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Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

The home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
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This is the home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
Hallucigenia
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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#438714

Postby Hallucigenia » August 31st, 2021, 5:03 pm

murraypaul wrote:I think it is reasonable to assume that there have been efforts to increase ventilation capacity since last October.


It's not that simple, as they found with the Nightingales, even if you can roll out the kit, you can't just click-&-collect experienced critical care nurses. And one of the problems with running ICUs on a war footing for 18 months is that you're losing staff to burnout - eg this study from King's reported "709 healthcare workers, from nine ICUs in England, completed anonymous web-based surveys in June and July 2020 comprising 291 (41 per cent) doctors, 344 (49 per cent) nurses, and 74 (10 per cent) other healthcare staff. Over half (59 per cent) reported good wellbeing, however 45 per cent met the threshold for probable clinical significance for at least one of: severe depression (6 per cent), PTSD (40 per cent), severe anxiety (11 per cent) or problem drinking (7 per cent) in July 2020

And this is translating into time off - in May 2021, NHS absences due to mental health issues were up 55% yoy :

"There is a real sense of fear about a mass exodus of health professionals leaving because of their own ill health – many say they simply can’t face working in the health service anymore...A survey of Royal College of Nursing members last month revealed that 36 per cent were thinking of leaving the profession – up from 27 per cent last year... a lack of intensive care beds meaning routine surgeries, including for some cancer patients, have been cancelled across England."

This is the Health Committee's report on burnout in the NHS :
https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/c ... 2/2202.htm

And this is how it looks like at an individual level :
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/s ... s-24357280

Now obviously you can take individual stories with a pinch of salt, but there does seem to be a pattern emerging. And that could compromise the ability of the NHS to " increase ventilation capacity since last October" - they just need a break.

9873210
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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#438721

Postby 9873210 » August 31st, 2021, 5:58 pm

Hallucigenia wrote:And as I keep saying, the number to focus on is numbers on ventilators,

...

As of last Thursday, there were 982 on ventilation with Covid-19, the same as 30 October,


October 2020 was half a pandemic ago. AIUI standards of care have evolved.

The standard now is to use other methods, i.e. high-flow nasal cannula, to avoid ventilators if possible. On average people on ventilators today are probably sicker than those on ventilators in September 2020. So while it's a something to watch the numbers might not be directly comparable.

Another thing to watch for is diverting liquid oxygen (LOX) from water treatment plants and rocket launches (Florida) or requisitioning essentially the entire national production of LOX* from steel plants and paper mills for medical use (India).

*over 9000 tonne per day.

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#438751

Postby redsturgeon » August 31st, 2021, 8:22 pm

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JhRb5hnTseU

Interesting latest video from John Campbell suggesting a significant change in direction to the government and scientific thinking.

Basically saying that herd immunity via the vaccine alone will not happen and practically everyone will be exposed to the infection.

Germany is to stop routine testing in October, other countries will probably follow suit and there really is no need to test in the community any more since the only significant numbers will be hospitalisations and deaths.

Confirms important of vaccination although it does not stop transmission, it does very significantly lower hospitalisations and deaths.

John

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#438762

Postby 1nvest » August 31st, 2021, 9:36 pm

redsturgeon wrote:Confirms important of vaccination although it does not stop transmission, it does very significantly lower hospitalisations and deaths.

Subjectively my younger son mid 20's mates and himself have had Covid whilst unvaccinated without issues (mild to flu like symptoms), of the relatively few that had had the vaccine one was admitted to hospital with heart conditions attributed to the vaccine.

When my son had Covid we took no precautions at home, continued sharing the same rooms, no masks etc. Neither myself (double Oxford) nor my elder son (double Pfizer) endured any symptoms/contraction, solely the inconvenience of having to isolate (that no longer is applicable).

Unfortunately for a small number it is critical, for many its a non-issue. The initial fear is that you may be in the small set group, once you've been exposed or contracted it with mild if any symptoms then fear fades.

Much of UK deaths were driven by Johnson. Exporting patients with Covid from NHS beds into Care home beds where care home staff were awarded little/no protections, in many cases having to make their own PPE etc. My own 90 year old mother contracted Covid whilst in hospital following a hip fracture op back in January. She remained on the same ward, not segregated etc. for four days before being moved to a isolation care home. The absence of family visits seemingly had the ward in a very casual mode of operation without external eyes visibility. For those in the community that did try to isolate the absence of reliable home delivery of goods/medicines etc. made that unrealistic. Simple things that a 'government' should have governed far better, instead of its usual practices of managing crises of its own making. In Ireland movement was restricted, checkpoints where you had to have registered reason/time of movements. Here many moved around freely unchecked. Many had no other option, not being paid £2500/month as were some/many selectively paid whilst others received no financial assistance at all and as such had no other choice other than to carry on working as usual no matter how well or unwell they might have felt.

Fundamentally either way Parliament is incompetent, gave sovereignty away, didn't want it back. Rightfully should be retired as a non viable liability.

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#438764

Postby jfgw » August 31st, 2021, 10:09 pm

redsturgeon wrote:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JhRb5hnTseU

Interesting latest video from John Campbell...


I have just watched it myself, it does not come as a surprise. Technically, we will reach herd immunity each year (like with flu), then R will rise above 1 again the next season.

Our immune systems will become accustomed to SARS-CoV-2 so we will become less ill. Also, human behaviour favours milder variants — we stay away from other people if our symptoms are bad (and we stay away from people who are ill) — so we should end up with something less deadly. Just another cold to add to the others, maybe. It is, however, worrying for people who are immunocompromised or who cannot have the jab.

Herd immunity has been evident with the original and alpha variants but reinfections and breakthrough infections have resulted in a lower viral load. This has resulted in a lower R0, hence lower herd immunity threshold. With the delta variant, the viral load is as high, although a reduced period of infectiousness also affects R0. An increased rate of asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic infections will tend to increase R0, however, as infectious people will continue to socialise.

Current vaccines were not developed to fight the delta variant and this is one area where I believe immunity could be increased. If a more effective vaccine (or a combination) plus repeated infection reduces viral load, this could reduce R0.

Looking at hospital bed occupancy, this is not a time to become complacent.

It is possible that Australia and Vietnam will wish that they had let the original and alpha variants spread more. They now have a much bigger threat to deal with (more infectious and double the death rate) and most people are unvaccinated. While we hope that it will not be the case, death rates could get very high.

New Zealand may suppress it but they need to bring out the Gatling-syringes and jab fast (vaccine supplies permitting).

Best case? It dies out. Realistically? another cold virus.

Worst case? The Omega Variant sweeps across the world leaving few survivors. (There would probably be a lot more breeding pairs left in the UK than in the more "successful" but Covid-naive countries like Australia if this happened tomorrow).


Julian F. G. W.

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#438795

Postby servodude » September 1st, 2021, 7:59 am

jfgw wrote:It is possible that Australia and Vietnam will wish that they had let the original and alpha variants spread more. They now have a much bigger threat to deal with (more infectious and double the death rate) and most people are unvaccinated. While we hope that it will not be the case, death rates could get very high.

New Zealand may suppress it but they need to bring out the Gatling-syringes and jab fast (vaccine supplies permitting).

Best case? It dies out. Realistically? another cold virus.

Worst case? The Omega Variant sweeps across the world leaving few survivors. (There would probably be a lot more breeding pairs left in the UK than in the more "successful" but Covid-naive countries like Australia if this happened tomorrow).


I had pondered this myself (it's got some appeal as a modern analogue of cowpox v smallpox)
Doesn't presently look like it though

If we can be excused a (brief) statistic diversion in this thread (all from https://covidlive.com.au/)
- the death rate (deaths/confirmed cases) in the current wave in Australia is a tenth of what it was in the second wave
- looking at June 1st to October 1st 2020 vs June 1st to Sept 1st 2021
- with slightly more cases already in the current wave - even with the bigger threat double death rate delta

So I really think there's probably more vaccine about (or it's in play in the necessary places) than might originally have been supposed at the headline over 16 figures (59.5% one/35.5% two jabs)
- and with doses going in arms at just shy of 2 million a week that should only improve from here (up to whatever threshold the Karen effect kicks in at)

But the point about exposure being "helpful" once the virus is not "novel" is a very salient one

Perhaps there's an argument for sourcing some original SARS-COV2 to intentionally release so that it infects and exercises the immune systems of the vaccinated? but given the history of introduced releases in OZ I'm not sure even the LNP would go for that ?!

- sd

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#438822

Postby Hallucigenia » September 1st, 2021, 10:15 am

9873210 wrote:The standard now is to use other methods, i.e. high-flow nasal cannula, to avoid ventilators if possible. On average people on ventilators today are probably sicker than those on ventilators in September 2020. So while it's a something to watch the numbers might not be directly comparable.


Of course, but numbers still matter in terms of capacity - and eg delta seems to hospitalise a greater proportion (other factors like vaccination being the same). If you look at the headline numbers, we're seeing roughly 35k cases per day, translating to 1k admitted to hospital per day, 7k in hospital at any one time, and 1k on ventilation. At the end of October there were about 15k cases per day, 1.5k entering hospital per day, 12k in hospital and 1k on ventilation.

So it was 10% of cases ending up in hospital, now it's 3% - the jabs are keeping people out of hospital. Average hospital stays have gone from 8 days to 7 days, but we've gone from 1 in 12 on ventilation to 1 in 7 today.

And capacity is going to get tested further. Covid cases have exploded in Scotland since the schools went back, doubling in less than a week. This pediatrician in Edinburgh is also reporting a triple whammy of the "usual" rhinovirus (not just a cold, it can cause severe bronchiolitis and other infections of the lungs), RSV hitting earlier than usual and with much greater force as it's gone away for 18 months so there's many more that haven't been exposed to it, and the various effects of spiraling Covid - not just the direct hospitalisations but the indirect effects of staff shortages from self-isolating and patients in for other things still needing to be isolated with incidental Covid.

Kids may not get Covid badly - an unvaccinated child is at about the same risk of dying as a vaccinated 40yo - but they're great at spreading it around to people at more risk. We need jabs for 12+ year olds, we need masks in schools, we need air filtration/ventilation, we need better protocols for treating RSV (and ultimately a RSV vaccine). They won't magicly fix things, but they're more layers of Swiss cheese to add to the defence.

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#438829

Postby 9873210 » September 1st, 2021, 10:34 am

servodude wrote:
Perhaps there's an argument for sourcing some original SARS-COV2 to intentionally release so that it infects and exercises the immune systems of the vaccinated? but given the history of introduced releases in OZ I'm not sure even the LNP would go for that ?!



Delta out competes the original A.1 virus by quite a large factor. The only way to a meaningful number infections with A.1 virus when delta is circulating is to continually dump large quantities of A.1. You have to deliberately infect people with A.1 faster than delta is. This is going to overwhelm your healthcare system faster than doing nothing. Any difference in lethality between the two variants is far too small to make a difference.

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#438839

Postby nicodemusboffin » September 1st, 2021, 10:53 am

From the BBC Coronavirus Live Reporting this morning (my bold). I find if very strange that the mass vaccination programme is not at least mentioned as a possible cause of the unexplained excess deaths. (I speak as someone who is - happily - vaccinated myself, but very unsure if the risk/rewards of vaccination are in favour of vaccination for my two teenage sons.)

"The ONS has just reported that the week ending 20 August saw nearly 1,200 more deaths registered in the UK than we would expect at this time of year.

Just over half of that number - about 650 deaths - involved Covid, little changed on last week.

But that means we’re seeing around 500 more deaths than we’d expect at this time of year that are caused by something else.

That pattern has held for the past seven weeks – above average levels of death that aren’t obviously explained by Covid.

Is it the health appointments that were missed last year, the pressure on ambulance services seeing high demand, other infections doing the rounds right now or something else?"

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#438842

Postby jfgw » September 1st, 2021, 10:58 am

"Australia aims to 'live with virus' instead of eliminating it"

"We have thrown everything at this, but it is now clear to us that we are not going to drive these numbers down, they are instead going to increase,"

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/covid-19-cases-rise-australias-victoria-lockdown-extension-looms-2021-09-01/


Julian F. G. W.

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#438843

Postby servodude » September 1st, 2021, 11:00 am

9873210 wrote:
servodude wrote:
Perhaps there's an argument for sourcing some original SARS-COV2 to intentionally release so that it infects and exercises the immune systems of the vaccinated? but given the history of introduced releases in OZ I'm not sure even the LNP would go for that ?!



Delta out competes the original A.1 virus by quite a large factor. The only way to a meaningful number infections with A.1 virus when delta is circulating is to continually dump large quantities of A.1. You have to deliberately infect people with A.1 faster than delta is. This is going to overwhelm your healthcare system faster than doing nothing. Any difference in lethality between the two variants is far too small to make a difference.


Even if everyone (willing and able) was vaccinated against it?
Which was the proposal in my (albeit) abstract thought experiment given the suggestion of exposure thereto being an exercise of the immune system

-sd

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#438848

Postby pje16 » September 1st, 2021, 11:07 am

I had quite a bad cold last week - seemed to last a day or two longer than the normal cold
sore throat, runny nose, (could still smell the vinegar bottle :lol: )
I know my own body, it was a cold NOT Covid

What shocked me, was how the hell did I catch it?
I only go out to the shops once a week and help at a foodbank on Saturday mornings (the same behaviour since March 2020)
and I wear a mask all the time at those places, so does everyone else
I saw no-one who even had a sniffle, so was very surprised at being infected
More to the point, it made me think how easily one can catch Covid, despite all the precautions.

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#438850

Postby servodude » September 1st, 2021, 11:11 am

jfgw wrote:"Australia aims to 'live with virus' instead of eliminating it"

"We have thrown everything at this, but it is now clear to us that we are not going to drive these numbers down, they are instead going to increase,"

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/covid-19-cases-rise-australias-victoria-lockdown-extension-looms-2021-09-01/


Julian F. G. W.


Dan's has had the rug pulled from under him by the actions of Gladys to the north - who, let's be fair, didn't even try
If Dan had taken the same approach, as she has, last year we'd have had the "Melbourne Variant" escape globally before the "Kent Variant"
- as it stands now they're (VIC) at 2 deaths today with an ongoing significant vaccine uptake rate (from 35% on second doses at present)
- I guess (and I believe) they were complacent; but the pubs were open, the concerts and arts festivals were on, so not that many cared to roll up their sleeves until it became "real" for then
It's real now - so as a bonus I can stop the chicken little act at work ;)
-sd

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#438858

Postby Hallucigenia » September 1st, 2021, 11:26 am

nicodemusboffin wrote:From the BBC Coronavirus Live Reporting this morning (my bold). I find if very strange that the mass vaccination programme is not at least mentioned as a possible cause of the unexplained excess deaths. (I speak as someone who is - happily - vaccinated myself, but very unsure if the risk/rewards of vaccination are in favour of vaccination for my two teenage sons.)

"The ONS has just reported that the week ending 20 August saw nearly 1,200 more deaths registered in the UK than we would expect at this time of year.

Just over half of that number - about 650 deaths - involved Covid, little changed on last week.

But that means we’re seeing around 500 more deaths than we’d expect at this time of year that are caused by something else.

That pattern has held for the past seven weeks – above average levels of death that aren’t obviously explained by Covid.

Is it the health appointments that were missed last year, the pressure on ambulance services seeing high demand, other infections doing the rounds right now or something else?"


On just about every risk factor, you are more likely to get X from Covid infection than vaccination, even when young. And the combination of delta being one of the most transmissible disease we know, its widespread presence, and government policy seemingly to be that every child should be infected, means they will get infected.

As for the excess deaths - we do have controls in the form of places like Australia, which has also seen a spike in excess deaths despite having low levels of vaccination.

https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/healt ... 0-may-2021

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#438861

Postby servodude » September 1st, 2021, 11:34 am

nicodemusboffin wrote:
Is it the health appointments that were missed last year, the pressure on ambulance services seeing high demand, other infections doing the rounds right now or something else?"


Probably.. :)

And the hospitals/NHS not being built to run with the headroom that the current COVID demand consumes

And folk being wary of going out at all/to the doc/to the hospital because the responsibility for their safety has been put squarely on their shoulders alone - and it's normally safer at home

There was a lot of talk about "collateral damage" in the early days of the pandemic; realistically though it's about now that we will start to see it (as resources are strained, but activity isn't)

-sd

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#438879

Postby nicodemusboffin » September 1st, 2021, 12:03 pm

Hallucigenia wrote:
nicodemusboffin wrote:From the BBC Coronavirus Live Reporting this morning (my bold). I find if very strange that the mass vaccination programme is not at least mentioned as a possible cause of the unexplained excess deaths. (I speak as someone who is - happily - vaccinated myself, but very unsure if the risk/rewards of vaccination are in favour of vaccination for my two teenage sons.)

"The ONS has just reported that the week ending 20 August saw nearly 1,200 more deaths registered in the UK than we would expect at this time of year.

Just over half of that number - about 650 deaths - involved Covid, little changed on last week.

But that means we’re seeing around 500 more deaths than we’d expect at this time of year that are caused by something else.

That pattern has held for the past seven weeks – above average levels of death that aren’t obviously explained by Covid.

Is it the health appointments that were missed last year, the pressure on ambulance services seeing high demand, other infections doing the rounds right now or something else?"


On just about every risk factor, you are more likely to get X from Covid infection than vaccination, even when young. And the combination of delta being one of the most transmissible disease we know, its widespread presence, and government policy seemingly to be that every child should be infected, means they will get infected.

As for the excess deaths - we do have controls in the form of places like Australia, which has also seen a spike in excess deaths despite having low levels of vaccination.

https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/healt ... 0-may-2021


Not sure how reassuring I find the fact that Australia has also suffered excess non-Covid related deaths, given that it has already administered over 19 million vaccine doses, and presumably hasn't had the missed health appointments, pressure on ambulance services, etc, experienced here.
https://www.health.gov.au/initiatives-a ... ne-rollout

servodude
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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#438916

Postby servodude » September 1st, 2021, 1:13 pm

nicodemusboffin wrote:
Hallucigenia wrote:
nicodemusboffin wrote:From the BBC Coronavirus Live Reporting this morning (my bold). I find if very strange that the mass vaccination programme is not at least mentioned as a possible cause of the unexplained excess deaths. (I speak as someone who is - happily - vaccinated myself, but very unsure if the risk/rewards of vaccination are in favour of vaccination for my two teenage sons.)

"The ONS has just reported that the week ending 20 August saw nearly 1,200 more deaths registered in the UK than we would expect at this time of year.

Just over half of that number - about 650 deaths - involved Covid, little changed on last week.

But that means we’re seeing around 500 more deaths than we’d expect at this time of year that are caused by something else.

That pattern has held for the past seven weeks – above average levels of death that aren’t obviously explained by Covid.

Is it the health appointments that were missed last year, the pressure on ambulance services seeing high demand, other infections doing the rounds right now or something else?"


On just about every risk factor, you are more likely to get X from Covid infection than vaccination, even when young. And the combination of delta being one of the most transmissible disease we know, its widespread presence, and government policy seemingly to be that every child should be infected, means they will get infected.

As for the excess deaths - we do have controls in the form of places like Australia, which has also seen a spike in excess deaths despite having low levels of vaccination.

https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/healt ... 0-may-2021


Not sure how reassuring I find the fact that Australia has also suffered excess non-Covid related deaths, given that it has already administered over 19 million vaccine doses, and presumably hasn't had the missed health appointments, pressure on ambulance services, etc, experienced here.
https://www.health.gov.au/initiatives-a ... ne-rollout


If you think that the medical services in Australia have been completely unaffected by COVID up to this point you'd be quite mistaken:
- at a minimum there's been an increase in reluctance to attend for what might be perceived to be minor conditions
I know from experience that a lot of sleep study capacity over the past 18mths was lost to COVID "readiness" (there's not much between a biLevelCPAP and an NIV so they were an easy target) so you'd expect an increase in heart attacks and stroke just from that

If you're trying to pin the Australian excess deaths on vaccines that would imply that their tracking of side effects was a bit lacking
- and that's far from the truth
- it wasn't that long ago that one could accurately point out that the AZ vaccine HAD killed more in OZ this year than COVID (because they're paying such close attention to it, and reporting it)

- sd

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#438927

Postby nicodemusboffin » September 1st, 2021, 1:44 pm

servodude wrote:
nicodemusboffin wrote:
Hallucigenia wrote:
On just about every risk factor, you are more likely to get X from Covid infection than vaccination, even when young. And the combination of delta being one of the most transmissible disease we know, its widespread presence, and government policy seemingly to be that every child should be infected, means they will get infected.

As for the excess deaths - we do have controls in the form of places like Australia, which has also seen a spike in excess deaths despite having low levels of vaccination.

https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/healt ... 0-may-2021


Not sure how reassuring I find the fact that Australia has also suffered excess non-Covid related deaths, given that it has already administered over 19 million vaccine doses, and presumably hasn't had the missed health appointments, pressure on ambulance services, etc, experienced here.
https://www.health.gov.au/initiatives-a ... ne-rollout


If you think that the medical services in Australia have been completely unaffected by COVID up to this point you'd be quite mistaken:
- at a minimum there's been an increase in reluctance to attend for what might be perceived to be minor conditions
I know from experience that a lot of sleep study capacity over the past 18mths was lost to COVID "readiness" (there's not much between a biLevelCPAP and an NIV so they were an easy target) so you'd expect an increase in heart attacks and stroke just from that

If you're trying to pin the Australian excess deaths on vaccines that would imply that their tracking of side effects was a bit lacking
- and that's far from the truth
- it wasn't that long ago that one could accurately point out that the AZ vaccine HAD killed more in OZ this year than COVID (because they're paying such close attention to it, and reporting it)

- sd

I'm not trying to pin Australian excess deaths on vaccines, I'm asking why the media (or at least the BBC in the example above) aren't even mentioning vaccines as a possible explanation for non-covid excess deaths, given that one of the huge medical changes that's happened over the last few months is vaccination. There may be a good explanation why vaccines can't be implicated in the increase - but unfortunately I'm yet to hear it.

servodude
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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#438936

Postby servodude » September 1st, 2021, 2:05 pm

nicodemusboffin wrote:I'm not trying to pin Australian excess deaths on vaccines, I'm asking why the media (or at least the BBC in the example above) aren't even mentioning vaccines as a possible explanation for non-covid excess deaths, given that one of the huge medical changes that's happened over the last few months is vaccination. There may be a good explanation why vaccines can't be implicated in the increase - but unfortunately I'm yet to hear it.


The BBC might be downplaying it ?
- perhaps they thought it worth staying out of the vaccine flag/willy waving competition that smelled horrendously of Brexit?!
"I'll have one of your finest OXFORD vaccines Mr Belgian"
"OK Monseur, but I should say that there's a very small risk of a specific clot"
" Pissoff Poirot you're just upset we left - Huzzah!"

- or indeed doing their job because it's not really "news" (This just in "NOTHING to REPORT REGARDS VACCINE" - yeah not a big drawcard eh!?)

However flipping continents... every vaguely possible vaccine related death or serious side effect in Australia has been rigorously and immediately reported, sensationalised and fantasised over
- that's what happens in a place where the pandemic was confined to the "meanwhile overseas" segment of the news
That scaremongering was done so much so that it took a third wave before they started getting their jabs at a rate that even the UK never reached

So here's the nuanced bit...
YES absolutely there have been people that have died because of the vaccines - they're not the mystery
- but blaming them for "excess deaths" at a population level? you might as well blame wasps (or "European Wasps" as they're called in Australia as opposed to the 3cm long Black Flower Wasps https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Austroscolia_soror that really freak me out)

- sd

nicodemusboffin
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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#438946

Postby nicodemusboffin » September 1st, 2021, 2:38 pm

servodude wrote:
nicodemusboffin wrote:I'm not trying to pin Australian excess deaths on vaccines, I'm asking why the media (or at least the BBC in the example above) aren't even mentioning vaccines as a possible explanation for non-covid excess deaths, given that one of the huge medical changes that's happened over the last few months is vaccination. There may be a good explanation why vaccines can't be implicated in the increase - but unfortunately I'm yet to hear it.


The BBC might be downplaying it ?
- perhaps they thought it worth staying out of the vaccine flag/willy waving competition that smelled horrendously of Brexit?!
"I'll have one of your finest OXFORD vaccines Mr Belgian"
"OK Monseur, but I should say that there's a very small risk of a specific clot"
" Pissoff Poirot you're just upset we left - Huzzah!"

- or indeed doing their job because it's not really "news" (This just in "NOTHING to REPORT REGARDS VACCINE" - yeah not a big drawcard eh!?)

However flipping continents... every vaguely possible vaccine related death or serious side effect in Australia has been rigorously and immediately reported, sensationalised and fantasised over
- that's what happens in a place where the pandemic was confined to the "meanwhile overseas" segment of the news
That scaremongering was done so much so that it took a third wave before they started getting their jabs at a rate that even the UK never reached

So here's the nuanced bit...
YES absolutely there have been people that have died because of the vaccines - they're not the mystery
- but blaming them for "excess deaths" at a population level? you might as well blame wasps (or "European Wasps" as they're called in Australia as opposed to the 3cm long Black Flower Wasps https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Austroscolia_soror that really freak me out)

- sd


Sorry again, but your 'nuanced bit' doesn't work, because there hasn't been a huge increase in the number of wasps (or at least that's not what your link says) but there has been a huge increase in vaccination. Believe me, I very much hope that vaccination is not the cause of non-covid excess deaths, but I'm still to hear why it's a possibility that's not even worth considering.


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