Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

[XFool]

Ardern’s Covid lockdown finds favour as New Zealand watches Sydney’s Delta disaster

The Guardian

Asked what she would say to people who questioned the need for a level 4 lockdown, the prime minister responded with one word: ‘Australia’

"In contrast, the elimination strategy “has served us extremely well in New Zealand”, epidemiologist and public health prof Michael Baker says. “It results in this long list of huge benefits relative to the alternatives: very low mortality, high economic performance – and also by all the indicators of people returning to a normal life with minimal restrictions.”"

[Clitheroekid]

Ardern’s Covid lockdown finds favour as New Zealand watches Sydney’s Delta disaster

The Guardian

Asked what she would say to people who questioned the need for a level 4 lockdown, the prime minister responded with one word: ‘Australia’

"In contrast, the elimination strategy “has served us extremely well in New Zealand”, epidemiologist and public health prof Michael Baker says. “It results in this long list of huge benefits relative to the alternatives: very low mortality, high economic performance – and also by all the indicators of people returning to a normal life with minimal restrictions.”"

And losing the Lord of the Rings franchise!

[SimonS]

Have we been here before?

When the virus first hit Europe, there was a reluctance to do anything about it (except perhaps watch) because it would obviously impact people adversely. Having dodged the bullet with SARs, MERS and refugee infiltration we just crossed our fingers, again.

Now, as Israel is in the middle, or rather on the rising curve, of a fourth wave of the Delta variant with many of those infected having been vaccinated with 2 shots and a booster, Britain is creating the conditions for massive re-infection.

It does seem that the UK population is inordinately able to bury its head in the sand because of 'populism', the idea that it would be unpopular to take any precautions therefore we shouldn't, led one must say by the media. Some of the tabloids are almost hysterical about 'the foreign holiday' and suggesting that restricting tourism to certain areas is a Brexit plot.Those wretched Greeks, fancy setting fire to their country just to upset British tourists and as for the French, they'd do anything to wreck Brexit.

Some even suggest that it would be undemocratic to take precautions because the British people would vote against it!

Boris seems trapped like a deer in the headlights, not daring to suggest that experience might show that cramming half the population of Britain in Devon, Cornwall and Dorset without masks isn't wise (Weymouth last weekend was ram-packed with tourists, few wearing masks, none exercising social distancing; I was there on business and quite alarmed at the threat it represented, glad to get away) and the news simply makes no mention of the Israeli condition.

No wonder we are seeing the rise of various conspiracy theories about the role of the media, politicians, doctors, the pharmaceutical companies and various Western oligarchs.

Simon

[murraypaul]

Boris seems trapped like a deer in the headlights, not daring to suggest that experience might show that cramming half the population of Britain in Devon, Cornwall and Dorset without masks isn't wise (Weymouth last weekend was ram-packed with tourists, few wearing masks, none exercising social distancing

From the reporting of the Afghanistan debate, it seems that most Tory MPs don't believe in wearing masks either, ignoring their own government's advice. And cramming all the MPs into one small chamber probably wasn't a great idea either.
So I wouldn't expect much from that direction.

[XFool]

Interesting...

Trump team thought UK officials ‘out of their minds’ aiming for herd immunity, book says

The Guardian

Trump officials tried to convince him to take threat seriously and British experts ‘oddly pessimistic’ on defeating virus, says book

[Mike4]

Have we been here before?

When the virus first hit Europe, there was a reluctance to do anything about it (except perhaps watch) because it would obviously impact people adversely. Having dodged the bullet with SARs, MERS and refugee infiltration we just crossed our fingers, again.

Now, as Israel is in the middle, or rather on the rising curve, of a fourth wave of the Delta variant with many of those infected having been vaccinated with 2 shots and a booster, Britain is creating the conditions for massive re-infection.

It does seem that the UK population is inordinately able to bury its head in the sand because of 'populism', the idea that it would be unpopular to take any precautions therefore we shouldn't, led one must say by the media. Some of the tabloids are almost hysterical about 'the foreign holiday' and suggesting that restricting tourism to certain areas is a Brexit plot.Those wretched Greeks, fancy setting fire to their country just to upset British tourists and as for the French, they'd do anything to wreck Brexit.

Some even suggest that it would be undemocratic to take precautions because the British people would vote against it!

Boris seems trapped like a deer in the headlights, not daring to suggest that experience might show that cramming half the population of Britain in Devon, Cornwall and Dorset without masks isn't wise (Weymouth last weekend was ram-packed with tourists, few wearing masks, none exercising social distancing; I was there on business and quite alarmed at the threat it represented, glad to get away) and the news simply makes no mention of the Israeli condition.

No wonder we are seeing the rise of various conspiracy theories about the role of the media, politicians, doctors, the pharmaceutical companies and various Western oligarchs.

Simon

Another of the UK's Greatest Mistakes has ye to surface. The total commitment and reliance on vaccines and failure to support any substantial research on antiviral medicines, AFAIK. Once we get a vaccine-evading variant We're going to be back to square one. I see even Dr John Campbell did a video a few days ago on a recent paper showing hydroxychloroquine does have a valuable therapeutic effect, lowering the death rate by 30% once given in the correct dose.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2uzXHnU ... hnCampbell

[Lootman]

Some even suggest that it would be undemocratic to take precautions because the British people would vote against it!

I would be one of them. Ultimately power rests with the people and parliament's authority is derived from the people. So if a majority wish to take on more risk in return for greater freedoms, then that is what should happen. Anything else would be non-democratic.

[doolally]

Some even suggest that it would be undemocratic to take precautions because the British people would vote against it!

I would be one of them. Ultimately power rests with the people and parliament's authority is derived from the people. So if a majority wish to take on more risk in return for greater freedoms, then that is what should happen. Anything else would be non-democratic.

Lots of problems with that form of democracy. The expert knowledge of individuals is far far less than the expert knowledge that the government can call upon, and they will not be aware of the risks, especially the risks towards other people. The government has to take a view which is best for the collective people, not the individual people.

Given a vote, I'm sure that the majority would want to pay less tax, have more holidays, have a better health service, better social services, better roads, etc etc etc. The government, for all its limitations, knows that we can't have everything, and try to create a least-worst compromise.

doolally

[Julian]

Have we been here before?

When the virus first hit Europe, there was a reluctance to do anything about it (except perhaps watch) because it would obviously impact people adversely. Having dodged the bullet with SARs, MERS and refugee infiltration we just crossed our fingers, again.

Now, as Israel is in the middle, or rather on the rising curve, of a fourth wave of the Delta variant with many of those infected having been vaccinated with 2 shots and a booster, Britain is creating the conditions for massive re-infection.

It does seem that the UK population is inordinately able to bury its head in the sand because of 'populism', the idea that it would be unpopular to take any precautions therefore we shouldn't, led one must say by the media. Some of the tabloids are almost hysterical about 'the foreign holiday' and suggesting that restricting tourism to certain areas is a Brexit plot.Those wretched Greeks, fancy setting fire to their country just to upset British tourists and as for the French, they'd do anything to wreck Brexit.

Some even suggest that it would be undemocratic to take precautions because the British people would vote against it!

Boris seems trapped like a deer in the headlights, not daring to suggest that experience might show that cramming half the population of Britain in Devon, Cornwall and Dorset without masks isn't wise (Weymouth last weekend was ram-packed with tourists, few wearing masks, none exercising social distancing; I was there on business and quite alarmed at the threat it represented, glad to get away) and the news simply makes no mention of the Israeli condition.

No wonder we are seeing the rise of various conspiracy theories about the role of the media, politicians, doctors, the pharmaceutical companies and various Western oligarchs.

Simon

Another of the UK's Greatest Mistakes has ye to surface. The total commitment and reliance on vaccines and failure to support any substantial research on antiviral medicines, AFAIK. Once we get a vaccine-evading variant We're going to be back to square one. I see even Dr John Campbell did a video a few days ago on a recent paper showing hydroxychloroquine does have a valuable therapeutic effect, lowering the death rate by 30% once given in the correct dose.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2uzXHnU ... hnCampbell

I suspect that might be a little bit unfair. I agree about the need to focus not only on vaccines but also on treatments, ideally for all stages of disease severity, but I'm not convinced it's fair to say "failure to support any substantial research on antiviral medicines".

For starters the UK RECOVERY trial (more an umbrella name for multiple trials - https://www.recoverytrial.net/) is funded heavily by various UK government and private funding sources and is said to be " the world’s largest clinical trial for COVID-19 treatments" as of Feb this year [Source: https://www.recoverytrial.net/news/worl ... 0to%20join. ].

Additionally I would be quite surprised if substantial anti-viral work is not being done in the UK but we hear all about vaccines and little about antivirals simply because the clinical trials for the vaccines yielded such strong unambiguous results pretty much at first attempt whereas various potential new antivirals might well have not yielded such obvious indications of success. You yourself mention hydroxychloroquine and there the situation still seems unclear on efficacy re Covid-19, as well as studies showing efficacy there are others that show no efficacy, overall the results certainly seem to be nowhere near as clear as the 90+% efficacy seen from the very first mRNA vaccine phase 3 studies. Also look at something like Remdesivir - again my impression is that signals re efficacy against Covid-19 are marginal at best.

My suspicion is that the UK has by no means been ignoring anti-viral medications, either new ones or repurposing existing medicines (e.g. the RECOVERY trials), it's just that progress has been slower. As a final exhibit for my case I offer this that seems directly relevant - https://researchprofessionalnews.com/rr ... taskforce/

- Julian

[Lootman]

Some even suggest that it would be undemocratic to take precautions because the British people would vote against it!

I would be one of them. Ultimately power rests with the people and parliament's authority is derived from the people. So if a majority wish to take on more risk in return for greater freedoms, then that is what should happen. Anything else would be non-democratic.

Lots of problems with that form of democracy. The expert knowledge of individuals is far far less than the expert knowledge that the government can call upon, and they will not be aware of the risks, especially the risks towards other people. The government has to take a view which is best for the collective people, not the individual people.

Given a vote, I'm sure that the majority would want to pay less tax, have more holidays, have a better health service, better social services, better roads, etc etc etc. The government, for all its limitations, knows that we can't have everything, and try to create a least-worst compromise.

Do you vote? Are you an expert on fiscal policy, foreign policy, education, trade and so on? Of course you are not. But that doesn't mean you do not get a vote. Voting is ultimately based on values not "facts", even assuming that people agreed on the facts.

So yes, an expert can assess certain risks for me. But that expert cannot tell me how my values inform how much risk I am willing to take.

[9873210]

Another of the UK's Greatest Mistakes has ye to surface. The total commitment and reliance on vaccines and failure to support any substantial research on antiviral medicines, AFAIK. Once we get a vaccine-evading variant We're going to be back to square one. I see even Dr John Campbell did a video a few days ago on a recent paper showing hydroxychloroquine does have a valuable therapeutic effect, lowering the death rate by 30% once given in the correct dose.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2uzXHnU ... hnCampbell

August 27 2020 is not a few days ago. In the context of Covid-19 August 24 2020 is not a recent paper.

Therapeutics have not been ignored. Many, including the usual suspects, have been studies and found wanting. Some have been studied and found to be of use in the right circumstances. There has also been significant improvements in the use of treatments like steroids and oxygen that decrease mortality.

[jfgw]

I did a bit of shopping in Sainsbury's, Springfield (near Chelmsford) this morning and had a look at whether customers (not staff) in the aisles were wearing masks.

First count: 79/100 adults were wearing masks.

Second count: 78/100 adults were wearing masks.

Some quick surveys of the checkouts suggested that the proportion of customers wearing masks may have been less than this. However, this is based upon three small samples. If this is the case, it would indicate a positive correlation between mask wearing and the length of time spent in the store.

The two men with masks under their chins were counted as not wearing masks. There were no instances of masks over mouths but under noses.

Children were not included in this survey and I did not count myself.


Julian F. G. W.

[jfgw]

I have been home-testing with the NHS-supplied lateral flow test kits. I have received an Orient Gene test kit, which is a bit different from the old type. There are a few differences, for example, the swab should be left in the buffer for 1 minute after swirling it, it is four drops in the sample well, and the result is valid after 15 minutes. The serial number is also in much bigger text and a lot easier to read. Altogether easier.

Another difference is that the throat is not swabbed — the swab goes up the nose twice. I am wondering if there is a greater risk of a false negative (if it was necessary to swab the tonsils before, why not now?) Any thoughts?


Julian F. G. W.

[XFool]

Covid in Scotland: Record number of cases as NHS faces 'perfect storm'

BBC News

The number of new Covid cases reported in Scotland has hit another record high of 7,113.

"The figure tops the previous high of 6,835 which was recorded on Friday."

[vrdiver]

Covid in Scotland: Record number of cases as NHS faces 'perfect storm'

BBC News

The number of new Covid cases reported in Scotland has hit another record high of 7,113.

"The figure tops the previous high of 6,835 which was recorded on Friday."

Cases going up is completely expected - it's what happens when lockdown restrictions are removed from a population that still contains infected individuals.

Each time I hear these reports, I mentally go "so what?" What does it mean, (other than the potential for a new variant to emerge as the virus population increases, but that's almost irrelevant if we consider the world population and the proportion of UK cases within that total) and what do we do about it?

I'd rather be informed of the hospitalisations per 100,000 of fully vaccinated and of unvaccinated so that I could get a sense of whether Covid19 can be placed alongside flu, or whether to expect another lockdown come the autumn. Currently, I feel like the numbers are being spouted but the politicians are limiting the interpretation of those numbers until they have to do something, at which point no doubt we'll all be following the science again...

VRD

[Clariman]

Each time I hear these reports, I mentally go "so what?" What does it mean, (other than the potential for a new variant to emerge as the virus population increases, but that's almost irrelevant if we consider the world population and the proportion of UK cases within that total) and what do we do about it?

I'd rather be informed of the hospitalisations per 100,000 of fully vaccinated and of unvaccinated so that I could get a sense of whether Covid19 can be placed alongside flu, or whether to expect another lockdown come the autumn. Currently, I feel like the numbers are being spouted but the politicians are limiting the interpretation of those numbers until they have to do something, at which point no doubt we'll all be following the science again...
VRD

The numbers in hospital in Scotland are increasing as are those in intensive care. The number of deaths seems to be falling a little still but I guess that may turn back up soon. BBC Scotland do a good daily summary https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-53511877

[vrdiver]

Each time I hear these reports, I mentally go "so what?" What does it mean, (other than the potential for a new variant to emerge as the virus population increases, but that's almost irrelevant if we consider the world population and the proportion of UK cases within that total) and what do we do about it?

I'd rather be informed of the hospitalisations per 100,000 of fully vaccinated and of unvaccinated so that I could get a sense of whether Covid19 can be placed alongside flu, or whether to expect another lockdown come the autumn. Currently, I feel like the numbers are being spouted but the politicians are limiting the interpretation of those numbers until they have to do something, at which point no doubt we'll all be following the science again...
VRD

The numbers in hospital in Scotland are increasing as are those in intensive care. The number of deaths seems to be falling a little still but I guess that may turn back up soon. BBC Scotland do a good daily summary https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-53511877

Thanks for the link. I scanned it, and it does contain a lot of age-related detail and information about vaccine take-up, but I couldn't see anything that broke down the hospitalisation or deaths data into vaccinated vs unvaccinated incidents per 100,000 or similar. And that's my point; if the vaccines are being successful (which I have every confidence in) then the data really should be highlighting the risks of remaining unvaccinated in a population that is rife with Covid19 and has dropped any measures to stop the viral spread...

In the meantime, I, and I assume others, are left feeling perplexed that the government says it's OK to mingle whilst blathering on about case numbers without doing anything about them...

VRD

[Julian]

Israel seems a particularly interesting country to watch at the moment...

Israel registers record daily coronavirus cases

Country to press ahead with school openings as it encourages all over-12s to get third jab
...

[ Source: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... irus-cases ]

It will be very interesting to see how the booster-shot program affects the cases, hospitalisations, ICU and death numbers. It's also worth noting that Israel did re-introduce some non-pharmaceutical interventions such as mask wearing indoors and limits on gatherings.

- Julian

[Hallucigenia]

I couldn't see anything that broke down the hospitalisation or deaths data into vaccinated vs unvaccinated incidents per 100,000 or similar. And that's my point; if the vaccines are being successful (which I have every confidence in) then the data really should be highlighting the risks of remaining unvaccinated in a population that is rife with Covid19 and has dropped any measures to stop the viral spread...

Apparently the French dashboard does, but here they're worried about numbers on vax/non-vax being misinterpreted - as you say per 100k might help. See eg this thread with the head of the UK dashboard (who's worth a follow if Twitter's your thing).

I think the PHE weekly surveillance report has something like this though?

I, and I assume others, are left feeling perplexed that the government says it's OK to mingle whilst blathering on about case numbers without doing anything about them...

Allegedly, Downing St's internal cost-benefit report reckons they won't take action until they've had the equivalent of 50k deaths per year (ie 137 per week) for several weeks. The usual reactive nonsense, which ends up costing the economy more than if they were proactive. But obviously they can't say that they won't do anything until the peasants are dying in large numbers.

https://inews.co.uk/news/boris-johnson- ... el-1170069

And as I keep saying, the number to focus on is numbers on ventilators, which is the real stress point in the system. As of last Thursday, there were 982 on ventilation with Covid-19, the same as 30 October, the day before lockdown 2 was announced after a couple of weeks on tiers. It gets complicated as capacity obviously varies with region - somewhere like Devon & Cornwall has far fewer ICU beds than London say, and so will struggle more for the same amount of infection, and the West Country is being hit hard at the moment. But anecdotally it seems that somewhere above 1000 is where things really start to get difficult.

[murraypaul]

And as I keep saying, the number to focus on is numbers on ventilators, which is the real stress point in the system. As of last Thursday, there were 982 on ventilation with Covid-19, the same as 30 October, the day before lockdown 2 was announced after a couple of weeks on tiers. It gets complicated as capacity obviously varies with region - somewhere like Devon & Cornwall has far fewer ICU beds than London say, and so will struggle more for the same amount of infection, and the West Country is being hit hard at the moment. But anecdotally it seems that somewhere above 1000 is where things really start to get difficult.

I think it is reasonable to assume that there have been efforts to increase ventilation capacity since last October.

So far, I don't see any reason they would change their approach. Nothing has happened that wasn't obviously going to happen.