The vaccine

[Bouleversee]

I was told by an "expert" that the Pfizer vaccine had been tested on the elderly and the highly vulnerable and was safe and effective, though one might get mild symptoms as with the flu vaccine but one might be infectious so we would have to continue wearing masks etc. In other words, not much would have changed except the onus for mask wearing etc. to protect others would be on me rather than others to protect me and indoor visits would still not be entirely safe. Big sigh! However, in the fullness of time, when everyone prepared to have it will have been offered and received a vaccine, presumably the mask wearing etc. will not be required.

All still a bit iffy, however, which might explain why, according to an article in Sun. Times today, thousands of health staff (are) set to refuse Covid
vaccine. Hundreds of thousands of NHS and care workers may, it says, choose ot to have the coronovirus vaccine, though there are more than 50 outbreaks a day in care homes and hospitals. (258 outbreaks in care homes and 99 in hospitals in the past week and cases in some NHS trusts have doubled in past week). Considering care home residents have not been allowed visitors, one can only assume that it is the staff who are bringing in the virus so why are they so reluctant to have the jab? Could it be that most of them have had the infection already and don't want to risk a new product?

Last week I thought my jab would be imminent according to what I was hearing in the press and on the news but now they are talking about by next Easter. I wonder what has changed this.

Could someone remind me when the Moderna vaccine is likely to be available. As things stand a.t.m. neither the AZN/Oxford one nor the Pfizer one are without drawbacks.

[UncleEbenezer]

Last week I thought my jab would be imminent according to what I was hearing in the press and on the news but now they are talking about by next Easter. I wonder what has changed this.

Don't hold your breath. It's over-80s (and there are more of you than our clowns' logistics can deal with), plus others like health workers.

Spoke to someone fractionally older than the Queen this morning. He's not holding his breath for it, either. Talking of which, perhaps senior public figures like Her Majesty could be setting an example?

[6Tricia]

Had a call from a friend in Torquay this morning - she has an appointment for the vaccine this coming Wednesday at the already set up centre in Torquay. Apparently her GP put her name forward. She is over 80 and has some health issues, but although I am 2 years older I've heard nothing from my GP, so I guess it's up to the individual GP to make the decision! My friend knows her doctor very well so that probably makes a difference too - whereas I doubt my GP would even recognise me! It's been more than a year since I met him, a new addition to the staff, and I haven't been back.

My name will surface soon enough. I'm not very mobile and can't get out much so don't have a lot of contact with other people to worry about.

Tricia

[Lootman]

Could someone remind me when the Moderna vaccine is likely to be available. As things stand a.t.m. neither the AZN/Oxford one nor the Pfizer one are without drawbacks.

I feel the same way but it has not been approved yet anywhere.

It is about 1-2 weeks behind the Pfizer vaccine so will probably be approved by the US FDA later this month. In the UK, I do not know. But it is the one I want as well, and I am willing to travel and pay to get it, rather than accept second best (the other two).

[1nvest]

Of the (approaching) 65,000 deaths ... I recently heard that a large proportion of those would have occurred pretty much anyway. Just loosely assuming 80%, leaving 13,000 down to Covid-19 - not that dissimilar to a yearly flu casualty rate despite no vaccine. There is a risk that the vaccines could instigate a higher number of casualties due to yet unknown reasons. Let alone all of the indirect consequences of the many locking down to protect the few, suicides, poverty, mental breakdowns, relationships breakdowns ...etc. And now there's also talk of a new strain (perhaps they'll call it Covid-20).

Starting to opine that its all made up to get carbon emissions down quickly due to nearing the sea level trigger temperature level where massive amounts of methane bubble out to rapidly accelerate global warming and that come mid 2021 we'll still be confined within this open prison situation.

Tiawan, another island nation, with a third of the population of the UK, has had 7 Covid deaths. The British islands ... has proportionately a higher rate of reported deaths than the US (that has a population 5 times that of the UK). Australia - as a island, managed to be the only country/continent that avoided the Spanish flu epidemic a little over a century ago. Looks like the numbers are a function of competence.

[XFool]

...Zzzzzz!

[vrdiver]

Of the (approaching) 65,000 deaths ... I recently heard that a large proportion of those would have occurred pretty much anyway.

Using the standard WHO life tables, YLL per COVID-19 death was 14 for men and 12 for women. After adjustment for number and type of LTCs, the mean YLL was slightly lower, but remained high (13 and 11 years for men and women, respectively).

https://wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/5-75

YLL=Years of Life Lost.

This has been debated and refuted here before. How many more times will this have to be repeated?

[gryffron]

The real problem is that the Pfizer jab does not appear to prevent transmission, although they are still testing that. So if everyone gets the jab, the virus will never go as it will just pass round and round between the population. Really we need a jab which kills the virus and I believe the AZ one does that, so really is a better bet long term.

Does that mean that everybody becomes a carrier of the virus, even though they don't suffer from it?
i.e. it cures the symptoms but not the disease?

No. That's nothing like right. Everyone will eventually fight off any infection, or die trying. No-one is a perpetual carrier.

Disease is like a war. Infections are trying to invade your body, and your body has various defensive mechanisms to fight them off. As with any war, the QUANTITY of combatants on each side is critical. The balance of invaders vs defenders.

Masks, social distancing and good ventilation can all serve to reduce the quantity of invaders.
Your defences, T-cells and antibodies, can be boosted having experienced similar Coronavirus infections (some colds) in the recent past, or by a vaccine. They are greatly diminished by age. There may be other factors, genetics, weight, diabetes, general health, nutrition, vitamin D.

AIUI: The virus' first point of invasion is the nose and throat. Which is where it enters the body - the Normandy beaches. Since antibodies are produced in muscle tissue, it can take some time for a vaccinated body to realise it has a problem, start producing antibodies, and those same to reach the nose and throat to defeat the virus. During that initial infection period, the person may be producing and spreading a small quantity of the virus. This is what has been observed with Pfizer vaccine. I see no reason why it should be different for others.
So an immunised person may still be minimally infected and minimally spreading, but if most of the population are immunised and spreading only a small load, very few others will catch it. The R number will be very low, and the virus will eventually die out.
Some people who have received the vaccine gain no benefit at all. This doesn't matter! As I keep pointing out on every single covid thread, the vaccine exists to protect society as a whole, NOT the individual. If it works for enough people, it reduces quantity of spread, R number, and eventually the disease will die out. Typical modern flu vaccines may directly benefit as few as 50%, but the reduction in R number this causes prevents those diseases spreading and thus benefits everyone.

The serious disease problems occur when the virus reaches the lungs. This is also when maximum viral output is produced and maximum spread occurs. This is what kills you and/or spreads the disease very quickly to other members of the population. However, the lungs are surrounded by muscle, where the vaccine produced antibodies are, so for a vaccinated person, infection should be quickly defeated in the lungs, hence the disease either affects them minimally, or not at all.

Gryff

[Mike4]

Dr John's video yesterday states that in the first week of the vaccination programme, 137,000 people have been vaccinated.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wb_0FB7 ... hnCampbell

Disappointing to hear Boris on the radio yesterday referring to the vaccination as an inoculation. It isn't.

[mc2fool]

Does that mean that everybody becomes a carrier of the virus, even though they don't suffer from it?
i.e. it cures the symptoms but not the disease?

No. That's nothing like right. Everyone will eventually fight off any infection, or die trying. No-one is a perpetual carrier.

HIV
Typhoid
Herpes
Chlamydia

Can all be lifelong asymptomatic contagious infections ("perpetual carrier"). Probably some others too.

The most famous example, of course, is Mary Mallon, aka Typhoid Mary, who was a healthy carrier of the disease her whole life (from birth) and infected scores of people before she was forcibly quarantined for almost thirty years. She eventually died, aged 69, of pneumonia.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3959940/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mary_Mallon

[kempiejon]

No. That's nothing like right. Everyone will eventually fight off any infection, or die trying. No-one is a perpetual carrier.

HIV
Typhoid
Herpes
Chlamydia

Can all be lifelong asymptomatic contagious infections ("perpetual carrier"). Probably some others too.

mc2fool, I thought that too and herpes and HIV were my go to examples but didn't comment as perhaps gryffron was referring to this specific virus, and I think that people either succumb or the virus is consumed by the immune system or dies out in the host - otherwise what would be the point of isolating and quarantine?

[mc2fool]

No. That's nothing like right. Everyone will eventually fight off any infection, or die trying. No-one is a perpetual carrier.

HIV
Typhoid
Herpes
Chlamydia

Can all be lifelong asymptomatic contagious infections ("perpetual carrier"). Probably some others too.

mc2fool, I thought that too and herpes and HIV were my go to examples but didn't comment as perhaps gryffron was referring to this specific virus, and I think that people either succumb or the virus is consumed by the immune system or dies out in the host - otherwise what would be the point of isolating and quarantine?

Ah, maybe so. I took the "any infection" to mean, well, any infection, not just covid, but maybe not....

[MDW1954]

Another of my stats.

Pfizer pay a firm called Weber Schneider to lobby gov to use their products.
Priti Patel used to work there
Now she advices gov to do what?

So many PM's seem to be major share holders in medical firms

Ooh are we doing politics in here now?!

No, just dealing in facts.

There isn't a firm called Weber Schneider. There *IS* a firm called Weber Shandwick, and yes, Priti Patel used to work there.

So much for "facts".

MDW1954

[stevensfo]

...Shh!

Lol just being mischievous, it's been a long day. Fixed a boiler in Shrewsbury today, 144 miles each way!

The owner of a boiler needed someone to come 144 miles to fix it?? Is there an ancient Anglo-Norman law in Shrewsbury that declares all boiler-fixers as outlaws to be hunted by the Sheriff's men?

Our boiler fixer lives just down the road. He's very good and is extremely honest. However, because of this, he is so busy that getting an appointment is not easy. We have to let him know at least a month before our boiler breaks down.

Rather like an appointment with the GP!

Steve

[NomoneyNohoney]

Lol just being mischievous, it's been a long day. Fixed a boiler in Shrewsbury today, 144 miles each way!

Your name is Dominic Cummins and I claim my - oh! Whoosh!

[Lootman]

Some people who have received the vaccine gain no benefit at all. This doesn't matter! As I keep pointing out on every single covid thread, the vaccine exists to protect society as a whole, NOT the individual. If it works for enough people, it reduces quantity of spread, R number, and eventually the disease will die out. Typical modern flu vaccines may directly benefit as few as 50%, but the reduction in R number this causes prevents those diseases spreading and thus benefits everyone.

True in the sense that the government doesn't really care whether you live or die, except as a statistic. So it wants you to get the jab to protect everyone else. But that is not why you get the jab - the motivation is to protect yourself. Any benefit to others is secondary for you but primary to the government.

It is similar to wearing a mask. You do it to protect yourself since, if you were already infected then you should not be mixing with others anyway. But the effect of everyone wearing a mask is to lower the general infection levels.

So the government utilises our innate selfishness to help save others. The irony is that if everyone else gets the jab, you would not need to. Just like if everyone else wears a mask, then you do not really need to.

[sunnyjoe]

...the government doesn't really care whether you live or die, except as a statistic. So it wants you to get the jab to protect everyone else. But that is not why you get the jab - the motivation is to protect yourself. Any benefit to others is secondary for you but primary to the government.

It is similar to wearing a mask. You do it to protect yourself...

Speak for yourself. I can do altruism

[swill453]

Yep, as a fit, healthy, young-at-heart, my desire to get a vaccine would be specifically to protect my elderly parents.

Trumped, of course, by a desire that they should get vaccinated before me.

Scott.

[dealtn]

Lol just being mischievous, it's been a long day. Fixed a boiler in Shrewsbury today, 144 miles each way!

Your name is Dominic Cummins and I claim my - oh! Whoosh!

Who?

[GrahamPlatt]

The serious disease problems occur when the virus reaches the lungs. This is also when maximum viral output is produced and maximum spread occurs. This is what kills you and/or spreads the disease very quickly to other members of the population. However, the lungs are surrounded by muscle, where the vaccine produced antibodies are, so for a vaccinated person, infection should be quickly defeated in the lungs, hence the disease either affects them minimally, or not at all.

Gryff

You were almost there, until you got to this part. It’s not the muscles that produce the antibodies, but white blood cells called B cells. The cells that get infected are the ones carrying the ace2 receptor (it’s this the spike protein latches onto to create the breach in the target cell’s membrane). That’s generally smooth muscle cells (not the skeletal muscle that the injection goes into). This “smooth” muscle, mostly in arterioles, gets infected and produces the spike protein (or, if infected by wild virus, more virus particles). The resulting inflammation caused by the death of the targeted, infected, (muscle) cells attracts B cells which recognise any “foreign” proteins (which if the process is the result of vaccination, will be pretty much only spike protein). The B cells produce the antibodies to the spike proteins which bind to and “deactivate” them.
The antibodies also go into the general circulation and provide immunity throughout the body. The reason the lungs & kidneys are particularly badly affected by this virus is that that’s where the ace2 receptors are concentrated. Lung also has smooth muscle wrapped around the bronchioles (the little tubules just before the alveoli, the respiratory units of the lungs). So the muscle isn’t “wrapped around the lung”, it’s interwoven with it.