This is my first submission of Covid deaths and admissions in 2022 - with possibly some good news
For England - the same parameters as last Friday, but the the scaling needed a further adjustment to contain the graph
The last published death data was at 7/1/22. The last admissions data was at 9/1/22.
The good news is that the 7-day hospital admissions (i.e. the projected deaths) appears to have peaked.
The 7-day published deaths continue to leap around due to the Christmas and New Year holidays - but I am hopeful that they will settle down over the coming week - and I also hope that they will follow a curve below the projections - but I should stress that this is a hope, currently based on "guessing" at a forward fit using the current poor data.
Now to Scotland - same parameters and scaling as last Friday
The last published death data was at 7/1/22. The last admissions data was at 11/1/22.
The Scottish rise in 7-day hospital admissions has been modest, and it looks like it may also be heading for a peak - but we should get a better idea next week.
The apparent fall in 7-day published deaths may be a result of the public holidays - so I will treat it with a degree of scepticism - although it will take some considerable upward leaps to approach the projected deaths.
So in summary - some encouraging data from both Scotland and England. However are there some interesting differences? Before I raise any hackles I should state that I am most definitely not a nationalist of any persuasion. Our two countries have pursued different Covid policies over the recent period, with Scotland being more restrictive than England - is this noticeable in the data? Given that the population of England is approximately 10 times that of Scotland, we should possibly expect a ratio of 10 in admissions and deaths. Looking at 7-day published deaths, ending on 7/1/22, we have England = 992, and Scotland = 47. Looking at 7-day hospital admissions ending on 11/1/22, we have England 14266, Scotland 992. I will concede that the deaths ratio of 21 to 1 should be taken with a pinch of salt - we need to wait until holiday disturbances are ironed out. However the admissions data is more robust - and its ratio is 14 to 1. There could be several hypotheses on why this should be. Perhaps next week's data will provide more illumination.