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Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

The home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
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This is the home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
Nimrod103
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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#416652

Postby Nimrod103 » June 1st, 2021, 6:52 pm

murraypaul wrote:Just had a text from my GP to book my second (AZ) shot, at what will only be 6 weeks after the first.
Mid 40s male, no relevant medical conditions.
Either they are more aggressively bringing second shots forward, or possibly my local GPs are running out of people to vaccinate.


Or perhaps the supply of vaccines is now more assured than previously?

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#416655

Postby Nimrod103 » June 1st, 2021, 7:00 pm

zico wrote:
Mike4 wrote:
There was/is a youtube doctor whose opinion all along has been it was a lab based virus escape. His views on this aired last summer were censored by youtube and many of his videos deleted, but his opinion was that yes SARS-CoV-2 is the result of experimental "gain of function' work, where abilities of viruses are artificially enhanced. He presented very detailed and well-thought-out evidence for believing this and that they had been infecting primates with it. His opinion is that the escape was very prosaic and accidental. There would have been heavy precautions against escape but humans being humans, not everyone followed the rules to the letter and keeper caught it. They went home without realising and infected their family, and off it went. Or something along those lines seems viable to me anyway.


I don't see how it matters, because whether it came from a Chinese bat-cave or escaped from a Chinese lab, we aren't going to do anything different about it. If people just want to bash China, they should be careful because the Kent virus arose in the UK which is a lot more transmissible than the original Wuhan virus. If the UK had suppressed the Wuhan virus much more effectively, the Kent virus almost certainly wouldn't have developed. (Notably, there are no New Zealand variants causing worldwide problems).

As a side-issue, wasn't the £37 billion on "NHS" Test & Trace supposed to be the way we dealt with new variants of concern? What's happened to Dido Harding? It's all gone very quiet indeed, unless I'm just not looking in the right places for all the Test & Trace good news.


As mentioned several times, there is no evidence the 'Kent' variant originated in Kent. The fact that the original virus started in Wuhan, where there is a research institute investigating, enhancing and creating new viruses, is enough of a smoking gun for me. But it will be impossible to prove because the Chinese will move heaven and earth to prevent the World finding out, because if proven the international consequences for the Chinese would be disastrous.
AIUI the test & trace is now going OK. Most of the money is/will be spent on the PCR testing which remains very expensive indeed. The main drawback AIUI as ever, is that those infected mainly refuse to self isolate, and continue spreading the disease knowingly. 20% compliance was mentioned in a survey about 9 months ago.

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#416657

Postby murraypaul » June 1st, 2021, 7:08 pm

Nimrod103 wrote:
murraypaul wrote:Just had a text from my GP to book my second (AZ) shot, at what will only be 6 weeks after the first.
Mid 40s male, no relevant medical conditions.
Either they are more aggressively bringing second shots forward, or possibly my local GPs are running out of people to vaccinate.


Or perhaps the supply of vaccines is now more assured than previously?


It is just odd because the official guidance is still:

https://www.england.nhs.uk/coronavirus/ ... ose-v2.pdf
Can clinics be scheduled early to vaccinate outside of the interval period?

Clinics should schedule second dose appointments in line with the recommended dosage
intervals – 8-9 weeks (56-63 days) for people in priority cohorts 1-9 and 77-84 days (11-12
weeks) for people in cohorts 10 onwards – unless there are exceptional circumstances.
If, and by exception, there is vaccine at the end of a clinic which may be wasted, sites may
bring forward cohort 10 onwards second doses (as per the Green Book). This should be as
close to 12 weeks as possible and as a minimum at least eight weeks after the first dose as
recommended by JCVI.

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#416663

Postby Gersemi » June 1st, 2021, 7:47 pm

murraypaul wrote:Just had a text from my GP to book my second (AZ) shot, at what will only be 6 weeks after the first.
Mid 40s male, no relevant medical conditions.
Either they are more aggressively bringing second shots forward, or possibly my local GPs are running out of people to vaccinate.


Lucky you. I got a text from my GP to book my second shot. They could only book me in 2 weeks later, which will be 12 weeks after my first shot. Mid 50s. It's a post code lottery as usual.

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#416699

Postby XFool » June 1st, 2021, 10:01 pm

Nimrod103 wrote:
XFool wrote:A fascination:

Do people believe Covid myths?
David Spiegelhalter and Anthony Masters

The Guardian

Misinformation could be causing real harm in the community

"University of Cambridge researchers found in an online survey that about 15% of UK respondents thought it was more reliable than not that “the coronavirus is part of a global effort to enforce mandatory vaccination”, while 9% supported “the new 5G network may be making us more susceptible to the virus”. They found the most important factor linked to resilience to misinformation was numeracy."

You may dismiss these views as dumb, as do I, but surely it is no worse than the WHO (including its British member Daszak) coming back from a closely controlled visit to China. They dismissed all theories about Covid origin except from wild food in a wet market.
Yet now there are strong rumours emanating from scientists and spooks that the virus may indeed have been manufactured in, and escaped from, the Wuhan lab.
It always pays to be sceptical.

And are you being "sceptical" of "these rumours emanating from scientists and spooks"?

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#416709

Postby Mike4 » June 1st, 2021, 10:28 pm

Nimrod103 wrote:As mentioned several times, there is no evidence the 'Kent' variant originated in Kent. The fact that the original virus started in Wuhan,


I can't help but see a conflict in your two statements here.

What firm evidence (as opposed to circumstantial) is there the virus originated in Wuhan, as opposed to first identified there, in the same way there is no evidence the Kent variant originated in kent as opposed to first identified there?

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#416720

Postby Nimrod103 » June 1st, 2021, 11:14 pm

Mike4 wrote:
Nimrod103 wrote:As mentioned several times, there is no evidence the 'Kent' variant originated in Kent. The fact that the original virus started in Wuhan,


I can't help but see a conflict in your two statements here.

What firm evidence (as opposed to circumstantial) is there the virus originated in Wuhan, as opposed to first identified there, in the same way there is no evidence the Kent variant originated in kent as opposed to first identified there?


Because detecting the virus is easy - people get sick and sometimes die, with a set of recognizable symptoms. The disease with these symptoms was first noted in Wuhan.
Quite different for the 'Kent' variant, which causes the same symptoms as every other Covid19 virus, so is indistinguishable from any other variant. Except that is, using the advanced technology that the UK has, which carries out 50% of all the genomic analyses performed in the World. So the 'Kent' virus could have existed in almost any part of the World before the superior UK labs picked it up, in Kent.

No conflict, just logic.

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#416727

Postby servodude » June 1st, 2021, 11:49 pm

Nimrod103 wrote:
Mike4 wrote:
Nimrod103 wrote:As mentioned several times, there is no evidence the 'Kent' variant originated in Kent. The fact that the original virus started in Wuhan,


I can't help but see a conflict in your two statements here.

What firm evidence (as opposed to circumstantial) is there the virus originated in Wuhan, as opposed to first identified there, in the same way there is no evidence the Kent variant originated in kent as opposed to first identified there?


Because detecting the virus is easy - people get sick and sometimes die, with a set of recognizable symptoms. The disease with these symptoms was first noted in Wuhan.
Quite different for the 'Kent' variant, which causes the same symptoms as every other Covid19 virus, so is indistinguishable from any other variant. Except that is, using the advanced technology that the UK has, which carries out 50% of all the genomic analyses performed in the World. So the 'Kent' virus could have existed in almost any part of the World before the superior UK labs picked it up, in Kent.

No conflict, just logic.


Yeah, right! "World's best" genomic testing failed to pick up the emergence of a new variant. ;)

-sd

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#416728

Postby Mike4 » June 1st, 2021, 11:51 pm

Nimrod103 wrote:
Mike4 wrote:
Nimrod103 wrote:As mentioned several times, there is no evidence the 'Kent' variant originated in Kent. The fact that the original virus started in Wuhan,


I can't help but see a conflict in your two statements here.

What firm evidence (as opposed to circumstantial) is there the virus originated in Wuhan, as opposed to first identified there, in the same way there is no evidence the Kent variant originated in kent as opposed to first identified there?


Because detecting the virus is easy - people get sick and sometimes die, with a set of recognizable symptoms. The disease with these symptoms was first noted in Wuhan.
Quite different for the 'Kent' variant, which causes the same symptoms as every other Covid19 virus, so is indistinguishable from any other variant. Except that is, using the advanced technology that the UK has, which carries out 50% of all the genomic analyses performed in the World. So the 'Kent' virus could have existed in almost any part of the World before the superior UK labs picked it up, in Kent.

No conflict, just logic.


Yes, flawed logic.

How do you account for the SARS-CoV-2 found in frozen sewage samples collected in Barcelona in March 2019?

A skool of thought is it started somewhere as yet unknown and was imported to Wuhan following the Military Games, then China unfairly got the blame for being the first place to report it. Much like Spain incorrectly got the blame for Spanish Flu.

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#416735

Postby GrahamPlatt » June 2nd, 2021, 4:59 am

Mike4 wrote:Yes, flawed logic.

How do you account for the SARS-CoV-2 found in frozen sewage samples collected in Barcelona in March 2019?

A skool of thought is it started somewhere as yet unknown and was imported to Wuhan following the Military Games, then China unfairly got the blame for being the first place to report it. Much like Spain incorrectly got the blame for Spanish Flu.


You could also add that the HIV pandemic took decades to be recognised for what it is. Admittedly not quite the same thing, and this was before before PCR become available, but it takes one observant, switched-on and academically leaning individual to have the lightbulb moment, who alerts the rest of us. In the case of Covid it was someone in Wuhan. And within a few weeks of that, the Chinese had published the viral genome (now there’s world-beating for you). Yes, it’s a shame that some petty local officials initially tried to suppress the news, but they have been roundly castigated in and by China.I have read elsewhere some very carefully reasoned arguments - mostly from a molecular biological viewpoint - which rather convinces me that whether or not this virus escaped from the Wuhan Institute of Virology, it was very certainly not released deliberately.

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#416742

Postby Nimrod103 » June 2nd, 2021, 8:23 am

Mike4 wrote:
Nimrod103 wrote:
Mike4 wrote:
I can't help but see a conflict in your two statements here.

What firm evidence (as opposed to circumstantial) is there the virus originated in Wuhan, as opposed to first identified there, in the same way there is no evidence the Kent variant originated in kent as opposed to first identified there?


Because detecting the virus is easy - people get sick and sometimes die, with a set of recognizable symptoms. The disease with these symptoms was first noted in Wuhan.
Quite different for the 'Kent' variant, which causes the same symptoms as every other Covid19 virus, so is indistinguishable from any other variant. Except that is, using the advanced technology that the UK has, which carries out 50% of all the genomic analyses performed in the World. So the 'Kent' virus could have existed in almost any part of the World before the superior UK labs picked it up, in Kent.

No conflict, just logic.


Yes, flawed logic.

How do you account for the SARS-CoV-2 found in frozen sewage samples collected in Barcelona in March 2019?

A skool of thought is it started somewhere as yet unknown and was imported to Wuhan following the Military Games, then China unfairly got the blame for being the first place to report it. Much like Spain incorrectly got the blame for Spanish Flu.


Without more supporting data, that Barcelona sample looks like contamination/misidentification/a Chinese plant. Mistakes do get made in scientific analyses. News about it has certainly gone quiet. If it were real, I think scientists would be jumping up and down by now.
Personally I think that those people who believe Covid did not originate in Wuhan are falling for the biggest and most unlikely conspiracy theory of all, probably promulgated by the Chinese authorities.

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#416744

Postby Nimrod103 » June 2nd, 2021, 8:26 am

servodude wrote:
Nimrod103 wrote:
Mike4 wrote:
I can't help but see a conflict in your two statements here.

What firm evidence (as opposed to circumstantial) is there the virus originated in Wuhan, as opposed to first identified there, in the same way there is no evidence the Kent variant originated in kent as opposed to first identified there?


Because detecting the virus is easy - people get sick and sometimes die, with a set of recognizable symptoms. The disease with these symptoms was first noted in Wuhan.
Quite different for the 'Kent' variant, which causes the same symptoms as every other Covid19 virus, so is indistinguishable from any other variant. Except that is, using the advanced technology that the UK has, which carries out 50% of all the genomic analyses performed in the World. So the 'Kent' virus could have existed in almost any part of the World before the superior UK labs picked it up, in Kent.

No conflict, just logic.


Yeah, right! "World's best" genomic testing failed to pick up the emergence of a new variant. ;)

-sd


But it did pick it up, in the UK. No other country had the genomic testing capability to find it.
How is the return to normality going in Australia by the way?

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#416750

Postby Nimrod103 » June 2nd, 2021, 9:06 am

GrahamPlatt wrote:
Mike4 wrote:Yes, flawed logic.

How do you account for the SARS-CoV-2 found in frozen sewage samples collected in Barcelona in March 2019?

A skool of thought is it started somewhere as yet unknown and was imported to Wuhan following the Military Games, then China unfairly got the blame for being the first place to report it. Much like Spain incorrectly got the blame for Spanish Flu.


You could also add that the HIV pandemic took decades to be recognised for what it is. Admittedly not quite the same thing, and this was before before PCR become available, but it takes one observant, switched-on and academically leaning individual to have the lightbulb moment, who alerts the rest of us. In the case of Covid it was someone in Wuhan. And within a few weeks of that, the Chinese had published the viral genome (now there’s world-beating for you). Yes, it’s a shame that some petty local officials initially tried to suppress the news, but they have been roundly castigated in and by China.I have read elsewhere some very carefully reasoned arguments - mostly from a molecular biological viewpoint - which rather convinces me that whether or not this virus escaped from the Wuhan Institute of Virology, it was very certainly not released deliberately.


Please explain what this molecular biological evidence is that convinces you it could not have been released deliberately?

HIV is of course a very different disease, not contagious except through bodily fluids. It originated in isolated parts of Africa, and took many years to emerge, and many years to be identified for what it is.

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#416758

Postby GrahamPlatt » June 2nd, 2021, 9:53 am

Nimrod103 wrote:Please explain what this molecular biological evidence is that convinces you it could not have been released deliberately?


I am not going to waste my time.

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#416766

Postby Nimrod103 » June 2nd, 2021, 10:23 am

GrahamPlatt wrote:
Nimrod103 wrote:Please explain what this molecular biological evidence is that convinces you it could not have been released deliberately?


I am not going to waste my time.


You have no evidence then?
It just seemed like a non sequiter to jump from molecular biology to the political question of whether a virus was released deliberately by an aggessive totalitarian state.

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#416776

Postby GrahamPlatt » June 2nd, 2021, 10:54 am

Nimrod103 wrote:
GrahamPlatt wrote:
Nimrod103 wrote:Please explain what this molecular biological evidence is that convinces you it could not have been released deliberately?


I am not going to waste my time.


You have no evidence then?
It just seemed like a non sequiter to jump from molecular biology to the political question of whether a virus was released deliberately by an aggessive totalitarian state.


Nimrod,

There are some people you just can’t argue with. Posts passim, you have demonstrated to me that you are one such. The “molecular biological” information I referred to I can’t link to, nor copy-paste for copyright reasons. It is long and detailed and with all due respect (seriously, not denigrating you on this) you probably wouldn’t understand it. And even if you did, you’d like as not refuse to accept it. So, like I said, let’s just leave it at that.

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#416802

Postby gryffron » June 2nd, 2021, 12:00 pm

Nimrod103 wrote: from the outset of this pandemic the most obvious, logical and sensible view about the virus origins is that it came from the Wuhan lab, where research on making new viruses, and enhancing the infectiousness of existing viruses was taking place. It was always incredible, illogical and stupid to claim that the origin of the virus must have been in a wet market a hundred yards away from that lab. Yet the wet market theory was pushed by scientists and politicians alike, and dissenting voices were loudly shouted down.

OTOH: If you want a conspiracy theory, then the question you have to ask is "Who has gained from this?"

Clearly not the Chinese. They've been blamed for starting it. Their vaccine is dirt cheap, so little financial profit to be had. And its performance has not been impressive either, so no kudos for "saving the world".

The clear "winners" have been US pharma companies. Pfizer and Moderna. By an amazing coincidence they had a brand new vaccine tech MRNA, just sat waiting for approval. It has proved to be the most effective vaccine of all, and sold worldwide at huge profit.

And if you wanted to "plant" a virus infection, where better than right outside the virus lab of your greatest rival for global power. They're bound to get the blame. Who's going to even look for any other source?

Gryff

PS. I may or may not actually support this theory. TBH would be more plausible if they'd waited until their tech was approved, and significant production facilities in place. Oh, and you didn't have a looney president who would ignore your lovely vaccine in favour of bleach injections and prayer meetings. But it is far more plausible than the Chinese govt releasing it deliberately.

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#416821

Postby Nimrod103 » June 2nd, 2021, 1:12 pm

gryffron wrote:
Nimrod103 wrote: from the outset of this pandemic the most obvious, logical and sensible view about the virus origins is that it came from the Wuhan lab, where research on making new viruses, and enhancing the infectiousness of existing viruses was taking place. It was always incredible, illogical and stupid to claim that the origin of the virus must have been in a wet market a hundred yards away from that lab. Yet the wet market theory was pushed by scientists and politicians alike, and dissenting voices were loudly shouted down.

OTOH: If you want a conspiracy theory, then the question you have to ask is "Who has gained from this?"

Clearly not the Chinese. They've been blamed for starting it. Their vaccine is dirt cheap, so little financial profit to be had. And its performance has not been impressive either, so no kudos for "saving the world".

The clear "winners" have been US pharma companies. Pfizer and Moderna. By an amazing coincidence they had a brand new vaccine tech MRNA, just sat waiting for approval. It has proved to be the most effective vaccine of all, and sold worldwide at huge profit.

And if you wanted to "plant" a virus infection, where better than right outside the virus lab of your greatest rival for global power. They're bound to get the blame. Who's going to even look for any other source?

Gryff

PS. I may or may not actually support this theory. TBH would be more plausible if they'd waited until their tech was approved, and significant production facilities in place. Oh, and you didn't have a looney president who would ignore your lovely vaccine in favour of bleach injections and prayer meetings. But it is far more plausible than the Chinese govt releasing it deliberately.


That is certainly another theory to be considered. However, one could also ask why the Chinese have such an advanced lab in Wohan doing what IMHO is unbelievably dangerous work because of its possible risks to mankind. AIUI the lab has had Western investment and a some visits from Western scientists. But no lab IMHO can be completely bio-secure, and there were photos taken in the lab before the pandemic circulating in the media, which showed dirty fridge and freezer seals etc indicative of sloppy practice.
Personally I believe it was an accidental leak, but it will be completely impossible to get the necessary information showing Chinese culpability.

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#416826

Postby servodude » June 2nd, 2021, 1:27 pm

Nimrod103 wrote:Personally I believe it was an accidental leak, but it will be completely impossible to get the necessary information showing Chinese culpability.


Just like those guys that bred the worse strain in the south of England and then let it spread. Utter Kents if you ask me!

Hugs
-sd

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#416840

Postby Julian » June 2nd, 2021, 2:29 pm

Nimrod103 wrote:...However, one could also ask why the Chinese have such an advanced lab in Wohan doing what IMHO is unbelievably dangerous work because of its possible risks to mankind. AIUI the lab has had Western investment and a some visits from Western scientists. But no lab IMHO can be completely bio-secure, ...


Issues with bio-security not being up to the job not withstanding is the stuff thought by some to be going on in the Wuhan lab any more "unbelievably dangerous work" than some of the stuff going on in the most secure parts of Porton Down? I'm not trying to troll anyone, it's a genuine question.

Sadly I would be pretty sure that no one here would be in a position to give an authoritative answer to my question. At least in the time when I dealt with Porton Down at a very superficial level it was an extremely secure and secretive site and one needed to have gone through developed vetting (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Security_ ... etting_(DV)) to deal in any meaningful way with people there. I do get the impression that it is quite a lot less "secret squirrel" than it was a few decades ago but I wonder if there is still some really, really nasty stuff being studied in the most secure labs there. If yes then presumably (hopefully!) it is for "let's understand this" and "how would we defend against this?" reasons rather than "let's make a bomb out of this" reasons.

- Julian


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