The Lemon Fool

NeilW wrote:

dspp wrote:Maybe you haven't noticed problems but some of us do. Especially those of us who put containers on ships and export them. The last 6-months was, as far as we were concerned, our third go at preparing for Brexit - and frankly we really don't give a $%%^& if the Cons are trying to censor us off the airwaves.

As I said the rest of us, the majority, haven't noticed. Those exporting will of course now be paying the full cost of doing that job given the rest of us will no longer be subsidising it by paying protectionist tariffs and fees. That's to be expected.

Charge the customers accordingly and it will all sort itself out. Even mainstream analysts acknowledge that import costs into a protectionist area end up being paid by those inside the wall. It'll probably take the EU a while to work that out given how stubborn they are.

I will not pass your thoughts along to our unemployed on this occasion, as I try to keep politics outside our factory gates.

If you were to go down to the dole queue and say this to them in person you might receive a much more direct response.

- dspp

dspp wrote:I'l'll not pass your thoughts along to our unemployed on this occasion,

You should do given that I am advocating that they have an alternative job to go to in the local area at the living wage paid directly by the Bank of England. They end up on the famous "volunteer list" and local politics can discuss what they can do for everybody.

From furlough to full employment

My polling says that is wildly popular in Scotland, and of course it is impossible in the EU since it would drag every unemployed person in the EEA into the UK waving their "right to work".

The "what about the jobs, can I have a bail out" approach needs to die. Capitalist firms should close when their trade dries up to release resources for others to use more effectively. Otherwise we end up with Socialism by the back door.

NeilW wrote:The "what about the jobs, can I have a bail out" approach needs to die. Capitalist firms should close when their trade dries up to release resources for others to use more effectively. Otherwise we end up with Socialism by the back door

Interesting perspective given it appears to have been the preferred approach of a particularly right wing nationalist populist govt so far (and looks to have worked for them)
- next thing they'll be telling you what to eat and having state condoned exercise sessions?

Perhaps this is a time for pragmatism over ideology? Or would be... if they'd have a bloody proper review when it calmed down?!

-sd

dspp wrote:

NeilW wrote:

dspp wrote:Maybe you haven't noticed problems but some of us do. Especially those of us who put containers on ships and export them. The last 6-months was, as far as we were concerned, our third go at preparing for Brexit - and frankly we really don't give a $%%^& if the Cons are trying to censor us off the airwaves.

As I said the rest of us, the majority, haven't noticed. Those exporting will of course now be paying the full cost of doing that job given the rest of us will no longer be subsidising it by paying protectionist tariffs and fees. That's to be expected.

Charge the customers accordingly and it will all sort itself out. Even mainstream analysts acknowledge that import costs into a protectionist area end up being paid by those inside the wall. It'll probably take the EU a while to work that out given how stubborn they are.

I will not pass your thoughts along to our unemployed on this occasion, as I try to keep politics outside our factory gates.

If you were to go down to the dole queue and say this to them in person you might receive a much more direct response.

- dspp

I find it hard to believe you would keep politics out of anything. You're basically Chief Dreyfuss at this point. Just substitute muttering "Clouseau" with "Brexit".

But an exporter like yourself must surely have already seen today's Markit PMI for the Eurozone
https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/ ... ab81f57547
What do you make of it?

Rising inflation and rising unemployment??? Wouldn't happen if NeilW were in charge ...

No, of course. The reason someone who "puts containers on ships" to the EU isn't putting quite so many containers on ships to the EU (depite a very nice drop in the exchange rate that you seem to resent) is because, err, Brexit.

1. I can be very sure politics does not enter my doings at work, and I don't see it around me either. Individuals may talk to each other, but the job does not talk politics, except in the objective terms of scenario planning. It is simply too divisive - especially in Scotland, and NI, but increasingly so in post-Brexit England. Here in TLF you may think you know my thoughts, but that is not the way of things at work.

2. I am issuing redundancies which include folk in their 50s and 60s with 30-40 yrs of continuous service. Looking around the area I can see that some of them will struggle to ever get employed again. Far away from the frictionless world of economic theory is the far stickier reality. That is both a personal tragedy for many of them, and an economic drag for wider society.

3. There is some real voodoo economics being proposed on this thread, which I am staying out of.

4. My sense - when I am in Scotland - is that there is a substantial contingent that was prepared to vote Remain in IndyRef, and voted Remain in BrexitRef. They are keen on Union. But in the next IndyRef referendum, which imho will come, they will again vote Remain, but this time to Remain/Rejoin the European Union via Scottish independence. Many of them were also previously Conservative voters, and I don't think they will ever vote Conservative again. I am as interested to hear the opinion of others in Scotland on this, as I can only listen to bits of gossip at work, since it really is an area we try to avoid except when it directly affects our planning.

regards, dspp

dspp wrote:1. I can be very sure politics does not enter my doings at work, and I don't see it around me either. Individuals may talk to each other, but the job does not talk politics, except in the objective terms of scenario planning. It is simply too divisive - especially in Scotland, and NI, but increasingly so in post-Brexit England. Here in TLF you may think you know my thoughts, but that is not the way of things at work.

2. I am issuing redundancies which include folk in their 50s and 60s with 30-40 yrs of continuous service. Looking around the area I can see that some of them will struggle to ever get employed again. Far away from the frictionless world of economic theory is the far stickier reality. That is both a personal tragedy for many of them, and an economic drag for wider society.

3. There is some real voodoo economics being proposed on this thread, which I am staying out of.

4. My sense - when I am in Scotland - is that there is a substantial contingent that was prepared to vote Remain in IndyRef, and voted Remain in BrexitRef. They are keen on Union. But in the next IndyRef referendum, which imho will come, they will again vote Remain, but this time to Remain/Rejoin the European Union via Scottish independence. Many of them were also previously Conservative voters, and I don't think they will ever vote Conservative again. I am as interested to hear the opinion of others in Scotland on this, as I can only listen to bits of gossip at work, since it really is an area we try to avoid except when it directly affects our planning.

regards, dspp

I am one of the former Conservative voters in Scotland who will struggle to give them my x, most of the time, except re regional list to the Scottish Parliament and local authority elections, it was a waste of time but it was the thought that counted.

I was also fairly vigorous online in my defence of the Union in 2014, I doubt I will again bother -fool me once and all that.

I can make no short term economic case for Scottish Independence but current Westminster behavior is starting to suggest that in the long term being ex England & Wales may well be safer- stable government tending to be good government.

It is all a bit of a kick in the proverbials for me, as someone whose father moved here as a child in the 1930s (Army posting for my grandfather who was from Wiltshire with my grandmother from London), my upbringing, whilst Scottish, had certain other English factors blended in, especially as I never knew my grandparents/any family on my maternal Scottish side ( Camerons ex Rannoch living in Perth and then later Dundee), accordingly I have always considered myself British (though in Scotland v England sporting events I am always Scottish) but when all is now said and done I now think breakup is inevitable and I am not sure that my sadness at such a happening will be as it would have been in 2014- this is true throughout my immediate family, I think my wife and two grown up children have crossed the house, so to speak,though with my son it is academic as he is getting married to an American and moving to the USA as soon as his right to work there is sorted so he likely will have no vote if Indy Ref 2 happens.

All really totally unnecessary but now I think the divorce is inevitable.

Charlottesquare wrote:
I can make no short term economic case for Scottish Independence but current Westminster behavior is starting to suggest that in the long term being ex England & Wales may well be safer- stable government tending to be good government.

It is all a bit of a kick in the proverbials for me, as someone whose father moved here as a child in the 1930s (Army posting for my grandfather who was from Wiltshire with my grandmother from London), my upbringing, whilst Scottish, had certain other English factors blended in, especially as I never knew my grandparents/any family on my maternal Scottish side ( Camerons ex Rannoch living in Perth and then later Dundee), accordingly I have always considered myself British (though in Scotland v England sporting events I am always Scottish) but when all is now said and done I now think breakup is inevitable and I am not sure that my sadness at such a happening will be as it would have been in 2014- this is true throughout my immediate family, I think my wife and two grown up children have crossed the house, so to speak,though with my son it is academic as he is getting married to an American and moving to the USA as soon as his right to work there is sorted so he likely will have no vote if Indy Ref 2 happens.

All really totally unnecessary but now I think the divorce is inevitable.

The ironymeter is off the scales when Brexiteers talk about Scottish independence, with their constant focus on the economic impact of independence, given that we still aren't talking the economic impact of different options on UK/EU trade negotiations (most particularly "no deal").

You have my sympathy, as uncertain times lie ahead, and there's a danger of nationalism being whipped up in any push for independence. We're planning to wait for the dust to settle and then we might make our main home in the Borders, but keeping an address in England to be eligible for NHS benefits and pension uplifts. We too would prefer to live in a country with a more stable government - and indeed we did before 2016.

Charlottesquare wrote:
I am one of the former Conservative voters in Scotland who will struggle to give them my x, most of the time, except re regional list to the Scottish Parliament and local authority elections, it was a waste of time but it was the thought that counted.

I was also fairly vigorous online in my defence of the Union in 2014, I doubt I will again bother -fool me once and all that.

I can make no short term economic case for Scottish Independence but current Westminster behavior is starting to suggest that in the long term being ex England & Wales may well be safer- stable government tending to be good government.

It is all a bit of a kick in the proverbials for me, as someone whose father moved here as a child in the 1930s (Army posting for my grandfather who was from Wiltshire with my grandmother from London), my upbringing, whilst Scottish, had certain other English factors blended in, especially as I never knew my grandparents/any family on my maternal Scottish side ( Camerons ex Rannoch living in Perth and then later Dundee), accordingly I have always considered myself British (though in Scotland v England sporting events I am always Scottish) but when all is now said and done I now think breakup is inevitable and I am not sure that my sadness at such a happening will be as it would have been in 2014- this is true throughout my immediate family, I think my wife and two grown up children have crossed the house, so to speak,though with my son it is academic as he is getting married to an American and moving to the USA as soon as his right to work there is sorted so he likely will have no vote if Indy Ref 2 happens.

All really totally unnecessary but now I think the divorce is inevitable.

I understand your concern, but you have to remember that the current BoJo government won't be here for ever, and neither will the Nicola government. You can't decide on the long-term future for Scotland based on short-term issues.

--kiloran

kiloran wrote:

Charlottesquare wrote:
I am one of the former Conservative voters in Scotland who will struggle to give them my x, most of the time, except re regional list to the Scottish Parliament and local authority elections, it was a waste of time but it was the thought that counted.

I was also fairly vigorous online in my defence of the Union in 2014, I doubt I will again bother -fool me once and all that.

I can make no short term economic case for Scottish Independence but current Westminster behavior is starting to suggest that in the long term being ex England & Wales may well be safer- stable government tending to be good government.

It is all a bit of a kick in the proverbials for me, as someone whose father moved here as a child in the 1930s (Army posting for my grandfather who was from Wiltshire with my grandmother from London), my upbringing, whilst Scottish, had certain other English factors blended in, especially as I never knew my grandparents/any family on my maternal Scottish side ( Camerons ex Rannoch living in Perth and then later Dundee), accordingly I have always considered myself British (though in Scotland v England sporting events I am always Scottish) but when all is now said and done I now think breakup is inevitable and I am not sure that my sadness at such a happening will be as it would have been in 2014- this is true throughout my immediate family, I think my wife and two grown up children have crossed the house, so to speak,though with my son it is academic as he is getting married to an American and moving to the USA as soon as his right to work there is sorted so he likely will have no vote if Indy Ref 2 happens.

All really totally unnecessary but now I think the divorce is inevitable.

I understand your concern, but you have to remember that the current BoJo government won't be here for ever, and neither will the Nicola government. You can't decide on the long-term future for Scotland based on short-term issues.

--kiloran

That really has broken my irony-meter ! The long term issue of a) being independent from the English, and b) being in Union as part of the EU, is what is highly motivating Scottish voters. Many of them are prepared to set aside their shoter term preferences and aversion to the SNP and individual politicians in pursuit of those longer term aims.

- dspp

dspp wrote:

kiloran wrote:

Charlottesquare wrote:
I am one of the former Conservative voters in Scotland who will struggle to give them my x, most of the time, except re regional list to the Scottish Parliament and local authority elections, it was a waste of time but it was the thought that counted.

I was also fairly vigorous online in my defence of the Union in 2014, I doubt I will again bother -fool me once and all that.

I can make no short term economic case for Scottish Independence but current Westminster behavior is starting to suggest that in the long term being ex England & Wales may well be safer- stable government tending to be good government.

It is all a bit of a kick in the proverbials for me, as someone whose father moved here as a child in the 1930s (Army posting for my grandfather who was from Wiltshire with my grandmother from London), my upbringing, whilst Scottish, had certain other English factors blended in, especially as I never knew my grandparents/any family on my maternal Scottish side ( Camerons ex Rannoch living in Perth and then later Dundee), accordingly I have always considered myself British (though in Scotland v England sporting events I am always Scottish) but when all is now said and done I now think breakup is inevitable and I am not sure that my sadness at such a happening will be as it would have been in 2014- this is true throughout my immediate family, I think my wife and two grown up children have crossed the house, so to speak,though with my son it is academic as he is getting married to an American and moving to the USA as soon as his right to work there is sorted so he likely will have no vote if Indy Ref 2 happens.

All really totally unnecessary but now I think the divorce is inevitable.

I understand your concern, but you have to remember that the current BoJo government won't be here for ever, and neither will the Nicola government. You can't decide on the long-term future for Scotland based on short-term issues.

--kiloran

That really has broken my irony-meter ! The long term issue of a) being independent from the English, and b) being in Union as part of the EU, is what is highly motivating Scottish voters. Many of them are prepared to set aside their shoter term preferences and aversion to the SNP and individual politicians in pursuit of those longer term aims.

- dspp

For many, I feel that the wish to be part of the EU again is not quite as strong as the wish to be isolated from BoJo

--kiloran

kiloran wrote:For many, I feel that the wish to be part of the EU again is not quite as strong as the wish to be isolated from BoJo

Rather, it's the final straw...

Scott.

Snorvey wrote:

NeilW wrote:

Charlottesquare wrote: I have real difficulty feeling any connection or warmth to those currently espousing the hardest possible end to the UK transition from the EU,

How is it hard? We've been without full export to the EU for six months during the crisis and nobody has noticed.

The correct approach the UK should take is to eliminate import tariffs on our side, let the EU do what they want and then make sure everybody has a job and an income via an alternative job guarantee.

I've been reading (and re-reading) your blog on this and MMT Neil.

From my uneducated viewpoint , could it be that the Government is manoeuvring itself into this position?

It kinda looks that way with their stance on Europe, the furlough scheme etc etc.

The Russians used to term that, "they pretend to pay us, and we pretend to work". The point being that you can set all of Britain (or wherever) to digging ditches all day long in an effort to give everyone a job, but if none of that produces food then they will all starve. And if the local farmers & factories are all wiped out because they cannot produce in competition with imports washing in, then no-one in the UK will be able to - in the long term - afford those imports. It is these sorts of traps that developing economies can get into if they head up some cul de sacs. It would in ordinary circumstances be odd to see a developed economy deliberately committing suicide in this fashion.

regards, dspp

Snorvey wrote:

NeilW wrote:

Charlottesquare wrote: I have real difficulty feeling any connection or warmth to those currently espousing the hardest possible end to the UK transition from the EU,

How is it hard? We've been without full export to the EU for six months during the crisis and nobody has noticed.

The correct approach the UK should take is to eliminate import tariffs on our side, let the EU do what they want and then make sure everybody has a job and an income via an alternative job guarantee.

I've been reading (and re-reading) your blog on this and MMT Neil.

From my uneducated viewpoint , could it be that the Government is manoeuvring itself into this position?

It kinda looks that way with their stance on Europe, the furlough scheme etc etc.

Indiscriminately removing tarrifs would flatten the farming sector and, even if it were desirable, implementing a workfare type scheme would be a huge undertaking which it isn't possible to implement in the timescale.

Snorvey wrote:

dspp wrote:

Snorvey wrote:
I've been reading (and re-reading) your blog on this and MMT Neil.

From my uneducated viewpoint , could it be that the Government is manoeuvring itself into this position?

It kinda looks that way with their stance on Europe, the furlough scheme etc etc.

The Russians used to term that, "they pretend to pay us, and we pretend to work". The point being that you can set all of Britain (or wherever) to digging ditches all day long in an effort to give everyone a job, but if none of that produces food then they will all starve. And if the local farmers & factories are all wiped out because they cannot produce in competition with imports washing in, then no-one in the UK will be able to - in the long term - afford those imports. It is these sorts of traps that developing economies can get into if they head up some cul de sacs. It would in ordinary circumstances be odd to see a developed economy deliberately committing suicide in this fashion.

regards, dspp

The Russians used to term that, "they pretend to pay us, and we pretend to work".

On that aspect, I can see a million things that need to be done under a JG scheme, without the need to pointlessly dig holes or whatever.

Working on farms......caring for the vulnerable.....tidying the place up a bit.....none of it particularly alluring work. But it needs doing.

Funny how the successful economies of east and SE Asia have a different mantra - "if I don't work, nobody will pay me (nor feed me either)".

Snorvey wrote:Funny how the successful economies of east and SE Asia have a different mantra - "if I don't work, nobody will pay me (nor feed me either)".

Are those the economies where folk work for a dollar a day in sweatshops making iphones for fat westerners?

They work for a dollar a day in Singapore? You are havin a larf!
I lived in Singapore when the Pound was worth 5 Spore dollars. It is now worth 1.75 Spore dollars.

Edit to add that in Singapore, it was very much the Chinese ethos of 'no work, no eat' that applied. I just paraphrased it. I think the same ethos applies to Communist China, so it is not just a capitalist thing.

Snorvey wrote:Well you didn't specifically say Singapore did you?

Mind you, I don't suppose the 400,000 + migrant workers housed in Singapore's dormitories are paid all that much. Or the pensioners who are forced to sell paper tissues to diners at hawker centres, or collect cardboard and tin cans to put food in their bellies.

But lets see how Singapore gets on in the future eh? A supposed meritocracy (read cronyism) country with no natural resources and caught in the middle of a US-China trade spat with a global pandemic raging all around. It's an interesting one for sure.

The Singaporeans certainly had the foresight to bring in migrant workers to solve the labour shortages caused by their booming economy, thus giving them the flexibility to downsize if things went badly. So much more intelligent than our approach since WW2 of importing masses of alien populations on a permanent basis.
But it isn't just Singapore. Thailand, Philippines, Indonesia, Taiwan, South Korea, Vietnam, India. Look how well they are all doing, with poverty massively reduced or even eliminated in these places. All without a welfare state like that of the UK.

Nimrod103 wrote:

Snorvey wrote:Well you didn't specifically say Singapore did you?

Mind you, I don't suppose the 400,000 + migrant workers housed in Singapore's dormitories are paid all that much. Or the pensioners who are forced to sell paper tissues to diners at hawker centres, or collect cardboard and tin cans to put food in their bellies.

But lets see how Singapore gets on in the future eh? A supposed meritocracy (read cronyism) country with no natural resources and caught in the middle of a US-China trade spat with a global pandemic raging all around. It's an interesting one for sure.

The Singaporeans certainly had the foresight to bring in migrant workers to solve the labour shortages caused by their booming economy, thus giving them the flexibility to downsize if things went badly. So much more intelligent than our approach since WW2 of importing masses of alien populations on a permanent basis.

WWII?
Britain's been importing people since the Beaker people were displaced

-sd

Snorvey wrote:Aye, it's booming right enough



Singapore’s economy contracted by 42.9% in the second quarter of 2020 on an annualized, seasonally-adjusted basis compared to the previous quarter, the Ministry of Trade and Industry said.
The latest update on Singapore’s gross domestic product was worse than the official advance estimate released last month.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/11/singapo ... -data.html

All that with the longest working hours of any city / country (it occasionally swaps with the likes of Tokyo). Mainly because they're too scared to go home before the boss.

Their economy is suffering because S'pore is an export oriented country, and their markets have been hit hard. They are also an international business and tourism focus, which has virtually come to a halt. They will bounce back as the whole World bounces back.
As to working hours, you seem to despise hard work? It is mainly the Chinese culture of striving to do well, and ensure your family (and the country as a whole) succeeds. If only we still had that work ethic here, especially in our public servants.

Nimrod103 wrote:As to working hours, you seem to despise hard work? It is mainly the Chinese culture of striving to do well, and ensure your family (and the country as a whole) succeeds. If only we still had that work ethic here, especially in our public servants.

We should go back to the '16 hours a day 6 days a week' that factory workers experienced in the 19th century. None of this namby-pamby weekday leisure time and 2 day weekends. Make Britain great again.

Not us of course, obviously, just the 'others'...