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An independent Scotland and COVID19

The home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
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This is the home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
Charlottesquare
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Re: An independent Scotland and COVID19

#337365

Postby Charlottesquare » September 1st, 2020, 11:14 am

SalvorHardin wrote:Yeah, go for it Scotland. I live in England, resent the Barnett formula and detest the racist SNP.


On that basis you really ought to support them, they keep clamouring for a greater transfer of taxation up here with matched reductions in the Barnett formula (Devo Max) and if they were actually successful achieving independence your resentments would all be gone.

I as a hybrid from both sides of the border of course resent via my taxes (at a higher rate than yours) supporting all regions of England except for London and the South East (which I think are the only two parts with a higher GDP per capita than Scotland)

I of course also resent that there is still no motorway from Edinburgh down to the A1/M (yet look at the map and see all those across/around/through England) and that our football leagues up here are poor.

And of course I really resent that England inflicts its perceived need for Brexit with the most ill planned route out of the EU certain fringe groups within the ruling party could manage to get away with, with politicians who have not got a clue what they are doing and dress it all up as the will of the people- of course its only relevance to The Economy, this thread, is that this brave new world might just have a bit of an influence on, The Economy.

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Re: An independent Scotland and COVID19

#337374

Postby SalvorHardin » September 1st, 2020, 11:56 am

Charlottesquare wrote:And of course I really resent that England inflicts its perceived need for Brexit with the most ill planned route out of the EU certain fringe groups within the ruling party could manage to get away with, with politicians who have not got a clue what they are doing and dress it all up as the will of the people- of course its only relevance to The Economy, this thread, is that this brave new world might just have a bit of an influence on, The Economy.

Yeah, it's a big of a pig's ear. The Wuhan coronavirus hasn't helped matters by consuming the vast majority of the government's time.

I take solace in the economic forecasters having been spectacularly wrong in predicting a recession, mass unemployment and a stock market crash if we voted to leave the EU. They were wrong then, I think that they'll be wrong now. A couple of weeks of serious disruption to cross-border trade will concentrate minds wonderfully, particularly when the French farmers start burning tyres because they're stopped from exporting their goods. Willing buyers and willing sellers, etc.

Four years of the establishment trying to keep Britain in the EU hasn't helped matters, though they didn't have the bottle to stop it via parliament where remain had a majority of MPs until last December. What it has done is to encourage the EU to be as intransigent as possible. They must be pleased to have sabotaged our chances of getting a Canada-style deal by encouraging the EU to refuse to accept that Britain is now an independent country.

I've aways wondered why the SNP bangs on about the economic damage that Brexit (or rather not having a trade deal since we've already left) will cause, only to push for independence when there will be similar but far greater economic damage to Scotland as a result? Or that it's unacceptable for Scotland to be "dragged out of the EU against its will", but somehow it's perfectly acceptable for England to be forced to remain in the EU against its will.

As to the economic future, one thing that has invariably been overlooked is the corrosive effect of much EU regulation when it comes to restricting competition and innovation. Big companies routinely used the EU to raise the fixed costs in their industries, thus restricting the ability of new entrants to compete. EU regulations are a major reason why the EU hasn't generated any companies which come close to the big American tech firms. It's a big reason why I voted to leave. Now I have little confidence that a British government will do anything about regulation.

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Re: An independent Scotland and COVID19

#337441

Postby dspp » September 1st, 2020, 4:31 pm

NeilW wrote:
dspp wrote:It is the sovereign right of any cat, or any peoples, to decide if they wish to have their tummies tickled. Or, equally pertinently, to obtain fiscal transfers (cloaked in whatever name) from more willing partners of their own choice.


There are no fiscal transfers from the EU. See Greece for details.

Scotland would be a net contributor to the EU budget (payable in Euros) the same are Ireland.

Presumably then you would be all for the suspension of the Barnett Formula so that the current Scottish people can experience precisely what it will be like in the EU under your chosen regime.

A genuine independent Scotland may be sensible. Becoming an EU colony does not.


Fiscal transfers seem to be routinely happening in the EU, they just get cloaked in different names. Try structural adjustment grants & funds for example. Fiscal union is very much happening, with latest vehicle being cv19, see https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus- ... n-12033314. Politics very much plays a part in this, see rebate mechanisms.

The Scottish are well placed and the slipway is apparently greased and ready.

And I rather suspect the Scottish are fed up with the little-Englanders treating them as a colony. Something similar would likely happen a nanosecond later in Belfast.

- dspp

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Re: An independent Scotland and COVID19

#337445

Postby scrumpyjack » September 1st, 2020, 4:50 pm

If the Scots vote for independence that’s fine and they must be free to go, but the 2014 referendum was meant to be a once in a generation vote and unless there is a clear overwhelming majority in Scotland, then it isn’t fair on the Scottish people for the SNP to keep asking the same question until they get result they want, after which the question is never asked again. Still I suppose the EU has form on that one! One can’t really argue that Brexit changes things because in the 2019 general election 55% of Scots voted against the SNP.

Similarly if NI votes for uniting with Ireland that is absolutely fine, and British Governments have long said they have no wish to keep NI part of the UK against the majority wish. I suppose uniting with Ireland would make a lot of sense economically, but I haven't heard any convincing economic arguments that support Scotland breaking with RUK. Still nationalism isn't about rational economic arguments, it's more about politician's career prospects.

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Re: An independent Scotland and COVID19

#337492

Postby dspp » September 1st, 2020, 8:39 pm

Snorvey wrote:The Scottish government is to set out its plans for a second independence referendum in a draft bill at Holyrood.

State finances aside, I'm not sure I can go through another divisive referendum.



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland- ... s-53987594


Anyone in the 52% who thought they were the only people who might be prepared to pull down the pillars of the temple should by now have understood their mistake.

This is barely started.

regards, dspp

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Re: An independent Scotland and COVID19

#337494

Postby JamesMuenchen » September 1st, 2020, 8:42 pm

Charlottesquare wrote:
Jamesmuenchen wrote:
Charlottesquare wrote:we did not fall by conquest we agreed to a document that binds the two countries in Union insofar as the two countries still wish to be in such Union.

Not really.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Union
Article 1 states "That the Two Kingdoms of Scotland and England, shall upon the 1st May next ensuing the date hereof, and forever after, be United into One Kingdom by the Name of Great Britain."


You tend not to include the prenup within the marriage ceremony.

Very glib.

But there was no prenup.

And even if there had been:
Article 25 provided that all laws of either kingdom that may be inconsistent with the Articles in the Treaty were declared void.

So Article 1 would prevail.

The (Scots) law that enacted the treaty is still on the statute books.
https://www.legislation.gov.uk/aosp/170 ... view=plain
WHICH ARTICLES OF UNION and Act immediately above-written Her Majesty with advice and consent foresaid Statutes Enacts and Ordains to be and Continue in all time coming the sure and perpetuall foundation of ane compleat and intire Union of the Two Kingdoms of Scotland and England

You can talk about countries and regions and whatever else you like, they are loosely defined and essentially meaningless. The political entity was the Kingdom of Scotland and it entered into a permanent union with the Kingdom of England.

This is why the Scottish govt cannot simply declare UDI or hold its own referendum without the consent of Westminster. It is not in their gift and everyone involved knows it.

dspp wrote:If you go and speak quietly to senior folk in the EU commission, you will find that there is a willingness to accommodate an independent Scotland's entry "very quickly". That is based on the commission's understanding of the mood amongst the European Council, who are the elected heads of state or governments. I am quite sure of my sources.

I'm quite sure of your sources too.

Even if it were true though, the Accession process is well known. There is some scope to go easy, but EU laws have to be implemented. Including joing the Euro.

That's an audit not a negotiation.

Then there's the question of how current and future Candidate countries will react to favouritism shown to Scotland. They will expect the same treatment.

dspp wrote:It would seem that the European Union is a union with a clearly understood and exercisable exit clause, accessible equally by all.

Thanks to the UK for insisting on Article 50.

dspp wrote:However the little-Englander approach to the Act of Union would appear to be a more colonialist diktat. That is telling the Scottish a message that is being heard pretty clearly.

It was a symmetrical agreement, entered into freely.

You are becoming ever more bitter and twisted in your hatred of the English.

Funny how it's the posters who clearly see themselves as "the good guys" that are always spewing hatred. Now, where's my Big Book of Nazi Parallels?

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Re: An independent Scotland and COVID19

#337527

Postby servodude » September 2nd, 2020, 2:02 am

Snorvey wrote:The Scottish government is to set out its plans for a second independence referendum in a draft bill at Holyrood.

State finances aside, I'm not sure I can go through another divisive referendum.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland- ... s-53987594


It's a bloody horrendous situation

Division appears de rigueur as a strategy among those that would govern in many places these days
- add to the precedent of "f*** business" as a sentiment and all sense goes out the window

The SNP have never needed to do much to court the braveheart nutters (the ones that don't even need dog whistles!)
The current clustercuss ensuing from the brexit vote (and handling) does look to be pulling more sensible characters in to their fold; I certainly know people moving to them because they can no longer reconcile their "liberal" views with those of the Tory party (Davidson seemed like their last hope!)

These are horrid times, with horridly racist/resentful/misanthropic views being held, presented and stoked from many sides (none of them are "right" even if they might be politically useful to what you consider your side!)
- and I have a bad feeling that it will get worse before it gets better

-sd

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Re: An independent Scotland and COVID19

#337528

Postby servodude » September 2nd, 2020, 2:11 am

JamesMuenchen wrote:Now, where's my Big Book of Nazi Parallels?


Good chance these days it'll be under a copy of "Where the Crawdads Sing" ;)

-sd

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Re: An independent Scotland and COVID19

#337680

Postby Charlottesquare » September 2nd, 2020, 3:04 pm

servodude wrote:
Snorvey wrote:The Scottish government is to set out its plans for a second independence referendum in a draft bill at Holyrood.

State finances aside, I'm not sure I can go through another divisive referendum.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland- ... s-53987594


It's a bloody horrendous situation

Division appears de rigueur as a strategy among those that would govern in many places these days
- add to the precedent of "f*** business" as a sentiment and all sense goes out the window

The SNP have never needed to do much to court the braveheart nutters (the ones that don't even need dog whistles!)
The current clustercuss ensuing from the brexit vote (and handling) does look to be pulling more sensible characters in to their fold; I certainly know people moving to them because they can no longer reconcile their "liberal" views with those of the Tory party (Davidson seemed like their last hope!)

These are horrid times, with horridly racist/resentful/misanthropic views being held, presented and stoked from many sides (none of them are "right" even if they might be politically useful to what you consider your side!)
- and I have a bad feeling that it will get worse before it gets better

-sd


Pretty much agree with that, the Conservatives stopped being a party I liked a long time ago but I still gave them a grudging respect , nasty but competent, but now we seem to have both nasty and incompetent and I just cannot countenance offering them any support- if they have decided to shape the UK in their own image, and if there is nothing we can do up here to prevent that/reverse that/ modify that/constrain that, then notwithstanding my actively campaigning for the Union in 2014 I am close to a sod it moment; yes it looks like it will financially be very painful but I have real difficulty feeling any connection or warmth to those currently espousing the hardest possible end to the UK transition from the EU, frankly they are really starting to seem very different from me in world view/standards/beliefs; maybe they were always that different and I just never noticed.

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Re: An independent Scotland and COVID19

#337743

Postby NeilW » September 2nd, 2020, 8:15 pm

Charlottesquare wrote:Your example assumes the speed of circulation is sufficient to recoup the money issued by taxation before it leaves your economy or gets saved but this may well not be the case-


1. We're only interested in what is paid to the Exchequer (the 'reserve drain'). How it is calculated is neither here nor there (There's a reason it is called 'value added tax'. You pay over the value add. And PAYE is paid over by the employer no matter how it is calculated).
2. It can't leave the economy. They don't use Sterling anywhere else. It's a non-convertible floating rate currency.
2. Saving just delays the inevitable. In effect there is a pause on the stone skipping. Once the savings are released the skipping continues.

And of course The Deficit(tm) is just the accounting counterparty of that saving.

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Re: An independent Scotland and COVID19

#337744

Postby NeilW » September 2nd, 2020, 8:20 pm

gryffron wrote:Imbalance between imports and exports, or money printing leads to currency imbalance.


How does it. Precisely with transactions within the FX system. Once you do that, you'll find you run out of liquidity and it doesn't imbalance at all. The prices change and transactions stop happening which dynamically corrects in the other direction.

And as we know the Gold market has predicted 20 of the last zero hyperinflations. They don't tend to happen due to currency issue. They happen due to other factors (supply side destruction and foreign denominated debt mostly) that cannot apply to the UK, or a sensible Scottish, regime.

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Re: An independent Scotland and COVID19

#337745

Postby NeilW » September 2nd, 2020, 8:25 pm

Dod101 wrote: if it were that simple we would never have a monetary crisis nor Argentina like inflation as far as I can see.


Argentina has debt denominated in dollars. Does the UK?
Zimbabwe handed all its land over to people that can't farm. Has the UK?
Weimar had to make reparations in Gold. Does the UK?
Venezuela has a dirty peg to the US dollar. Does the UK?

An airplane crashing does not prove heavier than air flight is impossible. It proves you had a bad pilot - almost certainly one who thought they were driving a car.

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Re: An independent Scotland and COVID19

#337754

Postby NeilW » September 2nd, 2020, 9:14 pm

SalvorHardin wrote:The MMT supporters can't explain this.


Argentina: Foreign denominated debt.
Zimbabwe: supply side failure by giving land to people that can't farm. And now listening to mainstream economists when setting up a bank.
Weimar: Reparation in gold.
Venezuela: Dirty peg to USD.

Did I miss any pears that tend to get compared to the UK apple?

How about a developed nation over the last 20 years. Particularly those running very high levels of QE. Lots of money there. Quite a lot of few goods over the last few months. Where's the hyperinflation? Hasn't happened has it.

MMT just says set the price of one non-stockable commodity via an automatic stabiliser and the rest of the economy can then just run. Which is why it can correct a failing mainstream model like this: https://new-wayland.com/blog/how-the-job-guarantee-fixes-mainstream-macro/

After that it's back to tax and spend as you've used up the spare capacity of the economy getting everybody back to work.

It's not a free for all. It just offsets the natural tendency of a monetary economy to drain to net savings - which ensures that the private sector can operate at full output, driving forward productivity rather than propping up non-jobs on tax credits. Like this https://new-wayland.com/blog/look-ma-no-tax-from-zero-to-full-employment/. Which is roughly what introducing a new Scottish currency would look like - if they do it properly and automatically.

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Re: An independent Scotland and COVID19

#337771

Postby Dod101 » September 2nd, 2020, 11:13 pm

NeilW wrote:
Dod101 wrote: if it were that simple we would never have a monetary crisis nor Argentina like inflation as far as I can see.


Argentina has debt denominated in dollars. Does the UK?
Zimbabwe handed all its land over to people that can't farm. Has the UK?
Weimar had to make reparations in Gold. Does the UK?
Venezuela has a dirty peg to the US dollar. Does the UK?

An airplane crashing does not prove heavier than air flight is impossible. It proves you had a bad pilot - almost certainly one who thought they were driving a car.


So?

Dod

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Re: An independent Scotland and COVID19

#337811

Postby JamesMuenchen » September 3rd, 2020, 8:41 am

NeilW wrote:
SalvorHardin wrote:The MMT supporters can't explain this.


Argentina: Foreign denominated debt.
Zimbabwe: supply side failure by giving land to people that can't farm. And now listening to mainstream economists when setting up a bank.
Weimar: Reparation in gold.
Venezuela: Dirty peg to USD.

Did I miss any pears that tend to get compared to the UK apple?

How about a developed nation over the last 20 years. Particularly those running very high levels of QE. Lots of money there. Quite a lot of few goods over the last few months. Where's the hyperinflation? Hasn't happened has it.

MMT just says set the price of one non-stockable commodity via an automatic stabiliser and the rest of the economy can then just run. Which is why it can correct a failing mainstream model like this: https://new-wayland.com/blog/how-the-job-guarantee-fixes-mainstream-macro/

After that it's back to tax and spend as you've used up the spare capacity of the economy getting everybody back to work.

It's not a free for all. It just offsets the natural tendency of a monetary economy to drain to net savings - which ensures that the private sector can operate at full output, driving forward productivity rather than propping up non-jobs on tax credits. Like this https://new-wayland.com/blog/look-ma-no-tax-from-zero-to-full-employment/. Which is roughly what introducing a new Scottish currency would look like - if they do it properly and automatically.

While it's quite interesting, this is clearly not the plan. Maybe MMT could be discussed on a different thread?

Although to be fair, "we'll just create full employment" is exactly the sort of thing the Nats tend to say.

Facts are:
- most Scots don't want to give up the pound
- SNP membership are in full-on Braveheart mode
- SNP leadership need a fudge that can get through a referendum

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-sc ... s-48069470
Second picture down to see who are really running the show :)

It's another Gordian knot.


The six tests to decide whether they would launch an independent currency are:
Fiscal sustainability: Has the Scottish Government sustainably secured its fiscal policy objectives and sufficiently strong and credible fiscal position, in relation to budget deficit and overall debt level?

Central Bank credibility and stability of debt issuance: Has the Scottish Central Bank and Government framework established sufficient international and market credibility evidenced by the price and the stability of the price of its debt issuance?

Financial requirements of Scottish residents and businesses: Would a separate currency meet the on-going needs of Scottish residents and businesses for stability and continuity of their financial arrangements and command wide support?

Sufficiency of foreign exchange and financial reserves: Does Scotland have sufficient reserves to allow currency management?

Fit to trade and investment patterns: Would the new arrangement better reflect Scotland’s new and developing trading or investment patterns?

Correlation of economic and trade cycle: Is the economic cycle in Scotland significantly out of phase with that of the rest of the UK, or at least as well correlated with the cycles of other trading and investment partners, thus making an independent monetary policy feasible and desirable?


Let's not put the cart before the horse.

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Re: An independent Scotland and COVID19

#337816

Postby NeilW » September 3rd, 2020, 9:02 am

JamesMuenchen wrote:Facts are:
- most Scots don't want to give up the pound
- SNP membership are in full-on Braveheart mode
- SNP leadership need a fudge that can get through a referendum

It's another Gordian knot.
.


The six tests are utter nonsense since they were put together by people who haven't a clue what they are talking about. You don't need any of that to run a currency - unless you want to do it like Zimbabwe, have 700% inflation and then wonder why.

If the "stick with the pound" argument holds, then Scotland would head towards bankruptcy since money would rapidly drain to the rest of the UK via the import channel - as it wouldn't be replaced by the Barnett Formula. There would have to be massive tax rises or spending cuts. The Greece situation would rapidly arise.

But I suppose that would allow the SNP to continue to blame the English for everything...

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Re: An independent Scotland and COVID19

#337821

Postby NeilW » September 3rd, 2020, 9:08 am

Charlottesquare wrote: I have real difficulty feeling any connection or warmth to those currently espousing the hardest possible end to the UK transition from the EU,


How is it hard? We've been without full export to the EU for six months during the crisis and nobody has noticed.

The correct approach the UK should take is to eliminate import tariffs on our side, let the EU do what they want and then make sure everybody has a job and an income via an alternative job guarantee.

From my polling the concept is wildly popular in Scotland and Northern Ireland as well as the outer regions of England (like where I am in spitting distance of the border). And it allows us all to put a big Union Jack on people's income directly.

The furlough pay scheme has shown the way. We need to move that to maintaining full employment and much of the concern will go away.

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Re: An independent Scotland and COVID19

#337828

Postby JamesMuenchen » September 3rd, 2020, 9:19 am

NeilW wrote:The six tests are utter nonsense since they were put together by people who haven't a clue what they are talking about.

At least we can agree on that.

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Re: An independent Scotland and COVID19

#337829

Postby dspp » September 3rd, 2020, 9:20 am

NeilW wrote:
Charlottesquare wrote: I have real difficulty feeling any connection or warmth to those currently espousing the hardest possible end to the UK transition from the EU,


How is it hard? We've been without full export to the EU for six months during the crisis and nobody has noticed. .


Maybe you haven't noticed problems but some of us do. Especially those of us who put containers on ships and export them. The last 6-months was, as far as we were concerned, our third go at preparing for Brexit - and frankly we really don't give a $%%^& if the Cons are trying to censor us off the airwaves.

- dspp

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Re: An independent Scotland and COVID19

#337843

Postby NeilW » September 3rd, 2020, 9:58 am

dspp wrote:Maybe you haven't noticed problems but some of us do. Especially those of us who put containers on ships and export them. The last 6-months was, as far as we were concerned, our third go at preparing for Brexit - and frankly we really don't give a $%%^& if the Cons are trying to censor us off the airwaves.


As I said the rest of us, the majority, haven't noticed. Those exporting will of course now be paying the full cost of doing that job given the rest of us will no longer be subsidising it by paying protectionist tariffs and fees. That's to be expected.

Charge the customers accordingly and it will all sort itself out. Even mainstream analysts acknowledge that import costs into a protectionist area end up being paid by those inside the wall. It'll probably take the EU a while to work that out given how stubborn they are.


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