks like the UK is going for a flexible and targeted hotel quarantine programme, with a focus on arrivals from countries with known risk rather than a blunderbuss "one size fits all" approach.

Better to do that well than do something far more ambitious that will fail. And with the UK a net exporter of the virus, foreigners have more reason to fear us than vice versa.

[Mike4]

Better to do that well than do something far more ambitious that will fail. And with the UK a net exporter of the virus, foreigners have more reason to fear us than vice versa.

Such a naïve point of view. New and dangerous mutations are cropping up all over the world. It isn't just us exporting ours to them, we need to prevent other countries exporting their (different) mutations to us.

[Itsallaguess]

I sometime feel we might be only 10% into this pandemic so far.

Hopefully I'm wrong.

I'm more optimistic than that, but with a view that's tending to concentrate on 'lock-down requirements' rather than 'infection rates'...

Some of the early info coming out of Israel (https://www.lemonfool.co.uk/viewtopic.php?p=380287#p380171), who are the furthest along with their own vaccine programme than any other country, look to be very promising on the hospitalisation-metrics that have driven the harshest lock-down protocols in the UK.

Whist recognising the potential for supply-related issues, our own vaccine roll-out seems to be going very well indeed, and we might hopefully begin to see some similar hospitalisation benefits in a small number of weeks now, and I think if we get to see that turning point, and also get into the warmer spring and summer months, whilst we continue with the broader vaccination roll-out, I think we might begin to see a brighter 2021 ahead of us, even into that 2021 winter period...

Some news from this morning is that the Chief Executive of AstraZenica has recently said that the UK are on course to have everyone over the age of 50 vaccinated by March - https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/01/26/britain-track-vaccinate-nearly-everyone-aged-50-march-astrazeneca/

The one larger concern for me at the moment is when I read about some sections of UK society being much more anti-vaccine than others, and I do worry if that might turn into a larger issue in the future from both a medical and a societal aspect.

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

[redsturgeon]

I sometime feel we might be only 10% into this pandemic so far.

Hopefully I'm wrong.

I'm more optimistic than that, but with a view that's tending to concentrate on 'lock-down requirements' rather than 'infection rates'...

Some of the early info coming out of Israel (https://www.lemonfool.co.uk/viewtopic.php?p=380287#p380171), who are the furthest along with their own vaccine programme than any other country, look to be very promising on the hospitalisation-metrics that have driven the harshest lock-down protocols in the UK.

Whist recognising the potential for supply-related issues, our own vaccine roll-out seems to be going very well indeed, and we might hopefully begin to see some similar hospitalisation benefits in a small number of weeks now, and I think if we get to see that turning point, and also get into the warmer spring and summer months, whilst we continue with the broader vaccination roll-out, I think we might begin to see a brighter 2021 ahead of us, even into that 2021 winter period...

Some news from this morning is that the Chief Executive of AstraZenica has recently said that the UK are on course to have everyone over the age of 50 vaccinated by March - https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/01/26/britain-track-vaccinate-nearly-everyone-aged-50-march-astrazeneca/

The one larger concern for me at the moment is when I read about some sections of UK society being much more anti-vaccine than others, and I do worry if that might turn into a larger issue in the future from both a medical and a societal aspect.

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

Iaag sums up my overall view on this.

Barring any black swan surprises...

John

[Mike4]

Iaag sums up my overall view on this.

Barring any black swan surprises...

John

Well both IAAG and I have already spotted the whacking great black swan swimming into view. We have both mentioned it but no-one ever picks up on the point to unpick it.

What concentration of vaccination do we need to get to 'herd immunity' (or 'heard immunity' as I am increasingly seeing it written lol)? I am now hearing immunologists saying 80% is necessary given the higher transmissibility of the now dominant Kent variant.

Given the huge numbers of people who won't be getting vaccinated, how are we ever likely to get anywhere close?

We have people under 18 and pregnant women who are ineligible, then add in covid sceptics, covid deniers, anti-vaxxers, women trying to get pregnant, and now I read that there is a high level of reluctance within the poorer sections of our communities and also within the BAME categories. I think the vaccination programme is gonna run out of recipients before we even do 50% of the population.

[tikunetih]

Some news from this morning is that the Chief Executive of AstraZenica has recently said that the UK are on course to have everyone over the age of 50 vaccinated by March

Did he mean "half-vaccinated", ie. first dose only? Presumably. Or am I incorrect?