The Lemon Fool

Posted: **September 25th, 2021, 8:54 am**

9873210 wrote:
This is related to the argument some people are making that Australia has gained nothing by isolating for over s year. What they have gained (compared to the UK) is facing May 2020 levels of Covid with June 2021 levels of vaccination. If that does not save tens of thousands of lives it would be pretty convincing evidence that the vaccines are not as effective as advertised, and that the introduction of vaccines cannot explain the course of the pandemic in the UK.

Except the data are pretty clear. Here's the data from NHS Scotland:

Posted: **September 25th, 2021, 8:57 am**

Oops sorry, I had forgotten this is a data free zone!

Posted: **September 25th, 2021, 9:28 am**

AWOL wrote:Oops sorry, I had forgotten this is a data free zone!

Could you take it to the appropriate thread and explain what you meant with your graphs w.r.t. the quote you included?
I'm not sure what you meant and I'm intrigued to understand.
-sd

Posted: **September 25th, 2021, 11:30 am**

AWOL wrote:Oops sorry, I had forgotten this is a data free zone!

Moderator Message:
I think we can allow the occasional histogram to clarify a point

Posted: **September 25th, 2021, 11:42 am**

servodude wrote:
AWOL wrote:Oops sorry, I had forgotten this is a data free zone!

Could you take it to the appropriate thread and explain what you meant with your graphs w.r.t. the quote you included?
I'm not sure what you meant and I'm intrigued to understand.
-sd

My understanding is that the graphs show that vaccination works, therefore Australia will have avoided thousands of deaths and hospitalisations by keeping cases down while getting vaccinations up. So anyone who argues that Oz and NZ have been wasting their time in isolating their countries is mistaken.

John

Posted: **September 25th, 2021, 11:51 am**

redsturgeon wrote:
servodude wrote:
AWOL wrote:Oops sorry, I had forgotten this is a data free zone!

Could you take it to the appropriate thread and explain what you meant with your graphs w.r.t. the quote you included?
I'm not sure what you meant and I'm intrigued to understand.
-sd

My understanding is that the graphs show that vaccination works, therefore Australia will have avoided thousands of deaths and hospitalisations by keeping cases down while getting vaccinations up. So anyone who argues that Oz and NZ have been wasting their time in isolating their countries is mistaken.

John

That's what I took it took mean. I was just confused a bit by the word "except" in the text before the graphs... but it wasn't clear to what that was referring

-sd

Posted: **September 25th, 2021, 2:40 pm**

XFool wrote:
nicodemusboffin wrote:
XFool wrote:‘We haven’t finished the job’: JVT reflects on 18 months of Covid

The Guardian

Exclusive: Listen to the experts, says deputy chief medical officer Jonathan Van-Tam, not the celebrities

From the article, JVT says: "That’s my biggest concern, that people just relax and think this is [it], show’s over. Sorted. And I’m not sure where it is yet. It’d be lovely if it is, [if] it just continues to kind of glide along in a nice way. But I’m still cautious that there are more twists and turns with this virus".

But I'm struggling to see what the point is in NOT relaxing, at a time when things are 'glid[ing] along in a nice way'. As someone who's doubly vaccinated I'm either immune to the virus - so can happily relax whatever - or I'm not, in which case if I don't get it now I very probably will in the future. So why not get it now - or at least risk getting it - when the health system is not overloaded...

Covid: Cancer backlog could take a decade to clear

BBC News

It could take more than a decade to clear the cancer-treatment backlog in England, a report suggests.

Covid: Can England avoid 'lockdown lite' this winter?

BBC News

The government's approach in England is clear - it's going to try to rely almost entirely on the vaccines to protect the country from Covid this winter.

Well I'm not waiting ten years to go to the pub! If hospitalisations do rise significantly this winter then I'll stay in, but for now, whilst they are actually falling in England, I think the rational thing is to socialise as much as I want to.

Posted: **September 25th, 2021, 4:13 pm**

Personally I think the rational things to do are to get vaccinated, wear face masks at the shops and in transport, ventilate rooms when mixing, wash hands, and while case numbers are reasonable socialise. For me that includes meeting at pubs and restaurants.

For most people doing the low "cost" mitigations, mixed with living life is optimal. We cannot spend years without seeing people and having fun, that is not living but likewise we should do what we can to protect ourselves, others and the NHS.

That's the way it looks to me. I am not judging anyone else or their circumstances. For example I have relatives undergoing radiotherapy. Isolating to the maximum makes sense for them.

Posted: **September 25th, 2021, 4:36 pm**

AWOL wrote:Personally I think the rational things to do are to get vaccinated, wear face masks at the shops and in transport, ventilate rooms when mixing, wash hands, and while case numbers are reasonable socialise. For me that includes meeting at pubs and restaurants.

For most people doing the low "cost" mitigations, mixed with living life is optimal. We cannot spend years without seeing people and having fun, that is not living but likewise we should do what we can to protect ourselves, others and the NHS.

That's the way it looks to me. I am not judging anyone else or their circumstances. For example I have relatives undergoing radiotherapy. Isolating to the maximum makes sense for them.

Agreed.

Posted: **September 29th, 2021, 10:51 am**

Today, received email from .gov offering me ("People of your age...") booster vaccine appointment. Just a few minutes ago received Text from GP surgery to make appointment via weblink for COVID booster vaccine.

Posted: **September 29th, 2021, 10:55 am**

XFool wrote:("People of your age...")

What a delightful term
bet that gave you a morale boost :roll:

Posted: **September 29th, 2021, 10:58 am**

AWOL wrote:Personally I think the rational things to do are to get vaccinated, wear face masks at the shops and in transport, ventilate rooms when mixing, wash hands, and while case numbers are reasonable socialise. For me that includes meeting at pubs and restaurants.

For most people doing the low "cost" mitigations, mixed with living life is optimal. We cannot spend years without seeing people and having fun, that is not living but likewise we should do what we can to protect ourselves, others and the NHS.

That's the way it looks to me. I am not judging anyone else or their circumstances. For example I have relatives undergoing radiotherapy. Isolating to the maximum makes sense for them.

That's 100% exactly how I'm living my life at the moment. My only point of uncertainty is with the bit I bolded, in particular how do I judge the point at which case numbers can no longer be considered "reasonable" and have reached the point where I should revise my attitude to socialising in some way?

I don't have the virology knowledge to know at what point case numbers (or perhaps more likely growth rates as a leading indicator of numbers soon to be encountered) become high enough to become concerning e.g. with regard to increasing the chances of new mutations occuring to a point where that becomes a real danger. Similarly I don't have the detailed analysis to know at any given time whether the vaccination program has sufficiently weakened the link between cases and hospitalisations and deaths such that a particular case number profile is of no real concern. On the latter, as is often mentioned here and a view I subscribe to, the more critical numbers are the hospitalisations, mechanical ventilation bed occupancy and death numbers but again in terms of detecting a "this is getting worrying" signal I do not have the background about just when the NHS is in danger of overload serious enough to warrant me adjusting my behaviour.

On that "reasonable" threshold in the bolded text I'm left where I have been quite a few times during this pandemic, needing to rely on others' advice. I suspect that if case growth and/or absolute case numbers get to the level where concern is warranted we will probably go through the same cycle as we have seen before. A few experts will start sounding cautionary notes that get relatively little attention. Those cautionary noises with then escalate to a much more significant number of experts sounding much louder alarm bells to the extent that they get fairly extensive mainstream media coverage (e.g. the "we should lock down now" calls in the runup to the late 2019 pre Christmas wave) and if lessons have not been learned the government finally following the expert advice somewhat later than was being called for.

I really hope none of that last paragraph ever becomes a reality. With all of the UK numbers (cases all the way through to deaths) remaining relatively stable and showing no signs that I can detect of taking off yet and the possibility of the booster program and more young people vaccinated potentially giving further positive effects in terms of reducing transmission and further weakening the link between cases and deaths my lay-person's disposition at the moment is to be fairly optimistic and I'm not expecting to have to make any changes to how I socialise at the moment, i.e. not stop or curtail my regular visits to pubs and restaurants and even quite a lot of live music recently but I suppose the run-up from now until Christmas will be the final (I hope) test at least in the UK.

- Julian

Posted: **September 29th, 2021, 11:25 am**

Julian wrote: in particular how do I judge the point at which case numbers can no longer be considered "reasonable" and have reached the point where I should revise my attitude to socialising in some way?

OK here's a personal perspective

Right now I think if you've been vaccinated you should be socialising for "exposure" and I don't think "case" numbers matter on a personal level
- those days are gone ( ...and in the past they shall remain

)
- I reckon it is not a "novel" virus to you/us and you want to exercise your immune system to keep it working (can you imagine how bad everyone's next cold will be?! it'll be a man-flu pandemic)

COVID isn't the flu but if the vaccine efficiency holds up as it appears to, with covid becoming endemic, and with a critical mass of vaccinated people, it's added an equivalent to the flu load on the health system
- on a national/large scale we know that restrictions (NPI) work to restrict spread
- but reintroducing measures will only really make sense if there's unsustainable growth in the use of medical resources (or it looks like there is) - that's not "cases' and I think you'll see a move to much less testing (eventually to it being on a par with checking for your cough being flu)

The health system will eventually expand to cope
- right now though we're in the ringing phase of a step response and trying to stop the oscillations in demand from saturating

- sd

Posted: **September 29th, 2021, 11:37 am**

pje16 wrote:
XFool wrote:("People of your age...")

What a delightful term
bet that gave you a morale boost

Actual wording was:

"We have sent you this email as people in your age group have been identified as a priority for receiving a COVID-19 booster vaccine."

Posted: **September 29th, 2021, 11:41 am**

servodude wrote:(can you imagine how bad everyone's next cold will be?! it'll be a man-flu pandemic)

I had a cold two weeks ago
It lasted about twice as long as my colds normally do, (perhaps because I've not have one for ages)
but i was JUST a sore throat and ruuny nose (not Covid or the diabolical man-flu)
apparently one's doing the rounds in my area (mask wearing has plummeted - just sayin')

Posted: **September 29th, 2021, 8:03 pm**

United Airlines to sack c600 staff who refuse vaccination.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58731340

Good.

V8

Posted: **September 30th, 2021, 11:01 am**

Mask wearing in schools cuts infection.
Well, duh, you might think.

But here's a study https://newatlas.com/health-wellbeing/cdc-mask-mandate-children-schools-coronavirus-effective/?utm_source=New+Atlas+Subscribers&utm_campaign=9b56a635ba-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2021_09_28_08_08&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_65b67362bd-9b56a635ba-92456261

The first study investigated COVID-19 outbreaks in around 1,000 Arizona public schools across the first six weeks of the 2021/22 academic year. J. Mac McCullough, co-author on the study from the University of Arizona, says the early start to Arizona’s school year makes it a perfect bellwether for the rest of the country.

The research found over the first six weeks of the school year 24% of those schools with no mask mandate experienced a COVID-19 outbreak. This compared to just 8% of those schools with universal mask mandates.

V8 (still wears mask in Waitrose)

Posted: **September 30th, 2021, 11:49 am**

88V8 wrote:Mask wearing in schools cuts infection.
Well, duh, you might think.

But here's a study https://newatlas.com/health-wellbeing/cdc-mask-mandate-children-schools-coronavirus-effective/?utm_source=New+Atlas+Subscribers&utm_campaign=9b56a635ba-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2021_09_28_08_08&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_65b67362bd-9b56a635ba-92456261

The first study investigated COVID-19 outbreaks in around 1,000 Arizona public schools across the first six weeks of the 2021/22 academic year. J. Mac McCullough, co-author on the study from the University of Arizona, says the early start to Arizona’s school year makes it a perfect bellwether for the rest of the country.

The research found over the first six weeks of the school year 24% of those schools with no mask mandate experienced a COVID-19 outbreak. This compared to just 8% of those schools with universal mask mandates.

V8 (still wears mask in Waitrose)

Why the "But" when the linked study confirms that ? As it says in its title "CDC studies confirm mask-wearing in schools reduces spread of COVID-19 ".

Posted: **September 30th, 2021, 12:11 pm**

88V8 wrote:Mask wearing in schools cuts infection.
Well, duh, you might think.

It also reduces the effectiveness of education and negatively impacts mental health. So like with most other measures you have trade-offs. If you only want to measure a single thing, or believe it to be absolutely the priority, then its easy to analyse and implement the "correct" solution. If you think it right to assess the complex entirety of what is appropriate for society (and the complexities of how that affects people and sections of that society as distinct from the whole), it won't be surprising to realise it's complicated. Some schools, and countries, will do things differently to others. No doubt with the best of intentions, and beliefs based on the best evidence they have, they are doing the correct thing.

Posted: **September 30th, 2021, 12:55 pm**

ursaminortaur wrote:Why the "But" when the linked study confirms that ?

Lapsus lingus....

dealtn wrote:It also reduces the effectiveness of education and negatively impacts mental health.

Weill it improves my mental health to know that I'm at less risk.
And I doubt that closing schools because of infections is great for education.
It's not exactly a great imposition... from what I remember of my school days many more pupils felt their 'mental health' was impaired by the skirt length and colour of the school uniform....

V8

The Lemon Fool

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