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The vaccine

The home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
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This is the home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
redsturgeon
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Re: The vaccine

#397437

Postby redsturgeon » March 20th, 2021, 3:05 pm

Moderator Message:
Several posts deleted for getting too political for this board.

Arborbridge
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Re: The vaccine

#397446

Postby Arborbridge » March 20th, 2021, 3:48 pm

I asssume my post was one of those deleted, but oddly enough it wasn't actually political.

Moderator Message:
Actually yours was deleted for name calling which is against the rules of the site.
And responding to the political posts rather than reporting them.



Arb.

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Re: The vaccine

#397476

Postby tjh290633 » March 20th, 2021, 5:23 pm

88V8 wrote:
monabri wrote:...delivery of the Pfizer Biontec vaccine is dependent on them receiving a crucial material from Croda in Yorkshire. If the EU withholds vaccines then the UK might withhold supplies from Croda in retaliation.

And I heard on the wireless that the Moderna vaccine we have ordered will be vialled in Spain. Will it then be ambushed by the EU...

What seems to have been forgotten by the EU at the outset, is that politicians are elected in National elections, and many electorates will be well peed off by the current fiasco.
Vaccine nationalism? Like in India? Of course!!!!

In the UK, we really should have our own capacity to make & pack vaccines from start to finish, without depending on a supply chain that evaporates when push comes to shove.
Easily said of course, someone has to pay for capex that may stand largely idle for long periods.

V8

In the First World War much of the optical glass came from Germany, so the Government set up an organisation to set up manufacture in the UK. I believe that the principal source of Type 1 Neutral glass for vials is Schott in Germany

It would not take long to establish a source in the UK, should the need arise.

TJH

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Re: The vaccine

#397489

Postby zico » March 20th, 2021, 6:28 pm

Some data is out from Public Health England about the effects of the vaccination.
First of all, the first 2 weeks after a jab appear to have little effect in reducing your risk. It takes time.

After one jab, both vaccines are around 80% effective (based on those aged 80+ years, there's most data for this group).
"Effective" means "avoiding hospitalisation/death".
Another way to express the effect is that 1st jab vaccinated people are 4-5 times less likely to be hospitalised, and 5-6 times less likely to die.

Imagine 2 populations,
Population A (unvaccinated) has 100,000 over-80s, Population B (vaccinated) also has 100,00 over-80s.
(Assume 0.3% of each population potentially get Covid - this actual percentage doesn't matter, it's just to illustrate the situation.)

Population A (Unvac)
300 get Covid (0.3% x 100,000). 45 hospitalised. 40 die.

Population B (Vac)
60% reduction in chance of getting Covid, so
120 get Covid (0.3%x 100,000 x (100%-60%)), 10 hospitalised, 7 die.
(35-45% reduction in hospitalisation rates of those who get Covid)
(55% reduction in death rates)

As a comparison, seat belts & air-bags are 70% effective at preventing death from car accidents.
So, the vaccines are better than seat belts, but you still need to take care.

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Re: The vaccine

#397523

Postby Bouleversee » March 20th, 2021, 9:36 pm

tjh290633 wrote:
88V8 wrote:
monabri wrote:...delivery of the Pfizer Biontec vaccine is dependent on them receiving a crucial material from Croda in Yorkshire. If the EU withholds vaccines then the UK might withhold supplies from Croda in retaliation.

And I heard on the wireless that the Moderna vaccine we have ordered will be vialled in Spain. Will it then be ambushed by the EU...

What seems to have been forgotten by the EU at the outset, is that politicians are elected in National elections, and many electorates will be well peed off by the current fiasco.
Vaccine nationalism? Like in India? Of course!!!!

In the UK, we really should have our own capacity to make & pack vaccines from start to finish, without depending on a supply chain that evaporates when push comes to shove.
Easily said of course, someone has to pay for capex that may stand largely idle for long periods.

V8

In the First World War much of the optical glass came from Germany, so the Government set up an organisation to set up manufacture in the UK. I believe that the principal source of Type 1 Neutral glass for vials is Schott in Germany

It would not take long to establish a source in the UK, should the need arise.

TJH


Maybe you should substitute "should" for "would", Terry. The need for this was apparent to me quite some time ago. Now that we are not part of 'Europe, we need to reduce our dependency on Europe. Apart from the risks of dependency, which have rapidly become apparent, should we not for environmental reasons be trying to reduce the carbon effect of transporting goods between countries when we could perfectly well make them ourselves and provide jobs in the process?

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Re: The vaccine

#397531

Postby Bouleversee » March 20th, 2021, 10:09 pm

PinkDalek wrote:
gryffron wrote:How many had heard of Croda before?



As you asked and assuming that is Croda International plc, I have for a variety of reasons, not least they are listed.

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/stock/CRDA/croda-international-plc/company-page?lang=en


Even I have known for over 50 years that they are a chemical company in Goole, E. Yorks, with a very good reputation. I have toyed with the idea of buying their shares but never got around to it.

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Re: The vaccine

#397534

Postby Bouleversee » March 20th, 2021, 10:18 pm

Julian wrote:
jfgw wrote:
Julian wrote:I’m afraid I couldn’t remember the cryptic name for the Pfizer vaccine...


BNT162b2


Cheers,

Julian F. G. W.

Thanks Julian.

Here’s the SPC with essentially the same caveat as I quoted from the AZ SPC...

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... _0_UK_.pdf

Of course these things can get updated. There’s probably a live database somewhere that I don’t know about.

- (another) Julian


I was told it hadn't been when I had my 2nd Pfizer jab and was asked if I wanted another copy. These things take time.

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Re: The vaccine

#397648

Postby vagrantbrain » March 21st, 2021, 1:14 pm

Has anyone considered that the census is just a way to quality check the data from the tracking chips in the Gates super vaccine? Stopping at the half-way point would be a logical point to perform an audit to ensure they're working correctly. Any coincidence there was a record number of vaccinations last week to ensure we got to 50% of the adults before Census day?? Now there's a slowdown due to "supply issues" - more like a pause to allow the chips to be refined following the results of the Census before they vaccinate the other 50% of the population.

I would say more but they're watching me and nurse is coming.....

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Re: The vaccine

#397653

Postby Julian » March 21st, 2021, 2:20 pm

Bouleversee wrote:
Julian wrote:
jfgw wrote:
BNT162b2


Cheers,

Julian F. G. W.

Thanks Julian.

Here’s the SPC with essentially the same caveat as I quoted from the AZ SPC...

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... _0_UK_.pdf

Of course these things can get updated. There’s probably a live database somewhere that I don’t know about.

- (another) Julian


I was told it hadn't been when I had my 2nd Pfizer jab and was asked if I wanted another copy. These things take time.

I very much doubt that it would have been the SPC that you were being offered a copy of though, it's the PIL that is the "end user" documentation hence I assume that is what they were offering you a second copy of. That's basically the vaccine's version of the folded up bit of paper with instructions on it that you get inside every box of Asprin, Paracetamol, anti-histamine, topical steroid etc that you might buy in a shop, or any prescription medicine that you might get dispensed from a chemist. The SPC is the prescriber documentation and as such is to me the more interesting of the two documents since it's not aimed at the lay person.

I was out with one of my pharma friends on Friday and was quizzing her a lot on pharmacovigilance, I really should have asked about change control on PILs & SPCs as well. I've certainly vicariously (through her) lived through the development and signoff of the initial versions of quite a few PILSs and SPCs - a lot of angst and attention to detail tends to be involved from what I've experienced second hand regarding that process, but that's only for the initial version submitted as part of the approval process. I really have no idea how change control is handled post-approval (or in this case post emergency authorisation use) but given the rigour regarding the development of the original document I suspect the process of making changes is pretty rigorous and well controlled as well, both for the PIL and the SPC.

- Julian

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Re: The vaccine

#397656

Postby XFool » March 21st, 2021, 2:38 pm

vagrantbrain wrote:Has anyone considered that the census is just a way to quality check the data from the tracking chips in the Gates super vaccine? Stopping at the half-way point would be a logical point to perform an audit to ensure they're working correctly. Any coincidence there was a record number of vaccinations last week to ensure we got to 50% of the adults before Census day?? Now there's a slowdown due to "supply issues" - more like a pause to allow the chips to be refined following the results of the Census before they vaccinate the other 50% of the population.

I would say more but they're watching me and nurse is coming.....

You on ADVFN?

:lol:

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Re: The vaccine

#397674

Postby Mike4 » March 21st, 2021, 3:57 pm

vagrantbrain wrote:Has anyone considered that the census is just a way to quality check the data from the tracking chips in the Gates super vaccine? Stopping at the half-way point would be a logical point to perform an audit to ensure they're working correctly. Any coincidence there was a record number of vaccinations last week to ensure we got to 50% of the adults before Census day?? Now there's a slowdown due to "supply issues" - more like a pause to allow the chips to be refined following the results of the Census before they vaccinate the other 50% of the population.

I would say more but they're watching me and nurse is coming.....



I disagree with all of this, It cannot be true. Mainly because that Gates super vaccine is still awaiting approval for emergency use AFAIK, and everybody is getting the Pfizer or OxAZ instead.

The other problem with putting chips in the vaccine is making batteries small enough. Even those really tiny 'button cells' are too big, I reckon.

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Re: The vaccine

#397707

Postby scrumpyjack » March 21st, 2021, 5:54 pm

Amazing scale of vaccinations, 873,784 in one day!

"The UK's vaccine record was once again broken yesterday, the Department for Health has confirmed, with 873,784 vaccinations registered.

This breaks down into 686,424 first doses and 70,449 second doses in England; 59,415 first doses and 13,160 second doses in Scotland; 26,939 first doses and 9,429 second doses in Wales; and 4,785 first doses and 3,183 second doses in Northern Ireland.

Yesterday's figures also represent a record amount of first doses in the UK, as well as a record number of doses overall.

The total of 873,784 jabs means that an estimated 1.3 per cent of the UK's population received a vaccine dose in the space of just one day."

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Re: The vaccine

#397708

Postby Bouleversee » March 21st, 2021, 6:00 pm

Julian wrote:
Bouleversee wrote:
Julian wrote:Thanks Julian.

Here’s the SPC with essentially the same caveat as I quoted from the AZ SPC...

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... _0_UK_.pdf

Of course these things can get updated. There’s probably a live database somewhere that I don’t know about.

- (another) Julian


I was told it hadn't been when I had my 2nd Pfizer jab and was asked if I wanted another copy. These things take time.


I very much doubt that it would have been the SPC that you were being offered a copy of though, it's the PIL that is the "end user" documentation hence I assume that is what they were offering you a second copy of. That's basically the vaccine's version of the folded up bit of paper with instructions on it that you get inside every box of Asprin, Paracetamol, anti-histamine, topical steroid etc that you might buy in a shop, or any prescription medicine that you might get dispensed from a chemist. The SPC is the prescriber documentation and as such is to me the more interesting of the two documents since it's not aimed at the lay person.

I was out with one of my pharma friends on Friday and was quizzing her a lot on pharmacovigilance, I really should have asked about change control on PILs & SPCs as well. I've certainly vicariously (through her) lived through the development and signoff of the initial versions of quite a few PILSs and SPCs - a lot of angst and attention to detail tends to be involved from what I've experienced second hand regarding that process, but that's only for the initial version submitted as part of the approval process. I really have no idea how change control is handled post-approval (or in this case post emergency authorisation use) but given the rigour regarding the development of the original document I suspect the process of making changes is pretty rigorous and well controlled as well, both for the PIL and the SPC.

- Julian


You are correct; it was the PIL but it was a 4 x A4 page doc. and contained information about storage etc. which can't have been aimed at the patients. I assumed that both types would have been updated at the same time if there had been any update.

I notice that both SPCs say the vaccine must not be administered subcutaneously but I heard a medical expert in this field (retired I think) say on Any Answers yesterday that that is how it should be administered in order to save a huge amount of vaccine.
The information from Norway yesterday implied that they think the AZN vaccine has caused both clotting and haemorrhaging which is hard to understand unless patients have not been asked whether they are on blood thinning medication (which the leaflet implies they should be) or have thrombophilia which doesn't seem to get a mention. They seem to be concerned about the risk of bleeding rather than clotting.

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Re: The vaccine

#398045

Postby simoan » March 22nd, 2021, 5:44 pm

vagrantbrain wrote:Has anyone considered that the census is just a way to quality check the data from the tracking chips in the Gates super vaccine? Stopping at the half-way point would be a logical point to perform an audit to ensure they're working correctly. Any coincidence there was a record number of vaccinations last week to ensure we got to 50% of the adults before Census day?? Now there's a slowdown due to "supply issues" - more like a pause to allow the chips to be refined following the results of the Census before they vaccinate the other 50% of the population.

I would say more but they're watching me and nurse is coming.....

Well, serves you right, you should know better than to wear that tin foil hat :-)

All the best, Si

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Re: The vaccine

#399311

Postby moorfield » March 26th, 2021, 5:35 pm

moorfield wrote:"normality" will be a long drawn out process I suspect. I drew the analogy of the phasing out of wartime rationing recently (*), I think we will still be here discussing covid in two years' time ... Certainly I would expect "tiers" and furlough to have been dropped; and office, schools, universities to be planning full returns by the summer. "Stadium events" may take longer, and international travel longer still. Does "normality" include clearing the backlog of all the cancelled and postponed health appointments? (And does it include clearing what we can't see - the national debt - which will take a generation to do and quite possibly a one-off windfall tax on all of us.) Masks and hand gels are here to stay, I hope at the very least out of good personal hygiene habits, some venues may continue to insist on them, some won't.



https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... laims.html

Masks and social distancing could be in place for 10 YEARS - as long as Britain endured rationing after the Second World War, Lord Sumption claims


Remember Lord Sumption, you read that here first. 8-)

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Re: The vaccine

#399739

Postby Julian » March 28th, 2021, 12:21 pm

I've seen reports in the last few days about booster jabs tweaked for the variants of concern (presumably those carrying the E484K mutation e.g. South African and Brazilian variants) being given to the over 70s starting from September this year. This is just one of many media reports on that - https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-boo ... r-12257968

This got me thinking about the ordering for the rollout of the booster jabs. Should it be the same totally sequential (in theory) walk through each of the priority groups 1 to 9 in turn?

It looks as if against the SA and Brazin strains the Pfizer vaccine, and the Moderna vaccine due on our shores in about 3 weeks apparently, do at least show some 50% or above efficacy even against mild to moderate disease (as does the the J&J and I think others such as Novavax) whereas the AZ vaccine seems to show pretty much zero efficacy against mild to moderate disease which as I understand it probably also means little to no efficacy against blocking transmission. Based on immunological theory (that might be contentious amongst immunologists, I have no idea) it is thought that the efficacy of the AZ vaccine against hospitalisations and deaths arising from the E484K-carrying variants won't be totally destroyed and should still be there, maybe even still quite strongly, but the actual efficacy there is to my knowledge totally unmeasured in any meaningful clinical trial or observational study so is unknown in practice.

Given the serious concerns and unknowns regarding specifically the AZ vaccine and the efficacy it retains against the more troublesome E484K-carrying variants I wonder whether, in administering boosters, at some point in working down through the priority groups it might make sense to also factor in what vaccine you had originally. For instance maybe all the over 70s do "unconditionally" get the booster ASAP but once that is done maybe for the rest of the adult population it would be better for overall population protection to work down through the priority groups in two passes, on the first pass only administering boosters to the people in each priority group who had the AZ vaccine the first time and then come back to do a second pass through the under 70s to administer boosters to the people whose initial vaccinations were with the Pfizer/Moderna etc vaccines.

Even if that was felt to be immunologically and epidemiologically sensible I can see a huge political issue with doing that which is that it could very easily be seen as a very visible and explicit admission that the AZ vaccine is not as good as the Pfizer, Moderna and probably a few other vaccines out there. Sadly though, from what I am reading, the truth about the AZ vaccine seems to be that against the original strain and even the Kent B.1.1.7 variant it is just as good as for instance the Pfizer vaccine yet against the newer E484K-carrying variants it simply is not as good when it comes to efficacy against mild and moderate disease with the efficacy against hospitalisation and death totally unknown.

I've had the AZ vaccine (first dose) and as long as these E484K-carrying variants remain relatively rare and controlled in the UK I'm perfectly happy with that especially a few weeks after I have had my second dose but if the SA or some other E484K-carrying variant becomes widespread in the UK I would go back to feeling quite significantly unprotected until I'd had a booster that demonstrated good efficacy against whatever new variant(s) had become widespread in the UK.

Thoughts?

- Julian

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Re: The vaccine

#399749

Postby Mike4 » March 28th, 2021, 12:35 pm

Julian wrote:
I've had the AZ vaccine (first dose) and as long as these E484K-carrying variants remain relatively rare and controlled in the UK I'm perfectly happy with that especially a few weeks after I have had my second dose but if the SA or some other E484K-carrying variant becomes widespread in the UK I would go back to feeling quite significantly unprotected until I'd had a booster that demonstrated good efficacy against whatever new variant(s) had become widespread in the UK.

Thoughts?

- Julian


This is exactly how I see it too, but when I posted about the need to keep SA variant out of the UK for exactly the reasons you set out, I got slated by two other posters for being negative and told I should unquestioningly suck up the relentless Good News propaganda in the media on the vaccine front.

If the SA variant gets established here in the 50m or so population here with no protection against it, as seems probable to me, I too will feel back to square one and needing to socially distance, wear a mask, etc etc.

Edit to add:
Did you listen to the excellent BBC World Service prog on this exact subject? https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3cszcpg

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Re: The vaccine

#399762

Postby vrdiver » March 28th, 2021, 1:26 pm

There have been lots of numbers bandied about, about how effective the various vaccines are against the various variants, but all that's happened is that I'm now somewhat confused about what level of protection the vaccines are able to offer.

Does anybody have data on how effective the vaccines are on stopping hospitalisation and/or death for the current variants? I'm not worried about the chances of being infected if the outcome of the infection doesn't require hospitalisation. I'm not worried about levels of protection on day 3 after the first jab, or any of the "work in progress" numbers (e.g. vaccine "X" is 60% effective after 19 days) since these are transitory; I'm more interested in the situation likely to be faced a couple of months after the second dose has been administered, as that is where most of the (adult) population will be, come Winter.

I've said I'm not worried about effectively being a carrier, but obviously that has two downsides; the risk of transmission to somebody who turns out to be vulnerable, and the increasing odds of an unpleasant mutation if there is a large population of the virus still circulating. For the moment I'll ignore these but may come back to them later.

VRD

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Re: The vaccine

#399775

Postby Julian » March 28th, 2021, 1:47 pm

vrdiver wrote:There have been lots of numbers bandied about, about how effective the various vaccines are against the various variants, but all that's happened is that I'm now somewhat confused about what level of protection the vaccines are able to offer.

Does anybody have data on how effective the vaccines are on stopping hospitalisation and/or death for the current variants? I'm not worried about the chances of being infected if the outcome of the infection doesn't require hospitalisation. I'm not worried about levels of protection on day 3 after the first jab, or any of the "work in progress" numbers (e.g. vaccine "X" is 60% effective after 19 days) since these are transitory; I'm more interested in the situation likely to be faced a couple of months after the second dose has been administered, as that is where most of the (adult) population will be, come Winter.
...
VRD

There's pretty encouraging and comprehensive data for the efficacy of the Pfizer and AZ vaccines against hospitalisation and death (and also against any symptomatic infection) in the current UK environment, i.e. against predominantly the original and the B.1.1.7 strains. That's in the analyses that were done in Scotland and separately in England looking at outcomes for people who had had at least the first dose and the numbers looked really good. Sorry, I have to get on to another task right now so don't have time to re-Google for the links but maybe someone else can provide them or I will later if I can find them again (I really should bookmark some of this stuff).

I seem to remember that, although predominately first-dose-only data due to our extended dosing interval, there was I think at least some data on Pfizer two-dose efficacy but I might be wrong about that. In any case, with the mechanisms in place to collect and analyse this data (essentially tying up vaccination records with testing data) and already having been used to produce the first observational studies we can be very confident I think that credible data based on very large cohorts will be forthcoming in the not too distant future that captures both-doses efficacy data for both the Pfizer and AZ vaccines against the variants currently widely encountered in the UK which I believe is now mostly the B.1.1.7 variant.

- Julian

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Re: The vaccine

#399785

Postby Nimrod103 » March 28th, 2021, 2:01 pm

Seeing as most vaccines are targetting the same spike proteins, as present on the intial virus, one must surely assume they have similar effectiveness against the original virus, and similar reduced effectiveness against the Brazil/RSA variants?

I have seen many comments (and a very little evidence) about the OxAZ vaccine having a lowered effect against the Brazil/RSA variants, but I cannot recall seeing any comments or data regarding the effectiveness of Pfizer or Moderna.


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