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An independent Scotland and COVID19

The home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
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This is the home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
Charlottesquare
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Re: An independent Scotland and COVID19

#337174

Postby Charlottesquare » August 31st, 2020, 3:08 pm

JamesMuenchen wrote:
Charlottesquare wrote:
scrumpyjack wrote:
And in 1137 the Kingdom of Aragon was formed, now Catalonia. Not to mention the Kingdom of Naples etc etc all over Europe. The Basque country has its own language and predates the Romans. It has its own flag, cuisine etc etc. There have always been lots of countries in Europe that have joined together or split apart.
One could go on. That is not in any way to disparage the Scottish heritage, nor the English one. My wife is Scots, and my mother was.
Your last paragraph is very true, but it could as easily be a description of the view from the English looking north.


The big difference with your examples like Naples is that they were subsumed into something else, Scotland, as a country, never ceased to exist, it was not a takeover but a marriage and successive governments in Westminster over the years recognised this and acted accordingly.

They tended to try not to legislate for Scotland when the various institutions in Scotland were strongly opposed to said legislation, there was a recognition that Westminster's governance up here was at the will of the Scottish people.

Thatcher, if one say reads TM Devine, "Independence or Union: Scotland's Past and Scotland's Present", whilst taking at times a " one nation" approach famously told Rifkind (I think it was Rifkind) that she was an "English Nationalist", she recognised within "The Downing Street Years" the right of the Scottish People to decide if they wished or not to remain part of said Union (as of course do the English), even she saw that the Union is not a singular event within history but a continuing relationship throughout a shared history which can ,and likely at some point will, cease.( Entropy)

There are differences, some might argue superficial, but added together they create a real difference;- if I take out my certificates from school they will look very different from yours,I likely took more subjects and a broader range of subjects in my final year at school (Highers in English, Maths, Physics, Chemistry, History, Economics), I most certainly studied on a broader front at university during my first degree, that breadth is a reflection of differing values within the two educational systems. If I take out my copy house titles they again will differ in form, England seems to have difficulties with the idea of joint ownership of a solum granted to the individual flat owners within their individual titles. My late father's trust uses different terms (no remaindermen here), the leases I offer our commercial tenants differ, the rights here of say tenants of retail properties at ish are starkly different to in England, the church I was christened in differs in its practices (Nae Bishops), and of course there are various breakaway factions that will likely appear even more alien. ((Frees, Wee Frees etc) If I am charged with a crime here, say hamesucken (does England still have such) they will require corroboration to find me guilty and they might give me the third verdict, Not Proven.

Yes, there is commonality, Scots have served throughout empire, fought in wars, shared a history, but there is also a real difference, unlike say Wales or Ireland we did not fall by conquest we agreed to a document that binds the two countries in Union insofar as the two countries still wish to be in such Union.

Not really.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Union
Article 1 states "That the Two Kingdoms of Scotland and England, shall upon the 1st May next ensuing the date hereof, and forever after, be United into One Kingdom by the Name of Great Britain."


You tend not to include the prenup within the marriage ceremony.

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Re: An independent Scotland and COVID19

#337175

Postby dspp » August 31st, 2020, 3:26 pm

scrumpyjack wrote:
dspp wrote:
Nimrod103 wrote:But the other side of the coin is why would any UK or other foreign company buy assets in Scotland or invest there, with the prospect of those investments declining in value. I suspect many boardrooms have already started this process of reallocation out of Scotland.


The only reason to remain in Scotland is that they may manage to decouple themselves from Brexit madness and rejoin the EU. The same is much less true for facilities in England that have a slower and more uncertain pathway to rejoining. Believe me this topic is discussed in boardrooms wrestling with these decisions, and Brexiters have a lot to answer for.

- dspp


It is highly unlikely that the EU would admit them, at least for a few decades (if the EU lasts that long). There are many EU countries that have regions wanting to secede (Spain / Catalunia for example) who would not want to set a precedent. If, by some miracle, they were admitted they would then have a barrier with the country they do the vast majority of their trade (R UK) and free trade with lands far far away that they do much less trade with.

Still commonsense does not enter into these nationalistic debates. Who was is who said 'Patriotism is the last refuge of a scoundrel' ?


Having watched the Brexit zealots cloak themselves in the Union flag, I do not need to be reminded of what real patriotism is, and much more importantly, what it is not.

If you go and speak quietly to senior folk in the EU commission, you will find that there is a willingness to accommodate an independent Scotland's entry "very quickly". That is based on the commission's understanding of the mood amongst the European Council, who are the elected heads of state or governments. I am quite sure of my sources.

- dspp

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Re: An independent Scotland and COVID19

#337185

Postby NeilW » August 31st, 2020, 4:26 pm

Charlottesquare wrote:Do debts not arise from contract? Is there not distinct Scottish and English contract law? You have to, contract by contract,imho look at what it says vis a vis which legal framework governs the particular agreement in question.


Debts arise from statute and contract. Statue overrides contract. Breach of contract is covered by a court awarding damages and damages can be settled in the legal tender of the court.

A Scottish independence act would ensure that all Scottish debts secured on Scottish collateral are a matter for the Scottish courts and settleable under their form of legal tender - which would be in the Scottish currency.

Assuming the Scottish negotiators knew what they were doing.

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Re: An independent Scotland and COVID19

#337186

Postby NeilW » August 31st, 2020, 4:30 pm

Charlottesquare wrote:Are you not considering a closed economy with no leakage, there is leakage though, whether it be that fridge you bought or the food you ate, some of the currency created escaped your closed economy.


It can't escape. They don't use it anywhere else. The currency is not convertible. It is only exchangeable. So all you ever do is change the ownership tags on it. The currency area, entities holding the currency, is not necessarily coincident with the country's borders.

In the UK at present all government transactions operate within the Bank of England and nowhere else. The consolidated fund transfers to the reserve accounts of the commercial banks, who then transfer it back again when taxes are paid. Or the Bank of England can lend to the consolidated fund on demand via the National Loans Fund and the Ways and Means Account. Any interest paid to the Bank of England for that returns to HM Treasury via the Bank dividend - since HM Treasury owns the BoE outright.

A Scottish Reserve Bank would operate no differently. For any liability to be Scottish Pounds it has to be transitively linked to the Scottish Reserve Bank somehow. Otherwise it cannot be transferred.

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Re: An independent Scotland and COVID19

#337188

Postby NeilW » August 31st, 2020, 4:42 pm

dspp wrote:If you go and speak quietly to senior folk in the EU commission, you will find that there is a willingness to accommodate an independent Scotland's entry "very quickly". That is based on the commission's understanding of the mood amongst the European Council, who are the elected heads of state or governments. I am quite sure of my sources.


There's no doubt about that.

Which is why Scottish independence is a misnomer. What they want to do is sell Scotland down the river in the EU so that the leaders of Scotland can be lauded and feted in Brussels and have their tummies tickled.

Swapping a fiscal transfer union for a non-fiscal union is really, really stupid. Particularly for the people of Scotland.
Last edited by NeilW on August 31st, 2020, 4:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: An independent Scotland and COVID19

#337191

Postby NeilW » August 31st, 2020, 4:47 pm

Snorvey wrote:
Maybe, but im still going to have to re-read the latter part of this thread several times to try and get my head round it.


£100 paid to bod A as furlough pay. Bod A spends that at a local firm, less VAT, which becomes the income of Bod B less income tax. Bod B now has £70 which they spend at a firm, less VAT, which becomes the income of Bod C less income Tax. Bod C now has £49 which they spend... and so on.

It's just like a stone skipping across a pond, with each ripple a taxation point.

All a tax rate change does is alter the number of hops (ie. transactions for real goods and services). Reduce taxes and you get more hops. Increase taxes and you get fewer.

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Re: An independent Scotland and COVID19

#337194

Postby NeilW » August 31st, 2020, 4:58 pm

Nimrod103 wrote: The above reference says that those Scots with private income in Sterling (such as a private pension from a UK provider) would benefit


That depends whether the Scottish government learns how to use its currency. For example if I tax you 100 scottish pounds today - on pain of confiscation - but there are no scottish pounds in existence, then the value to you of those 100 scottish pounds is everything you own.

If however you have a Scottish Job Guarantee that gave 10 scottish pounds for an hour of labour, then the value of those pounds is ten hours of unskilled labour.

The value of a currency is what you have to do to get hold of it. The Buckaroo concept shows how it works dynamically

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Re: An independent Scotland and COVID19

#337222

Postby AlumniLawn » August 31st, 2020, 6:45 pm

NeilW wrote:
Nimrod103 wrote: The above reference says that those Scots with private income in Sterling (such as a private pension from a UK provider) would benefit


That depends whether the Scottish government learns how to use its currency. For example if I tax you 100 scottish pounds today - on pain of confiscation - but there are no scottish pounds in existence, then the value to you of those 100 scottish pounds is everything you own.

If however you have a Scottish Job Guarantee that gave 10 scottish pounds for an hour of labour, then the value of those pounds is ten hours of unskilled labour.

The value of a currency is what you have to do to get hold of it. The Buckaroo concept shows how it works dynamically


Well that is an informative read - thanks for posting

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Re: An independent Scotland and COVID19

#337246

Postby dspp » August 31st, 2020, 8:13 pm

NeilW wrote:
dspp wrote:If you go and speak quietly to senior folk in the EU commission, you will find that there is a willingness to accommodate an independent Scotland's entry "very quickly". That is based on the commission's understanding of the mood amongst the European Council, who are the elected heads of state or governments. I am quite sure of my sources.


There's no doubt about that.

Which is why Scottish independence is a misnomer. What they want to do is sell Scotland down the river in the EU so that the leaders of Scotland can be lauded and feted in Brussels and have their tummies tickled.

Swapping a fiscal transfer union for a non-fiscal union is really, really stupid. Particularly for the people of Scotland.


It is the sovereign right of any cat, or any peoples, to decide if they wish to have their tummies tickled. Or, equally pertinently, to obtain fiscal transfers (cloaked in whatever name) from more willing partners of their own choice.

It would seem that the European Union is a union with a clearly understood and exercisable exit clause, accessible equally by all. However the little-Englander approach to the Act of Union would appear to be a more colonialist diktat. That is telling the Scottish a message that is being heard pretty clearly.

- dspp

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Re: An independent Scotland and COVID19

#337287

Postby gryffron » August 31st, 2020, 10:51 pm

NeilW wrote:£100 paid to bod A as furlough pay. Bod A spends that at a local firm, less VAT, which becomes the income of Bod B less income tax. Bod B now has £70 which they spend at a firm, less VAT, which becomes the income of Bod C less income Tax. Bod C now has £49 which they spend... and so on.
It's just like a stone skipping across a pond, with each ripple a taxation point.
All a tax rate change does is alter the number of hops (ie. transactions for real goods and services). Reduce taxes and you get more hops. Increase taxes and you get fewer.

Perfect, until you import something. At which point the money is gone, and there is no further onward transmission. It never comes back to the originating govt.

Gryff

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Re: An independent Scotland and COVID19

#337309

Postby NeilW » September 1st, 2020, 7:29 am

gryffron wrote:Perfect, until you import something. At which point the money is gone, and there is no further onward transmission. It never comes back to the originating govt.

Gryff


How is it gone. What else are they going to do with the Sterling. Eat it? How exactly does it escape from the Bank of England reserve accounts? Precisely please - including accounting transactions. Here's the details of the structure https://youtu.be/Bh48hsslo0E. Show me where the leak is.

Have you thought of following an import transaction through to the end? With the real goods coming in one direction and the financial flow in the other - which involves the end customer using the currency they hold and the supplier receiving the currency they want to hold.

Do the balance sheets of how the financial system enables that to occur. And then you'll discover that what you believe isn't actually the case.

In reality what happens is that UK importers effectively buy the output of UK exporters. And (say) EU importers effectively buy the output of EU exporters. And the FX system which matches up that process makes it look like you're doing a normal transaction. (And yes, when you do that you'll find that UK financial savings are an export product).

Always remember we run a floating rate non-convertible currency and that alters the dynamics. We are not in the Euro - where the drain to Germany is very real.

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Re: An independent Scotland and COVID19

#337313

Postby NeilW » September 1st, 2020, 8:04 am

dspp wrote:It is the sovereign right of any cat, or any peoples, to decide if they wish to have their tummies tickled. Or, equally pertinently, to obtain fiscal transfers (cloaked in whatever name) from more willing partners of their own choice.


There are no fiscal transfers from the EU. See Greece for details.

Scotland would be a net contributor to the EU budget (payable in Euros) the same are Ireland.

Presumably then you would be all for the suspension of the Barnett Formula so that the current Scottish people can experience precisely what it will be like in the EU under your chosen regime.

A genuine independent Scotland may be sensible. Becoming an EU colony does not.

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Re: An independent Scotland and COVID19

#337314

Postby Dod101 » September 1st, 2020, 8:07 am

I am no economist but NeilW is clearly an adherent of Modern MonetaryTheory and it is all very convincing but if you Google 'Flaws in Modern Monetary Theory you will find as many articles pointing out the other side of the argument as support MMT.

Before taking all his stuff at face value, we need to see the entire picture and I at least am not competent enough nor do I have the interest to study it so the likes of NeilW get a free reign. He may be correct and it all sounds very convincing but if it were that simple we would never have a monetary crisis nor Argentina like inflation as far as I can see.

Dod

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Re: An independent Scotland and COVID19

#337328

Postby Nimrod103 » September 1st, 2020, 9:03 am

Dod101 wrote:I am no economist but NeilW is clearly an adherent of Modern MonetaryTheory and it is all very convincing but if you Google 'Flaws in Modern Monetary Theory you will find as many articles pointing out the other side of the argument as support MMT.

Before taking all his stuff at face value, we need to see the entire picture and I at least am not competent enough nor do I have the interest to study it so the likes of NeilW get a free reign. He may be correct and it all sounds very convincing but if it were that simple we would never have a monetary crisis nor Argentina like inflation as far as I can see.

Dod


MMT? Convincing?
I don't believe a word of it.

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Re: An independent Scotland and COVID19

#337337

Postby Charlottesquare » September 1st, 2020, 9:32 am

NeilW wrote:
Charlottesquare wrote:Are you not considering a closed economy with no leakage, there is leakage though, whether it be that fridge you bought or the food you ate, some of the currency created escaped your closed economy.


It can't escape. They don't use it anywhere else. The currency is not convertible. It is only exchangeable. So all you ever do is change the ownership tags on it. The currency area, entities holding the currency, is not necessarily coincident with the country's borders.

.


Sorry, this is not clear to me, you seemed to be suggesting earlier that the tax take reverts to the money supply, in effect the circulation of funds taxed on every circuit eventually equal to the supply. You then say,

"P.S. Ideally you don't want anybody holding your currency. You want them to spend it as soon as they get it. That way more people get an income, and more transactions happen. Necessarily as a result of the mathematics if everybody spends the currency and nobody holds it, and the tax rate is more than zero then taxation will exactly match the initial spend almost straight away. That's a simple geometric progression your average 15 year old can do."

I have pointed out that the money supply cannot be captive if you want to import anything into your economy , and of course we do otherwise we starve, accordingly what is to be used to buy goods from outside Scotland other than one's currency

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Re: An independent Scotland and COVID19

#337339

Postby SalvorHardin » September 1st, 2020, 9:34 am

Dod101 wrote:I am no economist but NeilW is clearly an adherent of Modern MonetaryTheory and it is all very convincing but if you Google 'Flaws in Modern Monetary Theory you will find as many articles pointing out the other side of the argument as support MMT.

Before taking all his stuff at face value, we need to see the entire picture and I at least am not competent enough nor do I have the interest to study it so the likes of NeilW get a free reign. He may be correct and it all sounds very convincing but if it were that simple we would never have a monetary crisis nor Argentina like inflation as far as I can see.

MMT is nothing more than Keynesian stimulus on steroids, presented as if it is something different.

MMT has the same flaws as Keynes' policies, only of a much greater order of magnitude. Keynes' works provided that there is spare capacity and the money is spent sensibly, not used to pay people to dig holes and then fill them up (activity which increases GDP but produced no useful output).

Politicians find it difficult to turn off the Keynes / MMT spending tap, since money printing enables them to buy votes and reward cronies at the expense of the more productive parts of the economy (which then gets hit with the inflation tax).

It would be entertaining to see a newly independent Scotland try MMT. It would have to have its own currency to do so, because if it used Sterling or the Euro it wouldn't be able to print money. The alternative, MMT whilst keeping Sterling or adopting the Euro, would mean that Scotland would have to borrow heavily in a foreign currency at much higher interest rates than it was used to when it was part of the UK. That's South American behaviour and we know where this tends to end up.

The Scottish currency which would be an immediate target for speculators. Stagflation, a word from the 1970s, would return north of the border.

Yeah, go for it Scotland. I live in England, resent the Barnett formula and detest the racist SNP.

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Re: An independent Scotland and COVID19

#337344

Postby Charlottesquare » September 1st, 2020, 10:05 am

NeilW wrote:
Snorvey wrote:
Maybe, but im still going to have to re-read the latter part of this thread several times to try and get my head round it.


£100 paid to bod A as furlough pay. Bod A spends that at a local firm, less VAT, which becomes the income of Bod B less income tax. Bod B now has £70 which they spend at a firm, less VAT, which becomes the income of Bod C less income Tax. Bod C now has £49 which they spend... and so on.

It's just like a stone skipping across a pond, with each ripple a taxation point.

All a tax rate change does is alter the number of hops (ie. transactions for real goods and services). Reduce taxes and you get more hops. Increase taxes and you get fewer.


In effect a multiplier, very Keynesian, however you are assuming no leakage, an MPC of I assume 1, in addition you seem to believe the circulation speed is higher than it would be in reality as you certainly ignore input vat in your example.

VAT is if course a tax on valued added, as per the name, the tax take at each step is accordingly much smaller than you indicate as each vat registered trader in the chain reclaims the vat on his/her inputs.

So Co A sells for £120 inc vat, its sales are £100 its output vat £20, but it does not pay £20 to HMRC because to make that sale it had vatable inputs of £80, the vat on these was £16, so the vat paid to HMRC is actually only £4. This makes sense as the value added is only £20 (100-80) and 20% of £20 is £4.

Your example assumes the speed of circulation is sufficient to recoup the money issued by taxation before it leaves your economy or gets saved but this may well not be the case- if your theory were to always hold true one could merely increase the money supply with no impact on anything, but this is patently not the case, there are limited opportunities for these forms of actions and the impact does come back to haunt later given an economy's ability to suck up what you do today and then make you pay for your error much later (as I know to my cost after taking part in the Hewlett Packard schools economic simulation competition back in 1977 where my fiscal policy somewhat rebounded on me).

I will refer you to the HHGTTG, the part with the management consultants, the leaves and a forest fire to cure the resultant inflation.

Maybe the economics I studied is out of date, it was certainly long enough ago, but afraid I do not buy into the free lunch approach .

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Re: An independent Scotland and COVID19

#337350

Postby gryffron » September 1st, 2020, 10:19 am

NeilW wrote:How is it gone. What else are they going to do with the Sterling. Eat it?

NeilW. I am well aware of your theory of infinitely circulating money. But you present it as indisputable fact, and the solution to all the world's financial problems. But real world experience says your theory does not fit the facts.

Imbalance between imports and exports, or money printing leads to currency imbalance. Market supply and demand for each currency means currency rates move relative to each other. Effectively destroying value in one currency and creating value in another. Same number of pounds, but less "value".

So if your theory is correct, explain hyper-inflation and why currencies can ever fail. This HAS happened in the past. 1930s Germany. Argentina. Zimbabwe. And all the same conditions would exist in iScotland.

Gryff

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Re: An independent Scotland and COVID19

#337361

Postby SalvorHardin » September 1st, 2020, 10:49 am

gryffron wrote:
NeilW wrote:So if your theory is correct, explain hyper-inflation and why currencies can ever fail. This HAS happened in the past. 1930s Germany. Argentina. Zimbabwe. And all the same conditions would exist in iScotland.

The MMT supporters can't explain this.

Modern Monetary Theory rests on the lack of inflation after the quantitative easing programme during and after the 2008 financial crisis. The assumption is that because it worked then it will work every time it is tried.

Inflation is a case of too much money chasing too few goods. If the economy has spare capacity then printing money doesn't stimulate inflation as much as if there is little spare capacity. The MMT assumption is that the economy always has spare capacity (a ridiculous assumption).

Of course if the MMT goes wild and prints too much money, it doesn't matter how much spare capacity there is. Inflation takes off and if they keep on printing then hyperinflation. That would not be amusing for those of us in England - living next door to a failed state is not a nice position to be in because of all the problems that it exports.

Darien Mark 2 would probably be the result. Maybe the SNP's beloved EU can pick up the tab this time

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Re: An independent Scotland and COVID19

#337364

Postby scrumpyjack » September 1st, 2020, 11:11 am

Yes quite right Salvor. But inflation is also about confidence and expectation. If people expect money to lose value and prices to go up, it becomes self fulfilling. Workers demand pay increases to compensate for inflation, employers grant the increases and put up their prices to recover the costs, consumers pay the higher prices because they expect prices to go up, and the cycle repeats with higher and higher inflation. Company accounting and taxation are not built to deal with inflation so businesses declare non-existing profits, which solely reflect inflation, and HMG taxes those unreal profits. That is what happened in the 70s and even a Labour government had to introduce 'stock relief' and various other measures to stop companies en masse becoming insolvent because of these problems. It took Maggie Thatcher to fix it,and it was very hard, but worthwhile, her doing so.


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