Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

[redsturgeon]

No private supply is being made available yet from the manufacturers, I do not know the reason.

Back in late 2020 I asked (via my wife who is in the healthcare business) about getting the vaccine privately and she said pretty much what you said i.e. that there was no availability in the private sector.

I can only assume that this was deliberate government policy. They thought it might look bad if people could "buy" protection. Even in the US, where I was able to secure my jabs before I could have done on the UK, it was still administered only by the government.

Could there be another explanation?

Due to the pandemic emergency, the arrangement was for the vaccines to be put into use rapidly. To this end the vaccine manufacturers were not expected to be held responsible for any consequent risks, these risks instead being assumed by the government. I imagine this still applies.

That is an interesting point and one that I had not considered.

John

[servodude]

No private supply is being made available yet from the manufacturers, I do not know the reason.

Back in late 2020 I asked (via my wife who is in the healthcare business) about getting the vaccine privately and she said pretty much what you said i.e. that there was no availability in the private sector.

I can only assume that this was deliberate government policy. They thought it might look bad if people could "buy" protection. Even in the US, where I was able to secure my jabs before I could have done on the UK, it was still administered only by the government.

Could there be another explanation?

Due to the pandemic emergency, the arrangement was for the vaccines to be put into use rapidly. To this end the vaccine manufacturers were not expected to be held responsible for any consequent risks, these risks instead being assumed by the government. I imagine this still applies.

That is an interesting point and one that I had not considered.

John

I think there's a bit of that: "emergency approvals" being a thing that expedited supply on a per batch basis - but at the expense of general availability.

I believe that the volume orders for national distribution were placed by governments though, who ultimately could have chosen to make them available widely (or however the wanted) should anyone have wanted to pay for the privilege. That was the situation round these parts anyway.

[Mike4]

No private supply is being made available yet from the manufacturers, I do not know the reason.

Back in late 2020 I asked (via my wife who is in the healthcare business) about getting the vaccine privately and she said pretty much what you said i.e. that there was no availability in the private sector.

I can only assume that this was deliberate government policy. They thought it might look bad if people could "buy" protection. Even in the US, where I was able to secure my jabs before I could have done on the UK, it was still administered only by the government.

Could there be another explanation?

Due to the pandemic emergency, the arrangement was for the vaccines to be put into use rapidly. To this end the vaccine manufacturers were not expected to be held responsible for any consequent risks, these risks instead being assumed by the government. I imagine this still applies.

That is an interesting point and one that I had not considered.

John

I think there's a bit of that: "emergency approvals" being a thing that expedited supply on a per batch basis - but at the expense of general availability.

I believe that the volume orders for national distribution were placed by governments though, who ultimately could have chosen to make them available widely (or however the wanted) should anyone have wanted to pay for the privilege. That was the situation round these parts anyway.

I would imagine the 'Emergency Approval' the vaccines currently enjoy* is significantly different from the full approval that takes years of trials and stats-gathering to obtain. And one of the conditions of emergency approval may well be that they may only be supplied to government(s), or third parties nominated by the government.


* Or has full approval been granted now to any by now? Or all?

[Hallucigenia]

It was a reference to the replies to what I think was your poll about face coverings. Since then Covid has mostly dropped out of the news.

And also much less posting about Covid here on TLF, although a handful here still see it as a risk.

Well there's only so much to say, and those who think one way will do their thing, and those who think differently will do their thing. But if you don't think it's still a risk, it looks like the BA.4/5 wave is starting, accelerated by the Jubilee superspreader event - see my post on the numbers thread :

Hospital admissions with COVID are rising sharply across England, up 33% week-on-week. Admissions rose by between 23% and 50% in all English regions. Bed occupancy is up by 12%.
Hospital deaths with COVID are no longer falling. Our estimate suggests deaths rose by 8% this week....
the current rate of increase in hospital admissions is faster than we saw during the BA.2 Omicron wave in March.
This chart shows what that means as an R estimate, currently approaching 1.2.

The presentation from a professor of biosecurity may also be of interest to people here.

No private supply is being made available yet from the manufacturers, I do not know the reason.

I imagine that's a conscious choice by the vaccine makers to deal with governments and the WHO for the time being. It makes sense just in terms of basic equity to do it that way until everyone on the planet has had their first and second jabs, but also they're not making enough on a per-jab basis to justify the bad headlines from the rich "buying their way to the front of the queue" - there was a real outcry in the early days of the jab when the rich in somewhere like Qatar were buying jabs for $20k or something daft. The manufacturers have a huge backlog, they don't need the hassle of private sales.

As for UK plans, although the current plan from the JCVI announced a month ago is to give an autumn boost to health workers, the over 65's and at-risk groups under 65, I suspect we'll see some kind of U-turn and a wider boost when we get to autumn, especially given some of the concerning news about how different the latest variants are antigenically and the rate at which immunity seems to fade.

[Hallucigenia]

This is interesting - there's a lot of people not showing positive on lateral flows, even if they probably have it. I think I was probably one last week - SWMBO was positive and had it quite badly, I had similar but milder symptoms - sore throat, tiredness etc - but didn't have a clear positive on any of my tests (although I wasn't testing every day). Not clear whether it's an effect of a primed immune system responding faster or something about omicron biology - less in the nose etc - that makes it somewhat evasive of testing.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/arch ... te/661242/

[Mike4]

This is interesting - there's a lot of people not showing positive on lateral flows, even if they probably have it. I think I was probably one last week - SWMBO was positive and had it quite badly, I had similar but milder symptoms - sore throat, tiredness etc - but didn't have a clear positive on any of my tests (although I wasn't testing every day). Not clear whether it's an effect of a primed immune system responding faster or something about omicron biology - less in the nose etc - that makes it somewhat evasive of testing.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/arch ... te/661242/

This is consistent with my own experience. I've been ill twice now with what I think was Covid yet during both illnesses I returned negative test results throughout.

So there's a possible data point of one, for what it's worth! (Or is it two?)

Quantifying the false negative rate seems near-impossible, I'd have thought.

[Gersemi]

This is interesting - there's a lot of people not showing positive on lateral flows, even if they probably have it. I think I was probably one last week - SWMBO was positive and had it quite badly, I had similar but milder symptoms - sore throat, tiredness etc - but didn't have a clear positive on any of my tests (although I wasn't testing every day). Not clear whether it's an effect of a primed immune system responding faster or something about omicron biology - less in the nose etc - that makes it somewhat evasive of testing.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/arch ... te/661242/

Oh dear. I have been staying with friends and one tested positive on Sunday. I have had two negative tests, but feel a bit tired and have a sore throat. I have a hospital out-patient appointment tomorrow which I phoned to cancel on the grounds that I had been in contact with a positive case (my letter said to cancel if that was the case within 14 days of the appointment). The receptionist asked if I had tested positive - no I said - in that case you can still attend she said, the rules have changed. I will test again tomorrow before attending, but I hope I don't infect a load of other patients.

Nb - I am triple vacc'd and I had covid last year, but no doubt my immunity from all these events is waning. My letter for appointment tells me I cannot rearrange more than twice, and I'm already on one strike, so I'm not keen to miss it unless I have to.

[dealtn]

This is interesting - there's a lot of people not showing positive on lateral flows, even if they probably have it. I think I was probably one last week - SWMBO was positive and had it quite badly, I had similar but milder symptoms - sore throat, tiredness etc - but didn't have a clear positive on any of my tests (although I wasn't testing every day). Not clear whether it's an effect of a primed immune system responding faster or something about omicron biology - less in the nose etc - that makes it somewhat evasive of testing.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/arch ... te/661242/

This is consistent with my own experience. I've been ill twice now with what I think was Covid yet during both illnesses I returned negative test results throughout.

So there's a possible data point of one, for what it's worth! (Or is it two?)

Quantifying the false negative rate seems near-impossible, I'd have thought.

What makes you think you are more of an expert at identifying Covid than a test? There are plenty of other "nasties" out there to catch with similar symptoms?

[servodude]

My letter for appointment tells me I cannot rearrange more than twice, and I'm already on one strike, so I'm not keen to miss it unless I have to.

This policy was brought to you by the Department of Unintended Consequences

[Lootman]

This is interesting - there's a lot of people not showing positive on lateral flows, even if they probably have it. I think I was probably one last week - SWMBO was positive and had it quite badly, I had similar but milder symptoms - sore throat, tiredness etc - but didn't have a clear positive on any of my tests (although I wasn't testing every day). Not clear whether it's an effect of a primed immune system responding faster or something about omicron biology - less in the nose etc - that makes it somewhat evasive of testing.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/arch ... te/661242/

This is consistent with my own experience. I've been ill twice now with what I think was Covid yet during both illnesses I returned negative test results throughout.

So there's a possible data point of one, for what it's worth! (Or is it two?)

Quantifying the false negative rate seems near-impossible, I'd have thought.

What makes you think you are more of an expert at identifying Covid than a test? There are plenty of other "nasties" out there to catch with similar symptoms?

Yeah, before Covid I would usually get one cold a year, and then another couple of times during a year I would feel "a bit duff" but then it went away.

And that is the exact same since Covid started. I should not suddenly start attributing every incident of duffness with Covid.

In the earlier days of Covid the symptoms were more distinct, such as lack of smell and taste. But now with a number of variants going around, the symptoms are really non-specific. And of course the prognosis is far better.

To my mind the various types of Covid have now receded into a large group of "nasties" which we normally call a cold or flu. Which is why it has dropped out of the news and why few people are now wearing masks.

[XFool]

This is interesting - there's a lot of people not showing positive on lateral flows, even if they probably have it. I think I was probably one last week - SWMBO was positive and had it quite badly, I had similar but milder symptoms - sore throat, tiredness etc - but didn't have a clear positive on any of my tests (although I wasn't testing every day). Not clear whether it's an effect of a primed immune system responding faster or something about omicron biology - less in the nose etc - that makes it somewhat evasive of testing.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/arch ... te/661242/

Oh dear!

I've just helped a friend of mine with a LF test which was negative. She has something: tickly cough, aching bones, loss of appetite, feels bad.

As the LFT was negative she is going ahead with a hospital appointment.

[pje16]

Last week my brother had pretty much all the typical Covid systems and tested every day - ALL were negative
Have they stopped working on the latest strain?
PS His LFT kits were new as sister-in-law brings them home from work

[XFool]

Worth keeping in mind:

Long COVID Could Be a ‘Mass Deterioration Event’

The Atlantic

A tidal wave of chronic illness could leave millions of people incrementally worse off.

[pje16]

Worth keeping in mind:

Long COVID Could Be a ‘Mass Deterioration Event’

The Atlantic

A tidal wave of chronic illness could leave millions of people incrementally worse off.

Worse off, hardly
the article, like many, is misleading
"one that leaves tens of millions of Americans feeling somewhat worse off than they were before, not so sick that they can’t hold down a job or need medical attention, but also not quite back to baseline."
Incremetal indeed

[Lootman]

feeling somewhat worse off than they were before, not so sick that they can’t hold down a job or need medical attention, but also not quite back to baseline."

Incremental indeed

So a bit like getting older then?

If I were advocating to take more measures against "Short Covid", and I was losing that debate, then I would probably invoke a "Long Covid" as well.

[pje16]

So a bit like getting older then?

I just happened to watch The Curious Case of Benjamin Button last night
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Curious-Case-B ... B00ET2FS66
(odd I didn't thave to pay for it)

[Julian]

Last week my brother had pretty much all the typical Covid systems and tested every day - ALL were negative
Have they stopped working on the latest strain?
PS His LFT kits were new as sister-in-law brings them home from work

I have been wondering whether that might be a possibility at least for LFTs from some manufacturers. The tests work by having a dyed antibody on the test strip that is designed to bind with an antigen (a SARS-CoV2 viral protein) if present in the test sample so perhaps it is at least feasible that continued antigenic drift might make that binding more troublesome. The capture antibodies on the test line are also I think designed to bind to the SARS-CoV2 antigen so binding failures there could also present a positive test result showing up.

I can't dig up a reference but when Omicron was first discovered the FDA re-validated a lot of test kits and while most of them were still OK I am pretty sure that I read that a test from at least one manufacturer was withdrawn because it was no longer deemed reliable enough in the face of the initial Omicron strain. Further antigenic drift in the areas bound by the critical test-kit antibodies - the mobile ones that wick up along the test strip along with the test sample and also the ones called capture antibodies anchored to the test strip where the "T" line is - might perhaps be making this problem more widespread as in affecting kits from other manufacturers. And perhaps even a weakening of the binding affinity rather than a total failure to bind, if coupled with lower viral loads in the first place, might together be causing problems in enough dyed antigen being captured at the "T" line to give a readable result.

I would hope that this is being looked at carefully but as noted elsewhere Covid-19 seems to have dropped out of the news almost entirely recently so the media is no longer watching every single twist and turn and I'm not sure that this is a level of detail that would get onto the mainstream news agenda right now even if some test kits were becoming inaccurate simply because the journalistic focus has shifted on to other topics.

- Julian

[XFool]

feeling somewhat worse off than they were before, not so sick that they can’t hold down a job or need medical attention, but also not quite back to baseline."

Incremental indeed

So a bit like getting older then?

Very likely!

If I were advocating to take more measures against "Short Covid", and I was losing that debate, then I would probably invoke a "Long Covid" as well.

Yes. There is always a pseudo-explanation for any occasion and always someone who can sniff them out, like a dog finds a truffle.

[redsturgeon]

About this stage we always get the " I don't really believe long covid is a real thing" brigade.

Not quite as extreme as the "I don't believe Covid is a real thing" or the "herd immunity will be reached by Autumn (2020)" brigade so I suppose we are making progress.

John

[servodude]

About this stage we always get the " I don't really believe long covid is a real thing" brigade.

Not quite as extreme as the "I don't believe Covid is a real thing" or the "herd immunity will be reached by Autumn (2020)" brigade so I suppose we are making progress.

John

Look... there WAS immunity IN the herd; ergo there was "herd immunity"