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An independent Scotland and COVID19

The home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
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This is the home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
Lootman
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Re: An independent Scotland and COVID19

#336875

Postby Lootman » August 29th, 2020, 11:01 pm

Nimrod103 wrote:
Snorvey wrote:But ..but the SNP said in 2014 (paraphrasing) ' No currency union, no share of UK debts'.

Sounds a great idea. rUK can adopt the EngWalPound, leaving Scotland with the Old Pound, and with all the UK debt.

Put like that, the SNP position is an absurdity. Scotland has to accept its share of the debt, the fair basis of which is the Barnett Formula.

There is nothing remotely "fair" about the Barnett Formula.

It is merely a formal acknowledgement that the Scots are comfortable with a far higher level of public spending than the rest of us. If the Scots had to pay the full freight on their socialist ambitions they would howl and whine like banshees.

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Re: An independent Scotland and COVID19

#336880

Postby Nimrod103 » August 29th, 2020, 11:08 pm

Lootman wrote:
Nimrod103 wrote:
Snorvey wrote:But ..but the SNP said in 2014 (paraphrasing) ' No currency union, no share of UK debts'.

Sounds a great idea. rUK can adopt the EngWalPound, leaving Scotland with the Old Pound, and with all the UK debt.

Put like that, the SNP position is an absurdity. Scotland has to accept its share of the debt, the fair basis of which is the Barnett Formula.

There is nothing remotely "fair" about the Barnett Formula.

It is merely a formal acknowledgement that the Scots are comfortable with a far higher level of public spending than the rest of us. If the Scots had to pay the full freight on their socialist ambitions they would howl and whine like banshees.


AIUI the Barnett Formula is very fair if it assigns the national UK debt on the basis of the proportion of public expenditure which it has (for far too many years) underwritten.

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Re: An independent Scotland and COVID19

#336929

Postby NeilW » August 30th, 2020, 11:19 am

dspp wrote:running up enormous debts

regards, dspp


There are no debts. Largely because they are balanced by equal and opposite assets.

Accounting remember. Everything sums to zero.

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Re: An independent Scotland and COVID19

#336930

Postby NeilW » August 30th, 2020, 11:22 am

Dod101 wrote:I think we should vote for NeilW as the Scottish Chancellor should independence come about.


It certainly will.

Have you bought those "Widowmaker" puts on the Japanese economy yet? After 30 years of that economy not doing what the "common belief" says it will, surely it will be this year.

I'll be very happy to take your money off you. Again.

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Re: An independent Scotland and COVID19

#336931

Postby NeilW » August 30th, 2020, 11:24 am

Nimrod103 wrote:But, but, Scotland's debts, private and national (as their share of the UK debt) are denominated in British Pounds. Why would creditors accept Scottish Pounds at parity?


Not under Lex Monetae. The private debts are irrelevant. Bankruptcy courts sort that out. Public Debts would be redenominated and QE'd out of existence. No point paying interest to rich people for not spending. Better that they spend and give somebody an income.

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Re: An independent Scotland and COVID19

#336937

Postby scrumpyjack » August 30th, 2020, 11:31 am

NeilW wrote:
Nimrod103 wrote:But, but, Scotland's debts, private and national (as their share of the UK debt) are denominated in British Pounds. Why would creditors accept Scottish Pounds at parity?


Not under Lex Monetae. The private debts are irrelevant. Bankruptcy courts sort that out. Public Debts would be redenominated and QE'd out of existence. No point paying interest to rich people for not spending. Better that they spend and give somebody an income.


They tried that in Zimbabwe and Venezuela. Didn't work out too well, nor with the German mark in the thirties. Currency is all about confidence and there would be very little in a Scottish currency where the state had a truly massive deficit. Who would want to hold Scottish drams (or whatever they call it) when they are a one way bet to loss of purchasing power? Yes the state can print away as long as people believe in the currency.

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Re: An independent Scotland and COVID19

#336967

Postby dspp » August 30th, 2020, 2:15 pm

NeilW wrote:
dspp wrote:running up enormous debts

regards, dspp


There are no debts. Largely because they are balanced by equal and opposite assets.

Accounting remember. Everything sums to zero.


I shall remember to tell HMRC that one day.

- dspp

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Re: An independent Scotland and COVID19

#336982

Postby Nimrod103 » August 30th, 2020, 4:03 pm

NeilW wrote:
Nimrod103 wrote:But, but, Scotland's debts, private and national (as their share of the UK debt) are denominated in British Pounds. Why would creditors accept Scottish Pounds at parity?


Not under Lex Monetae. The private debts are irrelevant. Bankruptcy courts sort that out. Public Debts would be redenominated and QE'd out of existence. No point paying interest to rich people for not spending. Better that they spend and give somebody an income.


ISTM that Lex Monetae is just a fancy Latin phrase for 'I will steal from you, unless you can stop me'. The issue will be under whose laws the debts are written. Since debts in the UK are written in UK law, a subordinate Scottish legal system cannot change the denomination of the debts from Sterling to Scottish pounds. Private debts may have to be settled in the bankruptcy courts, but it will be difficult for private Scottish borrowers to ever borrow from foreigners again. Public debts will also be written under UK law,andtherefore cannot be redenominated.

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Re: An independent Scotland and COVID19

#336988

Postby NeilW » August 30th, 2020, 4:26 pm

Nimrod103 wrote:[The issue will be under whose laws the debts are written. Since debts in the UK are written in UK law, a subordinate Scottish legal system cannot change the denomination of the debts from Sterling to Scottish pounds. Private debts may have to be settled in the bankruptcy courts, but it will be difficult for private Scottish borrowers to ever borrow from foreigners again. Public debts will also be written under UK law,andtherefore cannot be redenominated.


It wouldn't be subordinate under Scottish independence. Necessarily as part of the "these are your debts" they would have to be reallocated under the Scottish legal system or the Scottish government would obviously refuse to accept them - since having sovereign debt in a foreign currency would mean you are not independent. See Greece for details.

Private debts may have to be settled in the bankruptcy courts, but it will be difficult for private Scottish borrowers to ever borrow from foreigners again.


That's hardly relevant given that Scotland would have its own money at that point. The enterprise would be re-floated in the local currency and a lesson would be learned - don't borrow in a denomination unless you have the income in the denomination to pay it back.

The notion that you would "never borrow again" is of course complete nonsense. The finance system lends money to people where operations have previously failed all the time.
Last edited by NeilW on August 30th, 2020, 4:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: An independent Scotland and COVID19

#336989

Postby NeilW » August 30th, 2020, 4:34 pm

scrumpyjack wrote:there would be very little in a Scottish currency where the state had a truly massive deficit. Who would want to hold Scottish drams


How can you get a "massive deficit" if nobody is holding the Scottish currency? That would be an accounting impossibility wouldn't it. Draw up a balance sheet and you'll see why.

Toto has pulled back the curtain, and furlough pay revealed the man therein. The old Wizard of Oz routine no longer holds any away.

P.S. Ideally you don't want anybody holding your currency. You want them to spend it as soon as they get it. That way more people get an income, and more transactions happen. Necessarily as a result of the mathematics if everybody spends the currency and nobody holds it, and the tax rate is more than zero then taxation will exactly match the initial spend almost straight away. That's a simple geometric progression your average 15 year old can do.

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Re: An independent Scotland and COVID19

#337084

Postby JamesMuenchen » August 31st, 2020, 9:04 am

Snorvey wrote:[i]Maybe, but im still going to have to re-read the latter part of this thread several times to try and get my head round it.

Beats me I'm afraid.

I find this analyses far more accessible, and convincing
https://www.these-islands.co.uk/publica ... dache.aspx

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Re: An independent Scotland and COVID19

#337104

Postby Nimrod103 » August 31st, 2020, 10:16 am

JamesMuenchen wrote:
Snorvey wrote:[i]Maybe, but im still going to have to re-read the latter part of this thread several times to try and get my head round it.

Beats me I'm afraid.

I find this analyses far more accessible, and convincing
https://www.these-islands.co.uk/publica ... dache.aspx


The fundamental problem, which nobody seems to dispute, is that the Scottish Pound would trade at more than 1:1 vs Sterling. The above reference says that those Scots with private income in Sterling (such as a private pension from a UK provider) would benefit, relative to those dependent on the Scottish state for an income. True. But the other side of the coin is why would any UK or other foreign company buy assets in Scotland or invest there, with the prospect of those investments declining in value. I suspect many boardrooms have already started this process of reallocation out of Scotland.

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Re: An independent Scotland and COVID19

#337105

Postby dspp » August 31st, 2020, 10:21 am

Nimrod103 wrote:But the other side of the coin is why would any UK or other foreign company buy assets in Scotland or invest there, with the prospect of those investments declining in value. I suspect many boardrooms have already started this process of reallocation out of Scotland.


The only reason to remain in Scotland is that they may manage to decouple themselves from Brexit madness and rejoin the EU. The same is much less true for facilities in England that have a slower and more uncertain pathway to rejoining. Believe me this topic is discussed in boardrooms wrestling with these decisions, and Brexiters have a lot to answer for.

- dspp

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Re: An independent Scotland and COVID19

#337107

Postby Charlottesquare » August 31st, 2020, 10:27 am

Nimrod103 wrote:
NeilW wrote:
Nimrod103 wrote:But, but, Scotland's debts, private and national (as their share of the UK debt) are denominated in British Pounds. Why would creditors accept Scottish Pounds at parity?


Not under Lex Monetae. The private debts are irrelevant. Bankruptcy courts sort that out. Public Debts would be redenominated and QE'd out of existence. No point paying interest to rich people for not spending. Better that they spend and give somebody an income.


ISTM that Lex Monetae is just a fancy Latin phrase for 'I will steal from you, unless you can stop me'. The issue will be under whose laws the debts are written. Since debts in the UK are written in UK law, a subordinate Scottish legal system cannot change the denomination of the debts from Sterling to Scottish pounds. Private debts may have to be settled in the bankruptcy courts, but it will be difficult for private Scottish borrowers to ever borrow from foreigners again. Public debts will also be written under UK law,andtherefore cannot be redenominated.


Do debts not arise from contract? Is there not distinct Scottish and English contract law? You have to, contract by contract,imho look at what it says vis a vis which legal framework governs the particular agreement in question.

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Re: An independent Scotland and COVID19

#337109

Postby Charlottesquare » August 31st, 2020, 10:31 am

NeilW wrote:
scrumpyjack wrote:there would be very little in a Scottish currency where the state had a truly massive deficit. Who would want to hold Scottish drams


How can you get a "massive deficit" if nobody is holding the Scottish currency? That would be an accounting impossibility wouldn't it. Draw up a balance sheet and you'll see why.

Toto has pulled back the curtain, and furlough pay revealed the man therein. The old Wizard of Oz routine no longer holds any away.

P.S. Ideally you don't want anybody holding your currency. You want them to spend it as soon as they get it. That way more people get an income, and more transactions happen. Necessarily as a result of the mathematics if everybody spends the currency and nobody holds it, and the tax rate is more than zero then taxation will exactly match the initial spend almost straight away. That's a simple geometric progression your average 15 year old can do.


Are you not considering a closed economy with no leakage, there is leakage though, whether it be that fridge you bought or the food you ate, some of the currency created escaped your closed economy.

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Re: An independent Scotland and COVID19

#337110

Postby scrumpyjack » August 31st, 2020, 10:31 am

dspp wrote:
Nimrod103 wrote:But the other side of the coin is why would any UK or other foreign company buy assets in Scotland or invest there, with the prospect of those investments declining in value. I suspect many boardrooms have already started this process of reallocation out of Scotland.


The only reason to remain in Scotland is that they may manage to decouple themselves from Brexit madness and rejoin the EU. The same is much less true for facilities in England that have a slower and more uncertain pathway to rejoining. Believe me this topic is discussed in boardrooms wrestling with these decisions, and Brexiters have a lot to answer for.

- dspp


It is highly unlikely that the EU would admit them, at least for a few decades (if the EU lasts that long). There are many EU countries that have regions wanting to secede (Spain / Catalunia for example) who would not want to set a precedent. If, by some miracle, they were admitted they would then have a barrier with the country they do the vast majority of their trade (R UK) and free trade with lands far far away that they do much less trade with.

Still commonsense does not enter into these nationalistic debates. Who was is who said 'Patriotism is the last refuge of a scoundrel' ?

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Re: An independent Scotland and COVID19

#337114

Postby Charlottesquare » August 31st, 2020, 11:02 am

scrumpyjack wrote:
dspp wrote:
Nimrod103 wrote:But the other side of the coin is why would any UK or other foreign company buy assets in Scotland or invest there, with the prospect of those investments declining in value. I suspect many boardrooms have already started this process of reallocation out of Scotland.


The only reason to remain in Scotland is that they may manage to decouple themselves from Brexit madness and rejoin the EU. The same is much less true for facilities in England that have a slower and more uncertain pathway to rejoining. Believe me this topic is discussed in boardrooms wrestling with these decisions, and Brexiters have a lot to answer for.

- dspp


It is highly unlikely that the EU would admit them, at least for a few decades (if the EU lasts that long). There are many EU countries that have regions wanting to secede (Spain / Catalunia for example) who would not want to set a precedent. If, by some miracle, they were admitted they would then have a barrier with the country they do the vast majority of their trade (R UK) and free trade with lands far far away that they do much less trade with.

Still commonsense does not enter into these nationalistic debates. Who was is who said 'Patriotism is the last refuge of a scoundrel' ?


There is the problem, the one word, regions.

Scotland is not merely a region and 1707 was a Union not a takeover, it is in the name on the treaty. When Scotland agreed to a Union with England et al (and agreed is a flexible word in this context) it did so as a sovereign nation and it remains a sovereign nation which is in Union with the other parts of the united kingdoms; it is not now, and never has been, just a bit tacked on, mere region.

Brexit has shown us that we can ignore economics, stuff the evidence, so frankly why would we now follow commonsense?

As someone who campaigned for Better Together in 2014 (I am by family as English as I am Scottish) I am starting to have my reservations, it is akin to thinking a house move might be a clever idea as the neighbours are starting to become a bit antisocial,they in the main are okay but seem to keep holding parties where some pretty unpleasant guests keep getting an invite and our reservations about these guests keep getting ignored. We are getting close to the point where if we cannot get them to see our point of view via discussions then maybe a stronger boundary fence may be the only solution.

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Re: An independent Scotland and COVID19

#337131

Postby scrumpyjack » August 31st, 2020, 11:30 am

Charlottesquare wrote:
scrumpyjack wrote:
dspp wrote:
The only reason to remain in Scotland is that they may manage to decouple themselves from Brexit madness and rejoin the EU. The same is much less true for facilities in England that have a slower and more uncertain pathway to rejoining. Believe me this topic is discussed in boardrooms wrestling with these decisions, and Brexiters have a lot to answer for.

- dspp


It is highly unlikely that the EU would admit them, at least for a few decades (if the EU lasts that long). There are many EU countries that have regions wanting to secede (Spain / Catalunia for example) who would not want to set a precedent. If, by some miracle, they were admitted they would then have a barrier with the country they do the vast majority of their trade (R UK) and free trade with lands far far away that they do much less trade with.

Still commonsense does not enter into these nationalistic debates. Who was is who said 'Patriotism is the last refuge of a scoundrel' ?


There is the problem, the one word, regions.

Scotland is not merely a region and 1707 was a Union not a takeover, it is in the name on the treaty. When Scotland agreed to a Union with England et al (and agreed is a flexible word in this context) it did so as a sovereign nation and it remains a sovereign nation which is in Union with the other parts of the united kingdoms; it is not now, and never has been, just a bit tacked on, mere region.

Brexit has shown us that we can ignore economics, stuff the evidence, so frankly why would we now follow commonsense?

As someone who campaigned for Better Together in 2014 (I am by family as English as I am Scottish) I am starting to have my reservations, it is akin to thinking a house move might be a clever idea as the neighbours are starting to become a bit antisocial,they in the main are okay but seem to keep holding parties where some pretty unpleasant guests keep getting an invite and our reservations about these guests keep getting ignored. We are getting close to the point where if we cannot get them to see our point of view via discussions then maybe a stronger boundary fence may be the only solution.


And in 1137 the Kingdom of Aragon was formed, now Catalonia. Not to mention the Kingdom of Naples etc etc all over Europe. The Basque country has its own language and predates the Romans. It has its own flag, cuisine etc etc. There have always been lots of countries in Europe that have joined together or split apart.
One could go on. That is not in any way to disparage the Scottish heritage, nor the English one. My wife is Scots, and my mother was.
Your last paragraph is very true, but it could as easily be a description of the view from the English looking north.

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Re: An independent Scotland and COVID19

#337144

Postby Charlottesquare » August 31st, 2020, 12:24 pm

scrumpyjack wrote:
Charlottesquare wrote:
scrumpyjack wrote:
It is highly unlikely that the EU would admit them, at least for a few decades (if the EU lasts that long). There are many EU countries that have regions wanting to secede (Spain / Catalunia for example) who would not want to set a precedent. If, by some miracle, they were admitted they would then have a barrier with the country they do the vast majority of their trade (R UK) and free trade with lands far far away that they do much less trade with.

Still commonsense does not enter into these nationalistic debates. Who was is who said 'Patriotism is the last refuge of a scoundrel' ?


There is the problem, the one word, regions.

Scotland is not merely a region and 1707 was a Union not a takeover, it is in the name on the treaty. When Scotland agreed to a Union with England et al (and agreed is a flexible word in this context) it did so as a sovereign nation and it remains a sovereign nation which is in Union with the other parts of the united kingdoms; it is not now, and never has been, just a bit tacked on, mere region.

Brexit has shown us that we can ignore economics, stuff the evidence, so frankly why would we now follow commonsense?

As someone who campaigned for Better Together in 2014 (I am by family as English as I am Scottish) I am starting to have my reservations, it is akin to thinking a house move might be a clever idea as the neighbours are starting to become a bit antisocial,they in the main are okay but seem to keep holding parties where some pretty unpleasant guests keep getting an invite and our reservations about these guests keep getting ignored. We are getting close to the point where if we cannot get them to see our point of view via discussions then maybe a stronger boundary fence may be the only solution.


And in 1137 the Kingdom of Aragon was formed, now Catalonia. Not to mention the Kingdom of Naples etc etc all over Europe. The Basque country has its own language and predates the Romans. It has its own flag, cuisine etc etc. There have always been lots of countries in Europe that have joined together or split apart.
One could go on. That is not in any way to disparage the Scottish heritage, nor the English one. My wife is Scots, and my mother was.
Your last paragraph is very true, but it could as easily be a description of the view from the English looking north.


The big difference with your examples like Naples is that they were subsumed into something else, Scotland, as a country, never ceased to exist, it was not a takeover but a marriage and successive governments in Westminster over the years recognised this and acted accordingly.

They tended to try not to legislate for Scotland when the various institutions in Scotland were strongly opposed to said legislation, there was a recognition that Westminster's governance up here was at the will of the Scottish people.

Thatcher, if one say reads TM Devine, "Independence or Union: Scotland's Past and Scotland's Present", whilst taking at times a " one nation" approach famously told Rifkind (I think it was Rifkind) that she was an "English Nationalist", she recognised within "The Downing Street Years" the right of the Scottish People to decide if they wished or not to remain part of said Union (as of course do the English), even she saw that the Union is not a singular event within history but a continuing relationship throughout a shared history which can ,and likely at some point will, cease.( Entropy)

There are differences, some might argue superficial, but added together they create a real difference;- if I take out my certificates from school they will look very different from yours,I likely took more subjects and a broader range of subjects in my final year at school (Highers in English, Maths, Physics, Chemistry, History, Economics), I most certainly studied on a broader front at university during my first degree, that breadth is a reflection of differing values within the two educational systems. If I take out my copy house titles they again will differ in form, England seems to have difficulties with the idea of joint ownership of a solum granted to the individual flat owners within their individual titles. My late father's trust uses different terms (no remaindermen here), the leases I offer our commercial tenants differ, the rights here of say tenants of retail properties at ish are starkly different to in England, the church I was christened in differs in its practices (Nae Bishops), and of course there are various breakaway factions that will likely appear even more alien. ((Frees, Wee Frees etc) If I am charged with a crime here, say hamesucken (does England still have such) they will require corroboration to find me guilty and they might give me the third verdict, Not Proven.

Yes, there is commonality, Scots have served throughout empire, fought in wars, shared a history, but there is also a real difference, unlike say Wales or Ireland we did not fall by conquest we agreed to a document that binds the two countries in Union insofar as the two countries still wish to be in such Union.

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Re: An independent Scotland and COVID19

#337163

Postby JamesMuenchen » August 31st, 2020, 1:47 pm

Charlottesquare wrote:
scrumpyjack wrote:
Charlottesquare wrote:
There is the problem, the one word, regions.

Scotland is not merely a region and 1707 was a Union not a takeover, it is in the name on the treaty. When Scotland agreed to a Union with England et al (and agreed is a flexible word in this context) it did so as a sovereign nation and it remains a sovereign nation which is in Union with the other parts of the united kingdoms; it is not now, and never has been, just a bit tacked on, mere region.

Brexit has shown us that we can ignore economics, stuff the evidence, so frankly why would we now follow commonsense?

As someone who campaigned for Better Together in 2014 (I am by family as English as I am Scottish) I am starting to have my reservations, it is akin to thinking a house move might be a clever idea as the neighbours are starting to become a bit antisocial,they in the main are okay but seem to keep holding parties where some pretty unpleasant guests keep getting an invite and our reservations about these guests keep getting ignored. We are getting close to the point where if we cannot get them to see our point of view via discussions then maybe a stronger boundary fence may be the only solution.


And in 1137 the Kingdom of Aragon was formed, now Catalonia. Not to mention the Kingdom of Naples etc etc all over Europe. The Basque country has its own language and predates the Romans. It has its own flag, cuisine etc etc. There have always been lots of countries in Europe that have joined together or split apart.
One could go on. That is not in any way to disparage the Scottish heritage, nor the English one. My wife is Scots, and my mother was.
Your last paragraph is very true, but it could as easily be a description of the view from the English looking north.


The big difference with your examples like Naples is that they were subsumed into something else, Scotland, as a country, never ceased to exist, it was not a takeover but a marriage and successive governments in Westminster over the years recognised this and acted accordingly.

They tended to try not to legislate for Scotland when the various institutions in Scotland were strongly opposed to said legislation, there was a recognition that Westminster's governance up here was at the will of the Scottish people.

Thatcher, if one say reads TM Devine, "Independence or Union: Scotland's Past and Scotland's Present", whilst taking at times a " one nation" approach famously told Rifkind (I think it was Rifkind) that she was an "English Nationalist", she recognised within "The Downing Street Years" the right of the Scottish People to decide if they wished or not to remain part of said Union (as of course do the English), even she saw that the Union is not a singular event within history but a continuing relationship throughout a shared history which can ,and likely at some point will, cease.( Entropy)

There are differences, some might argue superficial, but added together they create a real difference;- if I take out my certificates from school they will look very different from yours,I likely took more subjects and a broader range of subjects in my final year at school (Highers in English, Maths, Physics, Chemistry, History, Economics), I most certainly studied on a broader front at university during my first degree, that breadth is a reflection of differing values within the two educational systems. If I take out my copy house titles they again will differ in form, England seems to have difficulties with the idea of joint ownership of a solum granted to the individual flat owners within their individual titles. My late father's trust uses different terms (no remaindermen here), the leases I offer our commercial tenants differ, the rights here of say tenants of retail properties at ish are starkly different to in England, the church I was christened in differs in its practices (Nae Bishops), and of course there are various breakaway factions that will likely appear even more alien. ((Frees, Wee Frees etc) If I am charged with a crime here, say hamesucken (does England still have such) they will require corroboration to find me guilty and they might give me the third verdict, Not Proven.

Yes, there is commonality, Scots have served throughout empire, fought in wars, shared a history, but there is also a real difference, unlike say Wales or Ireland we did not fall by conquest we agreed to a document that binds the two countries in Union insofar as the two countries still wish to be in such Union.

Not really.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Union
Article 1 states "That the Two Kingdoms of Scotland and England, shall upon the 1st May next ensuing the date hereof, and forever after, be United into One Kingdom by the Name of Great Britain."


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